question stringlengths 10 193 | answer stringclasses 2 values |
|---|---|
Is Damascus going to fall before Valentine's day 2025? | YES |
Daily coinflip | YES |
Will Joe Rogan endorse Donald Trump on or before election day? | YES |
Will the Supreme Commander of the Swedish Armed Forces resign before his appointment expires in September 2024? | NO |
NFL Week 10 (Nov 10 2024): Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (home) beat the San Francisco 49ers (away)? | NO |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Oklahoma? | NO |
Will 23 and me be delisted on November 4th 2024 | NO |
If the Republican nominee wins Wisconsin, will they win the presidency (2024)? | YES |
Will Barnier still be Prime Minister of France on October 15th 2024 ? | YES |
NFL Week 6 (Oct 10): Will the Seattle Seahawks beat the San Francisco 49ers? | NO |
Will Kamala Harris win at least one state won by Donald Trump in 2020? | NO |
Will 'The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom' have outsold 'Pokémon Sword/Pokémon Shield' at any point before 2025? | NO |
2024 NCAAF 🏈 : Will Florida beat Florida State by 10+ points? | YES |
Will Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas resign or step down before the election? | NO |
On the first anniversary of October 7th attacks, will the Israel-Hamas war still be ongoing? | YES |
Will the United State elect it's first woman President in 2024 | NO |
Will the margin of victory in Wisconsin be smaller than the margin of victory in Pennsylvania? | YES |
Will automated balls and strikes (aka "robo umps") feature in an MLB regular-season game in 2023 or 2024? | NO |
Will Democrats win both houses of Congress? | NO |
Will any of the videos uploaded to Destiny's YouTube channel in Oct 2024 surpass 600k views? | YES |
Will a general European Union-Mercosur trade agreement be concluded before Dec, 31st 2024? | NO |
🇲🇽 🇺🇸 Will US Border Control detain more people trying to cross the US-Mexico border in 2024 than in 2023? | NO |
Will this market get more than 25 traders ? | YES |
MLB Postseason 2024 ⚾️ 10/8 NLDS Game 3 Phillies @ Mets: Will the Mets WIN this game? | YES |
Will Donald Trump and Joe Biden debate each other twice before the 2024 US presidential election? | NO |
Will Texas experience blackouts this Summer? | NO |
Will RFK Jr. be polling above 10% on October 1st, 2024? | NO |
Will Final Fantasy VII Rebirth win Game of the Year at the 2024 Game Awards? | NO |
Will Mitch McConnell stop being Senate Republican Leader before the end of 2026? | YES |
Will ANY 2020 red states/districts flip blue in 2024? | NO |
Will Biden's classified documents be largely forgotten on Election Day? | YES |
Will Trump get to 50% on Manifold by Halloween? | YES |
Will the 2024 Democratic Presidential nominee remain the nominee through Election Day? | YES |
Will Moana 2 gross more than Moana at the global box office? | YES |
Will Ivanka Trump release a tell-all book about Donald Trump before the 2024 U.S. Presidential election? | NO |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Nevada? | NO |
Will the winner of the electoral college also win the popular vote in 2024? | YES |
Will Tua Tagovailoa be eating Turducken after the Thanksgiving game? | NO |
Will Togashi Yoshihiro publish a new chapter of Hunter × Hunter in 2024? | YES |
Will an EAG(x) conference be held in India in 2024? | YES |
Will the PYUSD stablecoin de-peg anytime before 2025? | NO |
Will Sora be released to the general public before Jimmy Carter dies | YES |
Will Mother Nature influence the US Elections in 2024 | NO |
Picture of 2024 POTY & POTUS before EOY? | YES |
Will a federal judge rule Trump ineligible to serve as president by Election Day? | NO |
Will Manifold preserve my search filter state when hitting "back", by the election? | NO |
Will Yuki Tsunoda score higher than Daniel Ricciardo in the 2024 Formula 1 Driver World Championship? | YES |
Will CNN call the 2024 US presidential election by midnight Pacific time on Nov 5th 2024? | NO |
On election day 2024, will George Santos be more relevant than Kevin McCarthy? | YES |
[Metaculus] Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024? | NO |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Hawaii? | YES |
Will the Falcon 9 family of rockets launch to orbit (successfully) more times in 2024 than in 2023? | YES |
Will The Super Model have over 1,000 subscribers by election day? | NO |
Will Yuki Tsunoda finish the 2024 Formula 1 season with more points than Daniel Ricciardo? | YES |
Will Trump pass Harris on Manifold [>=1%, 1 day avg] | YES |
Will Bitcoin (BTC) increase by over 6% on any day in Oct 2024? | NO |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Maryland? | YES |
Will a Republican win Wisconsin for President by 2050? | YES |
🧨 Short-fuse 1 in 3 odds | NO |
Will 'The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom' have outsold 'Breath of the Wild' at any point before 2025? | NO |
[Kalshi] Will Joe Manchin have left Senate Democratic leadership on November 6th 2024? | YES |
Will Sonoma County, California, ban factory farming this November? | NO |
Will Indiana vote the same party for Senate and president in 2024? | YES |
[Subsidized] Will someone other than Biden or Trump win the 2024 US Presidential election? | NO |
NFL Week 4 (Sep 29): Will the Baltimore Ravens beat the Buffalo Bills? | YES |
Will there be a formal military coup d'etat / takeover in Pakistan in 2024? | NO |
Will there be a 5th Starship launch on or before October 15? | YES |
Was Hassan Nasrallah killed today (9/27/24)? | YES |
Will October 2024 be the hottest October on record? (resolves according to GIStemp data) | NO |
The Factorio expansion will include something like this "quality" mechanic | YES |
Will Israel invade Lebanon by the end of 2024? | YES |
⚾️ World Series Game 1 Yankees @ Dodgers: Will there be a run scored in the 1st inning? | NO |
Will Kyrsten Sinema caucus with the Senate Democrats on November 1, 2024? | YES |
Will Delegate Ibarra speak from the stand at Valia Wain's trial | NO |
Will Russia host the BRICS Summit in 2024? | YES |
Will Nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap at the end of Halloween 2024? | NO |
Will I leave Manifold if I lose the 'Apple Vision Pro Prediction Market'? | NO |
Daily coinflip | NO |
Will Elon be revealed to be funding some of the larger anon/troll accounts on X during election season? | NO |
Will there be 51 or more U.S. states by the 2024 Presidential Election? | NO |
Will Saudi Arabia king Salman live in the end of 2024? | YES |
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of Ohio? | YES |
Bitcoin above 70K on Nov 6? | YES |
Will California voters pass Proposition 36 — Drug and Theft Crime Penalties and Treatment-Mandated Felonies Initiative? | YES |
Will the amount of hate crimes in the U.S. go up in 2023? | YES |
Will global total CO2 emissions be below 40 billion tons in 2023 as estimated by Our World in Data? | NO |
Will there be another serious assassination attempt against Trump? | NO |
NFL Week 9 (Nov 3 2024): Will the Buffalo Bills (home) beat the Miami Dolphins (away)? | YES |
Does Manifold think the sweepstakes are a good idea? | YES |
Will DeepSeek release a DeepSeek V3 model by the end of Q1 2025 | YES |
Will ChatGPT get the "Monty from Hell" problem correct on Dec. 1, 2024? | YES |
Will the CoolFold Financial Portfolio outperform the S&P 500 over the next 6 months? | NO |
Will Costcos in US further devalue their hot dog and soda combo before the end of 2024? | NO |
Will I be demoted to Platinum this month? | NO |
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Fed cuts interest rates at least fifty basis points | YES |
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote but lose the EC vote, or lose the popular vote but win the EC vote? | NO |
Will Russia unilaterally reconstitute own government of Ukraine with self-appointed authorities in 2024? | NO |
Will the east coast USA port strike result in substantial additional restrictions on automation? | NO |
Will JD Vance be a guest on the Lex Fridman Podcast before election day 2024? | NO |
Will Bitcoin hit an all time high before US election winner is called? | YES |
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