Datasets:

electricsheepafrica
/

africa-synth-demographics-demographic-projections-all

record_id stringlengths 16 16	country stringclasses 20 values	year int64 2.02k 2.05k	scenario stringclasses 3 values	total_population_millions float64 12.8 380	urban_population_pct float64 16.5 95	fertility_rate float64 1.65 7.12	mortality_rate float64 3.7 11.6	life_expectancy float64 53.6 77.1	dependency_ratio float64 64.7 112	youth_pct float64 33.3 50.4	working_age_pct float64 47.2 60.8	elderly_pct float64 2 6.1	net_migration_rate float64 -1.11 0.66	population_growth_rate float64 -0.5 5	median_age float64 14.6 30.3	gdp_per_capita_usd_ppp float64 986 18k	urbanization_rate_annual float64 -0.13 6
878e4fe904589e55	Nigeria	2,020	baseline	206.95	51.6	5.2	11	55.1	87.3	44.2	53.3	2.5	-0.02	0.51	18.4	4,942	-0.06
8404429919622aa5	Nigeria	2,021	baseline	211.38	52.6	5.09	11	55.5	86.9	43.8	53.5	2.7	-0.1	2.59	18.4	5,182	1.19
022755439b3b026d	Nigeria	2,022	baseline	220.6	53.4	4.92	10.4	55.7	85.9	42.9	54.3	2.8	-0.3	3.6	18.8	5,383	1.26
6a378f7a58c77392	Nigeria	2,023	baseline	225.89	53.8	5.01	10.8	55.8	83.3	42.9	54.4	2.7	-0.26	3.13	19.3	5,302	1.14
3c73d1057022307a	Nigeria	2,024	baseline	230.33	54.8	5	10.2	56.4	84	43.1	54.1	2.8	-0.37	2.83	19.1	5,501	1.33
252cf6a702db8e3a	Nigeria	2,025	baseline	235.34	55.2	5.02	10.5	56.1	86.3	43.1	54	2.9	-0.47	2.7	19.1	5,685	1.19
2e913df0d34facfc	Nigeria	2,026	baseline	240.65	56	4.89	9.9	56.9	87.2	42.9	54.2	2.9	-0.12	2.59	19	5,631	1.21
2261cb04a9ff50a7	Nigeria	2,027	baseline	245.9	56.2	4.72	10	58.4	86.8	43.5	53.8	2.7	-0.02	2.51	20.1	6,071	1.03
8144cb624cc22ebc	Nigeria	2,028	baseline	250.48	57.5	4.79	10.3	57	84.2	43	54.3	2.7	-0.46	2.41	19.7	6,238	1.19
0f62636b654447d1	Nigeria	2,029	baseline	259.13	58	4.6	10.1	58	83.7	42.7	54.2	3.1	-0.45	2.58	20.7	6,188	1.29
eb02e5737847d60e	Nigeria	2,030	baseline	260.59	58.6	4.5	9.8	58.8	85.5	42.9	54	3.1	-0.24	2.49	21	6,210	1.23
1631ddcfd7e690a4	Nigeria	2,031	baseline	267.42	59.4	4.51	9.9	58.9	84.9	42.8	54	3.2	-0.5	2.45	21.1	6,447	1.2
ed8e389a410abe93	Nigeria	2,032	baseline	277.12	60.1	4.32	9.7	59.2	86.8	43.3	53.7	3	-0.21	2.48	21.4	6,729	1.22
69df4471031e81aa	Nigeria	2,033	baseline	277.32	60.8	4.37	9.3	60	85.2	43.1	53.9	3	-0.08	2.3	21.9	6,902	1.21
c01a98f49831d583	Nigeria	2,034	baseline	287.76	61.3	4.19	9.5	60	85.4	42.8	54.1	3.1	-0.28	2.39	22.3	6,947	1.19
2dba61a1232d745d	Nigeria	2,035	baseline	290.68	62.2	4.29	9.6	60.2	84.6	42.7	54	3.3	-0.07	2.4	21.8	7,191	1.23
c09fb2edf3d19a6d	Nigeria	2,036	baseline	298.36	63.1	4.13	9.8	60.3	85.1	42.9	53.9	3.2	-0.11	2.42	22.6	7,179	1.17
73558be7e2e9ea1a	Nigeria	2,037	baseline	302.88	63.6	4.05	9.3	60.5	85.4	42.2	54.4	3.4	-0.19	2.38	23.5	7,339	1.19
0df8e28e56b32bec	Nigeria	2,038	baseline	309.51	64.4	3.97	8.8	61.6	84	42.5	54.2	3.3	-0.15	2.31	23.2	7,488	1.2
938202015f9ea57e	Nigeria	2,039	baseline	316.71	65.4	3.96	9.3	61.7	82.2	42	54.7	3.3	-0.28	2.31	23.6	7,618	1.17
41432997503020ab	Nigeria	2,040	baseline	322.37	65.8	3.93	8.6	62	85.4	42.6	53.9	3.5	-0.16	2.22	23.6	7,862	1.18
db5365a61553dbd3	Nigeria	2,041	baseline	325.89	67	3.68	8.8	62.8	82.5	42.5	54.1	3.4	-0.22	2.24	23.3	8,025	1.19
90450dead1467dc9	Nigeria	2,042	baseline	339.06	67.7	3.68	9.1	62.6	85.1	42.6	54.3	3.1	-0.35	2.2	24.1	8,080	1.16
6bc20375e1420331	Nigeria	2,043	baseline	337.35	68.1	3.62	9.1	63.6	83.7	42.1	54.5	3.4	-0.16	2.21	24.2	8,592	1.2
ab9bcc5794a1a3c9	Nigeria	2,044	baseline	339.9	69.3	3.48	8.6	63.6	83.8	41.8	54.4	3.8	-0.5	2.06	24.3	8,625	1.16
d9bb3f3cbbbe5940	Nigeria	2,045	baseline	350.57	70.1	3.39	9	64.3	84.8	42.1	54.2	3.7	-0.04	2.15	24	8,795	1.18
c5f5d40841191aa6	Nigeria	2,046	baseline	356.18	70.9	3.51	8.2	64.5	85.9	42.1	54.3	3.6	-0.51	2.13	25.2	8,799	1.2
5dcb0065797e3672	Nigeria	2,047	baseline	365.37	71.5	3.25	8	64.6	84.6	42.2	54.1	3.7	-0.14	2.13	24.8	9,037	1.17
297057d1c1a32955	Nigeria	2,048	baseline	367.35	72.6	3.25	7.7	65.3	82.2	41.7	54.7	3.6	-0.17	2.03	25.3	9,212	1.35
2d903c070f1fcbb2	Nigeria	2,049	baseline	374.7	73.2	3.24	8	65.3	84.8	42.2	54.2	3.6	0.04	2.09	26.2	9,645	1.12
7eb16a5d4b5ddcac	Nigeria	2,050	baseline	380.44	74.2	3.13	7.7	66.1	82.7	42	54.5	3.5	-0.37	2.07	26.5	9,691	1.22
ce3a2c4eaa0f3be6	Nigeria	2,020	accelerated_urbanization	204.2	51.8	4.73	11.1	54.7	86.5	43.3	53.9	2.8	-0.15	-0.5	18	5,130	-0.08
9138aa7855f1e75d	Nigeria	2,021	accelerated_urbanization	213.08	52.9	4.69	10.8	55.8	89.1	43.9	53.1	3	-0.11	3.42	18.7	5,335	1.67
d27d3b165e5e8e6b	Nigeria	2,022	accelerated_urbanization	217.39	54.5	4.78	10.4	55.2	85	43.2	54	2.8	-0.19	2.76	18.5	5,481	2.4
20cf3ac9042da796	Nigeria	2,023	accelerated_urbanization	223.31	56.1	4.48	10.3	55.5	85.4	43.4	54	2.6	-0.23	2.81	19	5,694	2.51
e7aad309816a830b	Nigeria	2,024	accelerated_urbanization	225.84	57.3	4.29	10.4	56.6	85.5	43.2	54	2.8	0.04	2.29	19.1	5,917	2.48
0bd7f8d5ac63ff6c	Nigeria	2,025	accelerated_urbanization	234.76	58.4	4.43	10.5	56.8	85.4	43.3	54.1	2.6	-0.13	2.65	19.5	6,049	2.33
be22762355431395	Nigeria	2,026	accelerated_urbanization	240.3	60.1	4.25	10.2	57.4	84.5	43.1	54.2	2.7	-0.29	2.7	20.2	6,141	2.53
d6a155b3071a89ec	Nigeria	2,027	accelerated_urbanization	246.84	61.3	4.23	10.2	58.1	88.1	43.7	53.3	3	0	2.64	19.7	6,564	2.4
b3c268a6d26735ca	Nigeria	2,028	accelerated_urbanization	252.95	63.1	4.14	10.3	57.7	87.3	43.9	53.4	2.7	-0.02	2.65	19.7	6,637	2.43
a468f6d853e05179	Nigeria	2,029	accelerated_urbanization	259.64	64.3	4.14	10.3	58.6	86.9	43.4	53.5	3.1	-0.34	2.55	20.3	6,853	2.44
281fc3ce1213808f	Nigeria	2,030	accelerated_urbanization	264.35	66.1	4.05	9.5	59.4	86.5	43.1	53.9	3	-0.07	2.48	20.5	7,205	2.41
cd37a583ce0c263e	Nigeria	2,031	accelerated_urbanization	269.08	67.6	4.03	9.7	58.7	84.5	43.2	54	2.8	-0.09	2.47	21.2	7,318	2.43
7176a1057abd82ac	Nigeria	2,032	accelerated_urbanization	271.07	69.3	3.92	9.8	59.6	82.8	42.7	54.6	2.7	-0.21	2.33	21.1	7,764	2.55
178d407d7973a260	Nigeria	2,033	accelerated_urbanization	281.19	70.8	3.85	9.6	59.6	86	43.3	54.1	2.6	-0.37	2.43	22.1	8,023	2.5
6a8f989dc218d59b	Nigeria	2,034	accelerated_urbanization	283.86	72.5	3.74	9.7	59.6	86.6	43	54	3	-0.09	2.35	21.9	8,235	2.41
c93c05769cb80550	Nigeria	2,035	accelerated_urbanization	290.46	74.2	3.9	9.7	60.4	84.6	43.2	54.1	2.7	0.06	2.25	22.3	8,496	2.38
57a064b94bdda12f	Nigeria	2,036	accelerated_urbanization	298.29	75.9	3.77	9.6	61.1	84.5	42.8	54.2	3	-0.25	2.33	21.9	8,993	2.4
fd5f1af0281dde0f	Nigeria	2,037	accelerated_urbanization	304.38	77.8	3.62	9.3	61.3	82.7	42.7	54.2	3.1	-0.04	2.36	22.3	9,067	2.44
54325afd472072f4	Nigeria	2,038	accelerated_urbanization	308.68	79.9	3.59	9.3	61.3	85.7	43.1	54	2.9	-0.07	2.25	22.6	9,406	2.37
526e5046a6933cc4	Nigeria	2,039	accelerated_urbanization	315.9	81.6	3.47	9	61.7	85.9	43.1	54	2.9	-0.41	2.2	23	9,802	2.39
61b1a5d2f5d069fe	Nigeria	2,040	accelerated_urbanization	314.52	83.5	3.38	8.9	61.8	84.6	42.6	54.3	3.1	-0.37	2.15	23.2	10,125	2.42
5c86d034d088ec6c	Nigeria	2,041	accelerated_urbanization	327.57	85.5	3.28	9	63.3	85.2	43	54.4	2.6	-0.22	2.22	23.7	10,575	2.36
f706098085474b7e	Nigeria	2,042	accelerated_urbanization	336	87.7	3.25	8.9	63.4	84	42.6	54.3	3.1	-0.09	2.23	24	10,976	2.32
d841a1b106315dbb	Nigeria	2,043	accelerated_urbanization	336.56	89.7	3.21	8.8	63.9	86.5	43	53.7	3.3	-0.36	2.1	24	11,462	2.41
8d68fc1db4b02ced	Nigeria	2,044	accelerated_urbanization	343.98	91.9	3.16	8.2	64	86.2	42.7	53.9	3.4	-0.12	2.17	24.8	11,834	2.39
1247e2f83eeaec34	Nigeria	2,045	accelerated_urbanization	352.19	94.1	3.15	8.1	65	85.1	43	54	3	-0.27	2.21	24.3	11,953	2.4
bc46d7f1e0f7b76b	Nigeria	2,046	accelerated_urbanization	357.64	95	3	8.4	64.7	84.9	42.5	54.4	3.1	-0.31	2.21	25	12,337	2.41
94172cb58be84033	Nigeria	2,047	accelerated_urbanization	362	95	2.95	8.1	65.3	83.7	42.7	54.2	3.1	-0.29	2.15	25.4	12,862	2.28
26d1db4673aaf18e	Nigeria	2,048	accelerated_urbanization	366.32	95	2.89	8.4	66.1	83.3	42.3	54.4	3.3	-0.06	2.06	25.9	13,038	2.16
445bb81280d644d1	Nigeria	2,049	accelerated_urbanization	367.38	95	2.8	8.3	65.6	83.1	42.3	54.4	3.3	-0.35	1.99	26.1	13,912	2.1
39e89866e7cf5ec5	Nigeria	2,050	accelerated_urbanization	377.62	95	2.9	7.9	65.6	84.1	42.3	54.2	3.5	-0.18	2.03	26.5	14,595	2.08
9f3fbe73985f4488	Nigeria	2,020	fertility_decline	208.8	52.2	3.95	10.7	56	83.3	43	54.2	2.8	0.02	1.41	18.8	5,056	-0.01
cbce4eb52203e665	Nigeria	2,021	fertility_decline	213.61	52.7	3.75	10.4	55.9	84.6	43.4	53.7	2.9	0.14	3.63	18.3	5,371	1.34
266744fa2d0ffdb7	Nigeria	2,022	fertility_decline	218.38	53.2	3.86	10.5	57.4	82.7	42.9	54.6	2.5	-0.35	2.94	18.6	5,500	1.2
13dd498418ad91e8	Nigeria	2,023	fertility_decline	226.35	53.8	3.88	10.7	57.1	85	43.1	54	2.9	-0.15	3.14	19.2	5,633	1.13
b03f4d8931dd72df	Nigeria	2,024	fertility_decline	227.89	54.8	3.72	10.3	57.1	86.6	42.9	53.8	3.3	-0.42	2.58	19.2	5,791	1.26
b7a686bf833deea9	Nigeria	2,025	fertility_decline	237.48	55.5	3.86	10.4	58.5	84.7	42.7	54.3	3	-0.32	2.97	20.1	6,053	1.31
c84a07ab31698a5c	Nigeria	2,026	fertility_decline	243.81	56.6	3.63	10.5	58.8	83.2	42.3	54.5	3.2	-0.07	2.84	19.8	5,950	1.46
c6ddd60423e15cf3	Nigeria	2,027	fertility_decline	246.46	57	3.65	10	59.4	85	42.5	54.2	3.3	-0.18	2.57	20.2	6,117	1.33
da15ada7024f75dd	Nigeria	2,028	fertility_decline	250.93	57.6	3.64	10.3	59	85	42.6	54.2	3.2	0.03	2.43	20.1	6,235	1.3
93ebdcd204ee5d27	Nigeria	2,029	fertility_decline	257.6	58.3	3.48	10.1	59.3	85	42.5	54	3.5	-0.7	2.55	21.3	6,432	1.37
8076c10227650cf9	Nigeria	2,030	fertility_decline	262.36	59.2	3.47	10	60.2	84.2	42.4	54.2	3.4	-0.28	2.51	21.1	6,685	1.38
b0bf89c833471ee2	Nigeria	2,031	fertility_decline	270.01	59.9	3.37	9.9	60.4	85.1	42.6	54	3.4	-0.58	2.52	21.4	7,064	1.33
0762782da0ec97db	Nigeria	2,032	fertility_decline	277.04	60.8	3.43	10	61.4	81.6	41.9	54.9	3.2	-0.08	2.49	21.9	7,080	1.3
4017b2f29fe57e86	Nigeria	2,033	fertility_decline	281.92	62	3.13	9.7	61.1	83.1	41.8	54.5	3.7	0.06	2.52	22.7	7,346	1.4
fe5baf8e5a521732	Nigeria	2,034	fertility_decline	285.03	62.4	3.11	10.1	61.7	82.4	41.9	54.6	3.5	-0.09	2.36	22.4	7,393	1.21
70b1892d7b48e2c6	Nigeria	2,035	fertility_decline	292.17	63.4	3.16	9.3	61.8	82.5	41.2	54.9	3.9	0.17	2.29	22.2	7,616	1.35
9af11b282a832d2f	Nigeria	2,036	fertility_decline	298.3	64.2	2.98	9.1	62.6	81	41.2	55	3.8	-0.31	2.41	23.4	8,044	1.34
d496e771c591dbf6	Nigeria	2,037	fertility_decline	304.83	65	2.97	9	62.6	82.4	41.5	54.7	3.8	-0.15	2.32	24	8,035	1.33
4c2b5cd74fe6520a	Nigeria	2,038	fertility_decline	306.85	65.8	3.03	8.9	62.8	80.7	41.1	55.2	3.7	-0.06	2.22	24.2	8,318	1.27
4d794764159ec87d	Nigeria	2,039	fertility_decline	314.21	66.7	2.93	8.9	64.2	81.5	41.1	55	3.9	-0.26	2.24	23.9	8,470	1.32
689936d25e3054a1	Nigeria	2,040	fertility_decline	317	67.4	2.85	8.4	64.2	79.4	40.7	55.4	3.9	-0.05	2.16	24.5	8,717	1.31
b3a011dcf3c93d8f	Nigeria	2,041	fertility_decline	330.36	68.3	2.85	8.6	64.2	83.3	41.1	54.9	4	-0.01	2.26	24.9	9,157	1.3
d00b8c71b0f199db	Nigeria	2,042	fertility_decline	332.22	69.5	2.85	9	64.6	81.1	40.4	55.3	4.3	-0.32	2.1	25	9,464	1.29
2285cc1bbc327899	Nigeria	2,043	fertility_decline	336.3	70.4	2.73	8.7	64.7	80	40.3	55.2	4.5	-0.36	2.1	25.7	9,448	1.33
29981c15d1232fcc	Nigeria	2,044	fertility_decline	344.8	71.2	2.66	8.6	65.5	82.7	40.5	55.1	4.4	-0.03	2.17	25.2	10,038	1.32
0cfc0014866c0f73	Nigeria	2,045	fertility_decline	346.68	72.1	2.73	8.3	66.6	82.4	40.6	55	4.4	-0.08	2.2	26	10,051	1.4
cd8da6fbfdcf3425	Nigeria	2,046	fertility_decline	354.27	73.2	2.56	8.6	66.5	81.8	40.2	55.2	4.6	-0.28	2.06	26.6	10,321	1.4
9e229f3e166f3ae7	Nigeria	2,047	fertility_decline	362.72	74.2	2.65	8.3	67	80.2	40.3	55.1	4.6	-0.15	2.12	26.5	10,894	1.3
57d45f5d54cdbda5	Nigeria	2,048	fertility_decline	370.27	74.9	2.23	7.9	67.6	79.3	39.5	55.7	4.8	-0.4	2.18	27.1	10,939	1.27
6d9db8f2bac5ccbc	Nigeria	2,049	fertility_decline	371.28	76.3	2.38	8.3	67.7	82	40	55	5	0.09	2.04	26.8	11,466	1.33
fd48917dd604071b	Nigeria	2,050	fertility_decline	372.12	77	2.26	7.6	68.2	76.7	39	56.5	4.5	-0.45	1.99	27.6	11,526	1.34
bc5996eb0fd65ba6	Ethiopia	2,020	baseline	113.33	21.8	4.25	7.1	67.1	78.8	40.7	56	3.3	-0.45	-0.5	19.8	2,762	-0.01
189a0b02756bf507	Ethiopia	2,021	baseline	117.88	22.1	4.07	6.9	66.5	75.3	39.9	56.8	3.3	-0.06	2.59	20.1	3,161	1.87
91b7296e8cf87214	Ethiopia	2,022	baseline	120.45	22.7	4.17	6.7	67.6	76.6	40	56.9	3.1	-0.07	2.27	19.9	2,973	2.26
da0d3e61c4c22240	Ethiopia	2,023	baseline	121.39	23.2	4.04	7.3	67.2	76.6	40	56.8	3.2	-0.1	1.83	19.6	3,156	2.23
953998f20d6128ae	Ethiopia	2,024	baseline	123.03	23.8	3.93	6.6	66.8	77.5	40.3	56.4	3.3	-0.01	1.76	20.6	2,964	2.34
c2e39f1f4db72b16	Ethiopia	2,025	baseline	127.37	24.8	3.96	6.3	67.5	78.4	40.6	56.2	3.2	-0.06	2.09	20.9	3,113	2.74
d57f678052ecd0db	Ethiopia	2,026	baseline	130.23	25.2	3.88	7.1	67.3	77.4	40.1	56.5	3.4	-0.05	2.15	21.1	3,094	2.5

End of preview. Expand in Data Studio

⚠️ Synthetic dataset — Parameterized from published SSA literature, not real observations. Not suitable for empirical analysis or policy inference.

African Demographic Projections (2020-2050)

Dataset Summary

Synthetic demographic projections for 20 Sub-Saharan African countries spanning 2020-2050 under three policy scenarios. Calibrated against UN World Population Prospects 2024 (medium variant) with stochastic perturbations to enable scenario analysis.

Scenarios

Scenario	Description
`baseline`	UN WPP 2024 medium variant projections with minor stochastic variation
`accelerated_urbanization`	Faster urbanization (+60% urban growth rate), slightly lower fertility, higher GDP growth
`fertility_decline`	Faster fertility decline, higher life expectancy, age-structure shift toward working age

Countries (20)

Nigeria, Ethiopia, DR Congo, Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Sudan, Mozambique, Ghana, Angola, Cameroon, Niger, Mali, Malawi, Zambia, Senegal, Chad, Somalia, Zimbabwe, Rwanda

Variables (17)

Variable	Description	Unit
`record_id`	SHA-256 hash (16 char) of country+year+scenario	—
`country`	Country name	—
`year`	Projection year	2020–2050
`scenario`	Projection scenario	—
`total_population_millions`	Total population	millions
`urban_population_pct`	Urban population share	%
`fertility_rate`	Total fertility rate	children/woman
`mortality_rate`	Crude death rate	per 1,000
`life_expectancy`	Life expectancy at birth	years
`dependency_ratio`	(youth + elderly) / working age × 100	%
`youth_pct`	Population aged 0–14	%
`working_age_pct`	Population aged 15–64	%
`elderly_pct`	Population aged 65+	%
`net_migration_rate`	Net migration	per 1,000
`population_growth_rate`	Annual population growth	%
`median_age`	Median age	years
`gdp_per_capita_usd_ppp`	GDP per capita (PPP)	USD
`urbanization_rate_annual`	Annual change in urban share	%

Dataset Structure

Records: 1,860 (20 countries × 3 scenarios × 31 years)
Format: CSV (data/african_demographic_projections.csv)
Seed: random.seed(42) for reproducibility

Calibration Sources

Projections are calibrated to the UN World Population Prospects 2024 Revision medium variant for baseline trajectories. Scenario deviations are modeled as proportional adjustments to urbanization, fertility, life expectancy, and GDP growth trajectories.

Key references:

UN DESA (2024). World Population Prospects 2024. https://population.un.org/wpp/
UN DESA (2018). World Urbanization Prospects 2018. https://population.un.org/wup/

Usage

from datasets import load_dataset
ds = load_dataset("electricsheepafrica/african-demographic-projections")
df = ds["train"].to_pandas()

Generation

pip install -r requirements.txt
python generate_dataset.py
python validate_dataset.py

License

CC-BY-4.0. This dataset is synthetic; the underlying calibration parameters are derived from publicly available UN statistics.

Downloads last month: 87