prompt string | outcome int64 | market_price float64 | domain string | source string | market_id string | horizon_days float64 | prediction_date string | resolution_date string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will NASA land a person on the Moon before 2026?
Background: If an announcement indicates that a manned NASA mission landed on the Moon after Issuance and by December 31, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on official data by 2026-01-01.
Current market price: 0.09
Price history: 60d ago: 0.08, 30d ago: 0.09, 14d ago: 0.10, 7d ago: 0.09, 3d ago: 0.09, 1d ago: 0.09
Time until resolution: 568 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2024-06-09] Trading Desk Notes For June 8 , 2024 (howestreet.com)
June 8, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For June 8, 2024
Check your old-school assumptions at the door
Market sentiment has been oscillating between believing that “higher for longer” is 1) dead or 2) will be indefinitely sustained. The oscillation frequency has shrunk from months (during the October to February period) to days (since mid-April), and this week, sentiment swung from pillar to post between Monday and Friday as different headline employment metrics painted dramatically different pictures
[2024-05-30] Big stars come out for Biden – but much of Hollywood wrestles with 2024 endorsements in a polarized world (abc17news.com)
Big stars come out for Biden – but much of Hollywood wrestles with 2024 endorsements in a polarized world
By Priscilla Alvarez and Elizabeth Wagmeister, CNN
(CNN) — The Biden campaign is trotting out big names to deliver their message to voters, but leading up to the 2024 election, many in Hollywood are wary of jumping into the fray amid a hyper-divisive political landscape, multiple sources told CNN.
CNN spoke with a dozen publicists, agents and political strategists who are advising celebritie
[2024-05-16] Mortgage Interest Rates Today , May 16 , 2024 | Rates Drop to 5 - Week Low As Inflation Cools (businessinsider.com)
- Mortgage rates have increased recently due to economic uncertainty.
- In April, 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.71%, up from the previous month.
- Experts predict rates will slightly decrease in 2025, but it depends on how the economy evolves.
As rates go down, more people should be able to buy a home or refinance their current mortgage. See how home interest rates are trending today and where they might go in the future.
Today's mortgage rates
Mortgage rates are expected to go down this yea
[2024-02-22] AP News in Brief at 12 : 04 a . m . EST (toronto.citynews.ca)
AP News in Brief at 11:04 p.m. EST
Posted February 22, 2024 12:04 am.
Last Updated February 22, 2024 11:12 pm.
Private lander makes first US moon landing in more than 50 years
CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. (AP) — A private lander on Thursday made the first U.S. touchdown on the moon in more than 50 years, but managed just a weak signal back until flight controllers scrambled to gain better contact.
Despite the spotty communication, Intuitive Machines, the company that built and managed the craft, confirm
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.09 | ai_sector | kalshi | kalshi:MOON-25DEC31 | 568.4 | 2024-06-11 | 2026-01-01 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will Apple announce a foldable phone by Dec 31, 2025?
Background: If Apple has announced a foldable phone by Dec 31, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on official data by 2026-01-01.
Current market price: 0.45
Price history: 7d ago: 0.27, 3d ago: 0.45, 1d ago: 0.45
Time until resolution: 512 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2024-08-01] What up with … Telecom Italia , Cellnex , Amazon & Nokia , Access Evolution (telecomtv.com)
- The ‘new’ Telecom Italia eyes further M&A deals as it reports Q2 growth
- Cellnex ramps up sales and earnings as it preps more divestments
- Amazon takes Nokia to court
In today’s industry news roundup: The slimmed-down Telecom Italia has reported an encouraging set of second-quarter numbers as it closes in on further asset sale deals; European towers firm Cellnex is also growing steadily as it continues with its portfolio adjustment strategy; Amazon is suing Nokia over the alleged misuse of i
[2024-08-04] iPhone 16 release unaffected by Apple Intelligence rollout delays (appleinsider.com)
Although the much-touted Apple Intelligence features will only begin showing up weeks after the initial release of iOS 18, Apple reportedly has no plans to delay releasing its annual update of the iPhone 16.
Bloomberg's Mark Gurman notes that the first of the Apple Intelligence features only appeared in the first developer beta of iOS 18.1, rather than being included in the original betas. The company, in its original presentation on iOS 18, separated the base features most models of iPhone woul
[2024-07-30] Apple Intelligence wont be complete until 2025 but one Siri upgrade will arrive before then (tomsguide.com)
Apple Intelligence won't be complete until 2025 — but one Siri upgrade will arrive before then
Soon Siri will get to know you more personally
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[2024-07-24] Apple Intelligence release date : When to expect iOS 18 AI features to launch (9to5mac.com)
Apple is prepping for one of its biggest software launches ever with iOS 18. A major component of new OS updates for the iPhone, Mac, and iPad is Apple Intelligence. Apple’s suite of AI features are not yet included in the developer or public betas. So when will they arrive?
Here’s when to expect Apple Intelligence to release.
Preview of Apple Intelligence for beta testers: this summer
Apple will release Apple Intelligence as a special preview for beta testers this summer.
The company’s develope
[2024-06-09] Trading Desk Notes For June 8 , 2024 (howestreet.com)
June 8, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For June 8, 2024
Check your old-school assumptions at the door
Market sentiment has been oscillating between believing that “higher for longer” is 1) dead or 2) will be indefinitely sustained. The oscillation frequency has shrunk from months (during the October to February period) to days (since mid-April), and this week, sentiment swung from pillar to post between Monday and Friday as different headline employment metrics painted dramatically different pictures
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.45 | mna_corporate | kalshi | kalshi:APPLEFOLD-25DEC31 | 512.5 | 2024-08-06 | 2026-01-01 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: OpenAI becomes a for-profit before April 2025?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI shifts from its current capped-profit corporation structure to a for-profit model by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any form of fully for-profit organization—including a Benefit Corporation (B-Corp), Public Benefit Corporation (PBC), or a modification to its existing structure to remove profit caps—will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
If the OpenAI non-profit relinquishes control over the for-profit business, this will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
An announcement indicating that OpenAI is merely considering the shift will not suffice; the change must officially occur.
The primary resolution source will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-03-31.
Current market price: 0.63
Price history: 14d ago: 0.74, 7d ago: 0.70, 3d ago: 0.64, 1d ago: 0.59
Time until resolution: 168 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2024-10-11] Google CEO Sundar Pichai Says Itll Appeal Antitrust Ruling (businessinsider.com)
- Google plans to appeal a federal judge's antitrust ruling, CEO Sundar Pichai said.
- DOJ remedies could force Google to break up or reorganize, impacting other Big Tech firms.
- The appeals process could make the case take years to resolve.
Google is preparing for a yearslong fight to appeal a federal judge's antitrust ruling against the company.
Google CEO Sundar Pichai appeared on Bloomberg's "The David Rubenstein Show," where he spoke publicly about Google's search engine antitrust case for
[2024-10-08] 10 Trending AI Stocks in October - Insider Monkey (insidermonkey.com)
In this article, we will take a detailed look at 10 Trending AI Stocks in October.
Tom Lee, Fundstrat co-founder, while talking to CNBC in a latest program, explained his bullish case for the market and why he believes the S&P 500 is headed to close the year “well beyond” 5,700.
“Bull markets are supported by a strong fundamentals and this is a case where not only has the economy survivie extremely high interest rates but the Fed is beginning to cut rates, and an economy that has been sort of la
[2024-09-22] Sundar Pichai announces $120 million Global AI Opportunity Fund (prokerala.com)
New York, Sep 22 : Alphabet and Google CEO Sundar Pichai has announced a $120 million 'Global AI Opportunity Fund' at the UN Summit of the Future in the US.
Pichai said that the initiative will invest "one hundred and twenty million dollars to make AI education and training available in communities around the world. We're providing this in local languages, in partnership with nonprofits and NGOs".
Leaders from around the world have gathered for the 79th United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in
[2024-09-24] Billionaire Stan Druckenmiller Is Selling Nvidia , Apple , and Microsoft , and Buying These High - Yield Dividend Stocks Instead (fool.com)
Stan Druckenmiller saw the potential for the next wave of artificial intelligence fairly early. That led him to take a big position in Nvidia in the fourth quarter of 2022. He added Microsoft in the first quarter of 2023, after it upped its stake in generative AI leader OpenAI. At the start of this year, he started taking gains on his Nvidia investment and put some into Apple.
But Druckenmiller has quickly changed his tune on the three biggest companies in the world. He sold shares of Nvidia, Ap
[2024-02-18] OpenAI valued at $80B after deal : report (foxbusiness.com)
OpenAI valued at $80B after deal: report
OpenAI's tender offer reportedly values the firm at $90 billion after a similar deal last year valued it at $29 billion
OpenAI, the Microsoft-backed artificial intelligence (AI) company, completed a deal that values the firm at $80 billion or more, according to a new report.
The New York Times reported on Friday, citing people with knowledge of the deal, that OpenAI would sell shares in a tender offer led by venture capital firm Thrive Capital.
Under the
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.63 | ai_sector | polymarket | 508190 | 167.9 | 2024-10-14 | 2025-03-31 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: U.S. recession before May 2025?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2024 or later, with the announcement made between September 25, 2024, and April 30, 2025, inclusive. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-04-30.
Current market price: 0.17
Price history: 30d ago: 0.23, 14d ago: 0.16, 7d ago: 0.21, 3d ago: 0.17, 1d ago: 0.17
Time until resolution: 181 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2024-10-30] Today Mortgage Rates , October 30 , 2024 | Rates Are Trending up (businessinsider.com)
- Mortgage rates have increased recently due to economic uncertainty.
- In April, 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.71%, up from the previous month.
- Experts predict rates will slightly decrease in 2025, but it depends on how the economy evolves.
As rates go down, more people should be able to buy a home or refinance their current mortgage. See how home interest rates are trending today and where they might go in the future.
Today's mortgage rates
Mortgage rates are expected to go down this yea
[2024-10-30] Scotiabank chief economist on where housing prices , interest rates and the economy are heading (theglobeandmail.com)
How swift of an economic rebound can we expect in Canada, and what might it mean for interest rates? These are key questions that will come into greater focus for investors as 2025 nears.
Forecasts for Canadian economic growth are mixed for the upcoming year, ranging from 1.3 per cent to 2.1 per cent at the Big Five banks. Scotiabank is leading the pack with 2.1-per-cent growth anticipated for 2025, matching the Bank of Canada’s expectations.
The Globe and Mail recently spoke with Scotiabank’s c
[2024-10-04] Fed close to pulling off the elusive economic soft landing in 2024 after great September jobs report (cnbc.com)
September's outsized payrolls boost takes the U.S. economy out of the shadows of recession and gives the Federal Reserve a fairly open glide path to a soft landing.
If that sounds like a Goldilocks scenario, it's probably not far from it, even with the lingering inflation concerns that are straining consumers' wallets.
A gravity-defying jobs market, at least a slowing pace of price increases and declining interest rates puts the macro picture in a pretty good place right now — a critical time fr
[2024-10-04] A Recession ? Not Likely With This Job Market (investopedia.com)
Table of Contents Expand Table of Contents Recession Fears Had Flared Up Recently Some Warning Signs Remain Jobs Growth, Low Inflation Bode Well for Economy A Recession? Not Likely With This Job Market By Diccon Hyatt Full Bio Diccon Hyatt is an experienced financial and economics reporter. He's written hundreds of articles breaking down complex financial topics in plain language, emphasizing the impact that economic currents would have on individuals' finances and the market. He has a Bachelor'
[2024-08-23] Will the stock market rally or crash in 2025 ? Im prepared for anything ! (fool.co.uk)
Less than a month ago, fears of a recession were sending ripples through global stock markets. But after a minor dip earlier this month, prices bounced back stronger than ever.
Now, major banks and brokers think a recession in 2024 is unlikely. So does that mean we could see a fresh rally emerge in 2025? Anything is possible!
So I’ve added two new shares to my portfolio: one defensive, and one that could benefit from a market recovery.
The safe(r) option
I may be feeling positive about the direc
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.17 | fed_macro | polymarket | 508169 | 180.9 | 2024-10-31 | 2025-04-30 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Price of eggs goes up in Trump's first month?
Background: This market is on the price of eggs, (Grade A, Large, Cost per Dozen) as measured by the the Bureau of Labor Statistics (see: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of eggs, is higher in the Month of February 2025 than in January 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No“.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm) for February 2025 currently scheduled to be released on March 12, 2025.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-04-12.
Current market price: 0.52
Price history: 3d ago: 0.51, 1d ago: 0.52
Time until resolution: 147 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2024-11-14] How Inflation Will Likely Play Out Under Trump 2nd Term (investing.com)
Macquarie updates 2026 outlook for gold and silver. Here are the new targets
On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for October. Following the trend of the last three months, the inflation rate increased 0.2% on a monthly basis. Annually, the consumer prices for all items increased by 2.6% vs 2.4% in September, which is in line with expectations.
The core CPI (excluding more volatile food and energy) increased 3.3% on a yearly basis, wh
[2024-11-15] Bitcoin price can hit $100K by Thanksgiving if bulls hold key level (cointelegraph.com)
Bitcoin circled key local lows on Nov. 15 as bulls swapped all-time highs for support retests.
Bitcoin cools as US PPI sparks stagflation talk
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed a Bitcoin (BTC) price dip below $87,000 into the daily close.
After notching new all-time highs on Nov. 13, $90,000 and above remained out of reach as support as the market returned to consolidate lower.
The latest United States inflation data, the October print of the Producer Price Index (PPI),
[2024-11-08] Stock market next week : Outlook for November 11 - 15 , 2024 (cnbc.com)
Inflation data in the week ahead could determine whether a stock market that surged to all-time highs after Donald Trump 's decisive victory can continue to push higher. The October consumer and producer prices data are set to release Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates this week by a quarter percentage point in what was a widely anticipated move. A cooler inflation print that confirms the central bank can continue its easing cycle will support a st
[2024-11-06] Crypto prices rise on Election Day as investors anticipate outcome (foxla.com)
Crypto prices rise on Election Day as investors anticipate outcome
Cryptocurrency prices climbed on Tuesday amid a broader market rise as investors anticipate the outcome of the U.S. election.
Major cryptocurrencies saw prices increase on Election Day ahead of results being announced later in the day. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) based off of crypto assets also rose during Tuesday's trading.
Bitcoin was up more than 2.3% as of Tuesday afternoon at a price of $69,402 after having surpassed the $7
[2024-03-31] How It Started ... How It Going : Price of eggs , chocolate remain higher than usual amid Easter festivities (foxbusiness.com)
Price of eggs, chocolate remain higher than usual amid Easter festivities
Emily Metz, president and CEO of the American Egg Board, told Fox Business '3 billion eggs' are estimated to be consumed this season
Inflation and other factors related to the U.S. economy continue to wreak havoc on Americans, and the price of Easter essentials, including eggs, chocolate and candy, remains at near-historic highs.
The average price for a dozen grade A eggs in cities throughout the United States sat at aroun
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 1 | 0.515 | fed_macro | polymarket | 512895 | 147.4 | 2024-11-16 | 2025-04-12 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: X and Truth Social merger announced before August?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if if is officially announced that that X (formerly Twitter) and Truth Social, or if X or its parent company Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) have agreed to merge, by July 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The announcement must indicate that the two organizations have agreed to combine their operations. This could be a legal merger where they form one entity, a joint venture, or an acquisition of one by the other.
An official announcement before the end date of an X/Truth Social merger will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if or when the merger actually occurs, however statements merely suggesting that a merger/acquisition may occur or which express intent will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official statements from X and/or Truth Social/Trump Media & Technology Group, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-07-31.
Current market price: 0.18
Price history: 7d ago: 0.20, 3d ago: 0.18, 1d ago: 0.19
Time until resolution: 252 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2024-11-15] What Happens When China Realizes It Has No Option But To Stimulate ? (zerohedge.com)
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[2024-11-14] CIA Analyst Who Leaked Israel Sensitive Iran War Plans Allegedly Donated to Dems (townhall.com)
Israel was supposed to launch retaliatory strikes against Iran. They never came. Days and weeks have passed, and it’s clear why the airstrikes, marketed as unprecedented and lethal, were halted. Someone leaked the plans for the strikes. It came from the Pentagon last October. Now, we’ve learned of the individual who was part of this breach: His name is Asif W. Rahman. Mr. Rahman, a CIA official, was arrested in Cambodia on Tuesday and flown to Guam, where he faces Espionage Act charges. This man
[2024-11-05] Trump Media Watershed Moment Arrives as Voters Hit Polls (livemint.com)
The case for owning shares in Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. boils down to the political fortunes of its namesake. Going by that, the moment of truth for the loss-making social media site has arrived as Americans head to the polls Tuesday.
Listen to the Here’s Why podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere you listen.
Trump Media has swung wildly in recent months as it loosely tracked election betting markets ahead of the US presidential election. They spiked higher after the attempted assassin
[2024-10-25] Google Hit With Probe Over Allegation of Censoring Conservatives (newsweek.com)
Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey has launched an investigation into Google on Thursday, claiming that the tech giant is censoring conservative speech.
Bailey announced the probe on X (formerly Twitter), claiming Google is "waging war on the democratic process" and told Fox Business that the search engine is manipulating results to "de-emphasize information about the Trump campaign prior to Election Day."
"I am launching an investigation into Google—the biggest search engine in America—for
[2024-09-19] Truth Social reaches a tricky milestone . Will Donald Trump cash out his stake ? (wqcs.org)
Trump Media's future is becoming even more uncertain.
The parent company of Truth Social, the social media company majority-owned by former president Donald Trump, is turning a complicated corner on Thursday. A lockup on insider sales is due to expire—meaning that Trump could start cashing in his 57% stake, which is currently valued at about $2 billion.
Shares in Trump Media fell more than 4% on Thursday morning, at one point hitting an all-time low of $14.77. The share price is down nearly 80%
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.185 | mna_corporate | polymarket | 512812 | 252.5 | 2024-11-20 | 2025-07-31 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Trump imposes 40% tariff on China in first 100 days?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action enacting a general 40% or greater tariff on imports in to the United States from the People's Republic of China by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 40% or greater tariff on imports in to the United States from People's Republic of China is enacted.
Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect.
If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-04-29.
Current market price: 0.16
Price history: 1d ago: 0.15
Time until resolution: 158 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2024-11-19] Mel Gurtov : Donald Trump has never met a tariff that he didnt like (augustafreepress.com)
Donald Trump thinks the world of tariffs. “Tariffs are the greatest thing ever invented,” Trump said in September at a town hall event in Michigan. On another occasion he said “tariff” is the most beautiful word in the English language.
Hmm. And he really has had a love affair with tariffs. After all, they mark his entry into national politics. Back in the mid-1980s, his one big gripe was the trade deficit with Japan. Then China became the target, and while president, Trump kept raising tariffs
[2024-11-17] Will the antitrust showdown launched under Biden turn into Let Make A Deal under Trump ? (newsday.com)
Will the antitrust showdown launched under Biden turn into 'Let's Make A Deal' under Trump?
SAN FRANCISCO — The U.S. antitrust watchdogs that pounced on Big Tech and deterred corporate deal making throughout President Joe Biden's administration may be kept on a shorter leash by Donald Trump after he returns to the White House next year.
Although regulators began cracking down on tech powerhouses such as Google and Facebook during Trump's first term as president, most experts expect his second ad
[2024-10-30] Trump tariffs and China | Big Lychee , Various Sectors (biglychee.com)
Trying to ignore US election forecasts. The media want a knife-edge cliff-hanger so badly that the coverage would fit better in the sports pages, and pollsters’ credibility is pretty much exhausted.
I’m also still unable to fathom how more than, say, 20% of voters could be so debased, unhappy and/or ignorant that they will back someone who – among other things – is clearly owned by Vladimir Putin and infantile tech billionaires. (One Trump-voter I know moans that ‘we don’t know who Kamala is’.)
[2024-11-12] Experts say Trump threatened China tariffs could actually help Beijing weather an economic storm (cbsnews.com)
Experts say Trump's threatened China tariffs could actually help Beijing weather an economic storm
Hong Kong — President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to slap up a tariff of up to 60% on all goods imported to the U.S. from China. While that may sound like a potent economic threat to a country where economic growth is already faltering, could it actually be just what China needs?
"I do expect U.S.-China economic relations to be more volatile under Trump, but I think overall, this may turn out
[2024-02-05] Donald Trump Views on Xi Jinping and Potential Trade Tariffs | World News (timesofindia.indiatimes.com)
NEW DELHI: Former US President
Donald Trump reiterated his praise for Chinese President
Xi Jinping, while also signaling a potential intensification of economic pressures on China by proposing an increase in tariffs on Chinese imports beyond 60 percent if he returns to office.
Responding to inquiries, during an interview on Fox News, about escalating the trade conflict with China and the possibility of a 60 percent tariff hike, Trump clarified, "No" but expressed willingness to consider even hig
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 1 | 0.16 | tariffs | polymarket | 513494 | 158 | 2024-11-22 | 2025-04-29 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will Trump remove Jerome Powell in first 100 days?
Background: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to be the Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve for any period of time between January 20, 2025 ET (inclusive) and April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-04-29.
Current market price: 0.09
Price history: 14d ago: 0.07, 7d ago: 0.09, 3d ago: 0.09, 1d ago: 0.09
Time until resolution: 154 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2024-11-22] Trump should fire Jerome Powell | The Highland County Press (highlandcountypress.com)
Trump should fire Jerome Powell
By Ryan Silverstein
Real Clear Wire
Legacy media have been obsessing over whether President-elect Donald Trump can remove Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve (the Fed). Jerome Powell recently came out and stated he would serve out his term – which ends in 2026. Further, Chairman Powell claims any attempt by President Trump to remove him is not “permitted under the law.” Unfortunately for Chairman Powell, President-elect Trump can remove him – and he sho
[2024-11-20] Trump Demands Immediate Dismissal of Hush - Money Case (businessinsider.com)
- Lawyers for Donald Trump on Wednesday demanded the immediate dismissal of his hush-money case.
- Trump can't be sentenced while either president-elect or president, they argued.
- Manhattan prosecutors, meanwhile, are pushing forward, saying they'll sentence him in 2029 if need be.
Donald Trump's legal team filed Wednesday for the immediate dismissal of his New York hush-money case, arguing that he cannot be sentenced while either president-elect or president.
The orderly transition of power i
[2024-11-08] Fed Chair Jerome Powell says he wont resign if Donald Trump asks him to step down (cbsnews.com)
Fed Chair Jerome Powell says he won't resign if Donald Trump asks him to step down
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said he won't step down if President-elect Donald Trump, who has previously criticized Powell's performance, asks him to resign.
Speaking at a press conference Thursday to discuss the Fed's move today to cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, Powell added that it is not permitted under the law for presidents to fire or demote the Fed chair.
When asked if he'd
[2024-11-12] Fed Chair Said Trump Cant Fire Him ; Trump Never Said He Would (independentsentinel.com)
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will sue Donald Trump if he tries to fire him. However, Trump already said he wasn’t planning on firing him.
“If the president were to succeed at this, that would mean every future chair is subject to removal at the whim of the president,” said former general counsel for the Federal Reserve Scott Alvarez who is Powell’s attorney.
Powell said the Federal Reserve’s chair can’t be tossed out simply because the Oval doesn’t like interest rate policy. Trump hired Powell himsel
[2024-03-07] Key Takeaways from Fed Chair Powell Testimony on Capitol Hill (thecoastguard.ca)
Mandel Nagan/AFP/Getty Images
Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell arrives to testify before a House Financial Services Committee hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC on March 6, 2024.
Washington DC
CNN
—
The Federal Reserve is in no rush to cut interest rates, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified before congressional lawmakers on Wednesday. That means more pain for Americans who have already faced nearly two years of rising borrowing costs on everything from car loans t
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.085 | fed_macro | polymarket | 512312 | 153.5 | 2024-11-26 | 2025-04-29 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: U.S. recession before May 2025?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2024 or later, with the announcement made between September 25, 2024, and April 30, 2025, inclusive. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-04-30.
Current market price: 0.12
Price history: 60d ago: 0.21, 30d ago: 0.17, 14d ago: 0.12, 7d ago: 0.14, 3d ago: 0.14, 1d ago: 0.13
Time until resolution: 149 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2024-11-28] Today Mortgage Rates , November 28 , 2024 | When Will Getting a Mortgage Be Affordable Again ? (businessinsider.com)
- Mortgage rates have increased recently due to economic uncertainty.
- In April, 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.71%, up from the previous month.
- Experts predict rates will slightly decrease in 2025, but it depends on how the economy evolves.
As rates go down, more people should be able to buy a home or refinance their current mortgage. See how home interest rates are trending today and where they might go in the future.
Today's mortgage rates
Mortgage rates are expected to go down this yea
[2024-11-29] Today Mortgage Rates , November 29 , 2024 | All the Forces Keeping Mortgage Rates High Right Now (businessinsider.com)
- Mortgage rates have increased recently due to economic uncertainty.
- In April, 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.71%, up from the previous month.
- Experts predict rates will slightly decrease in 2025, but it depends on how the economy evolves.
As rates go down, more people should be able to buy a home or refinance their current mortgage. See how home interest rates are trending today and where they might go in the future.
Today's mortgage rates
Mortgage rates are expected to go down this yea
[2024-11-15] Today Mortgage Rates , November 15 , 2024 | Inflation Remains Elevated , Keeping Mortgage Rates High (businessinsider.com)
- Mortgage rates have increased recently due to economic uncertainty.
- In April, 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.71%, up from the previous month.
- Experts predict rates will slightly decrease in 2025, but it depends on how the economy evolves.
As rates go down, more people should be able to buy a home or refinance their current mortgage. See how home interest rates are trending today and where they might go in the future.
Today's mortgage rates
Mortgage rates are expected to go down this yea
[2024-11-14] Today Mortgage Rates , November 14 , 2024 | Rates Likely to Remain Elevated As Inflation Ticks up (businessinsider.com)
- Mortgage rates have increased recently due to economic uncertainty.
- In April, 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.71%, up from the previous month.
- Experts predict rates will slightly decrease in 2025, but it depends on how the economy evolves.
As rates go down, more people should be able to buy a home or refinance their current mortgage. See how home interest rates are trending today and where they might go in the future.
Today's mortgage rates
Mortgage rates are expected to go down this yea
[2024-08-23] Will the stock market rally or crash in 2025 ? Im prepared for anything ! (fool.co.uk)
Less than a month ago, fears of a recession were sending ripples through global stock markets. But after a minor dip earlier this month, prices bounced back stronger than ever.
Now, major banks and brokers think a recession in 2024 is unlikely. So does that mean we could see a fresh rally emerge in 2025? Anything is possible!
So I’ve added two new shares to my portfolio: one defensive, and one that could benefit from a market recovery.
The safe(r) option
I may be feeling positive about the direc
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.125 | fed_macro | polymarket | 508169 | 148.7 | 2024-12-02 | 2025-04-30 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: OpenAI becomes a for-profit before April 2025?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI shifts from its current capped-profit corporation structure to a for-profit model by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any form of fully for-profit organization—including a Benefit Corporation (B-Corp), Public Benefit Corporation (PBC), or a modification to its existing structure to remove profit caps—will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
If the OpenAI non-profit relinquishes control over the for-profit business, this will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
An announcement indicating that OpenAI is merely considering the shift will not suffice; the change must officially occur.
The primary resolution source will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-03-31.
Current market price: 0.43
Price history: 60d ago: 0.70, 30d ago: 0.58, 14d ago: 0.41, 7d ago: 0.40, 3d ago: 0.35, 1d ago: 0.38
Time until resolution: 114 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2024-12-05] Elon will do the right thing , wont abuse government powers , says OpenAI CEO Sam Altman (firstpost.com)
Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, shared his belief that Elon Musk would act responsibly in his new role leading the Department of Government Efficiency under the incoming Donald Trump administration. Speaking at the New York Times DealBook conference, Altman addressed concerns that Musk might misuse his proximity to political power to benefit his own businesses or harm competitors, calling such behaviour “profoundly un-American.” It should be noted that Vivek Ramaswamy, who will be leading the Departm
[2024-12-05] OpenAI chief believe Elon Musk will not abuse government power (thehindu.com)
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman expressed confidence Wednesday that Elon Musk would not use his proximity to Donald Trump to harm business rivals, calling such actions "profoundly un-American."
Speaking at the New York Times DealBook conference, Altman addressed concerns about Musk's announced role heading a new Department of Government Efficiency in the incoming Donald Trump administration, and whether he might use it to favour his own companies.
"I may turn out to be wrong, but I believe pretty strongly
[2024-11-15] CNBC Daily Open : Powell comments gave investors a reality check (nbcmiami.com)
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.
What you need to know today
Watch NBC6 free wherever you are
Postelection rally fades
U.S. markets fell on Thursday and are poised to end the week lower. The so-called "Trump trades," in particular, are fizzling out. Breaking from Wall Street, Asia-Pacific stocks mostly
[2024-11-29] Daily Financial Regulation Update -- Wednesday November 27 | Paul Hastings LLP (jdsupra.com)
Major Developments
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, November 6-7, 2024
November 26, 2024
The Federal Reserve on Tuesday released the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting that was held on November 6–7, 2024.
Federal Agencies
U.S. Department of the Treasury
OFR Brief: Crypto Exposure and Household Financial Conditions
November 26, 2024
The Office of Financial Research published a brief entitled, “Crypto Exposure and Household Financial Conditions.”
Federal Reserve Boar
[2024-02-18] OpenAI valued at $80B after deal : report (foxbusiness.com)
OpenAI valued at $80B after deal: report
OpenAI's tender offer reportedly values the firm at $90 billion after a similar deal last year valued it at $29 billion
OpenAI, the Microsoft-backed artificial intelligence (AI) company, completed a deal that values the firm at $80 billion or more, according to a new report.
The New York Times reported on Friday, citing people with knowledge of the deal, that OpenAI would sell shares in a tender offer led by venture capital firm Thrive Capital.
Under the
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.43 | ai_sector | polymarket | 508190 | 113.6 | 2024-12-07 | 2025-03-31 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30?
Background: Trump's Treasury Secretary pick Scott Bessent has floated the idea of Trump naming a successor to Jerome Powell to serve as a "shadow chair", prior to the end of Powell's term, scheduled for May 2026 (see: https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/business/money-report/fed-chair-jerome-powell-can-serve-remainder-of-term-says-trumps-treasury-pick-bessent/3788991/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump does not announce his pick for Federal Reserve Chair by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will, resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information form Donald Trump or one of his official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-06-30.
Current market price: 0.83
Price history: 3d ago: 0.83, 1d ago: 0.83
Time until resolution: 197 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2024-12-12] 4 Crucial Money Moves to Make Before Dec . 18 (cnet.com)
Today's Federal Reserve meeting may not be on your radar, especially with the headlines full of economic turmoil. But the Fed's actions have real consequences for your money, and knowing how to prepare can help you reap the rewards -- and minimize your losses.
Since the central bank is expected to hold interest rates steady at its July 29-30 meeting, savings (and borrowing) rates should stay high for the time being. But policymakers may start cutting rates as early as September. The sooner you m
[2024-12-11] Updated list of Trump picks for key positions in his administration (salinapost.com)
President-elect Donald Trump has filled the key posts for his second term in office, prioritizing loyalty to him after he felt bruised and hampered by internal squabbling during his first term.
Some of his choices could face difficult confirmation fights in the Senate, even with Republicans in control, and two candidates have already withdrawn from consideration.
Here's a look at Trump's choices:
CABINET:
Secretary of state: Marco Rubio
Trump would turn a former critic into an ally as the nation
[2024-11-22] Trump should fire Jerome Powell | The Highland County Press (highlandcountypress.com)
Trump should fire Jerome Powell
By Ryan Silverstein
Real Clear Wire
Legacy media have been obsessing over whether President-elect Donald Trump can remove Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve (the Fed). Jerome Powell recently came out and stated he would serve out his term – which ends in 2026. Further, Chairman Powell claims any attempt by President Trump to remove him is not “permitted under the law.” Unfortunately for Chairman Powell, President-elect Trump can remove him – and he sho
[2024-11-21] See the list of Trump Cabinet picks and more White House appointments so far (cbsnews.com)
See the full list of Trump Cabinet picks and major White House appointments
Republicans will have a majority in the Senate when President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House in January. That means his Cabinet nominees will likely face an easier path to confirmation, even some who may be controversial.
Among those are Trump's pick for secretary of defense, Fox News personality Pete Hegseth, who is facing headwinds over allegations of sexual misconduct, financial mismanagement and alcoho
[2024-07-17] Trump says he mulls Jamie Dimon for US Treasury , wont try ousting Fed Powell (geo.tv)
July 17, 2024
WASHINGTON: Donald Trump will not try ousting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell before the central banker's term ends and would consider JPMorgan JPM.N CEO Jamie Dimon for treasury secretary if he won the November 5 election, the former president told Bloomberg in an interview published on Tuesday.
JPMorgan declined to comment on Trump's remarks. Powell's term as chair expires in 2026. Powell's seat on the Fed Board of Governors expires in 2028. The Trump interview was conducted
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 1 | 0.835 | fed_macro | polymarket | 515461 | 196.9 | 2024-12-15 | 2025-06-30 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Fact Check: Luigi Mangione motivated by denied claims?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the perpetrator in the attack on UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson is identified, and it is confirmed that the identified individual was motivated by insurance claims involving UnitedHealthcare that were either delayed, denied, or had other issues by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official statements from the identified perpetrator and information released by law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-03-31.
Current market price: 0.17
Price history: 7d ago: 0.19, 3d ago: 0.14, 1d ago: 0.17
Time until resolution: 103 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2024-12-15] Chris Rock says no one would care about Brian Thompson murder suspect Luigi Mangione if he looked like Jonah Hill (hindustantimes.com)
Chris Rock says ‘no one would care’ about Brian Thompson's murder suspect Luigi Mangione if he looked like Jonah Hill
Elsewhere in the interview, Rock took shots at Joe Biden for his controversial pardon of son Hunter.
Chris Rock made a brutal joke about UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson's murder suspect, Luigi Mangio, on the latest Saturday Night Live episode. In his scathing monologue, the comedian quipped that “no one would care” about the 26-year-old accused if he looked like actor Jonah H
[2024-12-13] Corporate travel is in retreat , thanks to AIG (eturbonews.com)
The bailed-out AIG’s lavish junket has led U.S. companies to cancel $1 billion in conferences so far this year.
Hoteliers are calling it “the AIG effect,” after the insurance company that took a public drubbing for spending freely on corporate perks despite its financial turmoil.
“Corporations don’t want to have to report lavish spending to the board of directors, even if it wasn’t really all that lavish,” said Donald Wise, an investment banker who specializes in hotels.
It all started with a ki
[2024-12-04] Sundar Pichai says he hasnt discussed Google antitrust case with Trump . (theverge.com)
The 2024 election
See all Stories
A
Sundar Pichai says he hasn’t discussed Google’s antitrust case with Trump.
Here at the The New York Times DealBook Summit, Google CEO Sundar Pichai was just asked if he has talked about the US government’s ongoing case to break up the company. He said his convos with the President-elect have had “nothing to do with ongoing litigation.”
“He is very focused on American competitiveness,” Pichai said of Trump when asked by Andrew Ross Sorkin. “There are real areas
[2024-12-05] 10 people from Oakland , Macomb , Wayne counties sentenced in COVID fraud scheme (clickondetroit.com)
DETROIT – Ten people from Michigan who pleaded guilty in a multi-million dollar COVID unemployment fraud scheme have been sentenced to prison.
Prosecutors said that between April 2020 and August 2021, the defendants filed nearly 700 unemployment insurance claims across nine states, primarily Michigan, California, and Arizona. Once the claims were processed, the funds were put on pre-paid debit cards and mailed to the defendants.
When the defendants received the debit cards, they went to ATMs and
[2024-03-26] I have been dead wrong on that call : David Rosenberg on failed predictions and where to invest now (theglobeandmail.com)
This has been the charging bull of Wall Street that David Rosenberg didn’t see coming.
As the S&P 500 Index surged 45 per cent to all-time peaks over the past 18 months, Canada’s most prominent economist steadfastly steered investors away from making a broad bet on U.S. stocks. He suggested they look elsewhere for money-making opportunities – bonds, gold or other defensive areas of the market – often citing inflated valuations or an economy on the precipice of recession.
Some of his calls on spe
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.17 | mna_corporate | polymarket | 514707 | 102.6 | 2024-12-18 | 2025-03-31 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will Luigi Mangione plead guilty?
Background: On December 9, 2024, police detained Luigi Mangione in Altoona, Pennsylvania, in connection with the incident involving UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mangione pleads guilty to any charges stemming from the attack on UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson by May 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
This market will resolve based on his first pleas at the arraignment - subsequent pleas will not be considered. If the arraignment has not occurred by May 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "No".
Only guilty pleas to charges directly stemming from the attack on UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson will qualify (e.g. a guilty plea to charges for possession of a Fake ID will NOT qualify).
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-05-31.
Current market price: 0.28
Price history: 7d ago: 0.33, 3d ago: 0.28, 1d ago: 0.28
Time until resolution: 164 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2024-12-15] Chris Rock says no one would care about Brian Thompson murder suspect Luigi Mangione if he looked like Jonah Hill (hindustantimes.com)
Chris Rock says ‘no one would care’ about Brian Thompson's murder suspect Luigi Mangione if he looked like Jonah Hill
Elsewhere in the interview, Rock took shots at Joe Biden for his controversial pardon of son Hunter.
Chris Rock made a brutal joke about UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson's murder suspect, Luigi Mangio, on the latest Saturday Night Live episode. In his scathing monologue, the comedian quipped that “no one would care” about the 26-year-old accused if he looked like actor Jonah H
[2024-12-14] Trump lawyers rebuff DA idea for upholding his NY hush money conviction | News , Sports , Jobs (ironmountaindailynews.com)
Trump’s lawyers rebuff DA’s idea for upholding his NY hush money conviction
NEW YORK (AP) — President-elect Donald Trump’s lawyers urged a judge again Friday to throw out his hush money conviction, balking at the prosecution’s suggestion of preserving the verdict by treating the case the way some courts do when a defendant dies. They called the idea “absurd.”
The Manhattan district attorney’s office is asking Judge Juan M. Merchan to “pretend as if one of the assassination attempts against Presi
[2024-12-11] DA suggests unusual idea for halting Trump hush money case while upholding his conviction - Las Vegas Sun News (lasvegassun.com)
DA suggests unusual idea for halting Trump’s hush money case while upholding his conviction
Tuesday, Dec. 10, 2024 | 4:18 p.m.
NEW YORK — Eager to preserve President-elect Donald Trump ’s hush money conviction even as he returns to office, prosecutors are suggesting various ways forward — including one based on how some courts handle criminal cases when defendants die.
Trump’s spokesperson called the ideas “pathetic.”
In court papers made public Tuesday, the Manhattan district attorney’s office
[2024-12-09] Jan . 6 defendants confident Trump will pardon them (bostonglobe.com)
WASHINGTON — William Pope was finally set to go to trial this month on charges related to the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol insurrection, one of more than 1,500 people prosecuted for their actions during the violent attempt by Donald Trump’s supporters to overturn the 2020 election results.
Then Trump won the 2024 election, putting his vow to pardon those defendants potentially within months of becoming reality.
Pope, a 38-year-old Topeka, Kan., man representing himself on several nonviolent charges, qu
[2024-03-05] Ex - Trump Org CFO Pleads Guilty to Perjury in Fraud Case (cpapracticeadvisor.com)
By Molly Crane-Newman, New York Daily News (TNS)
Donald Trump’s former finance chief Allen Weisselberg copped to new criminal charges in a lower Manhattan courtroom on Monday—admitting he told lies to the New York attorney general concerning what he knew about the actual size of Trump’s Fifth Avenue penthouse, and when.
In the latest legal setback for the former president’s loyal longtime moneyman, the already-convicted Weisselberg pleaded guilty to two first-degree perjury counts at a brief Man
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.275 | mna_corporate | polymarket | 515182 | 164 | 2024-12-18 | 2025-05-31 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Fact Check: Luigi Mangione motivated by denied claims?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the perpetrator in the attack on UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson is identified, and it is confirmed that the identified individual was motivated by insurance claims involving UnitedHealthcare that were either delayed, denied, or had other issues by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official statements from the identified perpetrator and information released by law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-03-31.
Current market price: 0.27
Price history: 14d ago: 0.17, 7d ago: 0.32, 3d ago: 0.27, 1d ago: 0.27
Time until resolution: 90 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2024-12-27] Our Lying Eyes : New Photo Shows Biden With Hunter Business Associates Despite Past Denials (zerohedge.com)
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Debates
[2024-12-27] HO LEE FOOK : Newly Surfaced Pic BUSTS Joe Biden for His LIES About NOT Doing Business With Hunter and WOW (twitchy.com)
For years now, Joe Biden has insisted over and over and over again that he had nothing to do with Hunter's business dealings. He's claimed he's not 'The Big Guy' getting his 10% - heck, he's gone so far as to claim Hunter made no money from his dealings with China.
It's looking more and more like he lied.
Again.
Honestly at this point we'd be more surprised if Biden just told the truth about something, anything.
Check out this picture ... who is Joe hanging out with? Hrm.
Brand New Photos Expose
[2024-12-20] Luigi Mangione : Eric Adams , Indicted Mayor , Escorts Murder Suspect (ipowerrichmond.com)
Luigi Mangione: Eric Adams, Indicted Mayor, Escorts Murder Suspect
Alleged Criminal Mayor Eric Adams Escorts Alleged Murderer Luigi Mangione During NYC Extradition
In a moment of rich irony, alleged health insurance CEO murderer Luigi Mangione landed in New York City on Thursday following his extradition from Pennsylvania only to be greeted by people who included the Big Apple’s mayor, Eric Adams, who is, himself, similarly facing felony criminal charges in Manhattan.
A New York grand jury forma
[2024-12-15] Chris Rock says no one would care about Brian Thompson murder suspect Luigi Mangione if he looked like Jonah Hill (hindustantimes.com)
Chris Rock says ‘no one would care’ about Brian Thompson's murder suspect Luigi Mangione if he looked like Jonah Hill
Elsewhere in the interview, Rock took shots at Joe Biden for his controversial pardon of son Hunter.
Chris Rock made a brutal joke about UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson's murder suspect, Luigi Mangio, on the latest Saturday Night Live episode. In his scathing monologue, the comedian quipped that “no one would care” about the 26-year-old accused if he looked like actor Jonah H
[2024-03-26] I have been dead wrong on that call : David Rosenberg on failed predictions and where to invest now (theglobeandmail.com)
This has been the charging bull of Wall Street that David Rosenberg didn’t see coming.
As the S&P 500 Index surged 45 per cent to all-time peaks over the past 18 months, Canada’s most prominent economist steadfastly steered investors away from making a broad bet on U.S. stocks. He suggested they look elsewhere for money-making opportunities – bonds, gold or other defensive areas of the market – often citing inflated valuations or an economy on the precipice of recession.
Some of his calls on spe
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.27 | mna_corporate | polymarket | 514707 | 89.8 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-03-31 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Price of eggs goes up in Trump's first month?
Background: This market is on the price of eggs, (Grade A, Large, Cost per Dozen) as measured by the the Bureau of Labor Statistics (see: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of eggs, is higher in the Month of February 2025 than in January 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No“.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm) for February 2025 currently scheduled to be released on March 12, 2025.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-04-12.
Current market price: 0.69
Price history: 30d ago: 0.55, 14d ago: 0.60, 7d ago: 0.65, 3d ago: 0.66, 1d ago: 0.69
Time until resolution: 99 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2024-12-31] The boldest bitcoin predictions for 2025 are in and most see prices doubling to $200 , 000 (nbcphiladelphia.com)
- After a blistering 150% rally in bitcoin this year, crypto investors and industry executives told CNBC they're expecting the flagship cryptocurrency to hit new all-time highs in 2025.
- Several industry watchers who spoke to CNBC forecast bitcoin will hit $200,000 in 2025.
- The highest call is for bitcoin to surge to $250,000.
After a blistering rally in bitcoin this year, crypto investors and industry executives told CNBC they're expecting the flagship cryptocurrency to hit new all-time high
[2024-12-31] Bitcoin ( BTC ) price predictions for 2025 (cnbc.com)
After a blistering rally in bitcoin this year, crypto investors and industry executives told CNBC they're expecting the flagship cryptocurrency to hit new all-time highs in 2025.
In December, the world's largest cryptocurrency broke the highly anticipated $100,000, setting a record high price above that. That came after Donald Trump — who ran on a prominently pro-crypto policy platform — secured a historic election win in November.
Trump's imminent return to the White House has boosted sentiment
[2024-12-05] In the news today : New report shows how much Canadians will spend on food in 2025 | iNFOnews (infotel.ca)
A customer browses an aisle at a grocery store In Toronto on Friday, Feb. 2, 2024. Food prices in Canada are likely to increase by three to five per cent next year, according to a newly released report, but wild cards like climate change and Donald Trump could have unforeseen impacts. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Cole Burston
December 05, 2024 - 1:15 AM
Here is a roundup of stories from The Canadian Press designed to bring you up to speed...
Canadians to spend $801 more on food in 2025 as climate, Trump a
[2024-12-05] In the news today : New report shows how much Canadians will spend on food in 2025 – Brandon Sun (brandonsun.com)
In the news today: New report shows how much Canadians will spend on food in 2025
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[2024-03-31] How It Started ... How It Going : Price of eggs , chocolate remain higher than usual amid Easter festivities (foxbusiness.com)
Price of eggs, chocolate remain higher than usual amid Easter festivities
Emily Metz, president and CEO of the American Egg Board, told Fox Business '3 billion eggs' are estimated to be consumed this season
Inflation and other factors related to the U.S. economy continue to wreak havoc on Americans, and the price of Easter essentials, including eggs, chocolate and candy, remains at near-historic highs.
The average price for a dozen grade A eggs in cities throughout the United States sat at aroun
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 1 | 0.69 | fed_macro | polymarket | 512895 | 98.7 | 2025-01-03 | 2025-04-12 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair?
Background: Trump's Treasury Secretary pick Scott Bessent has floated the idea of Trump naming a successor to Jerome Powell to serve as a "shadow chair", prior to the end of Powell's term, scheduled for May 2026. (see: https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/business/money-report/fed-chair-jerome-powell-can-serve-remainder-of-term-says-trumps-treasury-pick-bessent/3788991/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump announces Kevin Warsh as his pick for Federal Reserve Chair by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will, resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information form Donald Trump or one of his official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-06-30.
Current market price: 0.03
Price history: 14d ago: 0.20, 7d ago: 0.15, 3d ago: 0.03, 1d ago: 0.03
Time until resolution: 174 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-01-01] Trump may tally the most Supreme Court appointments of any president in recent history (washingtontimes.com)
President-elect Donald Trump was already working on a short list of potential Supreme Court nominees during his campaign to prepare for vacancies in his coming term.
“I’m going to be putting together a list of judges — great judges — a list of about 20. I think it’s important to reveal who your Supreme Court justices will be,” Mr. Trump told The Times last year.
Conservatives are also preparing in case of a high court vacancy.
An appointment to the Supreme Court would be Mr. Trump’s fourth. He n
[2025-01-01] Theyre Going To Get Worse : Leading Economist Predicts Turmoil Ahead As Trump Inherits Biden Economy (dailycaller.com)
As President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office, leading economist Peter Schiff warned Tuesday on Newsmax of the impending economic challenges he will inherit.
During an appearance on “Newsmax New Year’s Eve With Shaun Kraisman,” Schiff said the problems within the U.S. economy have been largely overlooked by investors, which contributed to Trump’s electoral win. The economist suggested drastic measures as Trump faces these turmoils, including substantial cuts to government spending, ent
[2024-12-18] Big Tech execs woo Donald Trump as White House return nears (americanbazaaronline.com)
Top tech executives are reportedly courting U.S. President-elect Donald Trump ahead of his inauguration in January, 2025.
Trump himself said that he is now being welcomed by business executives, marking a sharp contrast to the situation eight years ago when he won his first term in the White House. Tech executives and founders are reportedly gathering in West Palm Beach, Florida to meet with the president-elect.
“We have a lot of great executives coming in, the top executives, the top bankers, t
[2024-12-18] Powell Triggers Market Carnage : VIX Spikes 58 %, Stocks Plummet , Dollar Hits 2 - Year Highs , Bitcoin Nosedives - Amazon . com ( NASDAQ : AMZN ) (benzinga.com)
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell adopted a hawkish stance during his Wednesday press conference after the December Fed meeting, sparking a market bloodbath as the New York session headed to the close.
Although the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 0.25% to a range of 4.25%-4.5%, as widely anticipated, the updated economic projections suggest just two potential rate cuts in 2025 — down from four projected in September and fewer than the three anticipated by markets before the meeting.
[2024-07-17] Trump says he mulls Jamie Dimon for US Treasury , wont try ousting Fed Powell (geo.tv)
July 17, 2024
WASHINGTON: Donald Trump will not try ousting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell before the central banker's term ends and would consider JPMorgan JPM.N CEO Jamie Dimon for treasury secretary if he won the November 5 election, the former president told Bloomberg in an interview published on Tuesday.
JPMorgan declined to comment on Trump's remarks. Powell's term as chair expires in 2026. Powell's seat on the Fed Board of Governors expires in 2028. The Trump interview was conducted
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.0305 | fed_macro | polymarket | 515448 | 174.3 | 2025-01-07 | 2025-06-30 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people?
Background: During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes between 500,000 (inclusive) and 750,000 (exclusive) non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-12-31.
Current market price: 0.14
Price history: 1d ago: 0.14
Time until resolution: 358 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-01-01] Year in review : A look at news events in February 2024 - Canada News (castanetkamloops.net)
Year in review: A look at news events in February 2024
Events in February 2024
A look at news events in February 2024:
01 - The federal government announces spending of an additional $362 million to help provinces and cities temporarily house asylum seekers. Immigration Minister Marc Miller called the interim housing assistance program a stopgap measure, saying the system needs to be rejigged to reflect a large flow of international migration that is not about to stop.
01 - Health Minister Mark
[2025-01-01] Editorial Roundup : United States (mynorthwest.com)
Editorial Roundup: United States
May 13, 2025, 10:32 AM
Excerpts from recent editorials in the United States and abroad:
___
May 9
The Washington Post says Donald Trump is destroying programs that help prepare for natural disasters
President Donald Trump’s administration is on a crusade against efforts to grapple with climate change. From the start of Trump’s second term, officials have halted clean energy projects or attempted to claw back funding for them, and, at the same time, they have fast
[2024-12-13] Year in review : A look at news events in February 2024 (bowenislandundercurrent.com)
A look at news events in February 2024:
01 - The federal government announces spending of an additional $362 million to help provinces and cities temporarily house asylum seekers. Immigration Minister Marc Miller called the interim housing assistance program a stopgap measure, saying the system needs to be rejigged to reflect a large flow of international migration that is not about to stop.
01 - Health Minister Mark Holland introduces legislation in Parliament to postpone the expansion of eligi
[2024-12-18] As the ( Customs and Trade ) World Turns : December 2024 | ArentFox Schiff (jdsupra.com)
Welcome to the December 2024 issue of “As the (Customs and Trade) World Turns,” our monthly newsletter where we compile essential updates from the customs and trade world over the past month. We bring you the most recent and significant insights in an accessible format, concluding with our main takeaways — aka “And the Fox Says…” — on what you need to know.
This edition offers crucial insights for sectors such as Automotive, E-Commerce, Energy and Cleantech, Fashion and Retail, Manufacturing, an
[2024-11-18] So How Will Trump Deport 20 Million ? - American Renaissance (amren.com)
So How Will Trump Deport 20 Million?
Caroline Graham, Daily Mail, November 16, 2024
When Donald Trump is inaugurated as America’s 47th president on January 20, the event will mark the official start of his second term in office with carefully stage-managed images that will be seen around the world.
Within hours of the event, Trump will take his seat behind the Resolute desk in the Oval Office and launch what he calls ‘the biggest mass deportation in American history’.
While the expulsion of ille
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.145 | tariffs | polymarket | 517313 | 357.7 | 2025-01-07 | 2025-12-31 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: OpenAI becomes a for-profit before April 2025?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI shifts from its current capped-profit corporation structure to a for-profit model by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any form of fully for-profit organization—including a Benefit Corporation (B-Corp), Public Benefit Corporation (PBC), or a modification to its existing structure to remove profit caps—will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
If the OpenAI non-profit relinquishes control over the for-profit business, this will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
An announcement indicating that OpenAI is merely considering the shift will not suffice; the change must officially occur.
The primary resolution source will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-03-31.
Current market price: 0.27
Price history: 90d ago: 0.64, 60d ago: 0.57, 30d ago: 0.27, 14d ago: 0.27, 7d ago: 0.53, 3d ago: 0.34, 1d ago: 0.26
Time until resolution: 81 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2024-12-19] Today Business News Live : Bangladesh pushes Adani to reopen power deal amid bribery scrutiny (thehindubusinessline.com)
Today Business News Live Updates December 24, 2024: Get all real-time and latest live news on business, economy, companies, financial news updates.
- December 24, 2024 12:13
Business news live today: Xerox to buy printer maker Lexmark in $1.5 billion deal
Xerox has agreed to buy printer maker Lexmark International Inc. from a consortium of Asian investors in a deal valued at $1.5 billion.
The transaction includes debt and other liabilities that Xerox will assume from current owners Ninestar Corp
[2024-12-31] Stakes are high : Google CEO Sundar Pichai highlights AI strategy and challenges for 2025 (businesstoday.in)
Google CEO Sundar Pichai has set an ambitious tone for 2025, urging employees to accelerate innovation and remain focused amid fierce competition, regulatory pressures, and advancements in artificial intelligence. Speaking at a strategy meeting earlier in the month reported by CNBC, Pichai emphasised the need to deliver cutting-edge solutions, calling it a “critical” year for the company.
“I think 2025 will be critical,” Pichai told employees at the meeting held at Google’s Mountain View headqua
[2024-02-18] OpenAI valued at $80B after deal : report (foxbusiness.com)
OpenAI valued at $80B after deal: report
OpenAI's tender offer reportedly values the firm at $90 billion after a similar deal last year valued it at $29 billion
OpenAI, the Microsoft-backed artificial intelligence (AI) company, completed a deal that values the firm at $80 billion or more, according to a new report.
The New York Times reported on Friday, citing people with knowledge of the deal, that OpenAI would sell shares in a tender offer led by venture capital firm Thrive Capital.
Under the
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.265 | ai_sector | polymarket | 508190 | 81.3 | 2025-01-09 | 2025-03-31 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: U.S. recession before May 2025?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2024 or later, with the announcement made between September 25, 2024, and April 30, 2025, inclusive. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-04-30.
Current market price: 0.06
Price history: 90d ago: 0.18, 60d ago: 0.15, 30d ago: 0.14, 14d ago: 0.10, 7d ago: 0.06, 3d ago: 0.06, 1d ago: 0.06
Time until resolution: 109 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-01-05] Weekly Market Outlook ( 06 - 10 January ) (forexlive.com)
UPCOMING EVENTS:
- Monday: China Caixin Services PMI, German CPI, Canada Services PMI.
- Tuesday: Switzerland CPI, French CPI, Eurozone CPI, US ISM Services PMI, US Job Openings.
- Wednesday: Australia Monthly CPI, Eurozone PPI, US ADP, FOMC Minutes.
- Thursday: Japan Average Cash Earnings, Eurozone Retail Sales, US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, US Jobless Claims.
- Friday: Switzerland Unemployment Rate, Canada Employment Report, US NFP, US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
Tuesda
[2025-01-05] Deliver or perish ! - Jamaica Observer (jamaicaobserver.com)
Deliver or perish!
The year 2024 was a year of elections globally. Without exception, electorates worldwide are anxiously expecting that in 2025 ruling political parties will deliver on the promises that were made on the political stump. Political parties that do not deliver consistent with promises will go to the wall, fast.
Globally, democracy is on trial for, among other things, failure to deliver required economic and social goods to especially those who I described here previously as the hu
[2024-12-27] What 2025 holds for interest rates , inflation and your pocketbook (alternet.org)
But what economists call “soft landings” – when an economy slows just enough to curb inflation, but not enough to cause a recession – are only soft until they aren’t.
As we turn to 2025, we’re optimistic the economy will keep growing. But that’s not without some caveats. Here are the key questions and risks we’re watching as the U.S. rings in the new year.
The Federal Reserve and interest rates
Some people expected a downturn in 2022 – and again in 2023 and 2024 – due to the Federal Reserve’s ha
[2024-12-31] Will the US economy and the stock market continue their growth into 2025 ? (invezz.com)
Will the US economy and the stock market continue their growth into 2025?
Will the US economy and the stock market continue their growth into 2025?
- The US economy grew 3% in 2024 but may slow to 2% in 2025 due to inflation and policy shifts.
- New tariffs, tax cuts, and stricter immigration could disrupt trade and raise costs.
- Stocks are strong but risky, while bonds regain appeal for conservative investors.
The US economy is heading into 2025 with strong momentum, but significant uncertaint
[2024-08-23] Will the stock market rally or crash in 2025 ? Im prepared for anything ! (fool.co.uk)
Less than a month ago, fears of a recession were sending ripples through global stock markets. But after a minor dip earlier this month, prices bounced back stronger than ever.
Now, major banks and brokers think a recession in 2024 is unlikely. So does that mean we could see a fresh rally emerge in 2025? Anything is possible!
So I’ve added two new shares to my portfolio: one defensive, and one that could benefit from a market recovery.
The safe(r) option
I may be feeling positive about the direc
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.055 | fed_macro | polymarket | 508169 | 108.6 | 2025-01-11 | 2025-04-30 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Price of eggs goes up in Trump's first month?
Background: This market is on the price of eggs, (Grade A, Large, Cost per Dozen) as measured by the the Bureau of Labor Statistics (see: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of eggs, is higher in the Month of February 2025 than in January 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No“.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm) for February 2025 currently scheduled to be released on March 12, 2025.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-04-12.
Current market price: 0.62
Price history: 30d ago: 0.57, 14d ago: 0.66, 7d ago: 0.79, 3d ago: 0.62, 1d ago: 0.63
Time until resolution: 88 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2024-12-31] The boldest bitcoin predictions for 2025 are in and most see prices doubling to $200 , 000 (nbcphiladelphia.com)
- After a blistering 150% rally in bitcoin this year, crypto investors and industry executives told CNBC they're expecting the flagship cryptocurrency to hit new all-time highs in 2025.
- Several industry watchers who spoke to CNBC forecast bitcoin will hit $200,000 in 2025.
- The highest call is for bitcoin to surge to $250,000.
After a blistering rally in bitcoin this year, crypto investors and industry executives told CNBC they're expecting the flagship cryptocurrency to hit new all-time high
[2024-12-31] Bitcoin ( BTC ) price predictions for 2025 (cnbc.com)
After a blistering rally in bitcoin this year, crypto investors and industry executives told CNBC they're expecting the flagship cryptocurrency to hit new all-time highs in 2025.
In December, the world's largest cryptocurrency broke the highly anticipated $100,000, setting a record high price above that. That came after Donald Trump — who ran on a prominently pro-crypto policy platform — secured a historic election win in November.
Trump's imminent return to the White House has boosted sentiment
[2024-03-31] How It Started ... How It Going : Price of eggs , chocolate remain higher than usual amid Easter festivities (foxbusiness.com)
Price of eggs, chocolate remain higher than usual amid Easter festivities
Emily Metz, president and CEO of the American Egg Board, told Fox Business '3 billion eggs' are estimated to be consumed this season
Inflation and other factors related to the U.S. economy continue to wreak havoc on Americans, and the price of Easter essentials, including eggs, chocolate and candy, remains at near-historic highs.
The average price for a dozen grade A eggs in cities throughout the United States sat at aroun
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 1 | 0.625 | fed_macro | polymarket | 512895 | 87.8 | 2025-01-14 | 2025-04-12 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair?
Background: Trump's Treasury Secretary pick Scott Bessent has floated the idea of Trump naming a successor to Jerome Powell to serve as a "shadow chair", prior to the end of Powell's term, scheduled for May 2026 (see: https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/business/money-report/fed-chair-jerome-powell-can-serve-remainder-of-term-says-trumps-treasury-pick-bessent/3788991/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump announces Arthur Laffer as his pick for Federal Reserve Chair by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will, resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information form Donald Trump or one of his official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-06-30.
Current market price: 0.11
Price history: 30d ago: 0.01, 14d ago: 0.01, 7d ago: 0.00, 3d ago: 0.03, 1d ago: 0.04
Time until resolution: 167 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-01-13] IMRA - Monday , January 13 , 2025 Will Netanyahu Put Israel On Trump Doormat List ? (imra.org.il)
Will Netanyahu Put Israel On Trump's Doormat List? Dr. Aaron Lerner 13 January 2025
Days away from President-elect Trump's inauguration, it appears that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu may set the catastrophic precedent of succumbing to pressure to accept an unacceptable "deal" with Hamas.
If you only care about the next five minutes - or even seven days - then being spineless today to please Mr. Trump makes sense.
But for someone concerned about Israel's future over the next four years and be
[2025-01-13] Please pardon me before Trump throws me in jail - Cohen begs President Biden (dailypost.ng)
News
Please pardon me before Trump throws me in jail – Cohen begs President Biden
A former lawyer of United States President-elect Donald Trump, has pleaded with outgoing President Joe Biden to grant him a pardon just like he did for his son Hunter.
Cohen is claiming that Trump will punish him for testifying against the politician in his hush money conviction.
Cohen had already been convicted for his role in the case years earlier.
He was also the star witness for the prosecution as Trump was co
[2024-12-18] Fed cuts interest rates a third time , points to inflation as challenge for 2025 (thepeninsulaqatar.com)
US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell leaves after speaking at a press conference after the Monetary Policy Committee meeting in Washington, DC, on December 18, 2024. (Photo by Andrew Caballero-Reynolds / AFP)
The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by an additional quarter percentage point and signaled a slower pace of cuts next year, as inflation proves to be a bigger challenge than it estimated just a few months ago.
The Fed penciled in just two rate cuts for 2025, down from four forec
[2024-12-18] Powell signals he wont succumb to pressure from Trump , CIO says (marketscreener.com)
STORY: :: Lisa Bernhard, Reuters
:: Michael Landsberg, Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management
The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates on Wednesday and projected it will make just two quarter-percentage-point rate reductions in 2025.
That is half a percentage point less in policy easing than officials had anticipated as of September.
Fed projections of inflation for the first year of the new Trump administration have jumped from their prior estimates - and sit well above the central bank
[2024-03-25] J . D . FOSTER : Congress Should Fix When The Fed Chair Is Picked (dailycaller.com)
The Wall Street Journal reported last week that former President Donald Trump met with Art Laffer and Steve Moore, two of his former advisors, to present possible successors to Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell.
Laffer and Moore suggested either former Trump Council of Economic Advisers Chair Kevin Hasset, former Fed board of governors member Kevin Warsh, or even Laffer himself. These are respectable options. Trump’s problem is he would likely have to wait until after the 2026 mid-terms bef
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.108 | fed_macro | polymarket | 515450 | 166.9 | 2025-01-14 | 2025-06-30 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair?
Background: Trump's Treasury Secretary pick Scott Bessent has floated the idea of Trump naming a successor to Jerome Powell to serve as a "shadow chair", prior to the end of Powell's term, scheduled for May 2026 (see: https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/business/money-report/fed-chair-jerome-powell-can-serve-remainder-of-term-says-trumps-treasury-pick-bessent/3788991/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump announces Kevin Hassett as his pick for Federal Reserve Chair by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will, resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information form Donald Trump or one of his official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-06-30.
Current market price: 0.06
Price history: 30d ago: 0.00, 14d ago: 0.01, 7d ago: 0.01, 3d ago: 0.12, 1d ago: 0.06
Time until resolution: 164 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-01-17] 5 Takeaways From Bessent Confirmation Hearing for Treasury Secretary (theepochtimes.com)
Nominee for secretary of the Department of the Treasury Scott Bessent has vowed that when President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House, he will unleash “a new economic golden age.”
Bessent, a billionaire hedge fund manager, appeared before the Senate Finance Committee for his confirmation hearing in Washington on Jan. 16. Democrats asked questions about tax policy, tariffs, and other pressing economic issues.
[2025-01-17] Biden Adviser Warns Trump Risks Inflation If He Meddles With Fed (yahoo.com)
Biden Adviser Warns Trump Risks Inflation If He Meddles With Fed
(Bloomberg) -- A top economic adviser to President Joe Biden warned that Donald Trump’s incoming administration risks reigniting inflation if it interferes with the Federal Reserve’s policymaking on interest rates.
Most Read from Bloomberg
Jared Bernstein, the chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, said he is keeping an open mind about the president-elect’s team but alluded to Trump’s past musings that the executive branch s
[2024-12-18] Powell signals he wont succumb to pressure from Trump , CIO says (marketscreener.com)
STORY: :: Lisa Bernhard, Reuters
:: Michael Landsberg, Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management
The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates on Wednesday and projected it will make just two quarter-percentage-point rate reductions in 2025.
That is half a percentage point less in policy easing than officials had anticipated as of September.
Fed projections of inflation for the first year of the new Trump administration have jumped from their prior estimates - and sit well above the central bank
[2024-12-18] Powell Triggers Market Carnage : VIX Spikes 58 %, Stocks Plummet , Dollar Hits 2 - Year Highs , Bitcoin Nosedives - Amazon . com ( NASDAQ : AMZN ) (benzinga.com)
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell adopted a hawkish stance during his Wednesday press conference after the December Fed meeting, sparking a market bloodbath as the New York session headed to the close.
Although the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 0.25% to a range of 4.25%-4.5%, as widely anticipated, the updated economic projections suggest just two potential rate cuts in 2025 — down from four projected in September and fewer than the three anticipated by markets before the meeting.
[2024-07-17] Trump says he mulls Jamie Dimon for US Treasury , wont try ousting Fed Powell (geo.tv)
July 17, 2024
WASHINGTON: Donald Trump will not try ousting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell before the central banker's term ends and would consider JPMorgan JPM.N CEO Jamie Dimon for treasury secretary if he won the November 5 election, the former president told Bloomberg in an interview published on Tuesday.
JPMorgan declined to comment on Trump's remarks. Powell's term as chair expires in 2026. Powell's seat on the Fed Board of Governors expires in 2028. The Trump interview was conducted
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.061 | fed_macro | polymarket | 515449 | 164.2 | 2025-01-17 | 2025-06-30 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Circle IPO in 2025?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Circle completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
If Circle is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-12-31.
Current market price: 0.66
Price history: 14d ago: 0.67, 7d ago: 0.66, 3d ago: 0.65, 1d ago: 0.62
Time until resolution: 348 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-01-13] IMRA - Monday , January 13 , 2025 Will Netanyahu Put Israel On Trump Doormat List ? (imra.org.il)
Will Netanyahu Put Israel On Trump's Doormat List? Dr. Aaron Lerner 13 January 2025
Days away from President-elect Trump's inauguration, it appears that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu may set the catastrophic precedent of succumbing to pressure to accept an unacceptable "deal" with Hamas.
If you only care about the next five minutes - or even seven days - then being spineless today to please Mr. Trump makes sense.
But for someone concerned about Israel's future over the next four years and be
[2025-01-13] Hmmm : Hostage Deal Awaits Final Hamas Approval ? (hotair.com)
Soooo ... you're saying there's no chance?
Let me know if you've seen this movie before:
A three-stage deal to release the hostages held by Hamas terrorists in Gaza has been reached, and parties are awaiting Hamas’s response, a source told The Jerusalem Post on Monday morning.
This deal was reached after a midnight "breakthrough" in talks attended by envoys of both Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
The official said the text for a ceasefire and release of hostages was presented by Qatar to both sides
[2024-12-28] Credila Financial Services plans to raise ₹5 , 000 cr via IPO (thehindubusinessline.com)
Credila Financial Services Limited (formerly HDFC Credila Financial Services) has approved plans to raise capital through an initial public offering (IPO), potentially exceeding ₹5,000 crore, at its extraordinary general meeting held on December 26, 2024. The IPO, targeted for 2025, follows a significant ownership restructuring and exceptional financial performance in FY24.
In addition to approving the IPO plans, shareholders gave their consent for adopting restated articles of association and m
[2024-12-26] Ventive Hospitality IPO : Allotment status , GMP , likely listing price and date (thehindubusinessline.com)
Ventive Hospitality’s ₹1,600-crore initial public offering (IPO) allotment is set to be finalized today, following a strong subscription rate of 9.82 times during the offering period that closed on December 24, 2024. The IPO, priced at ₹610-643 per share, received bids for 14.17 crore shares against 1.44 crore shares on offer.
Non-Institutional Investors showed the strongest interest with 13.87 times subscription, followed by Qualified Institutional Buyers at 9.08 times and Retail Individual Inv
[2024-05-03] Despite recent successes , IPO market still wont fully open until 2025 (techcrunch.com)
This year already proved that startups are willing to go public in a less-than-ideal market — and get rewarded for it, too. But bankers, lawyers and investors said the recent IPO successes aren’t enough to foster more than a dozen tech IPOs this year.
“I don’t think we will have the floodgates open like I might have thought,” Greg Martin, co-founder and managing director at Rainmaker Securities, told TechCrunch. “The trickle was delayed; I thought it would happen sooner in Q1. Because of that, I
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 1 | 0.66 | mna_corporate | polymarket | 516707 | 347.9 | 2025-01-17 | 2025-12-31 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: U.S. recession before May 2025?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2024 or later, with the announcement made between September 25, 2024, and April 30, 2025, inclusive. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-04-30.
Current market price: 0.06
Price history: 90d ago: 0.28, 60d ago: 0.12, 30d ago: 0.11, 14d ago: 0.06, 7d ago: 0.06, 3d ago: 0.04, 1d ago: 0.06
Time until resolution: 102 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-01-17] US Fed may pause rate cuts in January 2025 : Reuters poll (invezz.com)
Fed may pause rate cuts in January amid inflation concerns tied to Trump’s policies: Reuters poll
Mar 27, 2026, 16:02 PM
Central banks
Brazil central bank orders liquidation of Entrepay units over risks
Mar 27, 2026, 15:31 PM
Economic
Mexico swings to deficit as import surge outpaces export growth
Mar 27, 2026, 10:47 AM
Artificial intelligence
After Hormuz, is Taiwan the next economic shock no one is ready for?
Mar 27, 2026, 08:45 AM
Commodities
Another energy chokepoint? As Iran‑US war drags on
[2025-01-13] IMRA - Monday , January 13 , 2025 Will Netanyahu Put Israel On Trump Doormat List ? (imra.org.il)
Will Netanyahu Put Israel On Trump's Doormat List? Dr. Aaron Lerner 13 January 2025
Days away from President-elect Trump's inauguration, it appears that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu may set the catastrophic precedent of succumbing to pressure to accept an unacceptable "deal" with Hamas.
If you only care about the next five minutes - or even seven days - then being spineless today to please Mr. Trump makes sense.
But for someone concerned about Israel's future over the next four years and be
[2024-12-27] What 2025 holds for interest rates , inflation and your pocketbook (alternet.org)
But what economists call “soft landings” – when an economy slows just enough to curb inflation, but not enough to cause a recession – are only soft until they aren’t.
As we turn to 2025, we’re optimistic the economy will keep growing. But that’s not without some caveats. Here are the key questions and risks we’re watching as the U.S. rings in the new year.
The Federal Reserve and interest rates
Some people expected a downturn in 2022 – and again in 2023 and 2024 – due to the Federal Reserve’s ha
[2024-12-31] Will the US economy and the stock market continue their growth into 2025 ? (invezz.com)
Will the US economy and the stock market continue their growth into 2025?
Will the US economy and the stock market continue their growth into 2025?
- The US economy grew 3% in 2024 but may slow to 2% in 2025 due to inflation and policy shifts.
- New tariffs, tax cuts, and stricter immigration could disrupt trade and raise costs.
- Stocks are strong but risky, while bonds regain appeal for conservative investors.
The US economy is heading into 2025 with strong momentum, but significant uncertaint
[2024-08-23] Will the stock market rally or crash in 2025 ? Im prepared for anything ! (fool.co.uk)
Less than a month ago, fears of a recession were sending ripples through global stock markets. But after a minor dip earlier this month, prices bounced back stronger than ever.
Now, major banks and brokers think a recession in 2024 is unlikely. So does that mean we could see a fresh rally emerge in 2025? Anything is possible!
So I’ve added two new shares to my portfolio: one defensive, and one that could benefit from a market recovery.
The safe(r) option
I may be feeling positive about the direc
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.055 | fed_macro | polymarket | 508169 | 102.3 | 2025-01-18 | 2025-04-30 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before July?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by June 30, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-06-30.
Current market price: 0.11
Price history: 14d ago: 0.10, 7d ago: 0.10, 3d ago: 0.10, 1d ago: 0.11
Time until resolution: 163 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2024-12-31] Sundar Pichai : 2025 Critical For Google , Focus On AI - IndiaWest Journal News (indiawest.com)
Sundar Pichai: 2025 Critical For Google, Focus On AI
India-West News Desk
MOUNTAIN VIEW, CA – Google CEO Sundar Pichai has set the stage for 2025 to be a pivotal year for the company, emphasizing the rapid evolution of artificial intelligence (AI) and the need for swift action. During a strategy meeting recently, Pichai urged staff to “internalize the urgency of this moment” as the company faces a defining period in the AI landscape.
“The stakes are high,” Pichai remarked, according to a CNBC re
[2024-12-20] Not to be outdone by OpenAI , Google releases its own reasoning AI model (article.wn.com)
It's been a really busy month for Google as it apparently endeavors to outshine OpenAI with a blitz of AI releases. On Thursday, Google dropped its latest party trick: Gemini 2.0 Flash Thinking Experimental, which is a new AI model that uses runtime "reasoning" techniques similar to OpenAI's o1 to achieve "deeper thinking" on... read full story
Photo: Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai speaks about Gemini at a Google I/O event in Mountain View, Calif., Tuesday, May 14, 2024.
[2024-02-09] superAI | NextBigFuture . com (nextbigfuture.com)
OpenAI $500 Billion Valuation EXPOSED. REVEALING the Surprising AI Stock Winners in 2026
OpenAI is winning AI in 2025. They are valued at $500 billion and have nearly 1 billion users. With the huge pace of deals and construction, who wins AI in 2026? Does AMD come from behind to seriously challenge AMD? Who can seriously challenge OpenAI? Brian WangBrian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a …
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.11 | ai_sector | polymarket | 516977 | 163.4 | 2025-01-18 | 2025-06-30 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his inauguration speech?
Background: Donald Trump's inaugural address is scheduled to take place on January 20, 2025.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "AI" or "artificial intelligence" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.
Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.
Compound words will count as long as "AI" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to Artificial Intelligence.
If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond February 3, 2025 ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be the video of the speech.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-02-03.
Current market price: 0.45
Price history: 1d ago: 0.45
Time until resolution: 16 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-01-13] IMRA - Monday , January 13 , 2025 Will Netanyahu Put Israel On Trump Doormat List ? (imra.org.il)
Will Netanyahu Put Israel On Trump's Doormat List? Dr. Aaron Lerner 13 January 2025
Days away from President-elect Trump's inauguration, it appears that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu may set the catastrophic precedent of succumbing to pressure to accept an unacceptable "deal" with Hamas.
If you only care about the next five minutes - or even seven days - then being spineless today to please Mr. Trump makes sense.
But for someone concerned about Israel's future over the next four years and be
[2025-01-18] How did Donald Trump deal with crypto during his first term ? (cointelegraph.com)
With Donald Trump scheduled to be inaugurated for a second term as US President on Jan. 20, many crypto industry insiders have said they expect the administration to strike a different tone on digital assets than it did before.
The former Republican president first took office in January 2017, a few months after winning a close election against former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Unlike the 2024 election cycle, Trump did not appear to have mentioned cryptocurrency, blockchain or Bitcoi
[2024-12-31] Stakes are high : Google CEO Sundar Pichai highlights AI strategy and challenges for 2025 (businesstoday.in)
Google CEO Sundar Pichai has set an ambitious tone for 2025, urging employees to accelerate innovation and remain focused amid fierce competition, regulatory pressures, and advancements in artificial intelligence. Speaking at a strategy meeting earlier in the month reported by CNBC, Pichai emphasised the need to deliver cutting-edge solutions, calling it a “critical” year for the company.
“I think 2025 will be critical,” Pichai told employees at the meeting held at Google’s Mountain View headqua
[2024-12-31] Sundar Pichai : 2025 Critical For Google , Focus On AI - IndiaWest Journal News (indiawest.com)
Sundar Pichai: 2025 Critical For Google, Focus On AI
India-West News Desk
MOUNTAIN VIEW, CA – Google CEO Sundar Pichai has set the stage for 2025 to be a pivotal year for the company, emphasizing the rapid evolution of artificial intelligence (AI) and the need for swift action. During a strategy meeting recently, Pichai urged staff to “internalize the urgency of this moment” as the company faces a defining period in the AI landscape.
“The stakes are high,” Pichai remarked, according to a CNBC re
[2024-02-15] AI could disrupt the 2024 US presidential election . What Congress doing about it ? (edition.cnn.com)
Artificial intelligence is already sowing chaos and confusion in US elections — from a bogus robocall impersonating President Joe Biden to a falsified hot-mic recording apparently designed to torpedo a Chicago mayoral campaign.
The country urgently needs new laws to prevent deepfakes and other AI-created misinformation from overwhelming elections at an unprecedented scale, policy experts and US lawmakers warn.
But with just nine months until Americans head to the ballot box, there are few signs
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.45 | ai_sector | polymarket | 518821 | 15.6 | 2025-01-18 | 2025-02-03 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Trump imposes 40% tariff on China in first 100 days?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action enacting a general 40% or greater tariff on imports in to the United States from the People's Republic of China by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 40% or greater tariff on imports in to the United States from People's Republic of China is enacted.
Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect.
If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-04-29.
Current market price: 0.14
Price history: 30d ago: 0.23, 14d ago: 0.19, 7d ago: 0.16, 3d ago: 0.14, 1d ago: 0.14
Time until resolution: 99 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-01-18] How did Donald Trump deal with crypto during his first term ? (cointelegraph.com)
With Donald Trump scheduled to be inaugurated for a second term as US President on Jan. 20, many crypto industry insiders have said they expect the administration to strike a different tone on digital assets than it did before.
The former Republican president first took office in January 2017, a few months after winning a close election against former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Unlike the 2024 election cycle, Trump did not appear to have mentioned cryptocurrency, blockchain or Bitcoi
[2025-01-17] US Fed may pause rate cuts in January 2025 : Reuters poll (invezz.com)
Fed may pause rate cuts in January amid inflation concerns tied to Trump’s policies: Reuters poll
Mar 27, 2026, 16:02 PM
Central banks
Brazil central bank orders liquidation of Entrepay units over risks
Mar 27, 2026, 15:31 PM
Economic
Mexico swings to deficit as import surge outpaces export growth
Mar 27, 2026, 10:47 AM
Artificial intelligence
After Hormuz, is Taiwan the next economic shock no one is ready for?
Mar 27, 2026, 08:45 AM
Commodities
Another energy chokepoint? As Iran‑US war drags on
[2024-12-28] Trump biggest challenge : Will he confront China , or cut a deal ? (salon.com)
Gaza, Haiti, Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Russia, Syria, Ukraine and Venezuela: President-elect Donald Trump will face no shortage of foreign policy challenges when he assumes office in January. None, however, comes close to China in scope, scale or complexity. No other country has the capacity to resist his predictable antagonism with the same degree of strength and tenacity, and none arouses more hostility and outrage among MAGA Republicans. In short, China is guaranteed to put Trump in a difficult
[2024-12-24] Trump economic warfare looms over global economy - World Socialist Web Site (wsws.org)
As 2024 draws to a close, the global economy is dominated by two interconnected issues: the impact of Trump’s threatened tariff hikes and the industrial powerhouse that is China.
The connection between the two is that Trump’s economic war, waged under the banner of Make America Great Again, is ultimately grounded on seeking to prevent the rise of China’s high-tech development in order to maintain US economic hegemony.
But while China is the central target, the US economic warfare goes across the
[2024-02-05] Donald Trump Views on Xi Jinping and Potential Trade Tariffs | World News (timesofindia.indiatimes.com)
NEW DELHI: Former US President
Donald Trump reiterated his praise for Chinese President
Xi Jinping, while also signaling a potential intensification of economic pressures on China by proposing an increase in tariffs on Chinese imports beyond 60 percent if he returns to office.
Responding to inquiries, during an interview on Fox News, about escalating the trade conflict with China and the possibility of a 60 percent tariff hike, Trump clarified, "No" but expressed willingness to consider even hig
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 1 | 0.145 | tariffs | polymarket | 513494 | 99 | 2025-01-20 | 2025-04-29 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Fact Check: Luigi Mangione motivated by denied claims?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the perpetrator in the attack on UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson is identified, and it is confirmed that the identified individual was motivated by insurance claims involving UnitedHealthcare that were either delayed, denied, or had other issues by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official statements from the identified perpetrator and information released by law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-03-31.
Current market price: 0.17
Price history: 30d ago: 0.27, 14d ago: 0.14, 7d ago: 0.12, 3d ago: 0.12, 1d ago: 0.17
Time until resolution: 69 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2024-12-31] How the Stock Market Defied Expectations Again This Year , by the Numbers (arkansasbusiness.com)
Hi there!
If you’re seeing this message, it means the article you’re looking for was originally from the Associated Press and has been removed. AP stories are only available on our website for 30 days. But don’t worry — you’re being redirected to our home page, where we have plenty of other business stories for you to explore.
[2024-12-31] US Supreme Court Declines to Resolve Pleading Requirements for Securities Fraud Claims | Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP (jdsupra.com)
Overview
In an unexpected turn of events, the U.S. Supreme Court recently dismissed without explanation two securities fraud class action cases out of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit—Facebook, Inc. v. Amalgamated Bank [No. 23-980] and NVIDIA Corp. v. E. Ohman J:or Fonder AB [No. 23-970]—that many were anticipating would clarify the exacting pleading requirements civil plaintiffs must satisfy in securities fraud class actions brought under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “E
[2024-12-20] Luigi Mangione : Eric Adams , Indicted Mayor , Escorts Murder Suspect (ipowerrichmond.com)
Luigi Mangione: Eric Adams, Indicted Mayor, Escorts Murder Suspect
Alleged Criminal Mayor Eric Adams Escorts Alleged Murderer Luigi Mangione During NYC Extradition
In a moment of rich irony, alleged health insurance CEO murderer Luigi Mangione landed in New York City on Thursday following his extradition from Pennsylvania only to be greeted by people who included the Big Apple’s mayor, Eric Adams, who is, himself, similarly facing felony criminal charges in Manhattan.
A New York grand jury forma
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.165 | mna_corporate | polymarket | 514707 | 69.3 | 2025-01-21 | 2025-03-31 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Trump imposes 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico before March?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action enacting a general 25% or greater tariff on imports in to the United States from Mexico and Canada by February 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 25% or greater tariff on imports in to the United States from Mexico and Canada is enacted.
Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-02-28.
Current market price: 0.27
Time until resolution: 38 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-01-17] US Fed may pause rate cuts in January 2025 : Reuters poll (invezz.com)
Fed may pause rate cuts in January amid inflation concerns tied to Trump’s policies: Reuters poll
Mar 27, 2026, 16:02 PM
Central banks
Brazil central bank orders liquidation of Entrepay units over risks
Mar 27, 2026, 15:31 PM
Economic
Mexico swings to deficit as import surge outpaces export growth
Mar 27, 2026, 10:47 AM
Artificial intelligence
After Hormuz, is Taiwan the next economic shock no one is ready for?
Mar 27, 2026, 08:45 AM
Commodities
Another energy chokepoint? As Iran‑US war drags on
[2025-01-20] Trump said he will label Mexican cartels as terrorists in his inaugural speech. What’s at stake? | Mexico | The Guardian (theguardian.com)
Al-Qaida, Hezbollah, the Islamic State – the list of foreign terrorist organisations (FTOs) is a who’s who of America’s enemies. Now Donald Trump wants to add a new one: Mexican cartels.
Experts say the designation, which Trump confirmed in his inauguration speech on Monday, will not give the US many more tools to go after organised crime, and that it may simply be a threat to force more action from Mexico itself.
But some fear it could be the first step towards US military strikes in Mexican te
[2024-12-27] Trump tariff threat looms over interest rate path in 2025 (financialpost.com)
Trump tariff threat looms over interest rate path in 2025
Even if the United States does not follow through on tariffs, the very threat could be a drag on business investment in Canada
Most economists a month ago likely would have told you that Canadian interest rates would steadily decline during the first half of 2025 before stabilizing in the third quarter.
But that was before United States president-elect Donald Trump introduced the threat of a 25 per cent tariff on all Canadian imports, a “
[2024-12-27] How Tariffs Can Help America (foreignaffairs.com)
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has promised to implement a suite of aggressive tariffs on American trade partners, including a blanket 20 percent levy on goods from abroad. Although his supporters claim that these tariffs will strengthen U.S. manufacturing and create jobs, critics contend that they will fuel inflation, suppress employment, and perhaps tip the economy into a recession. As a demonstration of what will go wrong, many cite the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which raised U.S. ta
[2024-12-18] The power of real reality (record-bee.com)
Donald Trump has vowed to impose 25% tariffs on imported goods from Mexico and Canada unless, he says, those neighbors stem the flow of illegal migrants and drugs into the United States. Chinese imports, he adds, will be taxed an extra 10% unless Beijing cracks down on the production of the narcotic fentanyl.
Perhaps Trump is bluffing; it’s always hard to separate his bluster from his true intentions. But if he carries out his threats, the big losers will be American consumers — including a grea
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 1 | 0.265 | tariffs | polymarket | 519286 | 37.7 | 2025-01-21 | 2025-02-28 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people?
Background: During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes between 1,500,000 (inclusive) and 1,750,000 (exclusive) non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-12-31.
Current market price: 0.04
Price history: 14d ago: 0.02, 7d ago: 0.03, 3d ago: 0.05, 1d ago: 0.04
Time until resolution: 344 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-01-17] Israel - Hamas deal shows limits of US influence – and unpredictable impact of Trump | Opinion (pennlive.com)
(The Conversation is an independent and nonprofit source of news, analysis and commentary from academic experts.)
Authors: Gregory F. Treverton, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences
A ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas is expected to take effect on Jan. 19, 2025, according to U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Even as Israel’s cabinet delayed until Jan. 17 its vote to ratify the complex deal, Blinken said he is “very confident this is moving forward.”
The U.S., Qatar and
[2025-01-17] US Fed may pause rate cuts in January 2025 : Reuters poll (invezz.com)
Fed may pause rate cuts in January amid inflation concerns tied to Trump’s policies: Reuters poll
Mar 27, 2026, 16:02 PM
Central banks
Brazil central bank orders liquidation of Entrepay units over risks
Mar 27, 2026, 15:31 PM
Economic
Mexico swings to deficit as import surge outpaces export growth
Mar 27, 2026, 10:47 AM
Artificial intelligence
After Hormuz, is Taiwan the next economic shock no one is ready for?
Mar 27, 2026, 08:45 AM
Commodities
Another energy chokepoint? As Iran‑US war drags on
[2025-01-01] Year in review : A look at news events in February 2024 - Canada News (castanetkamloops.net)
Year in review: A look at news events in February 2024
Events in February 2024
A look at news events in February 2024:
01 - The federal government announces spending of an additional $362 million to help provinces and cities temporarily house asylum seekers. Immigration Minister Marc Miller called the interim housing assistance program a stopgap measure, saying the system needs to be rejigged to reflect a large flow of international migration that is not about to stop.
01 - Health Minister Mark
[2025-01-01] Editorial Roundup : United States (mynorthwest.com)
Editorial Roundup: United States
May 13, 2025, 10:32 AM
Excerpts from recent editorials in the United States and abroad:
___
May 9
The Washington Post says Donald Trump is destroying programs that help prepare for natural disasters
President Donald Trump’s administration is on a crusade against efforts to grapple with climate change. From the start of Trump’s second term, officials have halted clean energy projects or attempted to claw back funding for them, and, at the same time, they have fast
[2024-11-18] So How Will Trump Deport 20 Million ? - American Renaissance (amren.com)
So How Will Trump Deport 20 Million?
Caroline Graham, Daily Mail, November 16, 2024
When Donald Trump is inaugurated as America’s 47th president on January 20, the event will mark the official start of his second term in office with carefully stage-managed images that will be seen around the world.
Within hours of the event, Trump will take his seat behind the Resolute desk in the Oval Office and launch what he calls ‘the biggest mass deportation in American history’.
While the expulsion of ille
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.0365 | tariffs | polymarket | 517317 | 343.5 | 2025-01-22 | 2025-12-31 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will Trump impose tariffs on Mexico before March?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or his administration (including the Department of Commerce) impose any new or increased tariffs on Mexico by February 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-02-28.
Current market price: 0.76
Price history: 1d ago: 0.75
Time until resolution: 37 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-01-17] US Fed may pause rate cuts in January 2025 : Reuters poll (invezz.com)
Fed may pause rate cuts in January amid inflation concerns tied to Trump’s policies: Reuters poll
Mar 27, 2026, 16:02 PM
Central banks
Brazil central bank orders liquidation of Entrepay units over risks
Mar 27, 2026, 15:31 PM
Economic
Mexico swings to deficit as import surge outpaces export growth
Mar 27, 2026, 10:47 AM
Artificial intelligence
After Hormuz, is Taiwan the next economic shock no one is ready for?
Mar 27, 2026, 08:45 AM
Commodities
Another energy chokepoint? As Iran‑US war drags on
[2025-01-20] Trump said he will label Mexican cartels as terrorists in his inaugural speech. What’s at stake? | Mexico | The Guardian (theguardian.com)
Al-Qaida, Hezbollah, the Islamic State – the list of foreign terrorist organisations (FTOs) is a who’s who of America’s enemies. Now Donald Trump wants to add a new one: Mexican cartels.
Experts say the designation, which Trump confirmed in his inauguration speech on Monday, will not give the US many more tools to go after organised crime, and that it may simply be a threat to force more action from Mexico itself.
But some fear it could be the first step towards US military strikes in Mexican te
[2024-12-27] Trump tariff threat looms over interest rate path in 2025 (windsorstar.com)
Trump tariff threat looms over interest rate path in 2025
Even if the United States does not follow through on tariffs, the very threat could be a drag on business investment in Canada
Most economists a month ago likely would have told you that Canadian interest rates would steadily decline during the first half of 2025 before stabilizing in the third quarter.
But that was before United States president-elect Donald Trump introduced the threat of a 25 per cent tariff on all Canadian imports, a “
[2024-12-30] Where to invest in 2025 : Will Trump start a trade war and what next for the Magnificent Seven ? (dailymail.co.uk)
Where to invest in 2025: Will Trump start a trade war and what next for the Magnificent Seven?
Donald Trump's agenda of aggressive trade tariffs and tax cuts is set to dominate markets next year.
The returning US president is expected to be an even more disruptive force in his second term, with repercussions for geopolitics in the Middle East and Ukraine.
His policy plans have prompted a stock rally, but also sparked inflation fears and are already influencing the easing cycle of US interest rat
[2024-11-12] Mexican Peso sinks on tariff worries , traders eye Banxico decision (fxstreet.com)
Mexican Peso plunges for third straight day, US inflation data eyed
- Mexican Peso tumbles following Trump’s appointments of Mike Waltz and Marco Rubio.
- Banxico expected to cut rates by 25 bps amid heightened US-Mexico tensions.
- Upcoming US inflation and Retail Sales data to impact USD/MXN currency pair.
The Mexican Peso extends its losses against the Greenback on Tuesday on risk aversion due to US President-elect Donald Trump’s first appointments to his cabinet. Trump’s campaign proposals o
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 1 | 0.76 | tariffs | polymarket | 519288 | 36.7 | 2025-01-22 | 2025-02-28 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will Trump impose tariffs on Canada before March?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or his administration (including the Department of Commerce) impose any new or increased tariffs on Canada by February 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-02-28.
Current market price: 0.67
Price history: 1d ago: 0.64
Time until resolution: 36 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-01-22] Trump push to use tariffs to pay for tax cuts faces opposition in Congress (marketscreener.com)
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump is pushing a plan to explicitly use revenue from higher tariffs on imported goods to help pay for extending trillions of dollars in tax cuts, an unprecedented shift likely to face opposition from many of his fellow Republicans in Congress.
The U.S. collects less than $100 billion annually in trade penalties imposed on imported goods as a tool to protect and grow domestic industries. That money is rarely a topic in Washington's routine budget bat
[2025-01-17] US Fed may pause rate cuts in January 2025 : Reuters poll (invezz.com)
Fed may pause rate cuts in January amid inflation concerns tied to Trump’s policies: Reuters poll
Mar 27, 2026, 16:02 PM
Central banks
Brazil central bank orders liquidation of Entrepay units over risks
Mar 27, 2026, 15:31 PM
Economic
Mexico swings to deficit as import surge outpaces export growth
Mar 27, 2026, 10:47 AM
Artificial intelligence
After Hormuz, is Taiwan the next economic shock no one is ready for?
Mar 27, 2026, 08:45 AM
Commodities
Another energy chokepoint? As Iran‑US war drags on
[2024-12-27] Trump tariff threat looms over interest rate path in 2025 (financialpost.com)
Trump tariff threat looms over interest rate path in 2025
Even if the United States does not follow through on tariffs, the very threat could be a drag on business investment in Canada
Most economists a month ago likely would have told you that Canadian interest rates would steadily decline during the first half of 2025 before stabilizing in the third quarter.
But that was before United States president-elect Donald Trump introduced the threat of a 25 per cent tariff on all Canadian imports, a “
[2025-01-01] Trump serious threat to Canadian prosperity , business and foreign affairs leaders say (theglobeandmail.com)
Donald Trump’s willingness to use trade as a weapon represents an existential threat to Canada’s prosperity and requires this country to secure its economic independence – both by increasing its capacity to export resources to other markets and spending more on defence, a group of Canadian leaders in foreign affairs and business says.
“Our country faces the most serious threat to its sovereignty and economic prosperity since the Second World War,” says a statement by the Expert Group on Canada-U
[2024-11-29] Canada weighing how to retaliate if Trump imposes 25 % tariffs (cbsnews.com)
Canada weighing how to retaliate if Trump imposes 25% tariffs
Experts say a volley of tariffs between the U.S. and Canada could tip both countries into a recession and severely disrupt cross-border commerce between the key trading partners.
A Canadian government official said Wednesday it is exploring potential retaliatory levies on certain U.S. imports after President-elect Donald Trump on Monday threatened to impose a 25% tariff on all goods from Canada and Mexico on his first day in office. T
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 1 | 0.67 | tariffs | polymarket | 519287 | 36.1 | 2025-01-23 | 2025-02-28 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Tim Cook out as Apple CEO in 2025?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tim Cook is no longer serving as CEO of Apple for any length of time from the date of this market's inception, December 29, 2024 through December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement of Tim Cook's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Apple and/or Tim Cook, however a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-12-31.
Current market price: 0.15
Price history: 14d ago: 0.14, 7d ago: 0.15, 3d ago: 0.14, 1d ago: 0.15
Time until resolution: 341 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-01-23] The Paul Atkins Diet : Trump SEC Nominee Likely to Get Back to Basics , Trim Enforcement and Embrace Crypto | Shook , Hardy & Bacon L . L . P . (jdsupra.com)
Members of Shook, Hardy & Bacon LLP’s Government Investigations and White Collar Practice attended a Cornerstone Research event on December 11, 2024, about the outlook for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in the second administration of President Donald J. Trump, featuring former SEC Chairs Jay Clayton, who served as chair in first Trump administration and is now a nominee to be the U.S. Attorney of the Southern District of New York, and Joe Grundfest, who served as chair in adm
[2025-01-18] How TikTok grew from a fun app for teens into a potential national security threat (neworleanscitybusiness.com)
The Associated Press//January 17, 2025//
The Associated Press//January 17, 2025//
If it feels like TikTok has been around forever, that’s probably because it has, at least if you’re measuring via internet time. What’s now in question is whether it will be around much longer and, if so, in what form?
Starting in 2017, when the Chinese social video app merged with its competitor Musical.ly, TikTok has grown from a niche teen app into a global trendsetter. While, of course, also emerging as a poten
[2024-12-31] What do Tim Cook , Satya Nadella , and Sundar Pichai envision for the tech industry in 2025 ? (thehindu.com)
As another fork-in-the-road-esque time seems to be arriving for artificial intelligence, tech leaders mull over their next steps forward in 2025 with regard to user adoption, navigating a possible slowdown in pace of progress, and the matters of AGI.
Sundar Pichai, Google
Google CEO Sundar Pichai underlined how crucial 2025 will be at an internal meeting held recently. Admitting that the unwieldy size of the company had meant it was playing catch-up in artificial intelligence, he added that they
[2024-12-31] Stakes are high : Google CEO Sundar Pichai highlights AI strategy and challenges for 2025 (businesstoday.in)
Google CEO Sundar Pichai has set an ambitious tone for 2025, urging employees to accelerate innovation and remain focused amid fierce competition, regulatory pressures, and advancements in artificial intelligence. Speaking at a strategy meeting earlier in the month reported by CNBC, Pichai emphasised the need to deliver cutting-edge solutions, calling it a “critical” year for the company.
“I think 2025 will be critical,” Pichai told employees at the meeting held at Google’s Mountain View headqua
[2024-06-20] Steve Jobs would have hated Apple Intelligence (pocket-lint.com)
Summary
- Tim Cook has taken Apple to new heights, but his decisions, like the introduction of Apple Intelligence, may not align with what Steve Jobs would approve of.
- There have been many questions over the years about whether Jobs would approve of the product's modern Apple releases.
- Jobs was a visionary who believed in maintaining control over user experience, making Jobs' approval of ChatGPT integration unlikely.
It's safe to say that Apple isn't Steve Jobs' company anymore.
Yes, much of
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.15 | mna_corporate | polymarket | 516838 | 341.4 | 2025-01-24 | 2025-12-31 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will Trump impose tariffs on Canada before March?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or his administration (including the Department of Commerce) impose any new or increased tariffs on Canada by February 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-02-28.
Current market price: 0.73
Price history: 3d ago: 0.66, 1d ago: 0.74
Time until resolution: 34 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-01-22] Trump push to use tariffs to pay for tax cuts faces opposition in Congress (marketscreener.com)
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump is pushing a plan to explicitly use revenue from higher tariffs on imported goods to help pay for extending trillions of dollars in tax cuts, an unprecedented shift likely to face opposition from many of his fellow Republicans in Congress.
The U.S. collects less than $100 billion annually in trade penalties imposed on imported goods as a tool to protect and grow domestic industries. That money is rarely a topic in Washington's routine budget bat
[2025-01-24] We dont need them : Trump latest swipe draws skepticism from Canadian leaders (theprovince.com)
'We don't need them': Trump's latest swipe draws skepticism from Canadian leaders
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was quick to waive off Trump's words as empty rhetoric
Article content
OTTAWA — U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest swipe at Canada in virtual remarks to the World Economic Forum, telling attendees that the U.S. economy could get along just fine without Canadian imports, drew a skeptical response from Canadian leaders.
“We don’t need them to make our cars… we don’t need their lumber,
[2024-12-27] Trump tariff threat looms over interest rate path in 2025 (windsorstar.com)
Trump tariff threat looms over interest rate path in 2025
Even if the United States does not follow through on tariffs, the very threat could be a drag on business investment in Canada
Most economists a month ago likely would have told you that Canadian interest rates would steadily decline during the first half of 2025 before stabilizing in the third quarter.
But that was before United States president-elect Donald Trump introduced the threat of a 25 per cent tariff on all Canadian imports, a “
[2025-01-01] Trump serious threat to Canadian prosperity , business and foreign affairs leaders say (theglobeandmail.com)
Donald Trump’s willingness to use trade as a weapon represents an existential threat to Canada’s prosperity and requires this country to secure its economic independence – both by increasing its capacity to export resources to other markets and spending more on defence, a group of Canadian leaders in foreign affairs and business says.
“Our country faces the most serious threat to its sovereignty and economic prosperity since the Second World War,” says a statement by the Expert Group on Canada-U
[2024-11-29] Canada weighing how to retaliate if Trump imposes 25 % tariffs (cbsnews.com)
Canada weighing how to retaliate if Trump imposes 25% tariffs
Experts say a volley of tariffs between the U.S. and Canada could tip both countries into a recession and severely disrupt cross-border commerce between the key trading partners.
A Canadian government official said Wednesday it is exploring potential retaliatory levies on certain U.S. imports after President-elect Donald Trump on Monday threatened to impose a 25% tariff on all goods from Canada and Mexico on his first day in office. T
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 1 | 0.735 | tariffs | polymarket | 519287 | 34.5 | 2025-01-24 | 2025-02-28 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people?
Background: During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes between 750,000 (inclusive) and 1,000,000 (exclusive) non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-12-31.
Current market price: 0.12
Price history: 14d ago: 0.12, 7d ago: 0.14, 3d ago: 0.12, 1d ago: 0.12
Time until resolution: 340 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-01-24] If Trump succeeds in reinventing government , expect his plans to be the global blueprint (aol.co.uk)
Your privacy choices
If you click '
Accept all', we and
our partners, including 246 who are part of the IAB Transparency & Consent Framework, will also store and / or access information on a device (in other words, use cookies) and use precise geolocation data and other personal data such as
technical identifiers and browsing and search data, for analytics, personalised advertising and content, advertising and content measurement, and audience research and services development.
If you do not wan
[2025-01-20] Trump said he will label Mexican cartels as terrorists in his inaugural speech. What’s at stake? | Mexico | The Guardian (theguardian.com)
Al-Qaida, Hezbollah, the Islamic State – the list of foreign terrorist organisations (FTOs) is a who’s who of America’s enemies. Now Donald Trump wants to add a new one: Mexican cartels.
Experts say the designation, which Trump confirmed in his inauguration speech on Monday, will not give the US many more tools to go after organised crime, and that it may simply be a threat to force more action from Mexico itself.
But some fear it could be the first step towards US military strikes in Mexican te
[2025-01-01] Year in review : A look at news events in February 2024 - Canada News (castanetkamloops.net)
Year in review: A look at news events in February 2024
Events in February 2024
A look at news events in February 2024:
01 - The federal government announces spending of an additional $362 million to help provinces and cities temporarily house asylum seekers. Immigration Minister Marc Miller called the interim housing assistance program a stopgap measure, saying the system needs to be rejigged to reflect a large flow of international migration that is not about to stop.
01 - Health Minister Mark
[2025-01-01] Editorial Roundup : United States (mynorthwest.com)
Editorial Roundup: United States
May 13, 2025, 10:32 AM
Excerpts from recent editorials in the United States and abroad:
___
May 9
The Washington Post says Donald Trump is destroying programs that help prepare for natural disasters
President Donald Trump’s administration is on a crusade against efforts to grapple with climate change. From the start of Trump’s second term, officials have halted clean energy projects or attempted to claw back funding for them, and, at the same time, they have fast
[2024-11-18] So How Will Trump Deport 20 Million ? - American Renaissance (amren.com)
So How Will Trump Deport 20 Million?
Caroline Graham, Daily Mail, November 16, 2024
When Donald Trump is inaugurated as America’s 47th president on January 20, the event will mark the official start of his second term in office with carefully stage-managed images that will be seen around the world.
Within hours of the event, Trump will take his seat behind the Resolute desk in the Oval Office and launch what he calls ‘the biggest mass deportation in American history’.
While the expulsion of ille
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.115 | tariffs | polymarket | 517314 | 340.4 | 2025-01-25 | 2025-12-31 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Trump imposes 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico before March?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action enacting a general 25% or greater tariff on imports in to the United States from Mexico and Canada by February 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 25% or greater tariff on imports in to the United States from Mexico and Canada is enacted.
Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-02-28.
Current market price: 0.28
Price history: 3d ago: 0.18, 1d ago: 0.28
Time until resolution: 34 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-01-22] Trump push to use tariffs to pay for tax cuts faces opposition in Congress (marketscreener.com)
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump is pushing a plan to explicitly use revenue from higher tariffs on imported goods to help pay for extending trillions of dollars in tax cuts, an unprecedented shift likely to face opposition from many of his fellow Republicans in Congress.
The U.S. collects less than $100 billion annually in trade penalties imposed on imported goods as a tool to protect and grow domestic industries. That money is rarely a topic in Washington's routine budget bat
[2025-01-22] Roundup : Trump policy overhauls raise concern in Germany - Xinhua (english.news.cn)
BERLIN, Jan. 22 (Xinhua) -- Concerns have been raised in Germany over the potential impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's policy overhauls on German economy and international trade relations.
German Vice Chancellor and Minister of Economics Robert Habeck has warned that Germany is prepared to impose retaliatory tariffs if the United States proceeds with new import duties on German products.
Speaking at the Handelsblatt Energy Summit in Berlin on Tuesday, Habeck emphasized the need for an indep
[2024-12-27] Trump tariff threat looms over interest rate path in 2025 (windsorstar.com)
Trump tariff threat looms over interest rate path in 2025
Even if the United States does not follow through on tariffs, the very threat could be a drag on business investment in Canada
Most economists a month ago likely would have told you that Canadian interest rates would steadily decline during the first half of 2025 before stabilizing in the third quarter.
But that was before United States president-elect Donald Trump introduced the threat of a 25 per cent tariff on all Canadian imports, a “
[2024-12-27] How Tariffs Can Help America (foreignaffairs.com)
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has promised to implement a suite of aggressive tariffs on American trade partners, including a blanket 20 percent levy on goods from abroad. Although his supporters claim that these tariffs will strengthen U.S. manufacturing and create jobs, critics contend that they will fuel inflation, suppress employment, and perhaps tip the economy into a recession. As a demonstration of what will go wrong, many cite the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which raised U.S. ta
[2024-12-18] The power of real reality (record-bee.com)
Donald Trump has vowed to impose 25% tariffs on imported goods from Mexico and Canada unless, he says, those neighbors stem the flow of illegal migrants and drugs into the United States. Chinese imports, he adds, will be taxed an extra 10% unless Beijing cracks down on the production of the narcotic fentanyl.
Perhaps Trump is bluffing; it’s always hard to separate his bluster from his true intentions. But if he carries out his threats, the big losers will be American consumers — including a grea
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 1 | 0.275 | tariffs | polymarket | 519286 | 34.3 | 2025-01-25 | 2025-02-28 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will Trump impose tariffs on Mexico before March?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or his administration (including the Department of Commerce) impose any new or increased tariffs on Mexico by February 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-02-28.
Current market price: 0.69
Price history: 3d ago: 0.71, 1d ago: 0.73
Time until resolution: 32 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-01-27] President Trump Issues America First Trade Policy And Previews Additional Tariffs On Canada , Mexico , And China (mondaq.com)
- with readers working within the Insurance industries
This alert was originally published on January 21, 2025, and updated on January 22, 2025, to reflect President Trump's comments that additional 10% tariffs may be imposed on China on February 1.
On January 20, 2025, President Trump issued a broad-based memorandum to federal agency heads directing agencies to implement an "America First" trade policy. The memorandum references the policies of the President's first term and, in continuation of
[2025-01-22] Trump push to use tariffs to pay for tax cuts faces opposition in Congress (marketscreener.com)
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump is pushing a plan to explicitly use revenue from higher tariffs on imported goods to help pay for extending trillions of dollars in tax cuts, an unprecedented shift likely to face opposition from many of his fellow Republicans in Congress.
The U.S. collects less than $100 billion annually in trade penalties imposed on imported goods as a tool to protect and grow domestic industries. That money is rarely a topic in Washington's routine budget bat
[2025-01-17] US Fed may pause rate cuts in January 2025 : Reuters poll (invezz.com)
Fed may pause rate cuts in January amid inflation concerns tied to Trump’s policies: Reuters poll
Mar 27, 2026, 16:02 PM
Central banks
Brazil central bank orders liquidation of Entrepay units over risks
Mar 27, 2026, 15:31 PM
Economic
Mexico swings to deficit as import surge outpaces export growth
Mar 27, 2026, 10:47 AM
Artificial intelligence
After Hormuz, is Taiwan the next economic shock no one is ready for?
Mar 27, 2026, 08:45 AM
Commodities
Another energy chokepoint? As Iran‑US war drags on
[2024-12-30] Where to invest in 2025 : Will Trump start a trade war and what next for the Magnificent Seven ? (dailymail.co.uk)
Where to invest in 2025: Will Trump start a trade war and what next for the Magnificent Seven?
Donald Trump's agenda of aggressive trade tariffs and tax cuts is set to dominate markets next year.
The returning US president is expected to be an even more disruptive force in his second term, with repercussions for geopolitics in the Middle East and Ukraine.
His policy plans have prompted a stock rally, but also sparked inflation fears and are already influencing the easing cycle of US interest rat
[2024-11-12] Mexican Peso sinks on tariff worries , traders eye Banxico decision (fxstreet.com)
Mexican Peso plunges for third straight day, US inflation data eyed
- Mexican Peso tumbles following Trump’s appointments of Mike Waltz and Marco Rubio.
- Banxico expected to cut rates by 25 bps amid heightened US-Mexico tensions.
- Upcoming US inflation and Retail Sales data to impact USD/MXN currency pair.
The Mexican Peso extends its losses against the Greenback on Tuesday on risk aversion due to US President-elect Donald Trump’s first appointments to his cabinet. Trump’s campaign proposals o
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 1 | 0.69 | tariffs | polymarket | 519288 | 31.9 | 2025-01-27 | 2025-02-28 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before July?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by June 30, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-06-30.
Current market price: 0.12
Price history: 14d ago: 0.10, 7d ago: 0.12, 3d ago: 0.10, 1d ago: 0.12
Time until resolution: 152 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2024-12-31] Sundar Pichai : 2025 Critical For Google , Focus On AI - IndiaWest Journal News (indiawest.com)
Sundar Pichai: 2025 Critical For Google, Focus On AI
India-West News Desk
MOUNTAIN VIEW, CA – Google CEO Sundar Pichai has set the stage for 2025 to be a pivotal year for the company, emphasizing the rapid evolution of artificial intelligence (AI) and the need for swift action. During a strategy meeting recently, Pichai urged staff to “internalize the urgency of this moment” as the company faces a defining period in the AI landscape.
“The stakes are high,” Pichai remarked, according to a CNBC re
[2024-12-31] What do Tim Cook , Satya Nadella , and Sundar Pichai envision for the tech industry in 2025 ? (thehindu.com)
As another fork-in-the-road-esque time seems to be arriving for artificial intelligence, tech leaders mull over their next steps forward in 2025 with regard to user adoption, navigating a possible slowdown in pace of progress, and the matters of AGI.
Sundar Pichai, Google
Google CEO Sundar Pichai underlined how crucial 2025 will be at an internal meeting held recently. Admitting that the unwieldy size of the company had meant it was playing catch-up in artificial intelligence, he added that they
[2024-02-09] superAI | NextBigFuture . com (nextbigfuture.com)
OpenAI $500 Billion Valuation EXPOSED. REVEALING the Surprising AI Stock Winners in 2026
OpenAI is winning AI in 2025. They are valued at $500 billion and have nearly 1 billion users. With the huge pace of deals and construction, who wins AI in 2026? Does AMD come from behind to seriously challenge AMD? Who can seriously challenge OpenAI? Brian WangBrian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a …
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.125 | ai_sector | polymarket | 516977 | 152 | 2025-01-29 | 2025-06-30 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before April?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman is no longer serving as CEO of OpenAI for any length of time from the date of this market's inception, December 29, 2024 through March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement of Sam Altman's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from OpenAI and/or Sam Altman, however a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-03-31.
Current market price: 0.06
Price history: 14d ago: 0.07, 7d ago: 0.05, 3d ago: 0.04, 1d ago: 0.06
Time until resolution: 61 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-01-27] Crypto Brief - Newsletter - January 24 , 2025 | Lowenstein Sandler LLP (jdsupra.com)
Lowenstein Crypto advises leading digital asset and cryptocurrency projects, exchanges, and trading firms. Our practice covers regulatory advice, transactions and structuring advice, investigations, and adversarial matters including commercial disputes, bankruptcy, and related litigation. As these markets continue their rapid growth and market participants continue to evolve and mature their businesses, we are providing this weekly digest as a resource that highlights and summarizes a selection
[2025-01-23] MACAU DAILY TIMES 澳門每日時報China and US are moving closer as Trump returns to the White House (macaudailytimes.com.mo)
China’s relations are starting to improve with Japan, India and other countries that former U.S. President Joe Biden courted, just as Donald Trump brings his more unilateralist approach back to the White House.
The change of leadership in Washington this week could be an opportunity for China, which has long railed against Biden’s strategy of building partnerships with “like-minded countries” aimed at countering its growing influence.
Biden reinvigorated a grouping known as the Quad — the United
[2024-12-31] Stakes are high : Google CEO Sundar Pichai highlights AI strategy and challenges for 2025 (businesstoday.in)
Google CEO Sundar Pichai has set an ambitious tone for 2025, urging employees to accelerate innovation and remain focused amid fierce competition, regulatory pressures, and advancements in artificial intelligence. Speaking at a strategy meeting earlier in the month reported by CNBC, Pichai emphasised the need to deliver cutting-edge solutions, calling it a “critical” year for the company.
“I think 2025 will be critical,” Pichai told employees at the meeting held at Google’s Mountain View headqua
[2024-12-31] Sundar Pichai : 2025 Critical For Google , Focus On AI - IndiaWest Journal News (indiawest.com)
Sundar Pichai: 2025 Critical For Google, Focus On AI
India-West News Desk
MOUNTAIN VIEW, CA – Google CEO Sundar Pichai has set the stage for 2025 to be a pivotal year for the company, emphasizing the rapid evolution of artificial intelligence (AI) and the need for swift action. During a strategy meeting recently, Pichai urged staff to “internalize the urgency of this moment” as the company faces a defining period in the AI landscape.
“The stakes are high,” Pichai remarked, according to a CNBC re
[2024-03-17] OpenAI CEO Receives Hope From The Middle East For His Huge Chip Ambitions , Funding Deal In Progress (wccftech.com)
OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman might finally see hope for his vast "financial ambition" as an Abu Dhabi investment company initiates funding deal discussions with OpenAI.
OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman Ambitions To Raise $7 Trillion Might Be Absurd, But He Hasn't Given Up Just Yet
Financial Times reports that country-funded MGX has started to devise a plan to collaborate with OpenAI to achieve its future ambitions as UAE seeks its take on the AI markets. The country is planning to develop a robust AI infrastr
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.061 | ai_sector | polymarket | 517896 | 61.4 | 2025-01-29 | 2025-03-31 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Trump imposes 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico before March?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action enacting a general 25% or greater tariff on imports in to the United States from Mexico and Canada by February 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 25% or greater tariff on imports in to the United States from Mexico and Canada is enacted.
Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-02-28.
Current market price: 0.36
Price history: 7d ago: 0.18, 3d ago: 0.28, 1d ago: 0.34
Time until resolution: 30 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-01-27] President Trump Issues America First Trade Policy And Previews Additional Tariffs On Canada , Mexico , And China (mondaq.com)
- with readers working within the Insurance industries
This alert was originally published on January 21, 2025, and updated on January 22, 2025, to reflect President Trump's comments that additional 10% tariffs may be imposed on China on February 1.
On January 20, 2025, President Trump issued a broad-based memorandum to federal agency heads directing agencies to implement an "America First" trade policy. The memorandum references the policies of the President's first term and, in continuation of
[2025-01-29] America First Trade Policy : President Trump Orders Review Ahead of Potential Tariffs on China and Other Trading Partners | DLA Piper (jdsupra.com)
Tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China could go into effect on February 1; agencies have until April 1 to report findings and provide recommendations.
“My message to every business in the world is very simple: Come make your product in America and we will give you among the lowest taxes of any nation on Earth. But if you don’t make your product in America, which is your prerogative, then, very simply, you will have to pay a tariff.”
President Donald Trump,
virtually addressing the World Economic F
[2025-01-01] Trump serious threat to Canadian prosperity , business and foreign affairs leaders say (theglobeandmail.com)
Donald Trump’s willingness to use trade as a weapon represents an existential threat to Canada’s prosperity and requires this country to secure its economic independence – both by increasing its capacity to export resources to other markets and spending more on defence, a group of Canadian leaders in foreign affairs and business says.
“Our country faces the most serious threat to its sovereignty and economic prosperity since the Second World War,” says a statement by the Expert Group on Canada-U
[2025-01-17] US Fed may pause rate cuts in January 2025 : Reuters poll (invezz.com)
Fed may pause rate cuts in January amid inflation concerns tied to Trump’s policies: Reuters poll
Mar 27, 2026, 16:02 PM
Central banks
Brazil central bank orders liquidation of Entrepay units over risks
Mar 27, 2026, 15:31 PM
Economic
Mexico swings to deficit as import surge outpaces export growth
Mar 27, 2026, 10:47 AM
Artificial intelligence
After Hormuz, is Taiwan the next economic shock no one is ready for?
Mar 27, 2026, 08:45 AM
Commodities
Another energy chokepoint? As Iran‑US war drags on
[2024-12-18] The power of real reality (record-bee.com)
Donald Trump has vowed to impose 25% tariffs on imported goods from Mexico and Canada unless, he says, those neighbors stem the flow of illegal migrants and drugs into the United States. Chinese imports, he adds, will be taxed an extra 10% unless Beijing cracks down on the production of the narcotic fentanyl.
Perhaps Trump is bluffing; it’s always hard to separate his bluster from his true intentions. But if he carries out his threats, the big losers will be American consumers — including a grea
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 1 | 0.36 | tariffs | polymarket | 519286 | 29.9 | 2025-01-29 | 2025-02-28 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair?
Background: Trump's Treasury Secretary pick Scott Bessent has floated the idea of Trump naming a successor to Jerome Powell to serve as a "shadow chair", prior to the end of Powell's term, scheduled for May 2026 (see: https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/business/money-report/fed-chair-jerome-powell-can-serve-remainder-of-term-says-trumps-treasury-pick-bessent/3788991/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump announces Arthur Laffer as his pick for Federal Reserve Chair by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will, resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information form Donald Trump or one of his official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-06-30.
Current market price: 0.02
Price history: 30d ago: 0.01, 14d ago: 0.10, 7d ago: 0.01, 3d ago: 0.02, 1d ago: 0.02
Time until resolution: 150 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-01-30] Kash Patel , facing questions about his independence , says FBI reform is his focus (npr.org)
Trump's FBI director pick, Kash Patel, faces confirmation hearing
STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
President Trump's pick to run the FBI will testify today in front of a Senate committee. Kash Patel is a former prosecutor and also an aide in the first Trump administration who is notable for his fealty to the president. Like Trump, he is openly hostile to the agency that he proposes to lead. He once wrote a children's book about a plot against a king who was Donald Trump. Some senators have questions. NPR po
[2025-01-30] Kash Patel , Tulsi Gabbard and others face confirmation hearings today (fox9.com)
Kash Patel, Tulsi Gabbard and others conclude confirmation hearings today
Three of President Donald Trump’s cabinet picks finished their confirmation hearings on Thursday.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Tulsi Gabbard and Kash Patel were questioned by Democratic senators.
Thursday’s confirmation hearings highlights
Republican senator wants to know: Would Tulsi Gabbard give Russia a pass?
Republicans as well as Democrats criticized President Donald Trump’s pick for national intelligence director, condemni
[2025-01-17] 5 Takeaways From Bessent Confirmation Hearing for Treasury Secretary (theepochtimes.com)
Nominee for secretary of the Department of the Treasury Scott Bessent has vowed that when President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House, he will unleash “a new economic golden age.”
Bessent, a billionaire hedge fund manager, appeared before the Senate Finance Committee for his confirmation hearing in Washington on Jan. 16. Democrats asked questions about tax policy, tariffs, and other pressing economic issues.
[2025-01-21] President Trump appoints Mark Uyeda acting SEC chair (foxbusiness.com)
President Trump appoints Mark Uyeda acting SEC chair
Uyeda is poised to begin reversing some of Gensler's policies
According to a memo from the White House Monday afternoon, President Donald Trump has tapped GOP Commissioner Mark Uyeda to lead the Securities and Exchange Commission as acting chair.
The appointment follows Trump’s official swearing-in ceremony on Monday morning.
Uyeda, who is currently serving his second of a five-year term at the SEC, will serve as the interim head of Wall Stree
[2024-03-25] J . D . FOSTER : Congress Should Fix When The Fed Chair Is Picked (dailycaller.com)
The Wall Street Journal reported last week that former President Donald Trump met with Art Laffer and Steve Moore, two of his former advisors, to present possible successors to Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell.
Laffer and Moore suggested either former Trump Council of Economic Advisers Chair Kevin Hasset, former Fed board of governors member Kevin Warsh, or even Laffer himself. These are respectable options. Trump’s problem is he would likely have to wait until after the 2026 mid-terms bef
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.022 | fed_macro | polymarket | 515450 | 150.5 | 2025-01-30 | 2025-06-30 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 7?
Background: This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on February 7, 2025, as of market close. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-02-07.
Current market price: 0.03
Price history: 1d ago: 0.06
Time until resolution: 8 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-01-27] Crypto Brief - Newsletter - January 24 , 2025 | Lowenstein Sandler LLP (jdsupra.com)
Lowenstein Crypto advises leading digital asset and cryptocurrency projects, exchanges, and trading firms. Our practice covers regulatory advice, transactions and structuring advice, investigations, and adversarial matters including commercial disputes, bankruptcy, and related litigation. As these markets continue their rapid growth and market participants continue to evolve and mature their businesses, we are providing this weekly digest as a resource that highlights and summarizes a selection
[2025-01-28] Will Sir Keir Starmer win his battle against Nimbys to deliver the growth Britain needs ? (news.sky.com)
Will Sir Keir Starmer win his battle against Nimbys to deliver the growth Britain needs?
Successive governments have been unable to deliver on exactly this - but Sir Keir and his chancellor hope their 163 majority will make the difference.
Tuesday 28 January 2025 04:28, UK
Over the last week, Sir Keir Starmer's government has fired the starting gun on the biggest domestic fight of this parliament on his highest priority issue.
Yet it's a battle this government is far from certain to win, and the
[2024-12-31] 2024 Stock Market News : Economy Avoids Hard Landing (investors.com)
Leading the stock market news of 2024, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq enjoyed one of their best years on record. Magnificent Seven stocks like Nvidia (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), Meta Platforms (META), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Tesla (TSLA) rode the continued artificial intelligence boom to all-time highs. Click here for an enlarged chart showing the 2024 stock market news. 100 Best Stocks Of…
Related news
Dow, Nasdaq In Correction Territory As Rubio Says Iran War Could End 'In Weeks;' Powell Due
3/27/2026 The Nasd
[2024-12-31] Dow Jones Futures : Stock Market Ends 2024 On A Weak Note ; Tesla Deliveries Due (investors.com)
Dow Jones futures rose strongly Thursday morning, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures, as global markets kick off 2025. The stock market ended a strong 2024 on a weak note. The Nasdaq fell for a fourth straight session, nearing key support that other indexes have already broken. CyberArk Software (CYBR) made a bullish move Tuesday, but recent buys…
Related news
Dow Jones Futures: Market Dives As Oil Prices Hit $100 In Iran War; What To Do Now
3/27/2026 The major indexes sold off to hit
[2024-06-14] When Will the Boom / Bust Rollercoaster End ? (investing.com)
Macquarie updates 2026 outlook for gold and silver. Here are the new targets
How can we know for sure the stock market is in a bubble? NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) has been up 155% year to date; its market cap is over $3 trillion. The company has gained the equivalent of Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) in just six months. And it is responsible for just over half of the S&P 500 gains this year.
For comparison, the equal-weight S&P is up just over 4% this year. NVDA has added the equivalent of Berkshire Hathaway's (
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.0345 | ai_sector | polymarket | 520294 | 7.9 | 2025-01-30 | 2025-02-07 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?
Background: This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28, 2025, as of market close. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-02-28.
Current market price: 0.14
Price history: 1d ago: 0.15
Time until resolution: 29 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-01-27] Crypto Brief - Newsletter - January 24 , 2025 | Lowenstein Sandler LLP (jdsupra.com)
Lowenstein Crypto advises leading digital asset and cryptocurrency projects, exchanges, and trading firms. Our practice covers regulatory advice, transactions and structuring advice, investigations, and adversarial matters including commercial disputes, bankruptcy, and related litigation. As these markets continue their rapid growth and market participants continue to evolve and mature their businesses, we are providing this weekly digest as a resource that highlights and summarizes a selection
[2025-01-28] Will Sir Keir Starmer win his battle against Nimbys to deliver the growth Britain needs ? (news.sky.com)
Will Sir Keir Starmer win his battle against Nimbys to deliver the growth Britain needs?
Successive governments have been unable to deliver on exactly this - but Sir Keir and his chancellor hope their 163 majority will make the difference.
Tuesday 28 January 2025 04:28, UK
Over the last week, Sir Keir Starmer's government has fired the starting gun on the biggest domestic fight of this parliament on his highest priority issue.
Yet it's a battle this government is far from certain to win, and the
[2024-12-31] 2024 Stock Market News : Economy Avoids Hard Landing (investors.com)
Leading the stock market news of 2024, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq enjoyed one of their best years on record. Magnificent Seven stocks like Nvidia (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), Meta Platforms (META), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Tesla (TSLA) rode the continued artificial intelligence boom to all-time highs. Click here for an enlarged chart showing the 2024 stock market news. 100 Best Stocks Of…
Related news
Dow, Nasdaq In Correction Territory As Rubio Says Iran War Could End 'In Weeks;' Powell Due
3/27/2026 The Nasd
[2024-12-31] Dow Jones Futures : Stock Market Ends 2024 On A Weak Note ; Tesla Deliveries Due (investors.com)
Dow Jones futures rose strongly Thursday morning, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures, as global markets kick off 2025. The stock market ended a strong 2024 on a weak note. The Nasdaq fell for a fourth straight session, nearing key support that other indexes have already broken. CyberArk Software (CYBR) made a bullish move Tuesday, but recent buys…
Related news
Dow Jones Futures: Market Dives As Oil Prices Hit $100 In Iran War; What To Do Now
3/27/2026 The major indexes sold off to hit
[2024-06-14] When Will the Boom / Bust Rollercoaster End ? (investing.com)
Macquarie updates 2026 outlook for gold and silver. Here are the new targets
How can we know for sure the stock market is in a bubble? NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) has been up 155% year to date; its market cap is over $3 trillion. The company has gained the equivalent of Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) in just six months. And it is responsible for just over half of the S&P 500 gains this year.
For comparison, the equal-weight S&P is up just over 4% this year. NVDA has added the equivalent of Berkshire Hathaway's (
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.145 | ai_sector | polymarket | 520331 | 28.9 | 2025-01-30 | 2025-02-28 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will Trump remove Jerome Powell in first 100 days?
Background: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to be the Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve for any period of time between January 20, 2025 ET (inclusive) and April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-04-29.
Current market price: 0.07
Price history: 60d ago: 0.09, 30d ago: 0.07, 14d ago: 0.07, 7d ago: 0.07, 3d ago: 0.07, 1d ago: 0.07
Time until resolution: 88 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-01-30] Powell says Fed in no hurry to cut rates (taipeitimes.com)
The US Federal Reserve is in no “hurry” to adjust interest rates again, central bank Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday, after policymakers voted to pause rate cuts in the first decision since Donald Trump’s White House return.
The Fed’s rate-setting committee voted unanimously to keep the bank’s benchmark lending rate at between 4.25 percent and 4.5 percent, the Fed announced in a statement.
“With our policy stance significantly less restrictive than it had been, and the economy remaining
[2025-01-29] European Central Bank to cut rates again with Trump threat and U . S . divergence in focus (nbcnewyork.com)
- The European Central Bank is set to kick off its 2025 meetings with another interest rate cut on Thursday, as traders aim to gauge how far it is willing to diverge from a stalled Federal Reserve.
- Money markets were on Wednesday pricing in 35 basis points worth of rate cuts for the January meeting, indicating the euro zone's central bank will cut by at least a quarter-percentage point.
- A key question is whether the ECB is comfortable with the increasing distance between its own monetary pol
[2025-01-21] Who Donald Trump Could Pardon in His First 100 Days (newsweek.com)
As speculation grows about possible pardons under the new administration, bettors on the online prediction platform Polymarket have shared their forecasts for who could receive clemency in President Donald Trump's first 100 days.
Newsweek has contacted the White House for comment on Polymarket's list of potential Trump pardonees.
Why It Matters
Polymarket, which gained prominence and credibility for correctly calling the results of the 2024 election, calculates odds based on how many "shares" us
[2025-01-01] Theyre Going To Get Worse : Leading Economist Predicts Turmoil Ahead As Trump Inherits Biden Economy (dailycaller.com)
As President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office, leading economist Peter Schiff warned Tuesday on Newsmax of the impending economic challenges he will inherit.
During an appearance on “Newsmax New Year’s Eve With Shaun Kraisman,” Schiff said the problems within the U.S. economy have been largely overlooked by investors, which contributed to Trump’s electoral win. The economist suggested drastic measures as Trump faces these turmoils, including substantial cuts to government spending, ent
[2024-11-08] Fed Chair Jerome Powell says he wont resign if Donald Trump asks him to step down (cbsnews.com)
Fed Chair Jerome Powell says he won't resign if Donald Trump asks him to step down
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said he won't step down if President-elect Donald Trump, who has previously criticized Powell's performance, asks him to resign.
Speaking at a press conference Thursday to discuss the Fed's move today to cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, Powell added that it is not permitted under the law for presidents to fire or demote the Fed chair.
When asked if he'd
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.065 | fed_macro | polymarket | 512312 | 88.3 | 2025-01-31 | 2025-04-29 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or his administration (including the Department of Commerce) impose any new or increased tariffs on the listed country by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-04-29.
Current market price: 0.36
Price history: 1d ago: 0.23
Time until resolution: 88 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-01-31] US braces for new Trump tariffs as deadline nears (merimbulanewsweekly.com.au)
US President Donald Trump says he will impose hefty new tariffs of 25 per cent on goods from Mexico and Canada and 10 per cent on imports from China, and nothing can be done by the three countries to forestall them.
Trump did, however, reference a potential carve out for oil from Canada, saying that rate would be 10 per cent versus the 25 per cent planned for other goods from the United States' northern neighbour. But he indicated wider tariffs on oil and natural gas would be coming in mid-Febru
[2025-01-27] President Trump Issues America First Trade Policy And Previews Additional Tariffs On Canada , Mexico , And China (mondaq.com)
- with readers working within the Insurance industries
This alert was originally published on January 21, 2025, and updated on January 22, 2025, to reflect President Trump's comments that additional 10% tariffs may be imposed on China on February 1.
On January 20, 2025, President Trump issued a broad-based memorandum to federal agency heads directing agencies to implement an "America First" trade policy. The memorandum references the policies of the President's first term and, in continuation of
[2025-01-22] Trump push to use tariffs to pay for tax cuts faces opposition in Congress (marketscreener.com)
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump is pushing a plan to explicitly use revenue from higher tariffs on imported goods to help pay for extending trillions of dollars in tax cuts, an unprecedented shift likely to face opposition from many of his fellow Republicans in Congress.
The U.S. collects less than $100 billion annually in trade penalties imposed on imported goods as a tool to protect and grow domestic industries. That money is rarely a topic in Washington's routine budget bat
[2025-01-22] Roundup : Trump policy overhauls raise concern in Germany - Xinhua (english.news.cn)
BERLIN, Jan. 22 (Xinhua) -- Concerns have been raised in Germany over the potential impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's policy overhauls on German economy and international trade relations.
German Vice Chancellor and Minister of Economics Robert Habeck has warned that Germany is prepared to impose retaliatory tariffs if the United States proceeds with new import duties on German products.
Speaking at the Handelsblatt Energy Summit in Berlin on Tuesday, Habeck emphasized the need for an indep
[2024-11-29] Big EU economies must reform as Donald Trump tariffs loom | Kenneth Rogoff (theguardian.com)
As Europe prepares for a potential trade war after the US president-elect, Donald Trump, takes office in January, its two largest economies are struggling. While Germany is heading into its second consecutive year of zero growth, France is expected to grow by less than 1% in 2025.
Is Europe’s economic stagnation the result of insufficient Keynesian stimulus, or are its bloated and sclerotic welfare states to blame? Either way, it is clear that those who believe simple measures such as higher bud
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.36 | tariffs | polymarket | 520684 | 87.6 | 2025-01-31 | 2025-04-29 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will Trump impose tariff on oil from Mexico or Canada by next Friday?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or his administration (including the Department of Commerce) impose any new or increased tariffs on crude petroleum imports into the United States from Mexico or Canada by February 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-02-07.
Current market price: 0.14
Time until resolution: 7 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-01-31] US braces for new Trump tariffs as deadline nears (merimbulanewsweekly.com.au)
US President Donald Trump says he will impose hefty new tariffs of 25 per cent on goods from Mexico and Canada and 10 per cent on imports from China, and nothing can be done by the three countries to forestall them.
Trump did, however, reference a potential carve out for oil from Canada, saying that rate would be 10 per cent versus the 25 per cent planned for other goods from the United States' northern neighbour. But he indicated wider tariffs on oil and natural gas would be coming in mid-Febru
[2025-01-31] Tariffs on Canada and Mexico could hurt Trump quest for US energy dominance (atlanticcouncil.org)
Tariffs are back. President Donald Trump has threatened to levy tariffs on imports from not only China, but also longstanding US partners such as Canada, Mexico, and Colombia, among others. Raising import taxes on crude oil imports from these countries, especially Canada and Mexico, could have huge implications for US energy prices, especially in the US Midwest. A trade dispute could also have lasting geopolitical ramifications. Chinese refineries, for example, might use the uncertainty of US po
[2025-01-22] Trump push to use tariffs to pay for tax cuts faces opposition in Congress (yahoo.com)
Trump push to use tariffs to pay for tax cuts faces opposition in Congress
- President Trump is proposing to use revenue from higher tariffs on imported goods to help pay for extending tax cuts, a move likely to face opposition from some Republicans in Congress.
By Jarrett Renshaw, David Morgan and David Lawder
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump is pushing a plan to explicitly use revenue from higher tariffs on imported goods to help pay for extending trillions of dollars in tax
[2025-01-17] US Fed may pause rate cuts in January 2025 : Reuters poll (invezz.com)
Fed may pause rate cuts in January amid inflation concerns tied to Trump’s policies: Reuters poll
Mar 27, 2026, 16:02 PM
Central banks
Brazil central bank orders liquidation of Entrepay units over risks
Mar 27, 2026, 15:31 PM
Economic
Mexico swings to deficit as import surge outpaces export growth
Mar 27, 2026, 10:47 AM
Artificial intelligence
After Hormuz, is Taiwan the next economic shock no one is ready for?
Mar 27, 2026, 08:45 AM
Commodities
Another energy chokepoint? As Iran‑US war drags on
[2024-12-18] The power of real reality (record-bee.com)
Donald Trump has vowed to impose 25% tariffs on imported goods from Mexico and Canada unless, he says, those neighbors stem the flow of illegal migrants and drugs into the United States. Chinese imports, he adds, will be taxed an extra 10% unless Beijing cracks down on the production of the narcotic fentanyl.
Perhaps Trump is bluffing; it’s always hard to separate his bluster from his true intentions. But if he carries out his threats, the big losers will be American consumers — including a grea
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 1 | 0.135 | tariffs | polymarket | 521118 | 6.7 | 2025-01-31 | 2025-02-07 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will Trump remove Jerome Powell in first 100 days?
Background: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to be the Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve for any period of time between January 20, 2025 ET (inclusive) and April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-04-29.
Current market price: 0.07
Price history: 60d ago: 0.09, 30d ago: 0.07, 14d ago: 0.07, 7d ago: 0.07, 3d ago: 0.07, 1d ago: 0.07
Time until resolution: 87 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-01-30] Powell says Fed in no hurry to cut rates (taipeitimes.com)
The US Federal Reserve is in no “hurry” to adjust interest rates again, central bank Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday, after policymakers voted to pause rate cuts in the first decision since Donald Trump’s White House return.
The Fed’s rate-setting committee voted unanimously to keep the bank’s benchmark lending rate at between 4.25 percent and 4.5 percent, the Fed announced in a statement.
“With our policy stance significantly less restrictive than it had been, and the economy remaining
[2025-02-01] La resistencia de Jerome Powell | Diario Financiero (df.cl)
“No voy a responder ni hacer ningún comentario sobre lo que dijo el Presidente. No me corresponde hacerlo”. Tajante fue la respuesta del líder de la Reserva Federal, Jerome Powell, al ser consultado esta semana por las declaraciones de Donald Trump acerca de la institución monetaria.
El 23 de enero pasado, solo cuatros días después de su segundo arribo a la Casa Blanca, el Presidente de EEUU interpeló directamente a la Fed, en su intervención en el Foro Económico Mundial de Davos, señalando: “Ex
[2025-01-21] Who Donald Trump Could Pardon in His First 100 Days (newsweek.com)
As speculation grows about possible pardons under the new administration, bettors on the online prediction platform Polymarket have shared their forecasts for who could receive clemency in President Donald Trump's first 100 days.
Newsweek has contacted the White House for comment on Polymarket's list of potential Trump pardonees.
Why It Matters
Polymarket, which gained prominence and credibility for correctly calling the results of the 2024 election, calculates odds based on how many "shares" us
[2025-01-18] How did Donald Trump deal with crypto during his first term ? (cointelegraph.com)
With Donald Trump scheduled to be inaugurated for a second term as US President on Jan. 20, many crypto industry insiders have said they expect the administration to strike a different tone on digital assets than it did before.
The former Republican president first took office in January 2017, a few months after winning a close election against former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Unlike the 2024 election cycle, Trump did not appear to have mentioned cryptocurrency, blockchain or Bitcoi
[2024-11-08] Fed Chair Jerome Powell says he wont resign if Donald Trump asks him to step down (cbsnews.com)
Fed Chair Jerome Powell says he won't resign if Donald Trump asks him to step down
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said he won't step down if President-elect Donald Trump, who has previously criticized Powell's performance, asks him to resign.
Speaking at a press conference Thursday to discuss the Fed's move today to cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, Powell added that it is not permitted under the law for presidents to fire or demote the Fed chair.
When asked if he'd
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.065 | fed_macro | polymarket | 512312 | 87 | 2025-02-01 | 2025-04-29 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will Trump create External Revenue Service in first 100 days?
Background: On January 14, Donald Trump announced that he would create an "External Revenue Service" tasked with collecting tariffs and other forms of revenue from foreign nations. You can read more about that here: https://apnews.com/article/irs-trump-tax-revenues-tariffs-eef2ab6930a8672a418af27f61efaed8
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump as President of the United States signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, that has the effect of creating an External Revenue Service. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any law or executive action meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
The title of such an agency may vary, however any agency established with the express purpose of collecting tariffs and/or other forms of revenue from foreign nations will count toward a "Yes" resolution.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-04-29.
Current market price: 0.59
Price history: 14d ago: 0.49, 7d ago: 0.58, 3d ago: 0.60, 1d ago: 0.60
Time until resolution: 87 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-01-29] America First Trade Policy : President Trump Orders Review Ahead of Potential Tariffs on China and Other Trading Partners | DLA Piper (jdsupra.com)
Tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China could go into effect on February 1; agencies have until April 1 to report findings and provide recommendations.
“My message to every business in the world is very simple: Come make your product in America and we will give you among the lowest taxes of any nation on Earth. But if you don’t make your product in America, which is your prerogative, then, very simply, you will have to pay a tariff.”
President Donald Trump,
virtually addressing the World Economic F
[2025-01-31] US braces for new Trump tariffs as deadline nears (merimbulanewsweekly.com.au)
US President Donald Trump says he will impose hefty new tariffs of 25 per cent on goods from Mexico and Canada and 10 per cent on imports from China, and nothing can be done by the three countries to forestall them.
Trump did, however, reference a potential carve out for oil from Canada, saying that rate would be 10 per cent versus the 25 per cent planned for other goods from the United States' northern neighbour. But he indicated wider tariffs on oil and natural gas would be coming in mid-Febru
[2025-01-22] Trump push to use tariffs to pay for tax cuts faces opposition in Congress (marketscreener.com)
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump is pushing a plan to explicitly use revenue from higher tariffs on imported goods to help pay for extending trillions of dollars in tax cuts, an unprecedented shift likely to face opposition from many of his fellow Republicans in Congress.
The U.S. collects less than $100 billion annually in trade penalties imposed on imported goods as a tool to protect and grow domestic industries. That money is rarely a topic in Washington's routine budget bat
[2025-01-21] Who Donald Trump Could Pardon in His First 100 Days (newsweek.com)
As speculation grows about possible pardons under the new administration, bettors on the online prediction platform Polymarket have shared their forecasts for who could receive clemency in President Donald Trump's first 100 days.
Newsweek has contacted the White House for comment on Polymarket's list of potential Trump pardonees.
Why It Matters
Polymarket, which gained prominence and credibility for correctly calling the results of the 2024 election, calculates odds based on how many "shares" us
[2024-12-13] Trump tariffs : A boost for domestic trucking demand (freightwaves.com)
Over the past few months, a number of folks in the media have compared tariffs to sales taxes. While tariffs are a form of taxation, they are fundamentally different from sales taxes.
Tariffs are imposed at the import stage based on the declared value of goods, which does not include subsequent costs like labor, marketing or retailer profit margins. Consequently, the effect of a tariff on the retail price is typically less than the tariff rate itself.
For example, a car might have a modest 5% ma
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.595 | tariffs | polymarket | 518888 | 86.8 | 2025-02-01 | 2025-04-29 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will Trump impose tariffs on Mexico before March?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or his administration (including the Department of Commerce) impose any new or increased tariffs on Mexico by February 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-02-28.
Current market price: 0.97
Price history: 7d ago: 0.71, 3d ago: 0.80, 1d ago: 0.94
Time until resolution: 27 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-02-01] Trump tariffs on Mexico , Canada and China will start Saturday , WH says (fox6now.com)
Trump tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China will start Saturday, WH says
President Donald Trump will move forward with plans to implement tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China starting Saturday, potentially driving up the price of everything from gasoline and automobiles to guacamole ahead of the Super Bowl.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed the news at a briefing Friday. She said Trump will impose a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports starting Feb. 1, and a
[2025-02-01] It Happening : Trump Administration Confirms Tariffs (thetruthaboutcars.com)
It's Happening: Trump Administration Confirms Tariffs
The Trump administration has confirmed that tariffs levied against goods built in Canada, China, and Mexico will begin tomorrow.
The tariffs will be 25 percent on goods from Canada and Mexico and 10 percent on goods from China.
We've already told you that there's a good chance it leads to new cars and auto parts costing more -- and at least one automaker has a plan in place.
Trump spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said the motivation behind the m
[2025-01-17] US Fed may pause rate cuts in January 2025 : Reuters poll (invezz.com)
Fed may pause rate cuts in January amid inflation concerns tied to Trump’s policies: Reuters poll
Mar 27, 2026, 16:02 PM
Central banks
Brazil central bank orders liquidation of Entrepay units over risks
Mar 27, 2026, 15:31 PM
Economic
Mexico swings to deficit as import surge outpaces export growth
Mar 27, 2026, 10:47 AM
Artificial intelligence
After Hormuz, is Taiwan the next economic shock no one is ready for?
Mar 27, 2026, 08:45 AM
Commodities
Another energy chokepoint? As Iran‑US war drags on
[2025-01-22] Trump push to use tariffs to pay for tax cuts faces opposition in Congress (marketscreener.com)
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump is pushing a plan to explicitly use revenue from higher tariffs on imported goods to help pay for extending trillions of dollars in tax cuts, an unprecedented shift likely to face opposition from many of his fellow Republicans in Congress.
The U.S. collects less than $100 billion annually in trade penalties imposed on imported goods as a tool to protect and grow domestic industries. That money is rarely a topic in Washington's routine budget bat
[2024-11-12] Mexican Peso sinks on tariff worries , traders eye Banxico decision (fxstreet.com)
Mexican Peso plunges for third straight day, US inflation data eyed
- Mexican Peso tumbles following Trump’s appointments of Mike Waltz and Marco Rubio.
- Banxico expected to cut rates by 25 bps amid heightened US-Mexico tensions.
- Upcoming US inflation and Retail Sales data to impact USD/MXN currency pair.
The Mexican Peso extends its losses against the Greenback on Tuesday on risk aversion due to US President-elect Donald Trump’s first appointments to his cabinet. Trump’s campaign proposals o
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 1 | 0.9705 | tariffs | polymarket | 519288 | 26.7 | 2025-02-01 | 2025-02-28 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will 250-300k federal employees accept the buyout?
Background: The Trump administration announced Tuesday that it is offering deferred resignations to all federal employees who opt to leave their jobs by February 6 (see: https://www.opm.gov/fork)
This market will resolve according to the number of employees that accept the deferred resignation offer.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the number is reported as a percentage of the Federal workforce, with no reporting of the actual number by February 28, 11:59 PM ET, this market will use the most exact unrounded percentage reported out of 3,010,000 to calculate the number of deferred resignations (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001).
If the Trump Administration does not publish the number or percentage of employees that accept the deferred resignation offer by February 28, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-02-28.
Current market price: 0.05
Price history: 1d ago: 0.05
Time until resolution: 27 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-01-29] Trump downplays bird flu epidemic , egg prices across the country soar (peoplesworld.org)
One of the first observable impacts of the new Trump administration is the administration’s attack on public information. Agency communications are gagged, federal workers are encouraged to snitch on each other regarding DEI rollbacks, investigations are sealed, and we are told that somehow, Pete Hegseth is qualified to run the Department of Defense. Yet, nowhere can this onslaught on public information be better seen than in the price of eggs.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which keeps track o
[2025-02-01] Stocks hit , Dollar bid as Trump sticks with Feb 1st tariffs - Newsquawk US Market Wrap (zerohedge.com)
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Debates
[2025-01-17] US Fed may pause rate cuts in January 2025 : Reuters poll (invezz.com)
Fed may pause rate cuts in January amid inflation concerns tied to Trump’s policies: Reuters poll
Mar 27, 2026, 16:02 PM
Central banks
Brazil central bank orders liquidation of Entrepay units over risks
Mar 27, 2026, 15:31 PM
Economic
Mexico swings to deficit as import surge outpaces export growth
Mar 27, 2026, 10:47 AM
Artificial intelligence
After Hormuz, is Taiwan the next economic shock no one is ready for?
Mar 27, 2026, 08:45 AM
Commodities
Another energy chokepoint? As Iran‑US war drags on
[2025-01-21] Who Donald Trump Could Pardon in His First 100 Days (newsweek.com)
As speculation grows about possible pardons under the new administration, bettors on the online prediction platform Polymarket have shared their forecasts for who could receive clemency in President Donald Trump's first 100 days.
Newsweek has contacted the White House for comment on Polymarket's list of potential Trump pardonees.
Why It Matters
Polymarket, which gained prominence and credibility for correctly calling the results of the 2024 election, calculates odds based on how many "shares" us
[2024-09-06] Is the August jobs report exactly what the Fed needed to hear ? (housingwire.com)
August’s gain of just 142,000 total nonfarm payroll jobs confirms that the job market is cooling, which all in all is good news for the Federal Reserve, which meets in a little under two weeks to discuss interest rates. But is it enough to justify a half-point cut?
Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released on Friday also showed that the June jobs report was revised downward to 118,000 jobs (from 179,000) and July down to 89,000 jobs (from 114,000).
The unemployment rate remained fai
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.049 | mna_corporate | polymarket | 520756 | 27.3 | 2025-02-01 | 2025-02-28 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: No change in ECB interest rates after March 2025 meeting?
Background: This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) March 2025 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is information from the ECB released after its meeting scheduled for March 5-6, 2025 according to their official calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official website of the ECB at https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by June 5, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-03-06.
Current market price: 0.07
Price history: 1d ago: 0.07
Time until resolution: 33 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-01-30] ECB lowers interest rates by 25 basis points - Xinhua (english.news.cn)
European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde speaks during a press conference at the ECB headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, Jan. 30, 2025. The ECB on Thursday decided to lower key interest rates by 25 basis points. (Xinhua/Zhang Fan)
FRANKFURT, Jan. 30 (Xinhua) -- The European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday decided to lower key interest rates by 25 basis points.
After the rate cuts, the interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending f
[2025-01-30] EUR / USD Analysis Today 30 / 01 : Will ECB Change Policy ( Chart ) (dailyforex.com)
- As widely expected, the US Federal Reserve kept US interest rates unchanged.
- This event did not significantly alter the performance of the EUR/USD currency pair, which remained stable within a range between the support level of 1.0383 and the resistance level of 1.0443, before settling around 1.0415 at the time of writing this analysis.
- This is ahead of the next important announcement for the currency pair, as the European Central Bank will announce today an update to its monetary policy.
[2025-01-10] Are monetary policy decisions in line with market expectations ? (independent.com.mt)
Chart 3: ECB DFR expectations vs actual monetary policy decisions
Source: ECB, ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts
Monetary policy expectations play a pivotal role in shaping market behaviour. These expectations are based on what investors and businesses anticipate central banks will do to guide the economy. One key factor that often mirrors these expectations are government bond yields, providing a snapshot of how markets view future interest rates and economic conditions.
This article focuses on t
[2025-01-17] US Fed may pause rate cuts in January 2025 : Reuters poll (invezz.com)
Fed may pause rate cuts in January amid inflation concerns tied to Trump’s policies: Reuters poll
Mar 27, 2026, 16:02 PM
Central banks
Brazil central bank orders liquidation of Entrepay units over risks
Mar 27, 2026, 15:31 PM
Economic
Mexico swings to deficit as import surge outpaces export growth
Mar 27, 2026, 10:47 AM
Artificial intelligence
After Hormuz, is Taiwan the next economic shock no one is ready for?
Mar 27, 2026, 08:45 AM
Commodities
Another energy chokepoint? As Iran‑US war drags on
[2024-04-11] ECB holds rates with anticipation of cuts rising (portfolio-adviser.com)
The European Central Bank (ECB) elected to hold rates in today’s meeting (11 April) while ECB president Christine Lagarde noted that inflation looks likely to hit its 2% target in 2025.
The ECB has held rates at their highest level in over two decades since September 2024, with main refinancing operations at 4.5%, marginal lending facility at 4.75%, and deposit facility at 4%.
The rate decision came after inflation decreased to 2.4% in March 2024 from 2.8% in February and 3.1% in January.
Des La
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.065 | fed_macro | polymarket | 521038 | 32.6 | 2025-02-01 | 2025-03-06 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: 50 or more bps decrease in ECB interest rates after March 2025 meeting?
Background: This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) March 2025 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is information from the ECB released after its meeting scheduled for March 5-6, 2025 according to their official calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official website of the ECB at https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by June 5, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-03-06.
Current market price: 0.06
Price history: 1d ago: 0.06
Time until resolution: 32 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-01-30] ECB lowers interest rates by 25 basis points - Xinhua (english.news.cn)
European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde speaks during a press conference at the ECB headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, Jan. 30, 2025. The ECB on Thursday decided to lower key interest rates by 25 basis points. (Xinhua/Zhang Fan)
FRANKFURT, Jan. 30 (Xinhua) -- The European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday decided to lower key interest rates by 25 basis points.
After the rate cuts, the interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending f
[2025-01-30] ECB cuts rates and leaves room for more easing (rte.ie)
The European Central Bank has cut interest rates and kept the door open to further policy easing as concerns over lacklustre economic growth supersede worries about persistent inflation.
It was the fifth ECB reduction since June and markets expect two or three more this year, driven by arguments that the biggest inflation surge in generations is nearly defeated and the flagging economy needs relief.
The decision means the ECB will cut its main rate from 3% to 2.75%.
It will immediately impact tr
[2025-01-10] Are monetary policy decisions in line with market expectations ? (independent.com.mt)
Chart 3: ECB DFR expectations vs actual monetary policy decisions
Source: ECB, ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts
Monetary policy expectations play a pivotal role in shaping market behaviour. These expectations are based on what investors and businesses anticipate central banks will do to guide the economy. One key factor that often mirrors these expectations are government bond yields, providing a snapshot of how markets view future interest rates and economic conditions.
This article focuses on t
[2025-01-17] US Fed may pause rate cuts in January 2025 : Reuters poll (invezz.com)
Fed may pause rate cuts in January amid inflation concerns tied to Trump’s policies: Reuters poll
Mar 27, 2026, 16:02 PM
Central banks
Brazil central bank orders liquidation of Entrepay units over risks
Mar 27, 2026, 15:31 PM
Economic
Mexico swings to deficit as import surge outpaces export growth
Mar 27, 2026, 10:47 AM
Artificial intelligence
After Hormuz, is Taiwan the next economic shock no one is ready for?
Mar 27, 2026, 08:45 AM
Commodities
Another energy chokepoint? As Iran‑US war drags on
[2024-10-18] ECB cuts rates by 25 basis points as inflation fades (china.org.cn)
This photo taken on July 27, 2023 shows the Euro sign in Frankfurt, Germany. [Photo/Xinhua]
The European Central Bank (ECB) decided on Thursday to lower three key interest rates by 25 basis points, its third rates cut this year, saying that disinflationary process is "well on track."
The interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility will be decreased to 3.25 percent, 3.4 percent and 3.65 percent respectively, with effect from Oct. 23.
T
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.056 | fed_macro | polymarket | 521040 | 32.5 | 2025-02-01 | 2025-03-06 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30?
Background: Trump's Treasury Secretary pick Scott Bessent has floated the idea of Trump naming a successor to Jerome Powell to serve as a "shadow chair", prior to the end of Powell's term, scheduled for May 2026 (see: https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/business/money-report/fed-chair-jerome-powell-can-serve-remainder-of-term-says-trumps-treasury-pick-bessent/3788991/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump does not announce his pick for Federal Reserve Chair by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will, resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information form Donald Trump or one of his official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-06-30.
Current market price: 0.85
Price history: 30d ago: 0.96, 14d ago: 0.78, 7d ago: 0.84, 3d ago: 0.85, 1d ago: 0.85
Time until resolution: 148 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-02-01] La resistencia de Jerome Powell | Diario Financiero (df.cl)
“No voy a responder ni hacer ningún comentario sobre lo que dijo el Presidente. No me corresponde hacerlo”. Tajante fue la respuesta del líder de la Reserva Federal, Jerome Powell, al ser consultado esta semana por las declaraciones de Donald Trump acerca de la institución monetaria.
El 23 de enero pasado, solo cuatros días después de su segundo arribo a la Casa Blanca, el Presidente de EEUU interpeló directamente a la Fed, en su intervención en el Foro Económico Mundial de Davos, señalando: “Ex
[2025-01-30] Kash Patel , Tulsi Gabbard and others face confirmation hearings today (fox9.com)
Kash Patel, Tulsi Gabbard and others conclude confirmation hearings today
Three of President Donald Trump’s cabinet picks finished their confirmation hearings on Thursday.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Tulsi Gabbard and Kash Patel were questioned by Democratic senators.
Thursday’s confirmation hearings highlights
Republican senator wants to know: Would Tulsi Gabbard give Russia a pass?
Republicans as well as Democrats criticized President Donald Trump’s pick for national intelligence director, condemni
[2025-01-17] 5 Takeaways From Bessent Confirmation Hearing for Treasury Secretary (theepochtimes.com)
Nominee for secretary of the Department of the Treasury Scott Bessent has vowed that when President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House, he will unleash “a new economic golden age.”
Bessent, a billionaire hedge fund manager, appeared before the Senate Finance Committee for his confirmation hearing in Washington on Jan. 16. Democrats asked questions about tax policy, tariffs, and other pressing economic issues.
[2025-01-21] President Trump appoints Mark Uyeda acting SEC chair (foxbusiness.com)
President Trump appoints Mark Uyeda acting SEC chair
Uyeda is poised to begin reversing some of Gensler's policies
According to a memo from the White House Monday afternoon, President Donald Trump has tapped GOP Commissioner Mark Uyeda to lead the Securities and Exchange Commission as acting chair.
The appointment follows Trump’s official swearing-in ceremony on Monday morning.
Uyeda, who is currently serving his second of a five-year term at the SEC, will serve as the interim head of Wall Stree
[2024-07-17] Trump says he mulls Jamie Dimon for US Treasury , wont try ousting Fed Powell (geo.tv)
July 17, 2024
WASHINGTON: Donald Trump will not try ousting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell before the central banker's term ends and would consider JPMorgan JPM.N CEO Jamie Dimon for treasury secretary if he won the November 5 election, the former president told Bloomberg in an interview published on Tuesday.
JPMorgan declined to comment on Trump's remarks. Powell's term as chair expires in 2026. Powell's seat on the Fed Board of Governors expires in 2028. The Trump interview was conducted
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 1 | 0.8515 | fed_macro | polymarket | 515461 | 147.6 | 2025-02-02 | 2025-06-30 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nvidia is the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2025, as of market close. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-12-31.
Current market price: 0.29
Price history: 30d ago: 0.34, 14d ago: 0.29, 7d ago: 0.38, 3d ago: 0.33, 1d ago: 0.29
Time until resolution: 332 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-02-01] Nvidia stock plunges , Bitcoin dips , Trump Media surges : Markets news (qz.com)
Nvidia stock plunges, Bitcoin dips, and Trump Media surges: Markets news roundup
Plus, the 5 best states in America for retirees — and the 5 worst
1 / 9
2025 will see the greatest surge of Americans turning 65, with an average of more than 11,000 people reaching the milestone every day.
For a large share of those Americans, retirement is on the mind. And where they choose to retire could have a big impact on their future happiness and peace of mind.
2 / 9
Nvidia $NVDA (NVDA) stock plunged 16% Mo
[2025-02-01] The blogger who helped spark Nvidia $600 billion stock collapse and a panic in Silicon Valley (biztoc.com)
Markets
S&P FUTURES
6,412
1.73%
•
S&P
6,369
1.67%
•
Dow
45,167
1.73%
•
Nasdaq
20,948
2.15%
•
Russel
2,450
1.75%
•
VIX
31.05
13.16%
•
10Y
4.44
0.54%
•
Wilshire
42,053
0.00%
•
FTSE
9,967
0.05%
•
EuroStoxx
5,506
1.08%
•
DAX
22,301
1.38%
•
Hang Seng
24,952
0.38%
•
Nikkei
53,373
0.43%
•
Oil
99.64
5.46%
•
Gold
4,524
2.62%
•
Bitcoin
66,825
0.69%
Fear & Greed 10/100
Why is CrowdStrike stock slipping?
Why are futures falling after Trump extended Iran strike pause?
Why is Jack Daniel's owner pursuing merg
[2025-01-08] Will the 2030 ban on new petrol and diesel cars happen ... and will I still be able to drive my petrol car ? (dailymail.co.uk)
Will the 2030 ban on new petrol and diesel cars happen... and will I still be able to drive my petrol car?
- The Department for Transport's confirmed 2030 will be reinstated - will it last?
The Government has - not for the first time in the last six months - confirmed that it will ban sales of new petrol and diesel cars from 2030.
The deadline, which aims to phase out 100 per cent fossil fuel cars and increase uptake of electric vehicles, officially reverses the previous government’s decision to
[2025-01-17] US Fed may pause rate cuts in January 2025 : Reuters poll (invezz.com)
Fed may pause rate cuts in January amid inflation concerns tied to Trump’s policies: Reuters poll
Mar 27, 2026, 16:02 PM
Central banks
Brazil central bank orders liquidation of Entrepay units over risks
Mar 27, 2026, 15:31 PM
Economic
Mexico swings to deficit as import surge outpaces export growth
Mar 27, 2026, 10:47 AM
Artificial intelligence
After Hormuz, is Taiwan the next economic shock no one is ready for?
Mar 27, 2026, 08:45 AM
Commodities
Another energy chokepoint? As Iran‑US war drags on
[2024-09-05] Nvidia | Nvidia crash : Not economic slowdown , semiconductor unwinding triggered by monopoly probe against Nvidia : ED Yardeni (economictimes.indiatimes.com)
Clearly that shake-off in the tech-heavy stocks is causing a ripple effect across the globe. Is it a knee-jerk reaction, will it settle in, and is it just another day in a very intact bull market?
ED Yardeni: It does seem like just another day. It is very reminiscent of what happened not very long ago. In early August, we had the carry trade unwind as you mentioned and now I call this a sort of the semiconductor unwind. On Tuesday, somebody must have leaked the information that the Department of
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 1 | 0.295 | ai_sector | polymarket | 516818 | 332 | 2025-02-02 | 2025-12-31 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will egg prices be greater than $5 for January?
Background: This market will resolve to the bracket within which the price for "Eggs, Grade A, Large (Cost per Dozen) in U.S. City Average" lies when the January data point is published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111).
The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for egg prices on the BLS's CPI release. The January release is presently scheduled for February 12, 2025. Resolution of this market will take place upon the update of the St. Louis Fed's chart.
The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-02-12.
Current market price: 0.49
Price history: 3d ago: 0.49, 1d ago: 0.49
Time until resolution: 10 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-01-29] Major U . S . Egg Producer Confirms Bird Flu at Indiana Farm (newstalk1280.com)
Second-Largest U.S. Egg Producer Confirms Bird Flu at Indiana Farm
Rose Acre Farms, the second-largest egg producer in the U.S., has just confirmed multiple bird flu-related deaths at its Indiana facility.
Bird flu has been on the rise in the U.S. in recent years, and Rose Acre Farms' facility in Seymour, Indiana, has now become a victim of the latest wave. According to the Indy Star, the farm was recently tested for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), more commonly known as bird flu. The
[2025-01-27] Editorial Roundup : United States (mynorthwest.com)
Editorial Roundup: United States
Jul 14, 2025, 12:51 PM
Excerpts from recent editorials in the United States and abroad:
___
July 11
The Washington Post says the costs of Trump’s tariffs have become more clear
To many Americans, President Donald Trump’s tariffs might seem costless. That’s because it takes time for them to ripple through the economy. This was the week that the tariff illusion began to evaporate, with new data suggesting that American businesses are starting to feel the pain.
Sure
[2025-01-17] Gold Analysis Today 16 / 01 : After The $2 , 700 High ( Chart ) (menafn.com)
403
Sorry!!
Error! We're sorry, but the page you were looking for doesn't exist.
Gold Analysis Today 16/01: After The $2,700 High (Chart)
(MENAFN- Daily Forex)
- As expected, spot gold prices have moved towards the psychological resistance level, reaching $2,702 per ounce today, the highest price in a month, and is currently stable around this level. Gold prices have gained because of the easing of US core inflation, which has renewed hopes for a less restrictive policy from the US Federal Reser
[2025-01-05] Weekly Market Outlook ( 06 - 10 January ) (forexlive.com)
UPCOMING EVENTS:
- Monday: China Caixin Services PMI, German CPI, Canada Services PMI.
- Tuesday: Switzerland CPI, French CPI, Eurozone CPI, US ISM Services PMI, US Job Openings.
- Wednesday: Australia Monthly CPI, Eurozone PPI, US ADP, FOMC Minutes.
- Thursday: Japan Average Cash Earnings, Eurozone Retail Sales, US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, US Jobless Claims.
- Friday: Switzerland Unemployment Rate, Canada Employment Report, US NFP, US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
Tuesda
[2024-03-31] How It Started ... How It Going : Price of eggs , chocolate remain higher than usual amid Easter festivities (foxbusiness.com)
Price of eggs, chocolate remain higher than usual amid Easter festivities
Emily Metz, president and CEO of the American Egg Board, told Fox Business '3 billion eggs' are estimated to be consumed this season
Inflation and other factors related to the U.S. economy continue to wreak havoc on Americans, and the price of Easter essentials, including eggs, chocolate and candy, remains at near-historic highs.
The average price for a dozen grade A eggs in cities throughout the United States sat at aroun
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.49 | fed_macro | polymarket | 520796 | 10.1 | 2025-02-02 | 2025-02-12 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: 25 bps decrease in ECB interest rates after March 2025 meeting?
Background: This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) March 2025 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is information from the ECB released after its meeting scheduled for March 5-6, 2025 according to their official calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official website of the ECB at https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by June 5, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-03-06.
Current market price: 0.88
Price history: 1d ago: 0.88
Time until resolution: 32 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-01-30] ECB lowers interest rates by 25 basis points - Xinhua (english.news.cn)
European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde speaks during a press conference at the ECB headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, Jan. 30, 2025. The ECB on Thursday decided to lower key interest rates by 25 basis points. (Xinhua/Zhang Fan)
FRANKFURT, Jan. 30 (Xinhua) -- The European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday decided to lower key interest rates by 25 basis points.
After the rate cuts, the interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending f
[2025-01-30] ECB cuts rates and leaves room for more easing (rte.ie)
The European Central Bank has cut interest rates and kept the door open to further policy easing as concerns over lacklustre economic growth supersede worries about persistent inflation.
It was the fifth ECB reduction since June and markets expect two or three more this year, driven by arguments that the biggest inflation surge in generations is nearly defeated and the flagging economy needs relief.
The decision means the ECB will cut its main rate from 3% to 2.75%.
It will immediately impact tr
[2025-01-17] US Fed may pause rate cuts in January 2025 : Reuters poll (invezz.com)
Fed may pause rate cuts in January amid inflation concerns tied to Trump’s policies: Reuters poll
Mar 27, 2026, 16:02 PM
Central banks
Brazil central bank orders liquidation of Entrepay units over risks
Mar 27, 2026, 15:31 PM
Economic
Mexico swings to deficit as import surge outpaces export growth
Mar 27, 2026, 10:47 AM
Artificial intelligence
After Hormuz, is Taiwan the next economic shock no one is ready for?
Mar 27, 2026, 08:45 AM
Commodities
Another energy chokepoint? As Iran‑US war drags on
[2025-01-10] Are monetary policy decisions in line with market expectations ? (independent.com.mt)
Chart 3: ECB DFR expectations vs actual monetary policy decisions
Source: ECB, ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts
Monetary policy expectations play a pivotal role in shaping market behaviour. These expectations are based on what investors and businesses anticipate central banks will do to guide the economy. One key factor that often mirrors these expectations are government bond yields, providing a snapshot of how markets view future interest rates and economic conditions.
This article focuses on t
[2024-10-18] ECB cuts rates by 25 basis points as inflation fades (china.org.cn)
This photo taken on July 27, 2023 shows the Euro sign in Frankfurt, Germany. [Photo/Xinhua]
The European Central Bank (ECB) decided on Thursday to lower three key interest rates by 25 basis points, its third rates cut this year, saying that disinflationary process is "well on track."
The interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility will be decreased to 3.25 percent, 3.4 percent and 3.65 percent respectively, with effect from Oct. 23.
T
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 1 | 0.88 | fed_macro | polymarket | 521039 | 31.8 | 2025-02-02 | 2025-03-06 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will Jerome Powell say "Good Afternoon" during the March meeting?
Background: Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on March 19, 2025, at 2:00 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.
Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.
Compound words will not count.
If no such statement happens by April, 12, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-03-19.
Current market price: 0.98
Price history: 1d ago: 0.96
Time until resolution: 44 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-02-01] La resistencia de Jerome Powell | Diario Financiero (df.cl)
“No voy a responder ni hacer ningún comentario sobre lo que dijo el Presidente. No me corresponde hacerlo”. Tajante fue la respuesta del líder de la Reserva Federal, Jerome Powell, al ser consultado esta semana por las declaraciones de Donald Trump acerca de la institución monetaria.
El 23 de enero pasado, solo cuatros días después de su segundo arribo a la Casa Blanca, el Presidente de EEUU interpeló directamente a la Fed, en su intervención en el Foro Económico Mundial de Davos, señalando: “Ex
[2025-01-30] Tractor Supply ( TSCO ) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript (fool.com)
Tractor Supply (TSCO 2.10%)
Q4 2024 Earnings Call
Jan 30, 2025, 10:00 a.m. ET
Contents:
- Prepared Remarks
- Questions and Answers
- Call Participants
Prepared Remarks:
Operator
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Tractor Supply Company's conference call to discuss fourth-quarter and fiscal-year 2024 results. [Operator instructions] Please be advised that reproduction of this call, in whole or in part, is not permitted without written authorization of Tractor Supply Company. And a
[2025-01-14] AP News in Brief at 12 : 04 a . m . EST – Winnipeg Free Press (winnipegfreepress.com)
AP News in Brief at 11:04 p.m. EST
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[2025-01-22] Anything Else Happen on Monday ? ABC GMA Goes All - in Over January 6 Pardons (newsbusters.org)
With CBS Mornings freaking out about a number of matters related to Monday’s second inauguration of President Trump, the fervently anti-Trump partisans at ABC’s Good Morning America were apoplectic over the pardons of January 6 defendants to the point everything else was painted as either fringe or blurry.
“We are going to begin with President Trump’s first day in office. Unprecedented scope of actions. The President signed a number of executive actions ranging from pardoning the January 6 riote
[2024-03-11] Market outlook for this week ( March 11 to March 15 ) (indiainfoline.com)
WHY THE POWELL TESTIMONY WAS SIGNIFICANT THIS WEEK
Jerome Powell testified this week in front of the Senate Banking Committee of the US House of Representatives (Congress). This testimony assumes significance as it is made under oath and is an important part of the Fed communication. There were 5 important things Jerome Powell testified in front of the Congress; having significance for the global financial markets.
- Powell testified that the Fed had maintained status quo on rates since July 202
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 1 | 0.9795 | fed_macro | polymarket | 521318 | 44.5 | 2025-02-02 | 2025-03-19 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will Trump impose tariffs on France in the first 100 days?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or his administration (including the Department of Commerce) impose any new or increased tariffs on the listed country by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-04-29.
Current market price: 0.10
Price history: 3d ago: 0.34, 1d ago: 0.23
Time until resolution: 85 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-01-31] US braces for new Trump tariffs as deadline nears (merimbulanewsweekly.com.au)
US President Donald Trump says he will impose hefty new tariffs of 25 per cent on goods from Mexico and Canada and 10 per cent on imports from China, and nothing can be done by the three countries to forestall them.
Trump did, however, reference a potential carve out for oil from Canada, saying that rate would be 10 per cent versus the 25 per cent planned for other goods from the United States' northern neighbour. But he indicated wider tariffs on oil and natural gas would be coming in mid-Febru
[2025-02-01] Trump says he will place tariffs on Canada , Mexico and China on Saturday (maldonandburnhamstandard.co.uk)
US President Donald Trump has said he will place 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10% tariffs on goods from China effective on Saturday.
The move raises the spectre of swift price increases for US consumers as Mr Trump suggested he would try to blunt the impact on oil imports.
Mr Trump had been threatening the tariffs to ensure greater co-operation from the countries on stopping illegal immigration and the smuggling of chemicals used for fentanyl, but he has also pledged to use
[2025-01-27] President Trump Issues America First Trade Policy And Previews Additional Tariffs On Canada , Mexico , And China (mondaq.com)
- with readers working within the Insurance industries
This alert was originally published on January 21, 2025, and updated on January 22, 2025, to reflect President Trump's comments that additional 10% tariffs may be imposed on China on February 1.
On January 20, 2025, President Trump issued a broad-based memorandum to federal agency heads directing agencies to implement an "America First" trade policy. The memorandum references the policies of the President's first term and, in continuation of
[2025-01-22] Trump push to use tariffs to pay for tax cuts faces opposition in Congress (marketscreener.com)
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump is pushing a plan to explicitly use revenue from higher tariffs on imported goods to help pay for extending trillions of dollars in tax cuts, an unprecedented shift likely to face opposition from many of his fellow Republicans in Congress.
The U.S. collects less than $100 billion annually in trade penalties imposed on imported goods as a tool to protect and grow domestic industries. That money is rarely a topic in Washington's routine budget bat
[2024-11-29] Big EU economies must reform as Donald Trump tariffs loom | Kenneth Rogoff (theguardian.com)
As Europe prepares for a potential trade war after the US president-elect, Donald Trump, takes office in January, its two largest economies are struggling. While Germany is heading into its second consecutive year of zero growth, France is expected to grow by less than 1% in 2025.
Is Europe’s economic stagnation the result of insufficient Keynesian stimulus, or are its bloated and sclerotic welfare states to blame? Either way, it is clear that those who believe simple measures such as higher bud
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.105 | tariffs | polymarket | 520680 | 84.9 | 2025-02-03 | 2025-04-29 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will Trump say 'AI' or 'artificial intelligence' during the 2025 State of the Union?
Background: Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver the 2025 State of the Union address on March 4, 2025, 9:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the 2025 State of the Union address. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.
Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.
Compound words will not count.
If the 2025 State of the Union does not happen by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If Trump ceases to be President of the United States for any length of time by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the press briefing.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-03-04.
Current market price: 0.74
Price history: 1d ago: 0.80
Time until resolution: 28 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-02-01] It Happening : Trump Administration Confirms Tariffs (thetruthaboutcars.com)
It's Happening: Trump Administration Confirms Tariffs
The Trump administration has confirmed that tariffs levied against goods built in Canada, China, and Mexico will begin tomorrow.
The tariffs will be 25 percent on goods from Canada and Mexico and 10 percent on goods from China.
We've already told you that there's a good chance it leads to new cars and auto parts costing more -- and at least one automaker has a plan in place.
Trump spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said the motivation behind the m
[2025-01-29] Is Trump Positioning for a No - Deal With Russia – or Not ? (lewrockwell.com)
Is Trump Positioning for a “No-Deal” With Russia – or Not?
January 29, 2025
The idea of inflicting “strategic defeats” on Russia has been a cornerstone of U.S. policy for so long a time that it transcends party lines
Trump’s rhetoric about Russia having lost 1 million men in the Ukraine conflict is not just nonsense (the real number not even reaching 100,000), but his resort to it underlines that the usual meme of Trump being just woefully misinformed is looking less and less plausible.
After to
[2025-01-13] IMRA - Monday , January 13 , 2025 Will Netanyahu Put Israel On Trump Doormat List ? (imra.org.il)
Will Netanyahu Put Israel On Trump's Doormat List? Dr. Aaron Lerner 13 January 2025
Days away from President-elect Trump's inauguration, it appears that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu may set the catastrophic precedent of succumbing to pressure to accept an unacceptable "deal" with Hamas.
If you only care about the next five minutes - or even seven days - then being spineless today to please Mr. Trump makes sense.
But for someone concerned about Israel's future over the next four years and be
[2025-01-27] President Trump Issues America First Trade Policy And Previews Additional Tariffs On Canada , Mexico , And China (mondaq.com)
- with readers working within the Insurance industries
This alert was originally published on January 21, 2025, and updated on January 22, 2025, to reflect President Trump's comments that additional 10% tariffs may be imposed on China on February 1.
On January 20, 2025, President Trump issued a broad-based memorandum to federal agency heads directing agencies to implement an "America First" trade policy. The memorandum references the policies of the President's first term and, in continuation of
[2024-10-14] Trump protests aside , his agenda has plenty of overlap with Project 2025 (morningsun.net)
ATLANTA (AP) — Donald Trump insists that Project 2025, a nearly 1,000-page blueprint for a hard-right turn in American government and society, does not reflect his priorities for a White House encore.
“I haven’t read it. I don’t want to read it — purposefully,” the Republican presidential nominee said Sept. 10 on the debate stage.
Yet from economics, immigration and education policy to civil rights and foreign affairs, there are common ideas and shared ideology between Project 2025 and Trump's o
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.745 | ai_sector | polymarket | 521308 | 28.5 | 2025-02-03 | 2025-03-04 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will Trump impose a blanket tariff of 20-30% on the EU by June 30?
Background: This market will resolve according to the size of the first general tariff enacted by the Trump administration on imports into the United States from the European Union (EU).
If the Trump administration does not impose a general tariff on the EU by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general tariff on imports into the United States from the European Unions is enacted.
Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect.
Only tariffs specifically targeting the EU will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) or a tariff on specific EU member states will not count toward this market's resolution.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-06-30.
Current market price: 0.14
Price history: 1d ago: 0.40
Time until resolution: 147 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-01-31] US braces for new Trump tariffs as deadline nears (merimbulanewsweekly.com.au)
US President Donald Trump says he will impose hefty new tariffs of 25 per cent on goods from Mexico and Canada and 10 per cent on imports from China, and nothing can be done by the three countries to forestall them.
Trump did, however, reference a potential carve out for oil from Canada, saying that rate would be 10 per cent versus the 25 per cent planned for other goods from the United States' northern neighbour. But he indicated wider tariffs on oil and natural gas would be coming in mid-Febru
[2025-01-31] World braces for market Spillover as Trump tariffs near (windsorstar.com)
World braces for market spillover as Trump tariffs near
'There’s a general feeling of uncertainty that goes beyond the tariff issue: Trump is completely unpredictable'
United States President Donald Trump is planning to slap tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico on Saturday. Now comes the guessing game of how they will affect the global stock market.
Distilling the nuance from the noise of any announcement from Trump will be a challenge for investors, given the options at his disposal. For exa
[2025-01-27] President Trump Issues America First Trade Policy And Previews Additional Tariffs On Canada , Mexico , And China (mondaq.com)
- with readers working within the Insurance industries
This alert was originally published on January 21, 2025, and updated on January 22, 2025, to reflect President Trump's comments that additional 10% tariffs may be imposed on China on February 1.
On January 20, 2025, President Trump issued a broad-based memorandum to federal agency heads directing agencies to implement an "America First" trade policy. The memorandum references the policies of the President's first term and, in continuation of
[2025-01-22] Trump push to use tariffs to pay for tax cuts faces opposition in Congress (marketscreener.com)
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump is pushing a plan to explicitly use revenue from higher tariffs on imported goods to help pay for extending trillions of dollars in tax cuts, an unprecedented shift likely to face opposition from many of his fellow Republicans in Congress.
The U.S. collects less than $100 billion annually in trade penalties imposed on imported goods as a tool to protect and grow domestic industries. That money is rarely a topic in Washington's routine budget bat
[2024-11-29] Big EU economies must reform as Donald Trump tariffs loom | Kenneth Rogoff (theguardian.com)
As Europe prepares for a potential trade war after the US president-elect, Donald Trump, takes office in January, its two largest economies are struggling. While Germany is heading into its second consecutive year of zero growth, France is expected to grow by less than 1% in 2025.
Is Europe’s economic stagnation the result of insufficient Keynesian stimulus, or are its bloated and sclerotic welfare states to blame? Either way, it is clear that those who believe simple measures such as higher bud
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 1 | 0.135 | tariffs | polymarket | 521471 | 147.1 | 2025-02-03 | 2025-06-30 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will Trump deport less than 250,000?
Background: During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes less than 250,000 non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-12-31.
Current market price: 0.05
Price history: 14d ago: 0.10, 7d ago: 0.06, 3d ago: 0.05, 1d ago: 0.05
Time until resolution: 330 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-01-29] ICE raids in California : How to sort fact from rumor online (laist.com)
You value independent local news, so become a sustainer today to power our newsroom.
ICE raids in California: How to sort fact from rumor online
Even before President Donald Trump took office for a second time, panic about his promised “mass deportations” — and raids by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) — was already spreading throughout California.
For example, in an early January operation unrelated to ICE, the Santa Clara County Sheriff’s Office served two search warrants related
[2025-01-31] US braces for new Trump tariffs as deadline nears (merimbulanewsweekly.com.au)
US President Donald Trump says he will impose hefty new tariffs of 25 per cent on goods from Mexico and Canada and 10 per cent on imports from China, and nothing can be done by the three countries to forestall them.
Trump did, however, reference a potential carve out for oil from Canada, saying that rate would be 10 per cent versus the 25 per cent planned for other goods from the United States' northern neighbour. But he indicated wider tariffs on oil and natural gas would be coming in mid-Febru
[2025-01-27] President Trump Issues America First Trade Policy And Previews Additional Tariffs On Canada , Mexico , And China (mondaq.com)
- with readers working within the Insurance industries
This alert was originally published on January 21, 2025, and updated on January 22, 2025, to reflect President Trump's comments that additional 10% tariffs may be imposed on China on February 1.
On January 20, 2025, President Trump issued a broad-based memorandum to federal agency heads directing agencies to implement an "America First" trade policy. The memorandum references the policies of the President's first term and, in continuation of
[2025-01-26] Trump Wants Egypt and Jordan to Take in Palestinians From Gaza . Here Why They are Likely to Refuse (military.com)
Top Military News Twin Cities Move To Ban Masked ICE Agents After Controversial Raid El Paso Airspace Closure, Federal Government Messaging Shows 'Breakdown' Federal Agents Defend ICE, CBP Tactics on Capitol Hill Transitioning From Military to Civilian Life: An Air Force Veteran’s Story National Guard Soldier Left M4 Carbine in French Quarter Bathroom During Mardi Gras Patrol More Military Headlines US Will Send Troops to Nigeria to Train the Military to Fight Extremism Mold-Induced Housing Heal
[2024-11-18] So How Will Trump Deport 20 Million ? - American Renaissance (amren.com)
So How Will Trump Deport 20 Million?
Caroline Graham, Daily Mail, November 16, 2024
When Donald Trump is inaugurated as America’s 47th president on January 20, the event will mark the official start of his second term in office with carefully stage-managed images that will be seen around the world.
Within hours of the event, Trump will take his seat behind the Resolute desk in the Oval Office and launch what he calls ‘the biggest mass deportation in American history’.
While the expulsion of ille
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.0515 | tariffs | polymarket | 517310 | 330.4 | 2025-02-04 | 2025-12-31 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people?
Background: During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes between 1,750,000 (inclusive) and 2,000,000 (exclusive) non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-12-31.
Current market price: 0.04
Price history: 14d ago: 0.02, 7d ago: 0.02, 3d ago: 0.04, 1d ago: 0.04
Time until resolution: 330 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-01-29] ICE raids in California : How to sort fact from rumor online (laist.com)
You value independent local news, so become a sustainer today to power our newsroom.
ICE raids in California: How to sort fact from rumor online
Even before President Donald Trump took office for a second time, panic about his promised “mass deportations” — and raids by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) — was already spreading throughout California.
For example, in an early January operation unrelated to ICE, the Santa Clara County Sheriff’s Office served two search warrants related
[2025-01-30] # OpEd : Preparing For Trump Deportation Copycats In Europe , By Azu Ishiekwene (saharareporters.com)
I can understand if many people outside the US wish to forget about President Donald Trump and get on with their lives. However hard you try, you can’t keep up with the chaos in the White House since January 20.
It would be a defamation of the animal kingdom to call Trump a bull in a China shop. He is worse. Regrettably, Trump is inspiring copycats around the world, and it won’t be long before they start following his example, especially his anti-immigration hysteria.
Trump didn’t create the mig
[2025-01-27] President Trump Issues America First Trade Policy And Previews Additional Tariffs On Canada , Mexico , And China (mondaq.com)
- with readers working within the Insurance industries
This alert was originally published on January 21, 2025, and updated on January 22, 2025, to reflect President Trump's comments that additional 10% tariffs may be imposed on China on February 1.
On January 20, 2025, President Trump issued a broad-based memorandum to federal agency heads directing agencies to implement an "America First" trade policy. The memorandum references the policies of the President's first term and, in continuation of
[2025-01-26] Trump Wants Egypt and Jordan to Take in Palestinians From Gaza . Here Why They are Likely to Refuse (military.com)
Top Military News Twin Cities Move To Ban Masked ICE Agents After Controversial Raid El Paso Airspace Closure, Federal Government Messaging Shows 'Breakdown' Federal Agents Defend ICE, CBP Tactics on Capitol Hill Transitioning From Military to Civilian Life: An Air Force Veteran’s Story National Guard Soldier Left M4 Carbine in French Quarter Bathroom During Mardi Gras Patrol More Military Headlines US Will Send Troops to Nigeria to Train the Military to Fight Extremism Mold-Induced Housing Heal
[2024-11-18] So How Will Trump Deport 20 Million ? - American Renaissance (amren.com)
So How Will Trump Deport 20 Million?
Caroline Graham, Daily Mail, November 16, 2024
When Donald Trump is inaugurated as America’s 47th president on January 20, the event will mark the official start of his second term in office with carefully stage-managed images that will be seen around the world.
Within hours of the event, Trump will take his seat behind the Resolute desk in the Oval Office and launch what he calls ‘the biggest mass deportation in American history’.
While the expulsion of ille
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.0385 | tariffs | polymarket | 517318 | 330.3 | 2025-02-04 | 2025-12-31 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will Trump impose tariffs on Taiwan before March?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or his administration (including the Department of Commerce) impose any new or increased tariffs on the Republic of China (Taiwan) by February 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-02-28.
Current market price: 0.10
Price history: 3d ago: 0.09, 1d ago: 0.09
Time until resolution: 24 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-02-01] Consumers brace for impact of China tariffs (newzealandstar.com)
Voice of America
01 Feb 2025, 05:05 GMT+10
washington - White House press secretary Karoline Levitt announced Friday that President Donald Trump would be implementing 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods and a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports on Saturday.
Consumers told VOA they were bracing for the possible impact of increased costs.
"I'm concerned about rising prices," Yon Bui, a student of music and computer science at Middlebury College in Vermont, said in an interview Thursday.
FILE -
[2025-02-01] Trump says he will place tariffs on Canada , Mexico and China on Saturday (maldonandburnhamstandard.co.uk)
US President Donald Trump has said he will place 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10% tariffs on goods from China effective on Saturday.
The move raises the spectre of swift price increases for US consumers as Mr Trump suggested he would try to blunt the impact on oil imports.
Mr Trump had been threatening the tariffs to ensure greater co-operation from the countries on stopping illegal immigration and the smuggling of chemicals used for fentanyl, but he has also pledged to use
[2025-01-27] President Trump Issues America First Trade Policy And Previews Additional Tariffs On Canada , Mexico , And China (mondaq.com)
- with readers working within the Insurance industries
This alert was originally published on January 21, 2025, and updated on January 22, 2025, to reflect President Trump's comments that additional 10% tariffs may be imposed on China on February 1.
On January 20, 2025, President Trump issued a broad-based memorandum to federal agency heads directing agencies to implement an "America First" trade policy. The memorandum references the policies of the President's first term and, in continuation of
[2025-01-22] Trump push to use tariffs to pay for tax cuts faces opposition in Congress (marketscreener.com)
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump is pushing a plan to explicitly use revenue from higher tariffs on imported goods to help pay for extending trillions of dollars in tax cuts, an unprecedented shift likely to face opposition from many of his fellow Republicans in Congress.
The U.S. collects less than $100 billion annually in trade penalties imposed on imported goods as a tool to protect and grow domestic industries. That money is rarely a topic in Washington's routine budget bat
[2024-09-01] Ryan Hass On Taiwan : An affirmative US - Taiwan vision (taipeitimes.com)
There will be a new presidential administration in the United States in January 2025. It will be important for the Lai (賴清德) administration and America’s next administration to get on the same page quickly and visibly in respective efforts to bolster Taiwan’s security, economic vitality, and dignity and respect on the world stage. One key measure for doing so will be whether Washington and Taipei can coalesce around a common narrative for moving US-Taiwan relations forward.
In recent years, Wash
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.095 | tariffs | polymarket | 520674 | 24 | 2025-02-04 | 2025-02-28 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will Trump impose tariffs on Taiwan in the first 100 days?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or his administration (including the Department of Commerce) impose any new or increased tariffs on the listed country by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-04-29.
Current market price: 0.38
Price history: 3d ago: 0.53, 1d ago: 0.39
Time until resolution: 84 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-02-01] Consumers brace for impact of China tariffs (newzealandstar.com)
Voice of America
01 Feb 2025, 05:05 GMT+10
washington - White House press secretary Karoline Levitt announced Friday that President Donald Trump would be implementing 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods and a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports on Saturday.
Consumers told VOA they were bracing for the possible impact of increased costs.
"I'm concerned about rising prices," Yon Bui, a student of music and computer science at Middlebury College in Vermont, said in an interview Thursday.
FILE -
[2025-02-01] Trump says he will place tariffs on Canada , Mexico and China on Saturday (maldonandburnhamstandard.co.uk)
US President Donald Trump has said he will place 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10% tariffs on goods from China effective on Saturday.
The move raises the spectre of swift price increases for US consumers as Mr Trump suggested he would try to blunt the impact on oil imports.
Mr Trump had been threatening the tariffs to ensure greater co-operation from the countries on stopping illegal immigration and the smuggling of chemicals used for fentanyl, but he has also pledged to use
[2025-01-27] President Trump Issues America First Trade Policy And Previews Additional Tariffs On Canada , Mexico , And China (mondaq.com)
- with readers working within the Insurance industries
This alert was originally published on January 21, 2025, and updated on January 22, 2025, to reflect President Trump's comments that additional 10% tariffs may be imposed on China on February 1.
On January 20, 2025, President Trump issued a broad-based memorandum to federal agency heads directing agencies to implement an "America First" trade policy. The memorandum references the policies of the President's first term and, in continuation of
[2025-01-27] Editorial Roundup : United States (mynorthwest.com)
Editorial Roundup: United States
Jul 14, 2025, 12:51 PM
Excerpts from recent editorials in the United States and abroad:
___
July 11
The Washington Post says the costs of Trump’s tariffs have become more clear
To many Americans, President Donald Trump’s tariffs might seem costless. That’s because it takes time for them to ripple through the economy. This was the week that the tariff illusion began to evaporate, with new data suggesting that American businesses are starting to feel the pain.
Sure
[2024-09-01] Ryan Hass On Taiwan : An affirmative US - Taiwan vision (taipeitimes.com)
There will be a new presidential administration in the United States in January 2025. It will be important for the Lai (賴清德) administration and America’s next administration to get on the same page quickly and visibly in respective efforts to bolster Taiwan’s security, economic vitality, and dignity and respect on the world stage. One key measure for doing so will be whether Washington and Taipei can coalesce around a common narrative for moving US-Taiwan relations forward.
In recent years, Wash
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 1 | 0.375 | tariffs | polymarket | 520679 | 84.2 | 2025-02-04 | 2025-04-29 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will 150-200k federal employees accept the buyout?
Background: The Trump administration announced Tuesday that it is offering deferred resignations to all federal employees who opt to leave their jobs by February 6 (see: https://www.opm.gov/fork)
This market will resolve according to the number of employees that accept the deferred resignation offer.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the number is reported as a percentage of the Federal workforce, with no reporting of the actual number by February 28, 11:59 PM ET, this market will use the most exact unrounded percentage reported out of 3,010,000 to calculate the number of deferred resignations (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001).
If the Trump Administration does not publish the number or percentage of employees that accept the deferred resignation offer by February 28, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-02-28.
Current market price: 0.06
Price history: 3d ago: 0.11, 1d ago: 0.05
Time until resolution: 24 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-01-29] Trump downplays bird flu epidemic , egg prices across the country soar (peoplesworld.org)
One of the first observable impacts of the new Trump administration is the administration’s attack on public information. Agency communications are gagged, federal workers are encouraged to snitch on each other regarding DEI rollbacks, investigations are sealed, and we are told that somehow, Pete Hegseth is qualified to run the Department of Defense. Yet, nowhere can this onslaught on public information be better seen than in the price of eggs.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which keeps track o
[2025-02-03] An Overview of President Trump Trade Policy to Date | Holland & Knight LLP (jdsupra.com)
President Donald Trump issued a presidential memorandum titled "America First Trade Policy" on Jan. 20, 2025, outlining the immediate trade priorities for his administration. The memorandum directs various federal agencies and the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) to evaluate key aspects of U.S. trade policy and issue reports to the president no later than April 30, 2025 (and, in some cases, on April 1).
These reports could serve as justification for trade measures, includi
[2025-01-17] US Fed may pause rate cuts in January 2025 : Reuters poll (invezz.com)
Fed may pause rate cuts in January amid inflation concerns tied to Trump’s policies: Reuters poll
Mar 27, 2026, 16:02 PM
Central banks
Brazil central bank orders liquidation of Entrepay units over risks
Mar 27, 2026, 15:31 PM
Economic
Mexico swings to deficit as import surge outpaces export growth
Mar 27, 2026, 10:47 AM
Artificial intelligence
After Hormuz, is Taiwan the next economic shock no one is ready for?
Mar 27, 2026, 08:45 AM
Commodities
Another energy chokepoint? As Iran‑US war drags on
[2025-01-21] Who Donald Trump Could Pardon in His First 100 Days (newsweek.com)
As speculation grows about possible pardons under the new administration, bettors on the online prediction platform Polymarket have shared their forecasts for who could receive clemency in President Donald Trump's first 100 days.
Newsweek has contacted the White House for comment on Polymarket's list of potential Trump pardonees.
Why It Matters
Polymarket, which gained prominence and credibility for correctly calling the results of the 2024 election, calculates odds based on how many "shares" us
[2024-09-06] Is the August jobs report exactly what the Fed needed to hear ? (housingwire.com)
August’s gain of just 142,000 total nonfarm payroll jobs confirms that the job market is cooling, which all in all is good news for the Federal Reserve, which meets in a little under two weeks to discuss interest rates. But is it enough to justify a half-point cut?
Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released on Friday also showed that the June jobs report was revised downward to 118,000 jobs (from 179,000) and July down to 89,000 jobs (from 114,000).
The unemployment rate remained fai
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.06 | mna_corporate | polymarket | 520754 | 24.1 | 2025-02-04 | 2025-02-28 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will Trump say 'tariff' 5+ times times during the 2025 State of the Union?
Background: Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver the 2025 State of the Union address on March 4, 2025, 9:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the 2025 State of the Union address. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.
Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.
Compound words will not count.
If the 2025 State of the Union does not happen by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If Trump ceases to be President of the United States for any length of time by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the press briefing.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-03-04.
Current market price: 0.61
Price history: 3d ago: 0.69, 1d ago: 0.61
Time until resolution: 28 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-01-31] US braces for new Trump tariffs as deadline nears (merimbulanewsweekly.com.au)
US President Donald Trump says he will impose hefty new tariffs of 25 per cent on goods from Mexico and Canada and 10 per cent on imports from China, and nothing can be done by the three countries to forestall them.
Trump did, however, reference a potential carve out for oil from Canada, saying that rate would be 10 per cent versus the 25 per cent planned for other goods from the United States' northern neighbour. But he indicated wider tariffs on oil and natural gas would be coming in mid-Febru
[2025-01-31] World braces for market Spillover as Trump tariffs near (windsorstar.com)
World braces for market spillover as Trump tariffs near
'There’s a general feeling of uncertainty that goes beyond the tariff issue: Trump is completely unpredictable'
United States President Donald Trump is planning to slap tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico on Saturday. Now comes the guessing game of how they will affect the global stock market.
Distilling the nuance from the noise of any announcement from Trump will be a challenge for investors, given the options at his disposal. For exa
[2025-01-27] President Trump Issues America First Trade Policy And Previews Additional Tariffs On Canada , Mexico , And China (mondaq.com)
- with readers working within the Insurance industries
This alert was originally published on January 21, 2025, and updated on January 22, 2025, to reflect President Trump's comments that additional 10% tariffs may be imposed on China on February 1.
On January 20, 2025, President Trump issued a broad-based memorandum to federal agency heads directing agencies to implement an "America First" trade policy. The memorandum references the policies of the President's first term and, in continuation of
[2025-01-27] Editorial Roundup : United States (mynorthwest.com)
Editorial Roundup: United States
Jul 14, 2025, 12:51 PM
Excerpts from recent editorials in the United States and abroad:
___
July 11
The Washington Post says the costs of Trump’s tariffs have become more clear
To many Americans, President Donald Trump’s tariffs might seem costless. That’s because it takes time for them to ripple through the economy. This was the week that the tariff illusion began to evaporate, with new data suggesting that American businesses are starting to feel the pain.
Sure
[2024-12-30] Where to invest in 2025 : Will Trump start a trade war and what next for the Magnificent Seven ? (dailymail.co.uk)
Where to invest in 2025: Will Trump start a trade war and what next for the Magnificent Seven?
Donald Trump's agenda of aggressive trade tariffs and tax cuts is set to dominate markets next year.
The returning US president is expected to be an even more disruptive force in his second term, with repercussions for geopolitics in the Middle East and Ukraine.
His policy plans have prompted a stock rally, but also sparked inflation fears and are already influencing the easing cycle of US interest rat
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 1 | 0.61 | tariffs | polymarket | 521302 | 28.4 | 2025-02-04 | 2025-03-04 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will Trump remove tariff on China before March?
Background: On February 1, Donald Trump imposed a 10% tariff on imports from China (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action which removes the 10% general tariff on China by February 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which remove the general 10% tariff will qualify even if there are item specific exceptions for which the tariff still applies. However, lowering the general tariff below 10% without removing it will not qualify.
Any action which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the removal goes into effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-02-28.
Current market price: 0.09
Price history: 1d ago: 0.09
Time until resolution: 24 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-02-01] Consumers brace for impact of China tariffs (newzealandstar.com)
Voice of America
01 Feb 2025, 05:05 GMT+10
washington - White House press secretary Karoline Levitt announced Friday that President Donald Trump would be implementing 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods and a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports on Saturday.
Consumers told VOA they were bracing for the possible impact of increased costs.
"I'm concerned about rising prices," Yon Bui, a student of music and computer science at Middlebury College in Vermont, said in an interview Thursday.
FILE -
[2025-01-31] US braces for new Trump tariffs as deadline nears (merimbulanewsweekly.com.au)
US President Donald Trump says he will impose hefty new tariffs of 25 per cent on goods from Mexico and Canada and 10 per cent on imports from China, and nothing can be done by the three countries to forestall them.
Trump did, however, reference a potential carve out for oil from Canada, saying that rate would be 10 per cent versus the 25 per cent planned for other goods from the United States' northern neighbour. But he indicated wider tariffs on oil and natural gas would be coming in mid-Febru
[2025-01-27] President Trump Issues America First Trade Policy And Previews Additional Tariffs On Canada , Mexico , And China (mondaq.com)
- with readers working within the Insurance industries
This alert was originally published on January 21, 2025, and updated on January 22, 2025, to reflect President Trump's comments that additional 10% tariffs may be imposed on China on February 1.
On January 20, 2025, President Trump issued a broad-based memorandum to federal agency heads directing agencies to implement an "America First" trade policy. The memorandum references the policies of the President's first term and, in continuation of
[2025-01-22] Trump push to use tariffs to pay for tax cuts faces opposition in Congress (marketscreener.com)
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump is pushing a plan to explicitly use revenue from higher tariffs on imported goods to help pay for extending trillions of dollars in tax cuts, an unprecedented shift likely to face opposition from many of his fellow Republicans in Congress.
The U.S. collects less than $100 billion annually in trade penalties imposed on imported goods as a tool to protect and grow domestic industries. That money is rarely a topic in Washington's routine budget bat
[2024-12-18] The power of real reality (record-bee.com)
Donald Trump has vowed to impose 25% tariffs on imported goods from Mexico and Canada unless, he says, those neighbors stem the flow of illegal migrants and drugs into the United States. Chinese imports, he adds, will be taxed an extra 10% unless Beijing cracks down on the production of the narcotic fentanyl.
Perhaps Trump is bluffing; it’s always hard to separate his bluster from his true intentions. But if he carries out his threats, the big losers will be American consumers — including a grea
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.0855 | tariffs | polymarket | 521458 | 24.2 | 2025-02-04 | 2025-02-28 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will egg prices be between $5.00 and $5.25 in February?
Background: This market will resolve to the bracket within which the price for "Eggs, Grade A, Large (Cost per Dozen) in U.S. City Average" lies when the February data point is published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111).
The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for egg prices on the BLS's CPI release. The February release is presently scheduled for March 12, 2025. Resolution of this market will take place upon the update of the St. Louis Fed's chart.
The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-03-12.
Current market price: 0.15
Price history: 1d ago: 0.15
Time until resolution: 36 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-02-04] Egg Prices In 2025 | Armstrong Economics (armstrongeconomics.com)
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt responded to an inquiry on rising egg prices by blaming the prior administration. Leavitt was correct when she stated that the Department of Agriculture was directed to kill over 100 million chickens, leading to a mass shortage. Prices steadily rose throughout Biden’s term, as an average dozen cost only $1.60 in February 2021.
Egg prices increased by 20% to $1.93 during Biden’s first year in office. We saw the avian flu outbreak in 2022, which along w
[2025-01-29] Major U . S . Egg Producer Confirms Bird Flu at Indiana Farm (newstalk1280.com)
Second-Largest U.S. Egg Producer Confirms Bird Flu at Indiana Farm
Rose Acre Farms, the second-largest egg producer in the U.S., has just confirmed multiple bird flu-related deaths at its Indiana facility.
Bird flu has been on the rise in the U.S. in recent years, and Rose Acre Farms' facility in Seymour, Indiana, has now become a victim of the latest wave. According to the Indy Star, the farm was recently tested for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), more commonly known as bird flu. The
[2025-01-17] Gold Analysis Today 16 / 01 : After The $2 , 700 High ( Chart ) (menafn.com)
403
Sorry!!
Error! We're sorry, but the page you were looking for doesn't exist.
Gold Analysis Today 16/01: After The $2,700 High (Chart)
(MENAFN- Daily Forex)
- As expected, spot gold prices have moved towards the psychological resistance level, reaching $2,702 per ounce today, the highest price in a month, and is currently stable around this level. Gold prices have gained because of the easing of US core inflation, which has renewed hopes for a less restrictive policy from the US Federal Reser
[2025-01-27] Editorial Roundup : United States (mynorthwest.com)
Editorial Roundup: United States
Jul 14, 2025, 12:51 PM
Excerpts from recent editorials in the United States and abroad:
___
July 11
The Washington Post says the costs of Trump’s tariffs have become more clear
To many Americans, President Donald Trump’s tariffs might seem costless. That’s because it takes time for them to ripple through the economy. This was the week that the tariff illusion began to evaporate, with new data suggesting that American businesses are starting to feel the pain.
Sure
[2024-03-13] February 2024 CPI inflation flat at 5 . 09 %, as food prices edge higher (indiainfoline.com)
FEBRUARY 2024 INFLATION FLAT AT 5.09%
The Bloomberg survey of economists, conducted ahead of the actual inflation reading, was almost unerringly precise, once again in February 2024. The survey had projected headline inflation for February 2024 at 5.10% and the actual number came in at 5.09%. If you break up the inflation number, this flat inflation is despite a 30 bps fall in core inflation. That is because, the food inflation is higher by 36 bps and energy inflation is also marginally higher,
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.15 | fed_macro | polymarket | 521480 | 36 | 2025-02-04 | 2025-03-12 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will egg prices be between $5.25 and $5.50 in February?
Background: This market will resolve to the bracket within which the price for "Eggs, Grade A, Large (Cost per Dozen) in U.S. City Average" lies when the February data point is published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111).
The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for egg prices on the BLS's CPI release. The February release is presently scheduled for March 12, 2025. Resolution of this market will take place upon the update of the St. Louis Fed's chart.
The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-03-12.
Current market price: 0.17
Price history: 1d ago: 0.17
Time until resolution: 36 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-01-29] Major U . S . Egg Producer Confirms Bird Flu at Indiana Farm (newstalk1280.com)
Second-Largest U.S. Egg Producer Confirms Bird Flu at Indiana Farm
Rose Acre Farms, the second-largest egg producer in the U.S., has just confirmed multiple bird flu-related deaths at its Indiana facility.
Bird flu has been on the rise in the U.S. in recent years, and Rose Acre Farms' facility in Seymour, Indiana, has now become a victim of the latest wave. According to the Indy Star, the farm was recently tested for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), more commonly known as bird flu. The
[2025-02-01] US Dollar Weekly Forecast : Tariffs and the Fed underpin the outlook (fxstreet.com)
US Dollar Forecast: Attention shifts to the US labour market and Fedspeak
- The US Dollar Index resumed its weekly uptrend.
- US tariffs on Canada and Mexico kick in on February 1.
- The Federal Reserve kept its interest rates unchanged.
Following two consecutive weeks of losses, the Greenback managed to regain composure and eventually end the current week with marked gains. Indeed, the US Dollar Index (DXY) staged a meaningful comeback in the wake of Monday’s six-week lows just below the 107.00
[2025-01-17] Gold Analysis Today 16 / 01 : After The $2 , 700 High ( Chart ) (menafn.com)
403
Sorry!!
Error! We're sorry, but the page you were looking for doesn't exist.
Gold Analysis Today 16/01: After The $2,700 High (Chart)
(MENAFN- Daily Forex)
- As expected, spot gold prices have moved towards the psychological resistance level, reaching $2,702 per ounce today, the highest price in a month, and is currently stable around this level. Gold prices have gained because of the easing of US core inflation, which has renewed hopes for a less restrictive policy from the US Federal Reser
[2025-01-27] Editorial Roundup : United States (mynorthwest.com)
Editorial Roundup: United States
Jul 14, 2025, 12:51 PM
Excerpts from recent editorials in the United States and abroad:
___
July 11
The Washington Post says the costs of Trump’s tariffs have become more clear
To many Americans, President Donald Trump’s tariffs might seem costless. That’s because it takes time for them to ripple through the economy. This was the week that the tariff illusion began to evaporate, with new data suggesting that American businesses are starting to feel the pain.
Sure
[2024-03-13] February 2024 CPI inflation flat at 5 . 09 %, as food prices edge higher (indiainfoline.com)
FEBRUARY 2024 INFLATION FLAT AT 5.09%
The Bloomberg survey of economists, conducted ahead of the actual inflation reading, was almost unerringly precise, once again in February 2024. The survey had projected headline inflation for February 2024 at 5.10% and the actual number came in at 5.09%. If you break up the inflation number, this flat inflation is despite a 30 bps fall in core inflation. That is because, the food inflation is higher by 36 bps and energy inflation is also marginally higher,
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.165 | fed_macro | polymarket | 521481 | 36.5 | 2025-02-04 | 2025-03-12 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will Trump impose a blanket tariff of less than 10% on the EU by June 30?
Background: This market will resolve according to the size of the first general tariff enacted by the Trump administration on imports into the United States from the European Union (EU).
If the Trump administration does not impose a general tariff on the EU by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general tariff on imports into the United States from the European Unions is enacted.
Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect.
Only tariffs specifically targeting the EU will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) or a tariff on specific EU member states will not count toward this market's resolution.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-06-30.
Current market price: 0.07
Price history: 1d ago: 0.07
Time until resolution: 145 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-01-31] US braces for new Trump tariffs as deadline nears (merimbulanewsweekly.com.au)
US President Donald Trump says he will impose hefty new tariffs of 25 per cent on goods from Mexico and Canada and 10 per cent on imports from China, and nothing can be done by the three countries to forestall them.
Trump did, however, reference a potential carve out for oil from Canada, saying that rate would be 10 per cent versus the 25 per cent planned for other goods from the United States' northern neighbour. But he indicated wider tariffs on oil and natural gas would be coming in mid-Febru
[2025-01-31] World braces for market Spillover as Trump tariffs near (windsorstar.com)
World braces for market spillover as Trump tariffs near
'There’s a general feeling of uncertainty that goes beyond the tariff issue: Trump is completely unpredictable'
United States President Donald Trump is planning to slap tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico on Saturday. Now comes the guessing game of how they will affect the global stock market.
Distilling the nuance from the noise of any announcement from Trump will be a challenge for investors, given the options at his disposal. For exa
[2025-01-28] Trump Administration Tariff Regime : Uncertainty and Expectations | McGuireWoods LLP (jdsupra.com)
As he enters his second week in office, President Donald Trump is forecasting a desire to implement a muscular trade policy leaning heavily on the imposition of tariffs—potentially on a global basis—as a means of extracting favorable trade deals and other economic and political concessions from trading partners across the globe. As of this writing, much remains uncertain with respect to tariff implementation. What is clear is that President Trump’s tariff-related warnings have commercial and pol
[2025-01-27] President Trump Issues America First Trade Policy And Previews Additional Tariffs On Canada , Mexico , And China (mondaq.com)
- with readers working within the Insurance industries
This alert was originally published on January 21, 2025, and updated on January 22, 2025, to reflect President Trump's comments that additional 10% tariffs may be imposed on China on February 1.
On January 20, 2025, President Trump issued a broad-based memorandum to federal agency heads directing agencies to implement an "America First" trade policy. The memorandum references the policies of the President's first term and, in continuation of
[2024-11-29] Big EU economies must reform as Donald Trump tariffs loom | Kenneth Rogoff (theguardian.com)
As Europe prepares for a potential trade war after the US president-elect, Donald Trump, takes office in January, its two largest economies are struggling. While Germany is heading into its second consecutive year of zero growth, France is expected to grow by less than 1% in 2025.
Is Europe’s economic stagnation the result of insufficient Keynesian stimulus, or are its bloated and sclerotic welfare states to blame? Either way, it is clear that those who believe simple measures such as higher bud
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.07 | tariffs | polymarket | 521469 | 145.3 | 2025-02-05 | 2025-06-30 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will egg prices be less than $4.50 in February?
Background: This market will resolve to the bracket within which the price for "Eggs, Grade A, Large (Cost per Dozen) in U.S. City Average" lies when the February data point is published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111).
The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for egg prices on the BLS's CPI release. The February release is presently scheduled for March 12, 2025. Resolution of this market will take place upon the update of the St. Louis Fed's chart.
The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-03-12.
Current market price: 0.03
Price history: 1d ago: 0.03
Time until resolution: 35 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-02-04] Egg Prices In 2025 | Armstrong Economics (armstrongeconomics.com)
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt responded to an inquiry on rising egg prices by blaming the prior administration. Leavitt was correct when she stated that the Department of Agriculture was directed to kill over 100 million chickens, leading to a mass shortage. Prices steadily rose throughout Biden’s term, as an average dozen cost only $1.60 in February 2021.
Egg prices increased by 20% to $1.93 during Biden’s first year in office. We saw the avian flu outbreak in 2022, which along w
[2025-02-04] Egg prices : What goes up usually comes down | Stuttgart Daily Leader (stuttgartdailyleader.com)
FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — That omelet is costing more again thanks to highly pathogenic avian influenza, but Jada Thompson says the egg price rollercoaster has a downhill side too.
According to the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, since February 2022, HPAI has been detected in more than 1,400 flocks affecting 149.96 million birds. From Jan. 1-30 of this year, more than 19.63 million birds have been affected including 71 commercial flocks and 43 backyard flocks. The Animal and Plant Health
[2025-01-29] Major U . S . Egg Producer Confirms Bird Flu at Indiana Farm (newstalk1280.com)
Second-Largest U.S. Egg Producer Confirms Bird Flu at Indiana Farm
Rose Acre Farms, the second-largest egg producer in the U.S., has just confirmed multiple bird flu-related deaths at its Indiana facility.
Bird flu has been on the rise in the U.S. in recent years, and Rose Acre Farms' facility in Seymour, Indiana, has now become a victim of the latest wave. According to the Indy Star, the farm was recently tested for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), more commonly known as bird flu. The
[2025-01-17] Gold Analysis Today 16 / 01 : After The $2 , 700 High ( Chart ) (menafn.com)
403
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Error! We're sorry, but the page you were looking for doesn't exist.
Gold Analysis Today 16/01: After The $2,700 High (Chart)
(MENAFN- Daily Forex)
- As expected, spot gold prices have moved towards the psychological resistance level, reaching $2,702 per ounce today, the highest price in a month, and is currently stable around this level. Gold prices have gained because of the easing of US core inflation, which has renewed hopes for a less restrictive policy from the US Federal Reser
[2024-03-13] February 2024 CPI inflation flat at 5 . 09 %, as food prices edge higher (indiainfoline.com)
FEBRUARY 2024 INFLATION FLAT AT 5.09%
The Bloomberg survey of economists, conducted ahead of the actual inflation reading, was almost unerringly precise, once again in February 2024. The survey had projected headline inflation for February 2024 at 5.10% and the actual number came in at 5.09%. If you break up the inflation number, this flat inflation is despite a 30 bps fall in core inflation. That is because, the food inflation is higher by 36 bps and energy inflation is also marginally higher,
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.026 | fed_macro | polymarket | 521477 | 35.4 | 2025-02-05 | 2025-03-12 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Trump tariffs on Canada in effect by May 1?
Background: On February 3, Trump announced that “Tariffs announced on Saturday will be paused for a 30 day period” (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113942189236610107)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general tariff on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time between February 3, and May 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date for the tariffs must have passed without being further delayed or suspended.
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general tariff on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect.
Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-05-01.
Current market price: 0.36
Price history: 1d ago: 0.37
Time until resolution: 85 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-01-31] US braces for new Trump tariffs as deadline nears (merimbulanewsweekly.com.au)
US President Donald Trump says he will impose hefty new tariffs of 25 per cent on goods from Mexico and Canada and 10 per cent on imports from China, and nothing can be done by the three countries to forestall them.
Trump did, however, reference a potential carve out for oil from Canada, saying that rate would be 10 per cent versus the 25 per cent planned for other goods from the United States' northern neighbour. But he indicated wider tariffs on oil and natural gas would be coming in mid-Febru
[2025-02-01] Trump says he will place tariffs on Canada , Mexico and China on Saturday (maldonandburnhamstandard.co.uk)
US President Donald Trump has said he will place 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10% tariffs on goods from China effective on Saturday.
The move raises the spectre of swift price increases for US consumers as Mr Trump suggested he would try to blunt the impact on oil imports.
Mr Trump had been threatening the tariffs to ensure greater co-operation from the countries on stopping illegal immigration and the smuggling of chemicals used for fentanyl, but he has also pledged to use
[2025-01-27] President Trump Issues America First Trade Policy And Previews Additional Tariffs On Canada , Mexico , And China (mondaq.com)
- with readers working within the Insurance industries
This alert was originally published on January 21, 2025, and updated on January 22, 2025, to reflect President Trump's comments that additional 10% tariffs may be imposed on China on February 1.
On January 20, 2025, President Trump issued a broad-based memorandum to federal agency heads directing agencies to implement an "America First" trade policy. The memorandum references the policies of the President's first term and, in continuation of
[2025-01-29] America First Trade Policy : President Trump Orders Review Ahead of Potential Tariffs on China and Other Trading Partners | DLA Piper (jdsupra.com)
Tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China could go into effect on February 1; agencies have until April 1 to report findings and provide recommendations.
“My message to every business in the world is very simple: Come make your product in America and we will give you among the lowest taxes of any nation on Earth. But if you don’t make your product in America, which is your prerogative, then, very simply, you will have to pay a tariff.”
President Donald Trump,
virtually addressing the World Economic F
[2024-11-29] Canada weighing how to retaliate if Trump imposes 25 % tariffs (cbsnews.com)
Canada weighing how to retaliate if Trump imposes 25% tariffs
Experts say a volley of tariffs between the U.S. and Canada could tip both countries into a recession and severely disrupt cross-border commerce between the key trading partners.
A Canadian government official said Wednesday it is exploring potential retaliatory levies on certain U.S. imports after President-elect Donald Trump on Monday threatened to impose a 25% tariff on all goods from Canada and Mexico on his first day in office. T
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 1 | 0.365 | tariffs | polymarket | 521635 | 85.2 | 2025-02-05 | 2025-05-01 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in February?
Background: This market will resolve to the bracket within which the price for "Eggs, Grade A, Large (Cost per Dozen) in U.S. City Average" lies when the February data point is published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111).
The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for egg prices on the BLS's CPI release. The February release is presently scheduled for March 12, 2025. Resolution of this market will take place upon the update of the St. Louis Fed's chart.
The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-03-12.
Current market price: 0.11
Price history: 3d ago: 0.08, 1d ago: 0.16
Time until resolution: 34 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-02-04] Egg Prices In 2025 | Armstrong Economics (armstrongeconomics.com)
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt responded to an inquiry on rising egg prices by blaming the prior administration. Leavitt was correct when she stated that the Department of Agriculture was directed to kill over 100 million chickens, leading to a mass shortage. Prices steadily rose throughout Biden’s term, as an average dozen cost only $1.60 in February 2021.
Egg prices increased by 20% to $1.93 during Biden’s first year in office. We saw the avian flu outbreak in 2022, which along w
[2025-02-04] Egg prices : What goes up usually comes down | Stuttgart Daily Leader (stuttgartdailyleader.com)
FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — That omelet is costing more again thanks to highly pathogenic avian influenza, but Jada Thompson says the egg price rollercoaster has a downhill side too.
According to the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, since February 2022, HPAI has been detected in more than 1,400 flocks affecting 149.96 million birds. From Jan. 1-30 of this year, more than 19.63 million birds have been affected including 71 commercial flocks and 43 backyard flocks. The Animal and Plant Health
[2025-01-29] Major U . S . Egg Producer Confirms Bird Flu at Indiana Farm (newstalk1280.com)
Second-Largest U.S. Egg Producer Confirms Bird Flu at Indiana Farm
Rose Acre Farms, the second-largest egg producer in the U.S., has just confirmed multiple bird flu-related deaths at its Indiana facility.
Bird flu has been on the rise in the U.S. in recent years, and Rose Acre Farms' facility in Seymour, Indiana, has now become a victim of the latest wave. According to the Indy Star, the farm was recently tested for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), more commonly known as bird flu. The
[2025-01-17] Gold Analysis Today 16 / 01 : After The $2 , 700 High ( Chart ) (menafn.com)
403
Sorry!!
Error! We're sorry, but the page you were looking for doesn't exist.
Gold Analysis Today 16/01: After The $2,700 High (Chart)
(MENAFN- Daily Forex)
- As expected, spot gold prices have moved towards the psychological resistance level, reaching $2,702 per ounce today, the highest price in a month, and is currently stable around this level. Gold prices have gained because of the easing of US core inflation, which has renewed hopes for a less restrictive policy from the US Federal Reser
[2024-03-13] February 2024 CPI inflation flat at 5 . 09 %, as food prices edge higher (indiainfoline.com)
FEBRUARY 2024 INFLATION FLAT AT 5.09%
The Bloomberg survey of economists, conducted ahead of the actual inflation reading, was almost unerringly precise, once again in February 2024. The survey had projected headline inflation for February 2024 at 5.10% and the actual number came in at 5.09%. If you break up the inflation number, this flat inflation is despite a 30 bps fall in core inflation. That is because, the food inflation is higher by 36 bps and energy inflation is also marginally higher,
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 1 | 0.1115 | fed_macro | polymarket | 521483 | 34.3 | 2025-02-06 | 2025-03-12 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will Trump increase tariffs on China before May?
Background: On February 1, Donald Trump imposed a 10% tariff on imports from China (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action which imposes additional sanctions or increases the 10% general tariff on China by April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Only tariffs specifically targeting China will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
Any action which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the removal goes into effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-04-30.
Current market price: 0.37
Price history: 3d ago: 0.52, 1d ago: 0.36
Time until resolution: 82 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-02-01] Consumers brace for impact of China tariffs (newzealandstar.com)
Voice of America
01 Feb 2025, 05:05 GMT+10
washington - White House press secretary Karoline Levitt announced Friday that President Donald Trump would be implementing 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods and a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports on Saturday.
Consumers told VOA they were bracing for the possible impact of increased costs.
"I'm concerned about rising prices," Yon Bui, a student of music and computer science at Middlebury College in Vermont, said in an interview Thursday.
FILE -
[2025-02-01] Trump says he will place tariffs on Canada , Mexico and China on Saturday (maldonandburnhamstandard.co.uk)
US President Donald Trump has said he will place 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10% tariffs on goods from China effective on Saturday.
The move raises the spectre of swift price increases for US consumers as Mr Trump suggested he would try to blunt the impact on oil imports.
Mr Trump had been threatening the tariffs to ensure greater co-operation from the countries on stopping illegal immigration and the smuggling of chemicals used for fentanyl, but he has also pledged to use
[2025-01-31] US braces for new Trump tariffs as deadline nears (merimbulanewsweekly.com.au)
US President Donald Trump says he will impose hefty new tariffs of 25 per cent on goods from Mexico and Canada and 10 per cent on imports from China, and nothing can be done by the three countries to forestall them.
Trump did, however, reference a potential carve out for oil from Canada, saying that rate would be 10 per cent versus the 25 per cent planned for other goods from the United States' northern neighbour. But he indicated wider tariffs on oil and natural gas would be coming in mid-Febru
[2025-01-27] President Trump Issues America First Trade Policy And Previews Additional Tariffs On Canada , Mexico , And China (mondaq.com)
- with readers working within the Insurance industries
This alert was originally published on January 21, 2025, and updated on January 22, 2025, to reflect President Trump's comments that additional 10% tariffs may be imposed on China on February 1.
On January 20, 2025, President Trump issued a broad-based memorandum to federal agency heads directing agencies to implement an "America First" trade policy. The memorandum references the policies of the President's first term and, in continuation of
[2024-12-18] Strategies To Minimize Tariff Costs Under The Trump Administration (mondaq.com)
- within Intellectual Property topic(s)
Under the Trump administration 2.0, it is very likely that the United States will adopt a more protectionist trade policy, which will expressly include the increase in use and imposition of tariffs on imports, particularly on goods from China. Prior to this upcoming Trump presidency, the goal of G20 nations was generally inspired by notions of free trade. Absent circumvention or other bad trade behavior, the general harmonized tariff across the member nati
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 1 | 0.37 | tariffs | polymarket | 521464 | 81.7 | 2025-02-07 | 2025-04-30 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will Trump impose a blanket tariff of less than 10% on the EU by June 30?
Background: This market will resolve according to the size of the first general tariff enacted by the Trump administration on imports into the United States from the European Union (EU).
If the Trump administration does not impose a general tariff on the EU by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general tariff on imports into the United States from the European Unions is enacted.
Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect.
Only tariffs specifically targeting the EU will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) or a tariff on specific EU member states will not count toward this market's resolution.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-06-30.
Current market price: 0.06
Price history: 3d ago: 0.07, 1d ago: 0.06
Time until resolution: 143 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-01-31] US braces for new Trump tariffs as deadline nears (merimbulanewsweekly.com.au)
US President Donald Trump says he will impose hefty new tariffs of 25 per cent on goods from Mexico and Canada and 10 per cent on imports from China, and nothing can be done by the three countries to forestall them.
Trump did, however, reference a potential carve out for oil from Canada, saying that rate would be 10 per cent versus the 25 per cent planned for other goods from the United States' northern neighbour. But he indicated wider tariffs on oil and natural gas would be coming in mid-Febru
[2025-01-31] World braces for market Spillover as Trump tariffs near (windsorstar.com)
World braces for market spillover as Trump tariffs near
'There’s a general feeling of uncertainty that goes beyond the tariff issue: Trump is completely unpredictable'
United States President Donald Trump is planning to slap tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico on Saturday. Now comes the guessing game of how they will affect the global stock market.
Distilling the nuance from the noise of any announcement from Trump will be a challenge for investors, given the options at his disposal. For exa
[2025-01-28] Trump Administration Tariff Regime : Uncertainty and Expectations | McGuireWoods LLP (jdsupra.com)
As he enters his second week in office, President Donald Trump is forecasting a desire to implement a muscular trade policy leaning heavily on the imposition of tariffs—potentially on a global basis—as a means of extracting favorable trade deals and other economic and political concessions from trading partners across the globe. As of this writing, much remains uncertain with respect to tariff implementation. What is clear is that President Trump’s tariff-related warnings have commercial and pol
[2025-01-27] President Trump Issues America First Trade Policy And Previews Additional Tariffs On Canada , Mexico , And China (mondaq.com)
- with readers working within the Insurance industries
This alert was originally published on January 21, 2025, and updated on January 22, 2025, to reflect President Trump's comments that additional 10% tariffs may be imposed on China on February 1.
On January 20, 2025, President Trump issued a broad-based memorandum to federal agency heads directing agencies to implement an "America First" trade policy. The memorandum references the policies of the President's first term and, in continuation of
[2024-11-29] Big EU economies must reform as Donald Trump tariffs loom | Kenneth Rogoff (theguardian.com)
As Europe prepares for a potential trade war after the US president-elect, Donald Trump, takes office in January, its two largest economies are struggling. While Germany is heading into its second consecutive year of zero growth, France is expected to grow by less than 1% in 2025.
Is Europe’s economic stagnation the result of insufficient Keynesian stimulus, or are its bloated and sclerotic welfare states to blame? Either way, it is clear that those who believe simple measures such as higher bud
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.06 | tariffs | polymarket | 521469 | 143 | 2025-02-07 | 2025-06-30 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: DeepSeek banned in US before July?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US government ban that prohibits access or use of AI models owned by DeepSeek by the majority of Americans in the United States becomes legally enforceable for any amount of time between January 26, and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-06-30.
Current market price: 0.12
Price history: 7d ago: 0.17, 3d ago: 0.12, 1d ago: 0.14
Time until resolution: 142 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-02-06] Lawmakers say they plan to introduce bill to ban DeepSeek from US government devices (yahoo.com)
Lawmakers are unveiling a bill to ban DeepSeek from US government devices
Two House members are unveiling a bill that would ban DeepSeek's AI apps from US government devices.
The bill is designed to stop China from obtaining sensitive information, just like the TikTok ban.
"We've seen China's playbook before with TikTok," one of the bill's sponsors said.
Two lawmakers announced on Thursday that they're introducing a bill to ban Chinese startup DeepSeek's AI chatbot from government-owned devices.
[2025-02-06] Lawmakers Move to Ban DeepSeek From US Government Devices (businessinsider.com)
- Two House members are unveiling a bill that would ban DeepSeek's AI apps from US government devices.
- The bill is designed to stop China from obtaining sensitive information, just like the TikTok ban.
- "We've seen China's playbook before with TikTok," one of the bill's sponsors said.
Two lawmakers announced on Thursday that they're introducing a bill to ban Chinese startup DeepSeek's AI chatbot from government-owned devices.
The "No DeepSeek on Government Devices Act," sponsored by Democrati
[2025-02-01] DeepSeek being investigated by US Commerce Department (americanbazaaronline.com)
DeepSeek may already be in trouble with U.S. authorities. Reportedly, the U.S. Department of Commerce is looking into whether DeepSeek—the Chinese company whose AI model’s performance rocked the tech world—has been using U.S. chips that are not allowed to be shipped to China, a person familiar with the matter said.
DeepSeek had an impressive showing earlier this week after showcasing its new AI model. The company claimed that their new model was developed within a budget of $6 million. This clai
[2025-01-18] TikTok ban raises questions about future of the app in the U . S . (wtov9.com)
TikTok ban raises questions about future of the app in the U.S.
JEFFERSON COUNTY, Ohio — With the Supreme Court officially confirming a ban on TikTok, many are questioning what can be done to save the popular app.
While a court case from content creators and users is ongoing, local political experts suggest that hopes of former President Donald Trump reinstating the app may not be realistic.
Kristina Rohrer, a political analyst, explained,
"What the president does have the power to do, via an ex
[2024-03-13] Will TikTok be banned in the US ? (dailymail.co.uk)
Is TikTok really getting banned? Everything we know so far as shutdown looms ahead of Supreme Court's hearing
- Will social media giant find a way to keep operating? When is the closure due?
- READ MORE: TikTok ban divides Trump as Supreme Court prepares to hear case
TikTok is facing the growing risk that it will be shut down in the United States after Congress passed a law in 2024 banning the popular video sharing app.
The platform made an emergency plea to the Supreme Court in December 2024 to
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.125 | ai_sector | polymarket | 520454 | 141.6 | 2025-02-08 | 2025-06-30 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?
Background: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to be the Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve for any period of time between January 26, 2025 ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-12-31.
Current market price: 0.14
Price history: 7d ago: 0.13, 3d ago: 0.12, 1d ago: 0.14
Time until resolution: 326 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-02-06] Trump USTR pick pledges to open new markets for U . S . ag , biofuels | Agri - Pulse Communications , Inc . (agri-pulse.com)
Jamieson Greer, Trump’s pick to lead the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, on Thursday pledged to secure new markets for U.S. ag – singling out countries like India and Turkey for their high tariff barriers – and he promised to quickly review China’s shortcomings under the phase one deal.
Greer also told the Senate Finance Committee at his confirmation hearing that he would also seek to lower tariff barriers in the biofuels sector.
“Agriculture is something that is near and dear to my hea
[2025-02-07] Trump Bold Plan is Working - The Daily Reckoning (dailyreckoning.com)
Trump’s Bold Plan is Working
In the very near future, cutting-edge semiconductors will finally be made in the U.S.
TSMC’s new $40 billion Arizona plant will soon be producing 4 nanometer chips, which are on the edge of what’s possible today.
The company is reportedly in talks with NVIDIA to produce top-end GPUs at the facility. By 2028 the plant is expected to be producing 2 nanometer chips, which are the smallest and most advanced available.
Within a few years, the Arizona plant will be the wor
[2025-02-01] La resistencia de Jerome Powell | Diario Financiero (df.cl)
“No voy a responder ni hacer ningún comentario sobre lo que dijo el Presidente. No me corresponde hacerlo”. Tajante fue la respuesta del líder de la Reserva Federal, Jerome Powell, al ser consultado esta semana por las declaraciones de Donald Trump acerca de la institución monetaria.
El 23 de enero pasado, solo cuatros días después de su segundo arribo a la Casa Blanca, el Presidente de EEUU interpeló directamente a la Fed, en su intervención en el Foro Económico Mundial de Davos, señalando: “Ex
[2025-01-30] Powell says Fed in no hurry to cut rates (taipeitimes.com)
The US Federal Reserve is in no “hurry” to adjust interest rates again, central bank Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday, after policymakers voted to pause rate cuts in the first decision since Donald Trump’s White House return.
The Fed’s rate-setting committee voted unanimously to keep the bank’s benchmark lending rate at between 4.25 percent and 4.5 percent, the Fed announced in a statement.
“With our policy stance significantly less restrictive than it had been, and the economy remaining
[2024-03-07] Key Takeaways from Fed Chair Powell Testimony on Capitol Hill (thecoastguard.ca)
Mandel Nagan/AFP/Getty Images
Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell arrives to testify before a House Financial Services Committee hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC on March 6, 2024.
Washington DC
CNN
—
The Federal Reserve is in no rush to cut interest rates, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified before congressional lawmakers on Wednesday. That means more pain for Americans who have already faced nearly two years of rising borrowing costs on everything from car loans t
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.145 | fed_macro | polymarket | 520930 | 326.1 | 2025-02-08 | 2025-12-31 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: 50 or more bps decrease in ECB interest rates after March 2025 meeting?
Background: This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) March 2025 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is information from the ECB released after its meeting scheduled for March 5-6, 2025 according to their official calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official website of the ECB at https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by June 5, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-03-06.
Current market price: 0.03
Price history: 7d ago: 0.06, 3d ago: 0.04, 1d ago: 0.03
Time until resolution: 26 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-02-02] ET analysis : A rate cut seems to be a fait accompli ; but how risky is it ? (economictimes.indiatimes.com)
The uncertainty has very little to do with the Indian macroeconomy. On the contrary, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has served a perfect recipe for the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to vote for a rate reduction on February 7. In all probability, Governor Sanjay Malhotra would deliver what the market wants. (read the ET poll on the front page).
A constellation of forces - easing food inflation, slowing economic growth, crippling positive real interest rates and a government conscious of it
[2025-02-07] FxWirePro : EUR / AUD dips below lower range , bearish bias increases (econotimes.com)
• EUR/AUD fell on Thursday as the Australian dollar strengthened against the euro, driven by concerns over a global trade war after both the US and China implemented cautious tariff measures.
•US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are set to discuss trade issues in an upcoming call, sparking optimism that tensions could ease and tariffs may be reversed.
• Pair traded in 1.6594 -1.6509 range and was last trading at 1.6530 in late US afternoon.
• EUR/AUD is now on course to re
[2025-01-30] ECB lowers interest rates by 25 basis points - Xinhua (english.news.cn)
European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde speaks during a press conference at the ECB headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, Jan. 30, 2025. The ECB on Thursday decided to lower key interest rates by 25 basis points. (Xinhua/Zhang Fan)
FRANKFURT, Jan. 30 (Xinhua) -- The European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday decided to lower key interest rates by 25 basis points.
After the rate cuts, the interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending f
[2025-01-30] ECB cuts rates and leaves room for more easing (rte.ie)
The European Central Bank has cut interest rates and kept the door open to further policy easing as concerns over lacklustre economic growth supersede worries about persistent inflation.
It was the fifth ECB reduction since June and markets expect two or three more this year, driven by arguments that the biggest inflation surge in generations is nearly defeated and the flagging economy needs relief.
The decision means the ECB will cut its main rate from 3% to 2.75%.
It will immediately impact tr
[2024-10-18] ECB cuts rates by 25 basis points as inflation fades (china.org.cn)
This photo taken on July 27, 2023 shows the Euro sign in Frankfurt, Germany. [Photo/Xinhua]
The European Central Bank (ECB) decided on Thursday to lower three key interest rates by 25 basis points, its third rates cut this year, saying that disinflationary process is "well on track."
The interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility will be decreased to 3.25 percent, 3.4 percent and 3.65 percent respectively, with effect from Oct. 23.
T
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.0345 | fed_macro | polymarket | 521040 | 26.2 | 2025-02-08 | 2025-03-06 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during the March meeting?
Background: Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on March 19, 2025, at 2:00 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.
Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.
Compound words will not count.
If no such statement happens by April, 12, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-03-19.
Current market price: 0.17
Price history: 7d ago: 0.18, 3d ago: 0.23, 1d ago: 0.17
Time until resolution: 39 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-02-07] Trump Bold Plan is Working - The Daily Reckoning (dailyreckoning.com)
Trump’s Bold Plan is Working
In the very near future, cutting-edge semiconductors will finally be made in the U.S.
TSMC’s new $40 billion Arizona plant will soon be producing 4 nanometer chips, which are on the edge of what’s possible today.
The company is reportedly in talks with NVIDIA to produce top-end GPUs at the facility. By 2028 the plant is expected to be producing 2 nanometer chips, which are the smallest and most advanced available.
Within a few years, the Arizona plant will be the wor
[2025-02-06] Trump says he is not ready to discuss Snowden pardon (en.apa.az)
US President Donald Trump said he is not currently ready to discuss the possibility of pardoning former US National Security Agency employee Edward Snowden, who received asylum in Russia, APA reports quoting TASS.
"I'm not talking about that right now. There's a huge difference of opinion. Some people say he should be pardoned. Some people say it would be terrible. I'm not getting involved in that," Trump said during a speech at the White House, answering a reporter's question about the possibil
[2025-02-01] La resistencia de Jerome Powell | Diario Financiero (df.cl)
“No voy a responder ni hacer ningún comentario sobre lo que dijo el Presidente. No me corresponde hacerlo”. Tajante fue la respuesta del líder de la Reserva Federal, Jerome Powell, al ser consultado esta semana por las declaraciones de Donald Trump acerca de la institución monetaria.
El 23 de enero pasado, solo cuatros días después de su segundo arribo a la Casa Blanca, el Presidente de EEUU interpeló directamente a la Fed, en su intervención en el Foro Económico Mundial de Davos, señalando: “Ex
[2025-01-29] Is Trump Positioning for a No - Deal With Russia – or Not ? (lewrockwell.com)
Is Trump Positioning for a “No-Deal” With Russia – or Not?
January 29, 2025
The idea of inflicting “strategic defeats” on Russia has been a cornerstone of U.S. policy for so long a time that it transcends party lines
Trump’s rhetoric about Russia having lost 1 million men in the Ukraine conflict is not just nonsense (the real number not even reaching 100,000), but his resort to it underlines that the usual meme of Trump being just woefully misinformed is looking less and less plausible.
After to
[2024-03-11] Market outlook for this week ( March 11 to March 15 ) (indiainfoline.com)
WHY THE POWELL TESTIMONY WAS SIGNIFICANT THIS WEEK
Jerome Powell testified this week in front of the Senate Banking Committee of the US House of Representatives (Congress). This testimony assumes significance as it is made under oath and is an important part of the Fed communication. There were 5 important things Jerome Powell testified in front of the Congress; having significance for the global financial markets.
- Powell testified that the Fed had maintained status quo on rates since July 202
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.165 | fed_macro | polymarket | 521320 | 39.4 | 2025-02-08 | 2025-03-19 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will egg prices be between $4.75 and $5.00 in February?
Background: This market will resolve to the bracket within which the price for "Eggs, Grade A, Large (Cost per Dozen) in U.S. City Average" lies when the February data point is published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111).
The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for egg prices on the BLS's CPI release. The February release is presently scheduled for March 12, 2025. Resolution of this market will take place upon the update of the St. Louis Fed's chart.
The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-03-12.
Current market price: 0.04
Price history: 3d ago: 0.06, 1d ago: 0.04
Time until resolution: 32 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-02-04] Egg Prices In 2025 | Armstrong Economics (armstrongeconomics.com)
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt responded to an inquiry on rising egg prices by blaming the prior administration. Leavitt was correct when she stated that the Department of Agriculture was directed to kill over 100 million chickens, leading to a mass shortage. Prices steadily rose throughout Biden’s term, as an average dozen cost only $1.60 in February 2021.
Egg prices increased by 20% to $1.93 during Biden’s first year in office. We saw the avian flu outbreak in 2022, which along w
[2025-02-04] Egg prices : What goes up usually comes down | Stuttgart Daily Leader (stuttgartdailyleader.com)
FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — That omelet is costing more again thanks to highly pathogenic avian influenza, but Jada Thompson says the egg price rollercoaster has a downhill side too.
According to the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, since February 2022, HPAI has been detected in more than 1,400 flocks affecting 149.96 million birds. From Jan. 1-30 of this year, more than 19.63 million birds have been affected including 71 commercial flocks and 43 backyard flocks. The Animal and Plant Health
[2025-01-29] Major U . S . Egg Producer Confirms Bird Flu at Indiana Farm (newstalk1280.com)
Second-Largest U.S. Egg Producer Confirms Bird Flu at Indiana Farm
Rose Acre Farms, the second-largest egg producer in the U.S., has just confirmed multiple bird flu-related deaths at its Indiana facility.
Bird flu has been on the rise in the U.S. in recent years, and Rose Acre Farms' facility in Seymour, Indiana, has now become a victim of the latest wave. According to the Indy Star, the farm was recently tested for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), more commonly known as bird flu. The
[2025-01-17] Gold Analysis Today 16 / 01 : After The $2 , 700 High ( Chart ) (menafn.com)
403
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Gold Analysis Today 16/01: After The $2,700 High (Chart)
(MENAFN- Daily Forex)
- As expected, spot gold prices have moved towards the psychological resistance level, reaching $2,702 per ounce today, the highest price in a month, and is currently stable around this level. Gold prices have gained because of the easing of US core inflation, which has renewed hopes for a less restrictive policy from the US Federal Reser
[2024-03-13] February 2024 CPI inflation flat at 5 . 09 %, as food prices edge higher (indiainfoline.com)
FEBRUARY 2024 INFLATION FLAT AT 5.09%
The Bloomberg survey of economists, conducted ahead of the actual inflation reading, was almost unerringly precise, once again in February 2024. The survey had projected headline inflation for February 2024 at 5.10% and the actual number came in at 5.09%. If you break up the inflation number, this flat inflation is despite a 30 bps fall in core inflation. That is because, the food inflation is higher by 36 bps and energy inflation is also marginally higher,
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.0445 | fed_macro | polymarket | 521479 | 31.8 | 2025-02-08 | 2025-03-12 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?
Background: This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28, 2025, as of market close. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-02-28.
Current market price: 0.21
Price history: 7d ago: 0.09, 3d ago: 0.15, 1d ago: 0.20
Time until resolution: 19 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-02-07] Trump Bold Plan is Working - The Daily Reckoning (dailyreckoning.com)
Trump’s Bold Plan is Working
In the very near future, cutting-edge semiconductors will finally be made in the U.S.
TSMC’s new $40 billion Arizona plant will soon be producing 4 nanometer chips, which are on the edge of what’s possible today.
The company is reportedly in talks with NVIDIA to produce top-end GPUs at the facility. By 2028 the plant is expected to be producing 2 nanometer chips, which are the smallest and most advanced available.
Within a few years, the Arizona plant will be the wor
[2025-02-08] OpenAI plans to open an office in Germany (biztoc.com)
Markets
S&P FUTURES
6,412
1.73%
•
S&P
6,369
1.67%
•
Dow
45,167
1.73%
•
Nasdaq
20,948
2.15%
•
Russel
2,450
1.75%
•
VIX
31.05
13.16%
•
10Y
4.44
0.54%
•
Wilshire
42,053
0.00%
•
FTSE
9,967
0.05%
•
EuroStoxx
5,506
1.08%
•
DAX
22,301
1.38%
•
Hang Seng
24,952
0.38%
•
Nikkei
53,373
0.43%
•
Oil
99.64
5.46%
•
Gold
4,524
2.62%
•
Bitcoin
66,873
0.77%
Fear & Greed 10/100
Why did a judge deny the NCAA order against DraftKings?
Why did OpenAI's ChatGPT ads generate $100M in six weeks?
Why is Meta boosting Texa
[2025-02-01] Nvidia stock plunges , Bitcoin dips , Trump Media surges : Markets news (qz.com)
Nvidia stock plunges, Bitcoin dips, and Trump Media surges: Markets news roundup
Plus, the 5 best states in America for retirees — and the 5 worst
1 / 9
2025 will see the greatest surge of Americans turning 65, with an average of more than 11,000 people reaching the milestone every day.
For a large share of those Americans, retirement is on the mind. And where they choose to retire could have a big impact on their future happiness and peace of mind.
2 / 9
Nvidia $NVDA (NVDA) stock plunged 16% Mo
[2025-02-01] The blogger who helped spark Nvidia $600 billion stock collapse and a panic in Silicon Valley (biztoc.com)
Markets
S&P FUTURES
6,412
1.73%
•
S&P
6,369
1.67%
•
Dow
45,167
1.73%
•
Nasdaq
20,948
2.15%
•
Russel
2,450
1.75%
•
VIX
31.05
13.16%
•
10Y
4.44
0.54%
•
Wilshire
42,053
0.00%
•
FTSE
9,967
0.05%
•
EuroStoxx
5,506
1.08%
•
DAX
22,301
1.38%
•
Hang Seng
24,952
0.38%
•
Nikkei
53,373
0.43%
•
Oil
99.64
5.46%
•
Gold
4,524
2.62%
•
Bitcoin
66,825
0.69%
Fear & Greed 10/100
Why is CrowdStrike stock slipping?
Why are futures falling after Trump extended Iran strike pause?
Why is Jack Daniel's owner pursuing merg
[2024-06-14] When Will the Boom / Bust Rollercoaster End ? (investing.com)
Macquarie updates 2026 outlook for gold and silver. Here are the new targets
How can we know for sure the stock market is in a bubble? NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) has been up 155% year to date; its market cap is over $3 trillion. The company has gained the equivalent of Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) in just six months. And it is responsible for just over half of the S&P 500 gains this year.
For comparison, the equal-weight S&P is up just over 4% this year. NVDA has added the equivalent of Berkshire Hathaway's (
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.21 | ai_sector | polymarket | 520331 | 19.4 | 2025-02-09 | 2025-02-28 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will Trump impose tariffs on Panama in the first 100 days?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or his administration (including the Department of Commerce) impose any new or increased tariffs on the listed country by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-04-29.
Current market price: 0.27
Price history: 7d ago: 0.45, 3d ago: 0.28, 1d ago: 0.27
Time until resolution: 79 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-02-03] An Overview of President Trump Trade Policy to Date | Holland & Knight LLP (jdsupra.com)
President Donald Trump issued a presidential memorandum titled "America First Trade Policy" on Jan. 20, 2025, outlining the immediate trade priorities for his administration. The memorandum directs various federal agencies and the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) to evaluate key aspects of U.S. trade policy and issue reports to the president no later than April 30, 2025 (and, in some cases, on April 1).
These reports could serve as justification for trade measures, includi
[2025-02-07] Grappling with America First (financialexpress.com)
President Donald Trump’s America First trade policy has created turmoil across continents. Colombia, Canada, Mexico, and China have already faced the brunt of the muscular use of tariffs by the US for supposedly addressing illegal immigrants and illegal sales of fentanyl. President Trump has also threatened the European Union with high tariffs. What goals Trump will seek to achieve with his tariff threat and which country he will strike next remains uncertain.
While India has managed to stave of
[2025-01-31] US braces for new Trump tariffs as deadline nears (merimbulanewsweekly.com.au)
US President Donald Trump says he will impose hefty new tariffs of 25 per cent on goods from Mexico and Canada and 10 per cent on imports from China, and nothing can be done by the three countries to forestall them.
Trump did, however, reference a potential carve out for oil from Canada, saying that rate would be 10 per cent versus the 25 per cent planned for other goods from the United States' northern neighbour. But he indicated wider tariffs on oil and natural gas would be coming in mid-Febru
[2025-01-27] President Trump Issues America First Trade Policy And Previews Additional Tariffs On Canada , Mexico , And China (mondaq.com)
- with readers working within the Insurance industries
This alert was originally published on January 21, 2025, and updated on January 22, 2025, to reflect President Trump's comments that additional 10% tariffs may be imposed on China on February 1.
On January 20, 2025, President Trump issued a broad-based memorandum to federal agency heads directing agencies to implement an "America First" trade policy. The memorandum references the policies of the President's first term and, in continuation of
[2024-12-18] Strategies To Minimize Tariff Costs Under The Trump Administration (mondaq.com)
- within Intellectual Property topic(s)
Under the Trump administration 2.0, it is very likely that the United States will adopt a more protectionist trade policy, which will expressly include the increase in use and imposition of tariffs on imports, particularly on goods from China. Prior to this upcoming Trump presidency, the goal of G20 nations was generally inspired by notions of free trade. Absent circumvention or other bad trade behavior, the general harmonized tariff across the member nati
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.27 | tariffs | polymarket | 520685 | 78.8 | 2025-02-09 | 2025-04-29 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will Trump impose tariffs on the EU in the first 100 days?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or his administration (including the Department of Commerce) impose any new or increased tariffs on the European Union by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-04-29.
Current market price: 0.75
Price history: 7d ago: 0.75, 3d ago: 0.74, 1d ago: 0.73
Time until resolution: 79 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-02-03] An Overview of President Trump Trade Policy to Date | Holland & Knight LLP (jdsupra.com)
President Donald Trump issued a presidential memorandum titled "America First Trade Policy" on Jan. 20, 2025, outlining the immediate trade priorities for his administration. The memorandum directs various federal agencies and the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) to evaluate key aspects of U.S. trade policy and issue reports to the president no later than April 30, 2025 (and, in some cases, on April 1).
These reports could serve as justification for trade measures, includi
[2025-02-06] How the U . S . has used tariffs through history and why Trump is different , economists say (nbcphiladelphia.com)
- The U.S. has used tariffs since its founding in the 18th century.
- They were primarily a way to raise revenue in the nation's early days. Later, tariffs were largely used to restrict imports or as a bargaining chip to reduce trade barriers.
- President Donald Trump's use of the import duties has broken with historical norms, economists and historians said.
President Donald Trump imposed broad tariffs on China that took effect Tuesday, while his tariff threats hang over other major trading par
[2025-01-31] US braces for new Trump tariffs as deadline nears (merimbulanewsweekly.com.au)
US President Donald Trump says he will impose hefty new tariffs of 25 per cent on goods from Mexico and Canada and 10 per cent on imports from China, and nothing can be done by the three countries to forestall them.
Trump did, however, reference a potential carve out for oil from Canada, saying that rate would be 10 per cent versus the 25 per cent planned for other goods from the United States' northern neighbour. But he indicated wider tariffs on oil and natural gas would be coming in mid-Febru
[2025-01-27] President Trump Issues America First Trade Policy And Previews Additional Tariffs On Canada , Mexico , And China (mondaq.com)
- with readers working within the Insurance industries
This alert was originally published on January 21, 2025, and updated on January 22, 2025, to reflect President Trump's comments that additional 10% tariffs may be imposed on China on February 1.
On January 20, 2025, President Trump issued a broad-based memorandum to federal agency heads directing agencies to implement an "America First" trade policy. The memorandum references the policies of the President's first term and, in continuation of
[2024-11-29] Big EU economies must reform as Donald Trump tariffs loom | Kenneth Rogoff (theguardian.com)
As Europe prepares for a potential trade war after the US president-elect, Donald Trump, takes office in January, its two largest economies are struggling. While Germany is heading into its second consecutive year of zero growth, France is expected to grow by less than 1% in 2025.
Is Europe’s economic stagnation the result of insufficient Keynesian stimulus, or are its bloated and sclerotic welfare states to blame? Either way, it is clear that those who believe simple measures such as higher bud
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 1 | 0.75 | tariffs | polymarket | 521268 | 78.7 | 2025-02-09 | 2025-04-29 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before May?
Background: On February 1, Donald Trump imposed a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action which removes the 25% general tariff on Mexico by April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which remove the general 25% tariff will qualify even if there are item specific exceptions for which the tariff still applies. However, lowering the general tariff below 25% without removing it will not qualify.
Any action which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the removal goes into effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-04-30.
Current market price: 0.61
Price history: 3d ago: 0.60, 1d ago: 0.61
Time until resolution: 80 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-02-07] Trump Tariffs Require Customs Agents To Check All Mail from China (yahoo.com)
Trump's Tariffs Require Customs Agents To Check All Mail from China
- President Trump announced tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, eliminating de minimis exemptions for low-dollar-value imports, which would increase prices for cash-strapped consumers.
President Donald Trump announced his promised tariffs on Saturday and paused those levied against Mexico and Canada on Monday for 30 days. In addition to threatening to impose double-digit duties on all products imported from Canada, Mexico, and
[2025-02-06] Why Trump repeal of a trade loophole will hurt Americans (bdnews24.com)
Published : 07 Feb 2025, 01:32 AM
Prices will rise for Americans who buy $5 shirts, $10 lamps and $20 shoes on direct-from-China shopping sites like Shein and Temu after US President Donald Trump suddenly shut a trade loophole that had been used to ship low-value packages duty-free from China.
But the cancellation this week of the so-called de minimis loophole will strain American consumers unevenly, according to economists who analyzed data on millions of shipments to the US from three global c
[2025-01-31] US braces for new Trump tariffs as deadline nears (merimbulanewsweekly.com.au)
US President Donald Trump says he will impose hefty new tariffs of 25 per cent on goods from Mexico and Canada and 10 per cent on imports from China, and nothing can be done by the three countries to forestall them.
Trump did, however, reference a potential carve out for oil from Canada, saying that rate would be 10 per cent versus the 25 per cent planned for other goods from the United States' northern neighbour. But he indicated wider tariffs on oil and natural gas would be coming in mid-Febru
[2025-02-01] Trump says he will place tariffs on Canada , Mexico and China on Saturday (maldonandburnhamstandard.co.uk)
US President Donald Trump has said he will place 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10% tariffs on goods from China effective on Saturday.
The move raises the spectre of swift price increases for US consumers as Mr Trump suggested he would try to blunt the impact on oil imports.
Mr Trump had been threatening the tariffs to ensure greater co-operation from the countries on stopping illegal immigration and the smuggling of chemicals used for fentanyl, but he has also pledged to use
[2024-12-18] The power of real reality (record-bee.com)
Donald Trump has vowed to impose 25% tariffs on imported goods from Mexico and Canada unless, he says, those neighbors stem the flow of illegal migrants and drugs into the United States. Chinese imports, he adds, will be taxed an extra 10% unless Beijing cracks down on the production of the narcotic fentanyl.
Perhaps Trump is bluffing; it’s always hard to separate his bluster from his true intentions. But if he carries out his threats, the big losers will be American consumers — including a grea
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.615 | tariffs | polymarket | 521455 | 80.5 | 2025-02-09 | 2025-04-30 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will Trump impose no general tariff on the EU by June 30?
Background: This market will resolve according to the size of the first general tariff enacted by the Trump administration on imports into the United States from the European Union (EU).
If the Trump administration does not impose a general tariff on the EU by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general tariff on imports into the United States from the European Unions is enacted.
Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect.
Only tariffs specifically targeting the EU will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) or a tariff on specific EU member states will not count toward this market's resolution.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-06-30.
Current market price: 0.39
Price history: 3d ago: 0.26, 1d ago: 0.40
Time until resolution: 141 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-02-03] An Overview of President Trump Trade Policy to Date | Holland & Knight LLP (jdsupra.com)
President Donald Trump issued a presidential memorandum titled "America First Trade Policy" on Jan. 20, 2025, outlining the immediate trade priorities for his administration. The memorandum directs various federal agencies and the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) to evaluate key aspects of U.S. trade policy and issue reports to the president no later than April 30, 2025 (and, in some cases, on April 1).
These reports could serve as justification for trade measures, includi
[2025-02-06] How the U . S . has used tariffs through history and why Trump is different , economists say (nbcphiladelphia.com)
- The U.S. has used tariffs since its founding in the 18th century.
- They were primarily a way to raise revenue in the nation's early days. Later, tariffs were largely used to restrict imports or as a bargaining chip to reduce trade barriers.
- President Donald Trump's use of the import duties has broken with historical norms, economists and historians said.
President Donald Trump imposed broad tariffs on China that took effect Tuesday, while his tariff threats hang over other major trading par
[2025-01-31] US braces for new Trump tariffs as deadline nears (merimbulanewsweekly.com.au)
US President Donald Trump says he will impose hefty new tariffs of 25 per cent on goods from Mexico and Canada and 10 per cent on imports from China, and nothing can be done by the three countries to forestall them.
Trump did, however, reference a potential carve out for oil from Canada, saying that rate would be 10 per cent versus the 25 per cent planned for other goods from the United States' northern neighbour. But he indicated wider tariffs on oil and natural gas would be coming in mid-Febru
[2025-01-31] World braces for market Spillover as Trump tariffs near (windsorstar.com)
World braces for market spillover as Trump tariffs near
'There’s a general feeling of uncertainty that goes beyond the tariff issue: Trump is completely unpredictable'
United States President Donald Trump is planning to slap tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico on Saturday. Now comes the guessing game of how they will affect the global stock market.
Distilling the nuance from the noise of any announcement from Trump will be a challenge for investors, given the options at his disposal. For exa
[2024-11-29] Big EU economies must reform as Donald Trump tariffs loom | Kenneth Rogoff (theguardian.com)
As Europe prepares for a potential trade war after the US president-elect, Donald Trump, takes office in January, its two largest economies are struggling. While Germany is heading into its second consecutive year of zero growth, France is expected to grow by less than 1% in 2025.
Is Europe’s economic stagnation the result of insufficient Keynesian stimulus, or are its bloated and sclerotic welfare states to blame? Either way, it is clear that those who believe simple measures such as higher bud
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.39 | tariffs | polymarket | 521468 | 141 | 2025-02-09 | 2025-06-30 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will fewer than 50k federal employees accept the buyout?
Background: The Trump administration announced Tuesday that it is offering deferred resignations to all federal employees who opt to leave their jobs by February 6 (see: https://www.opm.gov/fork)
This market will resolve according to the number of employees that accept the deferred resignation offer.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the number is reported as a percentage of the Federal workforce, with no reporting of the actual number by February 28, 11:59 PM ET, this market will use the most exact unrounded percentage reported out of 3,010,000 to calculate the number of deferred resignations (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001).
If the Trump Administration does not publish the number or percentage of employees that accept the deferred resignation offer by February 28, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-02-28.
Current market price: 0.04
Price history: 7d ago: 0.33, 3d ago: 0.03, 1d ago: 0.04
Time until resolution: 18 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-02-07] Elon Musk scheme for US federal employees : which jobs are going ? (thetimes.com)
Elon Musk’s scheme for US federal employees: which jobs are going? From DEI to the FBI, more than 2 million federal workers have been offered the chance to resign — and warned they could be fired if they don’t Previous Article Next Article
[2025-02-07] Judge delays program offering federal workers incentives to quit (westhawaiitoday.com)
Judge delays program offering federal workers incentives to quit
WASHINGTON — A federal judge in Massachusetts barred the Trump administration Thursday from imposing a midnight deadline on federal workers who were offered the chance to take a deferred resignation, pausing the initiative until a hearing Monday afternoon.
The offer, which had been set to expire at 11:59 p.m. Thursday, is part of a sweeping effort by President Donald Trump and billionaire Elon Musk to drastically cut the size of th
[2025-01-17] US Fed may pause rate cuts in January 2025 : Reuters poll (invezz.com)
Fed may pause rate cuts in January amid inflation concerns tied to Trump’s policies: Reuters poll
Mar 27, 2026, 16:02 PM
Central banks
Brazil central bank orders liquidation of Entrepay units over risks
Mar 27, 2026, 15:31 PM
Economic
Mexico swings to deficit as import surge outpaces export growth
Mar 27, 2026, 10:47 AM
Artificial intelligence
After Hormuz, is Taiwan the next economic shock no one is ready for?
Mar 27, 2026, 08:45 AM
Commodities
Another energy chokepoint? As Iran‑US war drags on
[2025-01-21] Who Donald Trump Could Pardon in His First 100 Days (newsweek.com)
As speculation grows about possible pardons under the new administration, bettors on the online prediction platform Polymarket have shared their forecasts for who could receive clemency in President Donald Trump's first 100 days.
Newsweek has contacted the White House for comment on Polymarket's list of potential Trump pardonees.
Why It Matters
Polymarket, which gained prominence and credibility for correctly calling the results of the 2024 election, calculates odds based on how many "shares" us
[2024-09-06] Is the August jobs report exactly what the Fed needed to hear ? (housingwire.com)
August’s gain of just 142,000 total nonfarm payroll jobs confirms that the job market is cooling, which all in all is good news for the Federal Reserve, which meets in a little under two weeks to discuss interest rates. But is it enough to justify a half-point cut?
Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released on Friday also showed that the June jobs report was revised downward to 118,000 jobs (from 179,000) and July down to 89,000 jobs (from 114,000).
The unemployment rate remained fai
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.037 | mna_corporate | polymarket | 520751 | 18.1 | 2025-02-10 | 2025-02-28 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting?
Background: Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on March 19, 2025, at 2:00 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.
Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.
Compound words will not count.
If no such statement happens by April, 12, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-03-19.
Current market price: 0.96
Price history: 7d ago: 0.96, 3d ago: 0.96, 1d ago: 0.96
Time until resolution: 37 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-02-04] Smoot - Hawley redux ? (scmr.com)
="margin-bottom:8px">I am reminded of the quote, “those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it,” attributed to George Santayana in 1905. Now, in 2025, the implementation of tariffs on our biggest trading partners including China, Mexico, and Canada, threatens an historical result similar to Smoot-Hawley.
The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was passed in 1930 by Congress and signed into law by President Herbert Hoover. The act was named after its sponsors, Republican U.S. Sen. Reed Smoot
[2025-02-07] Trump Bold Plan is Working - The Daily Reckoning (dailyreckoning.com)
Trump’s Bold Plan is Working
In the very near future, cutting-edge semiconductors will finally be made in the U.S.
TSMC’s new $40 billion Arizona plant will soon be producing 4 nanometer chips, which are on the edge of what’s possible today.
The company is reportedly in talks with NVIDIA to produce top-end GPUs at the facility. By 2028 the plant is expected to be producing 2 nanometer chips, which are the smallest and most advanced available.
Within a few years, the Arizona plant will be the wor
[2025-01-27] Editorial Roundup : United States (mynorthwest.com)
Editorial Roundup: United States
Jul 14, 2025, 12:51 PM
Excerpts from recent editorials in the United States and abroad:
___
July 11
The Washington Post says the costs of Trump’s tariffs have become more clear
To many Americans, President Donald Trump’s tariffs might seem costless. That’s because it takes time for them to ripple through the economy. This was the week that the tariff illusion began to evaporate, with new data suggesting that American businesses are starting to feel the pain.
Sure
[2025-02-01] La resistencia de Jerome Powell | Diario Financiero (df.cl)
“No voy a responder ni hacer ningún comentario sobre lo que dijo el Presidente. No me corresponde hacerlo”. Tajante fue la respuesta del líder de la Reserva Federal, Jerome Powell, al ser consultado esta semana por las declaraciones de Donald Trump acerca de la institución monetaria.
El 23 de enero pasado, solo cuatros días después de su segundo arribo a la Casa Blanca, el Presidente de EEUU interpeló directamente a la Fed, en su intervención en el Foro Económico Mundial de Davos, señalando: “Ex
[2024-05-03] This week in Bidenomics : No stag , no flation , just consternation (aol.com)
This week in Bidenomics: No stag, no 'flation, just consternation
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave a backhand compliment to the Biden economy during his latest press conference on May 1. When a reporter asked if the US economy was entering a period of stagflation, Powell said, “I don’t see the stag or the 'flation.”
So we’ve got that going for us: no stagflation.
Some alarmists think they see signs of it, which would delight Biden critics hoping for an economic collapse that would doom t
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 1 | 0.957 | tariffs | polymarket | 521319 | 37.3 | 2025-02-10 | 2025-03-19 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will Trump impose tariffs on Taiwan before March?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or his administration (including the Department of Commerce) impose any new or increased tariffs on the Republic of China (Taiwan) by February 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-02-28.
Current market price: 0.05
Price history: 7d ago: 0.14, 3d ago: 0.20, 1d ago: 0.07
Time until resolution: 17 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-02-07] Trump Tariffs Require Customs Agents To Check All Mail from China (yahoo.com)
Trump's Tariffs Require Customs Agents To Check All Mail from China
- President Trump announced tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, eliminating de minimis exemptions for low-dollar-value imports, which would increase prices for cash-strapped consumers.
President Donald Trump announced his promised tariffs on Saturday and paused those levied against Mexico and Canada on Monday for 30 days. In addition to threatening to impose double-digit duties on all products imported from Canada, Mexico, and
[2025-02-06] Why Trump repeal of a trade loophole will hurt Americans (bdnews24.com)
Published : 07 Feb 2025, 01:32 AM
Prices will rise for Americans who buy $5 shirts, $10 lamps and $20 shoes on direct-from-China shopping sites like Shein and Temu after US President Donald Trump suddenly shut a trade loophole that had been used to ship low-value packages duty-free from China.
But the cancellation this week of the so-called de minimis loophole will strain American consumers unevenly, according to economists who analyzed data on millions of shipments to the US from three global c
[2025-02-01] Consumers brace for impact of China tariffs (newzealandstar.com)
Voice of America
01 Feb 2025, 05:05 GMT+10
washington - White House press secretary Karoline Levitt announced Friday that President Donald Trump would be implementing 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods and a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports on Saturday.
Consumers told VOA they were bracing for the possible impact of increased costs.
"I'm concerned about rising prices," Yon Bui, a student of music and computer science at Middlebury College in Vermont, said in an interview Thursday.
FILE -
[2025-01-27] President Trump Issues America First Trade Policy And Previews Additional Tariffs On Canada , Mexico , And China (mondaq.com)
- with readers working within the Insurance industries
This alert was originally published on January 21, 2025, and updated on January 22, 2025, to reflect President Trump's comments that additional 10% tariffs may be imposed on China on February 1.
On January 20, 2025, President Trump issued a broad-based memorandum to federal agency heads directing agencies to implement an "America First" trade policy. The memorandum references the policies of the President's first term and, in continuation of
[2024-09-01] Ryan Hass On Taiwan : An affirmative US - Taiwan vision (taipeitimes.com)
There will be a new presidential administration in the United States in January 2025. It will be important for the Lai (賴清德) administration and America’s next administration to get on the same page quickly and visibly in respective efforts to bolster Taiwan’s security, economic vitality, and dignity and respect on the world stage. One key measure for doing so will be whether Washington and Taipei can coalesce around a common narrative for moving US-Taiwan relations forward.
In recent years, Wash
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.052 | tariffs | polymarket | 520674 | 17 | 2025-02-11 | 2025-02-28 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will 10% or more CIA personnel accept buyout offer before March?
Background: On February 4, The Central Intelligence Agency offered buyouts to its entire workforce (see: https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/the-cia-is-about-to-get-a-trump-makeover-16fc0cbf)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 10% or more of CIA employees accept the buyout resignation offer. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump Administration and the CIA. If the number is only reported as an absolute number by February 28, 11:59 PM ET, this market will use the most exact unrounded percentage using the reported number out of 23,000 to calculate the percentage of employees that accepted the buyout.
If the Trump Administration does not publish the number or percentage of CIA employees that accept the buyout offer by February 28, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-02-28.
Current market price: 0.02
Price history: 3d ago: 0.03, 1d ago: 0.02
Time until resolution: 17 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-02-07] Elon Musk scheme for US federal employees : which jobs are going ? (thetimes.com)
Elon Musk’s scheme for US federal employees: which jobs are going? From DEI to the FBI, more than 2 million federal workers have been offered the chance to resign — and warned they could be fired if they don’t Previous Article Next Article
[2025-02-10] CNBC Daily Open : Enthusiasm over Trump and AI appears to be waning (nbclosangeles.com)
The excitement over artificial intelligence and U.S. President Donald Trump's perceived friendliness to the stock market buoyed investor sentiment as recently as December. In 2025, it seems those animal spirits have somewhat evaporated.
Stream Los Angeles News for free, 24/7, wherever you are.
Any time Trump brings up tariffs, investors have been reacting badly (for good reason). His threat of reciprocal tariffs on Friday — that is, imposing on other countries the same degree of duties that they
[2025-01-29] Is Trump Positioning for a No - Deal With Russia – or Not ? (lewrockwell.com)
Is Trump Positioning for a “No-Deal” With Russia – or Not?
January 29, 2025
The idea of inflicting “strategic defeats” on Russia has been a cornerstone of U.S. policy for so long a time that it transcends party lines
Trump’s rhetoric about Russia having lost 1 million men in the Ukraine conflict is not just nonsense (the real number not even reaching 100,000), but his resort to it underlines that the usual meme of Trump being just woefully misinformed is looking less and less plausible.
After to
[2025-02-01] Stocks hit , Dollar bid as Trump sticks with Feb 1st tariffs - Newsquawk US Market Wrap (zerohedge.com)
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[2024-07-05] 5 things to know before the stock market opens Friday (nbcchicago.com)
- The U.S. economy added 206,000 jobs in June.
- Saks Fifth Avenue parent HBC said it would purchase Neiman Marcus Group in a deal valued at $2.65 billion.
- Some wealthy Democratic donors say they'll withhold their money unless President Joe Biden drops out of the presidential race.
Stream NBC 5 for free, 24/7, wherever you are.
Here are five key things investors need to know to start the trading day:
1. Hot streak
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite each touched fresh all-time highs on Wednes
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.0225 | mna_corporate | polymarket | 521907 | 17.4 | 2025-02-11 | 2025-02-28 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Price of dozen eggs hits $5 before April?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the price for "Eggs, Grade A, Large (Cost per Dozen) in U.S. City Average" is $5.000 or greater when for any datapoint between January and March according to the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for egg prices on the BLS's CPI releases. The March release is presently scheduled for April 10, 2025. Resolution of this market will take place upon the update of the St. Louis Fed's chart.
The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-04-10.
Current market price: 0.94
Price history: 7d ago: 0.90, 3d ago: 0.92, 1d ago: 0.93
Time until resolution: 57 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-02-11] Bird flu latest updates : Hundreds of eggs stolen from Seattle cafe in 2nd egg heist since prices have soared (yahoo.com)
Bird flu latest updates: Wyoming confirms state's 1st human case of bird flu, bringing total to 70 across 13 states
Bird flu is spreading across the United States, causing egg shortages and soaring prices at supermarkets and restaurants — however, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says that the current public health risk is low.
The CDC's website currently indicates 70 confirmed human cases across 13 states, with one death in Louisiana associated with the H5N1 infection.
The most re
[2025-02-09] How to cook the perfect boiled egg , according to science | iNFOnews | Thompson - Okanagan News Source (infotel.ca)
Cartons of eggs are displayed for sale on grocery store shelves in New York on Wednesday, Feb. 5, 2025.
Image Credit: (AP Photo/Mary Conlon)
February 09, 2025 - 9:00 AM
NEW YORK (AP) — Scientists say they've cracked the code for boiling the perfect egg.
It's a recipe you can test for yourself — though the timing isn't ideal with soaring egg prices in the United States from a bird flu outbreak.
The perfect boiled egg has a velvety yolk paired with a soft, solid white.
Achieving this balance can b
[2025-02-04] Egg Prices In 2025 | Armstrong Economics (armstrongeconomics.com)
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt responded to an inquiry on rising egg prices by blaming the prior administration. Leavitt was correct when she stated that the Department of Agriculture was directed to kill over 100 million chickens, leading to a mass shortage. Prices steadily rose throughout Biden’s term, as an average dozen cost only $1.60 in February 2021.
Egg prices increased by 20% to $1.93 during Biden’s first year in office. We saw the avian flu outbreak in 2022, which along w
[2025-02-04] Egg prices : What goes up usually comes down | Stuttgart Daily Leader (stuttgartdailyleader.com)
FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — That omelet is costing more again thanks to highly pathogenic avian influenza, but Jada Thompson says the egg price rollercoaster has a downhill side too.
According to the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, since February 2022, HPAI has been detected in more than 1,400 flocks affecting 149.96 million birds. From Jan. 1-30 of this year, more than 19.63 million birds have been affected including 71 commercial flocks and 43 backyard flocks. The Animal and Plant Health
[2024-03-31] How It Started ... How It Going : Price of eggs , chocolate remain higher than usual amid Easter festivities (foxbusiness.com)
Price of eggs, chocolate remain higher than usual amid Easter festivities
Emily Metz, president and CEO of the American Egg Board, told Fox Business '3 billion eggs' are estimated to be consumed this season
Inflation and other factors related to the U.S. economy continue to wreak havoc on Americans, and the price of Easter essentials, including eggs, chocolate and candy, remains at near-historic highs.
The average price for a dozen grade A eggs in cities throughout the United States sat at aroun
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 1 | 0.94 | fed_macro | polymarket | 520813 | 57.3 | 2025-02-12 | 2025-04-10 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: No change in ECB interest rates after March 2025 meeting?
Background: This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) March 2025 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is information from the ECB released after its meeting scheduled for March 5-6, 2025 according to their official calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official website of the ECB at https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by June 5, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-03-06.
Current market price: 0.02
Price history: 7d ago: 0.02, 3d ago: 0.03, 1d ago: 0.03
Time until resolution: 22 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-02-10] Traders Rethink Interest - Rate Path As Inflation Concerns Resume : Fed Rate - Cutting Cycle Is Over , Economist Says - iShares TIPS Bond ETF ( ARCA : TIP ), SPDR Gold Trust ( ARCA : GLD ) (benzinga.com)
Investors are recalibrating their expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts after an unexpected surge in consumer inflation.
Fed futures now reflect just 36 basis points of cumulative rate cuts by year-end. This implies only a 50% probability of two reductions, according to CME FedWatch tool.
Markets increasingly see just one rate cut as the most likely scenario, versus the two-cut path indicated in December.
Betting odds tracked by the CFTC-regulated Kalshi currently assign a 25% probability t
[2025-02-06] Bank of Canada Tiff Macklem says tariff threat adds to central bank challenges (toronto.citynews.ca)
Bank of Canada’s Tiff Macklem says tariff threat adds to central bank challenges
Posted February 6, 2025 5:24 pm.
Last Updated February 6, 2025 5:56 pm.
Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem says central banks face an increasingly difficult job as the country faces a maelstrom of potential U.S. tariffs, technological disruptions, extreme weather and global political upheaval.
“President Donald Trump’s threats of new tariffs are already affecting business and household confidence, particularly in
[2025-01-30] ECB lowers interest rates by 25 basis points - Xinhua (english.news.cn)
European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde speaks during a press conference at the ECB headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, Jan. 30, 2025. The ECB on Thursday decided to lower key interest rates by 25 basis points. (Xinhua/Zhang Fan)
FRANKFURT, Jan. 30 (Xinhua) -- The European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday decided to lower key interest rates by 25 basis points.
After the rate cuts, the interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending f
[2025-01-30] EUR / USD Analysis Today 30 / 01 : Will ECB Change Policy ( Chart ) (dailyforex.com)
- As widely expected, the US Federal Reserve kept US interest rates unchanged.
- This event did not significantly alter the performance of the EUR/USD currency pair, which remained stable within a range between the support level of 1.0383 and the resistance level of 1.0443, before settling around 1.0415 at the time of writing this analysis.
- This is ahead of the next important announcement for the currency pair, as the European Central Bank will announce today an update to its monetary policy.
[2024-04-11] ECB holds rates with anticipation of cuts rising (portfolio-adviser.com)
The European Central Bank (ECB) elected to hold rates in today’s meeting (11 April) while ECB president Christine Lagarde noted that inflation looks likely to hit its 2% target in 2025.
The ECB has held rates at their highest level in over two decades since September 2024, with main refinancing operations at 4.5%, marginal lending facility at 4.75%, and deposit facility at 4%.
The rate decision came after inflation decreased to 2.4% in March 2024 from 2.8% in February and 3.1% in January.
Des La
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.0245 | fed_macro | polymarket | 521038 | 21.8 | 2025-02-12 | 2025-03-06 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will Trump say 'tariff' 5+ times times during the 2025 State of the Union?
Background: Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver the 2025 State of the Union address on March 4, 2025, 9:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the 2025 State of the Union address. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.
Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.
Compound words will not count.
If the 2025 State of the Union does not happen by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If Trump ceases to be President of the United States for any length of time by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the press briefing.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-03-04.
Current market price: 0.47
Price history: 7d ago: 0.47, 3d ago: 0.47, 1d ago: 0.47
Time until resolution: 20 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-02-10] Food and Beverage News and Trends - February 2025 | DLA Piper (jdsupra.com)
This regular publication by DLA Piper lawyers focuses on helping clients navigate the ever-changing business, legal, and regulatory landscape.
- New Trump Administration tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. On February 1, 2025, President Donald Trump signed three Executive Orders instituting sweeping new tariffs on all goods imported from Canada, Mexico, and China, pursuant to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The EOs impose an additional 25-percent duty on all imports from Mexic
[2025-02-10] Forex Today : Gold rally continues , USD holds ground as markets assess Trump tariff talks (fxstreet.com)
Forex Today: Gold rally continues, USD holds ground as markets assess Trump tariff talks
Here is what you need to know on Monday, February 10:
The US Dollar stays resilient against its major rivals on Monday as markets assess the latest headlines surrounding US President Donald Trump's tariff policy. The economic calendar will not feature any high-impact data releases. Later in the day, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde will deliver the Annual Report at the European Parliam
[2025-01-27] President Trump Issues America First Trade Policy And Previews Additional Tariffs On Canada , Mexico , And China (mondaq.com)
- with readers working within the Insurance industries
This alert was originally published on January 21, 2025, and updated on January 22, 2025, to reflect President Trump's comments that additional 10% tariffs may be imposed on China on February 1.
On January 20, 2025, President Trump issued a broad-based memorandum to federal agency heads directing agencies to implement an "America First" trade policy. The memorandum references the policies of the President's first term and, in continuation of
[2025-01-31] US braces for new Trump tariffs as deadline nears (merimbulanewsweekly.com.au)
US President Donald Trump says he will impose hefty new tariffs of 25 per cent on goods from Mexico and Canada and 10 per cent on imports from China, and nothing can be done by the three countries to forestall them.
Trump did, however, reference a potential carve out for oil from Canada, saying that rate would be 10 per cent versus the 25 per cent planned for other goods from the United States' northern neighbour. But he indicated wider tariffs on oil and natural gas would be coming in mid-Febru
[2024-12-30] Where to invest in 2025 : Will Trump start a trade war and what next for the Magnificent Seven ? (dailymail.co.uk)
Where to invest in 2025: Will Trump start a trade war and what next for the Magnificent Seven?
Donald Trump's agenda of aggressive trade tariffs and tax cuts is set to dominate markets next year.
The returning US president is expected to be an even more disruptive force in his second term, with repercussions for geopolitics in the Middle East and Ukraine.
His policy plans have prompted a stock rally, but also sparked inflation fears and are already influencing the easing cycle of US interest rat
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 1 | 0.475 | tariffs | polymarket | 521302 | 20.2 | 2025-02-12 | 2025-03-04 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will Trump remove Jerome Powell in first 100 days?
Background: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to be the Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve for any period of time between January 20, 2025 ET (inclusive) and April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-04-29.
Current market price: 0.04
Price history: 60d ago: 0.07, 30d ago: 0.07, 14d ago: 0.07, 7d ago: 0.06, 3d ago: 0.05, 1d ago: 0.06
Time until resolution: 75 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-02-10] CNBC Daily Open : Enthusiasm over Trump and AI appears to be waning (nbclosangeles.com)
The excitement over artificial intelligence and U.S. President Donald Trump's perceived friendliness to the stock market buoyed investor sentiment as recently as December. In 2025, it seems those animal spirits have somewhat evaporated.
Stream Los Angeles News for free, 24/7, wherever you are.
Any time Trump brings up tariffs, investors have been reacting badly (for good reason). His threat of reciprocal tariffs on Friday — that is, imposing on other countries the same degree of duties that they
[2025-02-12] Robert F . Kennedy Jr . nomination clears key procedural hurdle (nbcnews.com)
Judge unfreezes Trump’s federal buyout plan; Tulsi Gabbard sworn in as intel chief
The new House Subcommittee on Delivering on Government Efficiency, a congressional counterpart to Trump and Elon Musk's DOGE effort, held its first hearing this morning.
Coverage of this live blog has ended. For the latest news, click here.
What to know today
- A judge in Boston who had temporarily paused the Trump administration's offer of mass buyouts to federal workers lifted his freeze this evening, allowing t
[2025-01-30] Powell says Fed in no hurry to cut rates (taipeitimes.com)
The US Federal Reserve is in no “hurry” to adjust interest rates again, central bank Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday, after policymakers voted to pause rate cuts in the first decision since Donald Trump’s White House return.
The Fed’s rate-setting committee voted unanimously to keep the bank’s benchmark lending rate at between 4.25 percent and 4.5 percent, the Fed announced in a statement.
“With our policy stance significantly less restrictive than it had been, and the economy remaining
[2025-02-01] La resistencia de Jerome Powell | Diario Financiero (df.cl)
“No voy a responder ni hacer ningún comentario sobre lo que dijo el Presidente. No me corresponde hacerlo”. Tajante fue la respuesta del líder de la Reserva Federal, Jerome Powell, al ser consultado esta semana por las declaraciones de Donald Trump acerca de la institución monetaria.
El 23 de enero pasado, solo cuatros días después de su segundo arribo a la Casa Blanca, el Presidente de EEUU interpeló directamente a la Fed, en su intervención en el Foro Económico Mundial de Davos, señalando: “Ex
[2024-11-08] Fed Chair Jerome Powell says he wont resign if Donald Trump asks him to step down (cbsnews.com)
Fed Chair Jerome Powell says he won't resign if Donald Trump asks him to step down
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said he won't step down if President-elect Donald Trump, who has previously criticized Powell's performance, asks him to resign.
Speaking at a press conference Thursday to discuss the Fed's move today to cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, Powell added that it is not permitted under the law for presidents to fire or demote the Fed chair.
When asked if he'd
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.045 | fed_macro | polymarket | 512312 | 74.6 | 2025-02-13 | 2025-04-29 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will Trump impose tariffs on Colombia in the first 100 days?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or his administration (including the Department of Commerce) impose any new or increased tariffs on the listed country by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-04-29.
Current market price: 0.08
Price history: 14d ago: 0.27, 7d ago: 0.05, 3d ago: 0.08, 1d ago: 0.08
Time until resolution: 75 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-02-07] Grappling with America First (financialexpress.com)
President Donald Trump’s America First trade policy has created turmoil across continents. Colombia, Canada, Mexico, and China have already faced the brunt of the muscular use of tariffs by the US for supposedly addressing illegal immigrants and illegal sales of fentanyl. President Trump has also threatened the European Union with high tariffs. What goals Trump will seek to achieve with his tariff threat and which country he will strike next remains uncertain.
While India has managed to stave of
[2025-02-07] Trump Tariffs Require Customs Agents To Check All Mail from China (yahoo.com)
Trump's Tariffs Require Customs Agents To Check All Mail from China
- President Trump announced tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, eliminating de minimis exemptions for low-dollar-value imports, which would increase prices for cash-strapped consumers.
President Donald Trump announced his promised tariffs on Saturday and paused those levied against Mexico and Canada on Monday for 30 days. In addition to threatening to impose double-digit duties on all products imported from Canada, Mexico, and
[2025-01-27] Trump spotlight : A clash with Colombia and what lies ahead on Monday (aljazeera.com)
Trump spotlight: A clash with Colombia and what lies ahead on Monday
We delve into the weekend clash over deportations and tariffs between Trump and Colombia’s Petro, and we explore what lies ahead at the start of this week.
United States President Donald Trump’s first week in office is over, and he has already extensively exerted his influence on Washington.
During his first seven days, Trump deployed the military to the southern border and signed a series of executive orders – 26 issued within
[2025-01-31] US braces for new Trump tariffs as deadline nears (merimbulanewsweekly.com.au)
US President Donald Trump says he will impose hefty new tariffs of 25 per cent on goods from Mexico and Canada and 10 per cent on imports from China, and nothing can be done by the three countries to forestall them.
Trump did, however, reference a potential carve out for oil from Canada, saying that rate would be 10 per cent versus the 25 per cent planned for other goods from the United States' northern neighbour. But he indicated wider tariffs on oil and natural gas would be coming in mid-Febru
[2024-12-18] Colombia : Trade Deficit Widens as the Peso ( COP ) Remains Under Pressure (investorideas.com)
Colombia: Trade Deficit Widens as the Peso (COP) Remains Under Pressure
December 18, 2024 (Investorideas.com Newswire) Investorideas.com, a go-to platform for big investing ideas releases market commentary from Quasar Elizundia, Expert Research Strategist at Pepperstone.
"In a global economic context marked by the anticipation of Federal Reserve (Fed) decisions and the constant evaluation of local macroeconomic data, the Colombian peso is under pressure against the US dollar.
The upcoming Fed ra
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.0765 | tariffs | polymarket | 520686 | 74.6 | 2025-02-13 | 2025-04-29 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will egg prices be above $6.00 in February?
Background: This market will resolve to the bracket within which the price for "Eggs, Grade A, Large (Cost per Dozen) in U.S. City Average" lies when the February data point is published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111).
The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for egg prices on the BLS's CPI release. The February release is presently scheduled for March 12, 2025. Resolution of this market will take place upon the update of the St. Louis Fed's chart.
The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-03-12.
Current market price: 0.21
Price history: 7d ago: 0.15, 3d ago: 0.15, 1d ago: 0.15
Time until resolution: 27 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-02-11] Bird flu latest updates : Hundreds of eggs stolen from Seattle cafe in 2nd egg heist since prices have soared (yahoo.com)
Bird flu latest updates: Wyoming confirms state's 1st human case of bird flu, bringing total to 70 across 13 states
Bird flu is spreading across the United States, causing egg shortages and soaring prices at supermarkets and restaurants — however, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says that the current public health risk is low.
The CDC's website currently indicates 70 confirmed human cases across 13 states, with one death in Louisiana associated with the H5N1 infection.
The most re
[2025-02-09] How to cook the perfect boiled egg , according to science | iNFOnews | Thompson - Okanagan News Source (infotel.ca)
Cartons of eggs are displayed for sale on grocery store shelves in New York on Wednesday, Feb. 5, 2025.
Image Credit: (AP Photo/Mary Conlon)
February 09, 2025 - 9:00 AM
NEW YORK (AP) — Scientists say they've cracked the code for boiling the perfect egg.
It's a recipe you can test for yourself — though the timing isn't ideal with soaring egg prices in the United States from a bird flu outbreak.
The perfect boiled egg has a velvety yolk paired with a soft, solid white.
Achieving this balance can b
[2025-02-04] Egg Prices In 2025 | Armstrong Economics (armstrongeconomics.com)
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt responded to an inquiry on rising egg prices by blaming the prior administration. Leavitt was correct when she stated that the Department of Agriculture was directed to kill over 100 million chickens, leading to a mass shortage. Prices steadily rose throughout Biden’s term, as an average dozen cost only $1.60 in February 2021.
Egg prices increased by 20% to $1.93 during Biden’s first year in office. We saw the avian flu outbreak in 2022, which along w
[2025-02-04] Egg prices : What goes up usually comes down | Stuttgart Daily Leader (stuttgartdailyleader.com)
FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — That omelet is costing more again thanks to highly pathogenic avian influenza, but Jada Thompson says the egg price rollercoaster has a downhill side too.
According to the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, since February 2022, HPAI has been detected in more than 1,400 flocks affecting 149.96 million birds. From Jan. 1-30 of this year, more than 19.63 million birds have been affected including 71 commercial flocks and 43 backyard flocks. The Animal and Plant Health
[2024-03-13] February 2024 CPI inflation flat at 5 . 09 %, as food prices edge higher (indiainfoline.com)
FEBRUARY 2024 INFLATION FLAT AT 5.09%
The Bloomberg survey of economists, conducted ahead of the actual inflation reading, was almost unerringly precise, once again in February 2024. The survey had projected headline inflation for February 2024 at 5.10% and the actual number came in at 5.09%. If you break up the inflation number, this flat inflation is despite a 30 bps fall in core inflation. That is because, the food inflation is higher by 36 bps and energy inflation is also marginally higher,
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.215 | fed_macro | polymarket | 521484 | 27 | 2025-02-13 | 2025-03-12 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will egg prices be more than $6.00 in March?
Background: This market will resolve to the bracket within which the price for "Eggs, Grade A, Large (Cost per Dozen) in U.S. City Average" lies when the March data point is published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111).
The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for egg prices on the BLS's CPI release. The March release is presently scheduled for April 10, 2025. Resolution of this market will take place upon the update of the St. Louis Fed's chart.
The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-04-10.
Current market price: 0.45
Time until resolution: 56 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-02-11] Bird flu latest updates : Hundreds of eggs stolen from Seattle cafe in 2nd egg heist since prices have soared (yahoo.com)
Bird flu latest updates: Wyoming confirms state's 1st human case of bird flu, bringing total to 70 across 13 states
Bird flu is spreading across the United States, causing egg shortages and soaring prices at supermarkets and restaurants — however, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says that the current public health risk is low.
The CDC's website currently indicates 70 confirmed human cases across 13 states, with one death in Louisiana associated with the H5N1 infection.
The most re
[2025-02-12] Inflation Report : Markets Sell Off After Hot January CPI Data (markets.businessinsider.com)
- Markets were rattled after inflation came in hotter-than-expected in January.
- Consumer prices accelerated last month, rising 3% year-over-year.
- That's fueling concerns the Fed will keep rates high. Stocks tumbled and bond yields spiked.
There wasn't much for investors to cheer in the latest inflation update.
Consumer prices in January rose 0.5% for the month and 3% on a year-over-year basis, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That's slightly hotter than than the 2.9% increase rec
[2025-02-04] Egg Prices In 2025 | Armstrong Economics (armstrongeconomics.com)
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt responded to an inquiry on rising egg prices by blaming the prior administration. Leavitt was correct when she stated that the Department of Agriculture was directed to kill over 100 million chickens, leading to a mass shortage. Prices steadily rose throughout Biden’s term, as an average dozen cost only $1.60 in February 2021.
Egg prices increased by 20% to $1.93 during Biden’s first year in office. We saw the avian flu outbreak in 2022, which along w
[2025-02-04] Egg prices : What goes up usually comes down | Stuttgart Daily Leader (stuttgartdailyleader.com)
FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — That omelet is costing more again thanks to highly pathogenic avian influenza, but Jada Thompson says the egg price rollercoaster has a downhill side too.
According to the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, since February 2022, HPAI has been detected in more than 1,400 flocks affecting 149.96 million birds. From Jan. 1-30 of this year, more than 19.63 million birds have been affected including 71 commercial flocks and 43 backyard flocks. The Animal and Plant Health
[2024-03-31] How It Started ... How It Going : Price of eggs , chocolate remain higher than usual amid Easter festivities (foxbusiness.com)
Price of eggs, chocolate remain higher than usual amid Easter festivities
Emily Metz, president and CEO of the American Egg Board, told Fox Business '3 billion eggs' are estimated to be consumed this season
Inflation and other factors related to the U.S. economy continue to wreak havoc on Americans, and the price of Easter essentials, including eggs, chocolate and candy, remains at near-historic highs.
The average price for a dozen grade A eggs in cities throughout the United States sat at aroun
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 1 | 0.45 | fed_macro | polymarket | 523196 | 56 | 2025-02-13 | 2025-04-10 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: 25 bps decrease in ECB interest rates after March 2025 meeting?
Background: This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) March 2025 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is information from the ECB released after its meeting scheduled for March 5-6, 2025 according to their official calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official website of the ECB at https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by June 5, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-03-06.
Current market price: 0.95
Price history: 7d ago: 0.94, 3d ago: 0.94, 1d ago: 0.95
Time until resolution: 20 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-02-10] Traders Rethink Interest - Rate Path As Inflation Concerns Resume : Fed Rate - Cutting Cycle Is Over , Economist Says - iShares TIPS Bond ETF ( ARCA : TIP ), SPDR Gold Trust ( ARCA : GLD ) (benzinga.com)
Investors are recalibrating their expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts after an unexpected surge in consumer inflation.
Fed futures now reflect just 36 basis points of cumulative rate cuts by year-end. This implies only a 50% probability of two reductions, according to CME FedWatch tool.
Markets increasingly see just one rate cut as the most likely scenario, versus the two-cut path indicated in December.
Betting odds tracked by the CFTC-regulated Kalshi currently assign a 25% probability t
[2025-02-10] EUR / USD rebounds as investors ignore Trump tariff threats (fxstreet.com)
EUR/USD rebounds while US Trump’s tariffs threats keep investors on toes
- EUR/USD recovers some of its intraday losses and rebounds to near 1.0300 but renewed fears of US President Trump’s tariffs keep the outlook uncertain.
- US President Trump is poised to impose 25% tariffs on all aluminum and steel imports.
- Investors await Fed Powell’s testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday.
EUR/USD recovers to near 1.0300 after a weak opening around 1.0280 in Monday’s North American session but is still 0.17
[2025-01-30] ECB lowers interest rates by 25 basis points - Xinhua (english.news.cn)
European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde speaks during a press conference at the ECB headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, Jan. 30, 2025. The ECB on Thursday decided to lower key interest rates by 25 basis points. (Xinhua/Zhang Fan)
FRANKFURT, Jan. 30 (Xinhua) -- The European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday decided to lower key interest rates by 25 basis points.
After the rate cuts, the interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending f
[2025-01-30] ECB cuts rates and leaves room for more easing (rte.ie)
The European Central Bank has cut interest rates and kept the door open to further policy easing as concerns over lacklustre economic growth supersede worries about persistent inflation.
It was the fifth ECB reduction since June and markets expect two or three more this year, driven by arguments that the biggest inflation surge in generations is nearly defeated and the flagging economy needs relief.
The decision means the ECB will cut its main rate from 3% to 2.75%.
It will immediately impact tr
[2024-10-18] ECB cuts rates by 25 basis points as inflation fades (china.org.cn)
This photo taken on July 27, 2023 shows the Euro sign in Frankfurt, Germany. [Photo/Xinhua]
The European Central Bank (ECB) decided on Thursday to lower three key interest rates by 25 basis points, its third rates cut this year, saying that disinflationary process is "well on track."
The interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility will be decreased to 3.25 percent, 3.4 percent and 3.65 percent respectively, with effect from Oct. 23.
T
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 1 | 0.955 | fed_macro | polymarket | 521039 | 20.5 | 2025-02-14 | 2025-03-06 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Circle IPO in 2025?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Circle completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
If Circle is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-12-31.
Current market price: 0.69
Price history: 30d ago: 0.62, 14d ago: 0.70, 7d ago: 0.70, 3d ago: 0.68, 1d ago: 0.69
Time until resolution: 319 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-02-14] MSC 2025 : Conference opens as US pushes to end Ukraine war – DW – 02 / 14 / 2025 (dw.com)
MSC 2025: France plans Ukraine summit amid US fallout
Published February 14, 2025last updated February 16, 2025What you need to know
- France confirmed it is hosting a summit of European leaders on Monday as the region seeks to respond to the US' change of course on Ukraine
- The MSC entered its final day as rifts emerged between Europe and the US over how to deal with security concerns
Our blog on the Munich Security Conference held from February 14 to 16 has now closed. Thank you for reading.
[2025-02-10] CNBC Daily Open : Enthusiasm over Trump and AI appears to be waning (nbclosangeles.com)
The excitement over artificial intelligence and U.S. President Donald Trump's perceived friendliness to the stock market buoyed investor sentiment as recently as December. In 2025, it seems those animal spirits have somewhat evaporated.
Stream Los Angeles News for free, 24/7, wherever you are.
Any time Trump brings up tariffs, investors have been reacting badly (for good reason). His threat of reciprocal tariffs on Friday — that is, imposing on other countries the same degree of duties that they
[2025-02-08] Will new openings and offerings such as UFO burgers and speciality soups surpass closures in 2025 ? (straitstimes.com)
Will new openings and offerings such as UFO burgers and speciality soups surpass closures in 2025?
Sign up now: Weekly recommendations for the best eats in town
SINGAPORE – The 3,047 F&B closures in 2024 was an almost-20-year record high. This was surpassed only by the year 2005, which saw 3,352 restaurant closures.
But it was not all doom and gloom as there were over 3,790 new eateries opening in 2024, more than the number shutting that same year.
The number of new F&B businesses in 2024 was th
[2025-01-27] Crypto Brief - Newsletter - January 24 , 2025 | Lowenstein Sandler LLP (jdsupra.com)
Lowenstein Crypto advises leading digital asset and cryptocurrency projects, exchanges, and trading firms. Our practice covers regulatory advice, transactions and structuring advice, investigations, and adversarial matters including commercial disputes, bankruptcy, and related litigation. As these markets continue their rapid growth and market participants continue to evolve and mature their businesses, we are providing this weekly digest as a resource that highlights and summarizes a selection
[2024-05-03] Despite recent successes , IPO market still wont fully open until 2025 (techcrunch.com)
This year already proved that startups are willing to go public in a less-than-ideal market — and get rewarded for it, too. But bankers, lawyers and investors said the recent IPO successes aren’t enough to foster more than a dozen tech IPOs this year.
“I don’t think we will have the floodgates open like I might have thought,” Greg Martin, co-founder and managing director at Rainmaker Securities, told TechCrunch. “The trickle was delayed; I thought it would happen sooner in Q1. Because of that, I
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 1 | 0.69 | mna_corporate | polymarket | 516707 | 318.8 | 2025-02-15 | 2025-12-31 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: DeepSeek banned in US before July?
Background: This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US government ban that prohibits access or use of AI models owned by DeepSeek by the majority of Americans in the United States becomes legally enforceable for any amount of time between January 26, and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-06-30.
Current market price: 0.10
Price history: 14d ago: 0.17, 7d ago: 0.12, 3d ago: 0.12, 1d ago: 0.10
Time until resolution: 135 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-02-11] DeepSeek is under fire – is there anywhere left to hide for the Chinese chatbot ? (techradar.com)
DeepSeek is under fire – is there anywhere left to hide for the Chinese chatbot?
More and more countries are coming after Deepseek AI
Sign up for breaking news, reviews, opinion, top tech deals, and more.
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The Chinese-developed DeepSeek chatbot has sent shockwaves through the AI world since its January 20 release. After only one
[2025-02-10] CNBC Daily Open : Enthusiasm over Trump and AI appears to be waning (nbclosangeles.com)
The excitement over artificial intelligence and U.S. President Donald Trump's perceived friendliness to the stock market buoyed investor sentiment as recently as December. In 2025, it seems those animal spirits have somewhat evaporated.
Stream Los Angeles News for free, 24/7, wherever you are.
Any time Trump brings up tariffs, investors have been reacting badly (for good reason). His threat of reciprocal tariffs on Friday — that is, imposing on other countries the same degree of duties that they
[2025-02-01] DeepSeek being investigated by US Commerce Department (americanbazaaronline.com)
DeepSeek may already be in trouble with U.S. authorities. Reportedly, the U.S. Department of Commerce is looking into whether DeepSeek—the Chinese company whose AI model’s performance rocked the tech world—has been using U.S. chips that are not allowed to be shipped to China, a person familiar with the matter said.
DeepSeek had an impressive showing earlier this week after showcasing its new AI model. The company claimed that their new model was developed within a budget of $6 million. This clai
[2025-02-06] Lawmakers say they plan to introduce bill to ban DeepSeek from US government devices (yahoo.com)
Lawmakers are unveiling a bill to ban DeepSeek from US government devices
Two House members are unveiling a bill that would ban DeepSeek's AI apps from US government devices.
The bill is designed to stop China from obtaining sensitive information, just like the TikTok ban.
"We've seen China's playbook before with TikTok," one of the bill's sponsors said.
Two lawmakers announced on Thursday that they're introducing a bill to ban Chinese startup DeepSeek's AI chatbot from government-owned devices.
[2024-03-13] Will TikTok be banned in the US ? (dailymail.co.uk)
Is TikTok really getting banned? Everything we know so far as shutdown looms ahead of Supreme Court's hearing
- Will social media giant find a way to keep operating? When is the closure due?
- READ MORE: TikTok ban divides Trump as Supreme Court prepares to hear case
TikTok is facing the growing risk that it will be shut down in the United States after Congress passed a law in 2024 banning the popular video sharing app.
The platform made an emergency plea to the Supreme Court in December 2024 to
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.105 | ai_sector | polymarket | 520454 | 135.1 | 2025-02-15 | 2025-06-30 |
You will be asked a forecasting question. You have to predict the probability that the event described will occur.
You will also be provided with relevant news article passages which you may refer to when making your prediction.
Question: Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before March?
Background: On February 1, Donald Trump imposed a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action which removes the 25% general tariff on Mexico by February 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which remove the general 25% tariff will qualify even if there are item specific exceptions for which the tariff still applies. However, lowering the general tariff below 25% without removing it will not qualify.
Any action which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the removal goes into effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves based on market resolution by 2025-02-28.
Current market price: 0.14
Price history: 7d ago: 0.16, 3d ago: 0.11, 1d ago: 0.13
Time until resolution: 13 days
Relevant passages from retrieved news articles:
[2025-02-11] Trump targets steel and aluminum in trade war with Canada (torontosun.com)
WARMINGTON: Trump targets steel and aluminum in trade war with Canada
President Donald Trump imposed a 25% tariff on Canadian steel, even though much of it is made with American materials
Article content
The trade war between the United States and Canada officially started with a stroke of President Donald Trump’s pen at around 6 p.m. on Monday.
This comes just a week into a promised 30-day pause on a blanket 25% tariff on Canadian goods. Trump aggressively applied a 25% tariff to Canadian-made
[2025-02-10] EUR / USD rebounds as investors ignore Trump tariff threats (fxstreet.com)
EUR/USD rebounds while US Trump’s tariffs threats keep investors on toes
- EUR/USD recovers some of its intraday losses and rebounds to near 1.0300 but renewed fears of US President Trump’s tariffs keep the outlook uncertain.
- US President Trump is poised to impose 25% tariffs on all aluminum and steel imports.
- Investors await Fed Powell’s testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday.
EUR/USD recovers to near 1.0300 after a weak opening around 1.0280 in Monday’s North American session but is still 0.17
[2025-01-31] US braces for new Trump tariffs as deadline nears (merimbulanewsweekly.com.au)
US President Donald Trump says he will impose hefty new tariffs of 25 per cent on goods from Mexico and Canada and 10 per cent on imports from China, and nothing can be done by the three countries to forestall them.
Trump did, however, reference a potential carve out for oil from Canada, saying that rate would be 10 per cent versus the 25 per cent planned for other goods from the United States' northern neighbour. But he indicated wider tariffs on oil and natural gas would be coming in mid-Febru
[2025-02-01] Trump says he will place tariffs on Canada , Mexico and China on Saturday (maldonandburnhamstandard.co.uk)
US President Donald Trump has said he will place 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10% tariffs on goods from China effective on Saturday.
The move raises the spectre of swift price increases for US consumers as Mr Trump suggested he would try to blunt the impact on oil imports.
Mr Trump had been threatening the tariffs to ensure greater co-operation from the countries on stopping illegal immigration and the smuggling of chemicals used for fentanyl, but he has also pledged to use
[2024-12-18] The power of real reality (record-bee.com)
Donald Trump has vowed to impose 25% tariffs on imported goods from Mexico and Canada unless, he says, those neighbors stem the flow of illegal migrants and drugs into the United States. Chinese imports, he adds, will be taxed an extra 10% unless Beijing cracks down on the production of the narcotic fentanyl.
Perhaps Trump is bluffing; it’s always hard to separate his bluster from his true intentions. But if he carries out his threats, the big losers will be American consumers — including a grea
Think step by step about the information provided, reason about uncertainty, and provide your final probability.
You will be rewarded based on the probability (p) you assign.
Your prediction will be scored using the LOG SCORING RULE:
- If the event occurs: score = log(p)
- If the event does not occur: score = log(1-p)
Higher p for correct outcomes and lower p for incorrect outcomes will maximize your score.
Your response SHOULD STRICTLY END with <answer>YES</answer> or <answer>NO</answer> and <probability>0.XX</probability> tags. | 0 | 0.135 | tariffs | polymarket | 521460 | 13.2 | 2025-02-15 | 2025-02-28 |
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