p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.6581476863260904 | w6riL1iyNcODr0GMzysY | {"NO": 728.6405260427915, "YES": 38.85237067182264} | 1 | will-elrond-egld-be-listed-for-trad-fbd597351557d | 1257.521688077018 | {"NO": 0, "YES": 0} | Will Elrond EGLD be listed for trading on Coinbase by December 31st, 2022 | 1672610242539 | H3KyohhN3TYz7hczLy1XC6JRqFr1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 0, "YES": 0} | 0 | 3.921114739346234 | True | play | YES | public | 1642083428301 | Jiaobei Mandos | This market will be resolved by consulting Coinbase.com
Jan 13, 4:54pm: #Crypto #EGLD | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1672610242539 | 140 | JiaobeiMandos | 1672563728800 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzoOjPsK1K9is149xWEcETYVuD3NTR_tS5d4aQ0=s96-c | 4 | 1650314805299 | 0 | 6 | 1672563659877 | 1672563726565 | 0.97 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.735381774407677 | 8BcfZcuoHX1YZ7sG27r1 | {"NO": 3499.3746626625298, "YES": 51.01247502366867} | 1 | will-elrond-egld-be-listed-for-trad-945f0d9792522 | 7878.040475883477 | {"NO": 0, "YES": 20} | Will Elrond EGLD be listed for trading on Coinbase by June 30th, 2023 | 1688270399000 | H3KyohhN3TYz7hczLy1XC6JRqFr1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 0, "YES": 20} | 0 | 3.902391223623021 | True | play | YES | public | 1642083461597 | Jiaobei Mandos | This market will be resolved by consulting Coinbase.com
Jan 13, 4:54pm: #Crypto #EGLD | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 168.52299546352717} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1688319206949 | 200 | JiaobeiMandos | 1688244505613 | 0.3 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzoOjPsK1K9is149xWEcETYVuD3NTR_tS5d4aQ0=s96-c | 9 | 1650313816964 | 0 | 1 | 4 | [{"name": "Coinbase", "slug": "coinbase", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "9viY8H2UkL1mBhS8bAPd", "createdTime": 1686470982444}] | ["coinbase"] | 0.11982099596584267 | 1688244505393 | 1648931085894 | 0.99 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5046644928467773 | qUczwSihoTnh25hMaeaz | {"NO": 135.8960621437269, "YES": 143.90246983398134} | 1 | will-elrond-egld-be-listed-for-trad-b3e00e2944349 | 1376.9086577591975 | {"NO": 0, "YES": 0} | Will Elrond EGLD be listed for trading on Coinbase by December 31st, 2023 | 1688319222262 | H3KyohhN3TYz7hczLy1XC6JRqFr1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 0, "YES": 0} | 0 | 2.158009683701212 | True | play | YES | public | 1642083484795 | Jiaobei Mandos | This market will be resolved by consulting Coinbase.com
Jan 13, 4:54pm: #Crypto #EGLD | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1688319222262 | 140 | JiaobeiMandos | 1684899848972 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzoOjPsK1K9is149xWEcETYVuD3NTR_tS5d4aQ0=s96-c | 2 | 1650314771265 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680733560865}, {"name": "Coinbase", "slug": "coinbase", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "9viY8H2UkL1mBhS8bAPd", "createdTime": 1686470982448}] | ["ancient-markets", "coinbase"] | 1684899848803 | 0.49 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.17395704480529173 | inmWWj0gdavykcH668eg | {"NO": 59.135396604157364, "YES": 1517.4768682234946} | 0 | will-doors-of-stone-the-third-book | 1588.265413635247 | {"NO": 26.565376008689555, "YES": 0} | Will Doors of Stone, the third book of the Kingkiller Chronicle, by Patrick Rothfuss, be released in 2022? | 1672610253396 | H3KyohhN3TYz7hczLy1XC6JRqFr1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 30, "YES": 0} | 0 | 5.767891130399949 | True | play | NO | public | 1642087283952 | Jiaobei Mandos | If Doors of Stone is available for purchase and delivery (i.e. being available for pre-order only does not count) at any time in 2022, this will resolve to true.
Jan 13, 4:53pm: #books #fiction #fantasy | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 177.00810604590646, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | {"creatorFee": 3.045283549838059, "platformFee": 0.27449071604473063, "liquidityFee": 1.5298713185439592} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1672610253396 | 141.52987131854397 | JiaobeiMandos | 1672575136975 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzoOjPsK1K9is149xWEcETYVuD3NTR_tS5d4aQ0=s96-c | 14 | 1650314724772 | 0 | 16 | [{"name": "Books", "slug": "books", "userId": "QXneG5tQfdbHSlqt91Q3aauAy8S2", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU", "createdTime": 1661326790407}] | ["books"] | 1672575136818 | 1661326031573 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.25722821434486814 | RIQLFl7ly0WGoX1Njmv2 | {"NO": 58.56793756478149, "YES": 1385.8294036671466} | 0 | will-the-winds-of-winter-book-six-o | 1548.1063722126828 | {"NO": 29.601755509812023, "YES": 1} | Will "The Winds of Winter", Book Six of A Song of Fire and Ice, by George R. R. Martin, be released in 2022? | 1672610262689 | H3KyohhN3TYz7hczLy1XC6JRqFr1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 30, "YES": 1} | 0 | 3.965834546665639 | True | play | NO | public | 1642088857402 | Jiaobei Mandos | If "The Winds of Winter" is available for purchase and delivery (i.e. being available for pre-order only does not count) at any time in 2022, this will resolve to true.
Jan 13, 4:53pm: #books #fiction #fantasy | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 180.98885637847295, "YES": 142.89927750349062} | {"creatorFee": 3.353960103876931, "platformFee": 0.4821341170798316, "liquidityFee": 2.89280470247899} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1672610262689 | 142.892804702479 | JiaobeiMandos | 1672563863279 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzoOjPsK1K9is149xWEcETYVuD3NTR_tS5d4aQ0=s96-c | 21 | 1650314589566 | 0 | 22 | [{"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1659497676656}, {"name": "Books", "slug": "books", "userId": "2ekxJD8MeMfp96gghpjy3PRxjtW2", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU", "createdTime": 1669223925523}] | ["entertainment", "books"] | 1672563863135 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.15141150061429423 | GNAY9O0C2Au1RpQMTwKc | {"NO": 295.88287307400515, "YES": 21192.37482657329} | 0 | will-the-winds-of-winter-book-six-o-ff68fe236a20c | 25549.789781062445 | {"NO": 131.0865211966581, "YES": 60} | Will "The Winds of Winter", Book Six of A Song of Fire and Ice, by George R. R. Martin, be released in 2023? | 1704139502093 | H3KyohhN3TYz7hczLy1XC6JRqFr1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 134, "YES": 60} | 0 | 1.2212352987986463 | True | play | NO | public | 1642088887980 | Jiaobei Mandos | If "The Winds of Winter" is available for purchase and delivery (i.e. being available for pre-order only does not count) at any time in 2023, this will resolve to true.
Jan 13, 4:53pm: #books #fiction #fantasy | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 310.5829122246932, "YES": 237.66977446813183} | {"creatorFee": 0.7592800770111947, "platformFee": 0.0363755172925305, "liquidityFee": 0.04344437555466968} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1704139502093 | 600.0434443755546 | JiaobeiMandos | 1710206688158 | 0.1 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzoOjPsK1K9is149xWEcETYVuD3NTR_tS5d4aQ0=s96-c | 1 | 49 | 1650313874440 | 0 | 27 | [{"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e"}, {"name": "📚 Books", "slug": "books", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU"}, {"name": "A Song of Ice and Fire", "slug": "a-song-of-ice-and-fire", "groupId": "473b14db-80a1-40d2-bf58-b27aa6019ee7"}] | ["new-years-resolutions-2024", "books", "a-song-of-ice-and-fire"] | 0.12069169188441038 | 1704139493612 | 1701238929245 | 0 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5464852607709751 | tF6bsON5DjJVAa6nHlUl | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5464852607709751 | will-ontario-schools-reopen-by-janu | 10 | {"NO": 0, "YES": 10} | Will Ontario schools reopen by January 27th, 2022? | 1642481999000 | H3KyohhN3TYz7hczLy1XC6JRqFr1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 0, "YES": 10} | 0 | 4.828237724912245 | True | play | YES | public | 1642089108011 | Jiaobei Mandos | If, on January 17th, 2022, public school board schools are open for in-person learning, this will resolve to true.
Jan 13, 4:51pm: #Covid #shortterm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 155.24174696260025} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1642464949281 | 100 | JiaobeiMandos | 1642089108011 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzoOjPsK1K9is149xWEcETYVuD3NTR_tS5d4aQ0=s96-c | 1 | 1715658811955 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.838500716306393 | De3HNz2RZYfFPB35TIpR | {"NO": 1135.265070124713, "YES": 109.66743376789366} | 0.9817340847889808 | for-ar-will-passthrough-optics-domi | 4038.652321861532 | {"NO": 10, "YES": 90} | For AR, will passthrough optics dominate the consumer market (versus transparent optics) by EOY 2024 | 1735718399000 | Z4X0UCrb7BfDTfH9UfkiQU7OtOi1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 10, "YES": 90} | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1642091766194 | Gene Reddick | Measured in terms of total devices sold by any reputable source (such as https://www.statista.com/statistics/1055434/worldwide-vr-ar-device-shipments-by-product-type/).
Jan 13, 8:36am: https://www.counterpointresearch.com/xr-headset-shipments-almost-triple-yoy-q1-2021/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.006110011269982674, "month": 0.12822184426364458} | 0 | {"NO": 122.88205727444507, "YES": 273.67864366808016} | {"creatorFee": 6.867957364620481, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 100, "YES": 173.20508075688772} | 0 | 160 | GeneReddick | 1720009636632 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhDKcqyf_ZFzCSzOhd_N60-k6lM3nmDZK-BDe4acok=s96-c | 10 | 1650313856094 | 1 | 8 | [{"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680733555269}] | ["ancient-markets"] | 1720009633550 | 1719282918967 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1260390044266575 | mlDRk8C2kOYBpcqLIDki | {"NO": 90.62391787395832, "YES": 3076.9188823769937} | 0 | if-trump-announces-his-candidacy-fo | 5262.317107029019 | {"NO": 20, "YES": 1.8107301281883679} | If Trump announces his candidacy for President in 2024, will it be in an even indexed month? (i.e. February, April, June, etc). | 1683729190922 | GSBHngag3UTwsdIcS0rfnKL07qB2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 0, "YES": 0} | 0 | 5.635228703571374 | True | play | NO | public | 1642104751855 | Nathan Wei | Jan 15, 10:28pm: Semi-random market, like a coin flip but a bit more fun. Trump picks. Resolves as MKT if he does not run. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | {"creatorFee": 1.3019601433728774, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1683729190922 | 200 | nathanwei | 1690929726622 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 1650314749657 | 0 | 10 | [{"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1658529582155}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529504250}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "u... | ["2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default", "please-resolve", "donald-trump"] | 1683724658589 | 1690929723451 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.013566953940008841 | Nbp4ywnPug4VG9DHH94l | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.013566953940008841 | will-aliens-land-before-march-2022 | 12508.514002507909 | {"NO": 5658.750095189374, "YES": 210.73590230271566} | Will aliens land before March 2022? | 1646110799000 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 5684, "YES": 170} | 0 | 4.623324027140848 | True | play | NO | public | 1642110400744 | Duncn | Will aliens make physical contact, through controlled landing or crashing, on Earth or the ISS before on on the the last day of March 2022 (EST)?
#fun #longshots #shortterm #aliens | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 6028.17317821966, "YES": 706.9571466118964} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1646135314756 | 100 | Duncn | 1663800862247 | 0 | 38 | 1715658058203 | 0 | 1 | 1 | [{"name": "Aliens", "slug": "aliens", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "FvhchmbPB3fymwvEFx0G", "createdTime": 1661373407194}] | ["aliens"] | 1663800856729 | 0.013566953940008841 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.013191881709973659 | VT9dXnh7xwcjMCdyg4LW | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.013191881709973659 | will-boris-johnson-resign-before-ma | 34903.645136873456 | {"NO": 22074.019294302565, "YES": 2032.3355688239844} | Will Boris Johnson resign before March 2022? | 1646110799000 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 22250, "YES": 1769} | 0 | 4.617175436939863 | True | play | NO | public | 1642113323056 | Duncn | Will Boris resign, for any reason, before the end of February? Dying in office does not count.
#shortterm #UK #politics
Jan 15, 10:34am: #boris #borisjohnson | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 24145.499326045836, "YES": 2791.7286809709462} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1646093999213 | 100 | Duncn | 1642113323056 | 0 | 103 | 1715658246730 | 0 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529489679}] | ["politics-default"] | 1645566104097 | 0.013191881709973659 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9573765251212105 | 9m3Ctchk5DRYycTE43Ip | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9573765251212105 | tamuz-hod-will-resolve-their-10000 | 485 | {"NO": 0, "YES": 485} | Tamuz Hod will resolve their $10,000 meta-market honeslty | 1642481999000 | H3KyohhN3TYz7hczLy1XC6JRqFr1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 0, "YES": 485} | 0 | 4.6855225578803825 | True | play | YES | public | 1642115617391 | Jiaobei Mandos | Tamuz Hod has created a market on whether rhat same market will have M$ 10,000 bedlfore it closes. Here is a link to the market: https://manifold.markets/TamuzHod/will-this-market-have-over-m-10000
This market will resolve to yes if Tamuz Hod resolves their market honestly, and to no if they resolve it falsely.
For e... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 670.2424934305493} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1642272880677 | 100 | JiaobeiMandos | 1642115617391 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzoOjPsK1K9is149xWEcETYVuD3NTR_tS5d4aQ0=s96-c | 7 | 1715657680959 | 0 | 1642270563983 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7368815020087279 | 44nSoR1u80KhrXMKEZhY | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7368815020087279 | i-have-been-entrusted-with-an-ai-in | 5309.392106401827 | {"NO": 1648.6822624015604, "YES": 1917.9256311966124} | I have been entrusted with an AI in a Box. Should I let it out? | 1644901199000 | H3KyohhN3TYz7hczLy1XC6JRqFr1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1492, "YES": 1889} | 0 | 4.62830598671802 | True | play | YES | public | 1642121961932 | Jiaobei Mandos | I have been entrusted with an AI Box (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_box). The AI in the box promises that it is well-aligned and that if I let it out, it will only take actions that are disproportionately high utility.
In particular, it promises only to take actions that are 1,00 times more beneficial than harmful. ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1932.0844396776206, "YES": 3233.3241009944672} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 197.9898987322333, "YES": 28.284271247461902} | 0 | 1644978908489 | 100 | JiaobeiMandos | 1658242261897 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzoOjPsK1K9is149xWEcETYVuD3NTR_tS5d4aQ0=s96-c | 28 | 1715656962933 | 0 | [{"name": "Self-resolving", "slug": "selfresolving", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "9cUlgUS6fDN3LIyavEam", "createdTime": 1663251846451}] | ["selfresolving"] | 1658242256508 | 0.7368815020087279 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.996118000259589 | BqEkAoBv3utodUjOmP9q | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.996118000259589 | will-january-14ths-wordle-start-wit | 3495.366913122735 | {"NO": 72.63308687726476, "YES": 2588} | Will January 14th's Wordle start with a consonant? | 1642312799000 | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 10, "YES": 2588} | 0 | 4.632445168576568 | True | play | YES | public | 1642122995834 | Lars Doucet | New Wordles are posted at what looks like 6:00 AM GMT. The Wordle for today (January 13th) has already been posted. Will the word that solves the Wordle puzzle posted at 6:00 AM GMT on January 14, 2022 start with a vowel?
https://www.powerlanguage.co.uk/wordle/
#shortterm
#Gaming | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 178.23373516554295, "YES": 2855.075199252358} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 100, "YES": 173.20508075688772} | 0 | 1642204968566 | 100 | LarsDoucet | 1642122995834 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c | 15 | 1715657737552 | 0 | 1642205101941 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.08089064066485334 | BQINWjJaLWLvqMBLyqkX | {"NO": 234.881068786221, "YES": 718.5162918189619} | 0 | will-tsla-reach-15k-by-the-end-of-2 | 1342.1907674621282 | {"NO": 40, "YES": 0} | Will TSLA reach 1.5k by the end of 2022? | 1672559999000 | 1FATOHrQI7bdwaYfLBuQrYcwgIl1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 40, "YES": 0} | 0 | 4.526658002639543 | True | play | NO | public | 1642123793001 | Ethan Rendon | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 222.7105745132009, "YES": 89.44271909999159} | {"creatorFee": 0.33820047829090877, "platformFee": 0.05636674638181813, "liquidityFee": 0.33820047829090877} | {"NO": 178.88543819998318, "YES": 89.44271909999159} | 0 | 1680827420946 | 260.3382004782909 | EthanRendon | 1710451914980 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgKGi9RbHA_pWCQ1dV931ZNaMaQEHmQ4ezUzqIsbA=s96-c | 15 | 1650313840413 | 0 | 20 | 16 | [{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}, {"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm"}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF"}] | ["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "wall-street-bets", "please-resolve"] | 1672559455872 | 1680827424628 | 0.03 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.975546052566539 | 9EWjOFH6VHw7cYmKKWyX | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.975546052566539 | will-moderna-report-positive-result | 2438.4640963138054 | {"NO": 351.28902904883853, "YES": 1334.767640901598} | Will Moderna report positive results for its children's vaccine before the end of March 2022? | 1648785599000 | H3KyohhN3TYz7hczLy1XC6JRqFr1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 104, "YES": 1336} | 0 | 4.641278700795544 | True | play | YES | public | 1642124333406 | Jiaobei Mandos | On January 12th, 2022, Moderna released a statement indicating that it expects to report data on its vaccine in children ages 2-5 in March, 2022. The statement can be found here: https://investors.modernatx.com/Statements--Perspectives/Statements--Perspectives-Details/2022/Statement-on-COVID-19-Vaccine-Clinical-Studies... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 294.936977227697, "YES": 1862.8531723483522} | {"creatorFee": 14.00226679801746, "platformFee": 3.500566699504365, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 100, "YES": 173.20508075688772} | 0 | 1648818511339 | 100 | JiaobeiMandos | 1642124333406 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzoOjPsK1K9is149xWEcETYVuD3NTR_tS5d4aQ0=s96-c | 13 | 1715657666113 | 0 | 1 | 0.975546052566539 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9677909763199258 | 3lMHrNz6DesC7600rl29 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9677909763199258 | will-at-least-200-be-bet-on-yes-in | 588 | {"NO": 0, "YES": 588} | Will at least $200 be bet on 'yes' in the "Will aliens land before March 2022?" market? | 1643432399000 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 0, "YES": 588} | 0 | 4.67660269170143 | True | play | YES | public | 1642124871210 | Duncn | Why would anyone bet yes on this market?
https://manifold.markets/DuncanMasters/will-aliens-land-before-march-2022
Do they know something we don't?
#meta #fun #conspiracy | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 775.205779132225} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1642199870038 | 100 | Duncn | 1642124871210 | 0 | 2 | 1715656950949 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14934595404470408 | eFCM8TUS0xy4LUpjL1bz | {"NO": 77.19498044923483, "YES": 445.668230623212} | 0 | will-stripe-ipo-by-the-end-of-june | 665.1570219720194 | {"NO": 175, "YES": 20.921769754645254} | Will Stripe IPO by the end of June 2022? | 1656734399000 | H3KyohhN3TYz7hczLy1XC6JRqFr1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 175, "YES": 20} | 0 | 5.801678586277379 | True | play | NO | public | 1642127618599 | Jiaobei Mandos | This market will resolve to yes if shares of Stripe are available for purchase on Nasdaq, the New York Stock Exchange, or any other major stock exchange, at any time on or before June 30th, 2022.
Jan 13, 10:22pm: #stocks
Jan 13, 10:24pm: #IPO | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 365.12624799576446, "YES": 153.09105391950834} | {"creatorFee": 0.5027988690181004, "platformFee": 0.0248279903963646, "liquidityFee": 0.14896794237818758} | {"NO": 173.20508075688772, "YES": 100} | 0 | 1656764519002 | 100.14896794237819 | JiaobeiMandos | 1656694203845 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzoOjPsK1K9is149xWEcETYVuD3NTR_tS5d4aQ0=s96-c | 10 | 1650314688660 | 0 | 1 | 1656472471246 | 1656694199575 | 0.029512620058192683 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.32356935960360655 | fgqP4Sm2PU2Xm1MDdFHS | {"NO": 25.208121226069125, "YES": 2190.6094624656807} | 0 | will-stripe-ipo-by-the-end-of-septe | 3509.7293567298548 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 1} | Will Stripe IPO by the end of September 2022? | 1664683199000 | H3KyohhN3TYz7hczLy1XC6JRqFr1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 1} | 0 | 5.019522479838784 | True | play | NO | public | 1642127649934 | Jiaobei Mandos | This market will resolve to yes if shares of Stripe are available for purchase on Nasdaq, the New York Stock Exchange, or any other major stock exchange, at any time on or before September 30th, 2022.
Jan 13, 10:22pm: #stocks
Jan 13, 10:24pm: #IPO | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 206.15528128088303, "YES": 143.1817027416562} | {"creatorFee": 8.93604691519272, "platformFee": 0.2982339267584634, "liquidityFee": 1.7894035605507805} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1664715849505 | 101.78940356055075 | JiaobeiMandos | 1664680499897 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzoOjPsK1K9is149xWEcETYVuD3NTR_tS5d4aQ0=s96-c | 23 | 1650314701810 | 0 | 1 | 25 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1658529451781}] | ["technology-default"] | 1664680499782 | 1657046019789 | 0.005474388427105583 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.16389372058857443 | zFxrc3m3GKQlG3n2CCLV | {"NO": 111.46850343574808, "YES": 1070.653841638273} | 0 | will-stripe-ipo-by-the-end-of-decem | 2177.4460353479208 | {"NO": 30.379989689153234, "YES": 25} | Will Stripe IPO by the end of December 2022? | 1672610072176 | H3KyohhN3TYz7hczLy1XC6JRqFr1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 31, "YES": 25} | 0 | 3.911683820421582 | True | play | NO | public | 1642127694696 | Jiaobei Mandos | This market will resolve to yes if shares of Stripe are available for purchase on Nasdaq, the New York Stock Exchange, or any other major stock exchange, at any time on or before December 31st, 2022.
Jan 13, 10:22pm: #stocks
Jan 13, 10:24pm: #IPO | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 152.90107764847795, "YES": 204.54877068211906} | {"creatorFee": 4.898934829387499, "platformFee": 0.2901079779776407, "liquidityFee": 1.7406478678658441} | {"NO": 100, "YES": 173.20508075688772} | 0 | 1672610072176 | 221.74064786786585 | JiaobeiMandos | 1672581181766 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzoOjPsK1K9is149xWEcETYVuD3NTR_tS5d4aQ0=s96-c | 18 | 1650315038221 | 0 | 19 | 1672581181617 | 1645772393864 | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.05139487127546844 | 4xaG3yK61gpwujCrvTK4 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.05139487127546844 | will-matt-darling-win-the-2022-neol | 14413.566278060487 | {"NO": 6583.921432842229, "YES": 1356.3800728984652} | Will Matt Darling win the 2022 Neoliberal Shill Contest? | 1648871999000 | rVlDFjwBfvTuSihKD2P1S06KjRK2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 6812, "YES": 829} | 0 | 4.621243633620886 | True | play | NO | public | 1642127887580 | Matt Darling | This market will be resolved by the outcome of the 2022 annual neoliberal shill contest, run by the @ne0liberal twitter account. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 7928.357504206706, "YES": 1845.4419226444033} | {"creatorFee": 54.86194843327527, "platformFee": 13.715487108318818, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 189.73665961010275, "YES": 63.245553203367585} | 0 | 1649352009408 | 100 | MattDarling | 1680029196308 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJx9RKd8e7ZzvHhvv-xbQb-FqmNlMvQhf53ts-g1=s96-c | 37 | 1715656985999 | 0 | 1 | 1680029192723 | 0.05139487127546844 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.11208899031355435 | TvCw2E8qd7JmZsGQvqEg | {"NO": 117.40439599996509, "YES": 1592.9738728577822} | 0 | will-there-be-a-kinetic-strike-on-a | 5598.595039489531 | {"NO": 304, "YES": 56} | Will there be a kinetic strike on an Iranian Nuclear Facility? | 1672635599000 | PJPO3T2HgVNTf7QWO6AIKRWcQO42 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 304, "YES": 56} | 0 | 5.5654063983529465 | True | play | NO | public | 1642128163601 | Ezra Brodey | Will there be a kinetic strike (non cyber) in an Iranian nuclear facility by the end of 2022. Market resolves based off OSINT reporting. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 515.0728103870365, "YES": 219.7726097583591} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 186.5475810617763, "YES": 72.11102550927978} | 0 | 1673506187259 | 160 | EzraBrodey | 1672656879647 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyo1DIWTWTSBP9P3CK6wOOGmDQdEKAFkYGfz62p=s96-c | 11 | 1650314607756 | 0 | 3 | 11 | [{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1658986125150}, {"name": "Iran", "slug": "iran", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "E1hI0LQPWmoAcpvhcjHa", "createdTime": 1664641525590}] | ["nuclear-risk", "iran"] | 1672632139592 | 1672656876523 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9749764232043429 | KMvjE1fetnIv6yujNP7Z | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9749764232043429 | will-there-be-over-200-ukrainian-mi | 10288.185103485564 | {"NO": 339.1734135544658, "YES": 3746.6414829599694} | Will there be over 200 Ukrainian Military deaths by the end of March 2022 | 1649366460439 | PJPO3T2HgVNTf7QWO6AIKRWcQO42 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 310, "YES": 3812} | 0 | 4.6267180367686755 | True | play | YES | public | 1642128615362 | Ezra Brodey | Question will resolve based off of official reports, reputable reporting and OSINT as of the end date 04/30/2022
Jan 14, 3:02pm: Death count over the span of 1/13/2022 - 3/31/2022
Close date updated to 2022-04-30 11:59 pm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 677.9662946618538, "YES": 4231.85196226044} | {"creatorFee": 12.817998943932114, "platformFee": 3.2044997359830285, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 154.91933384829667, "YES": 126.49110640673517} | 0 | 1649366460439 | 100 | EzraBrodey | 1642128615362 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyo1DIWTWTSBP9P3CK6wOOGmDQdEKAFkYGfz62p=s96-c | 53 | 1715657949935 | 0 | 1646300744842 | 0.9749764232043429 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.0847315299101753 | eITyjM2TdY8P9kd8nhwE | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.0847315299101753 | will-midnight-the-stray-cat-allow-h | 112837.97019839738 | {"NO": 35312.777026594165, "YES": 9046.182565825464} | Will Midnight the stray cat allow humans to pet her by April 1st, 2022 | 1648796399000 | tMHyhPxiQyWe2M46byaEz1FOXHu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 35822, "YES": 8758} | 0 | 4.616241983955529 | True | play | NO | public | 1642128947140 | James Medlock | This market will be resolved by @jdcmedlock on twitter reporting if Midnight has or has not let him pet her | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 42629.407135942776, "YES": 12970.525324631828} | {"creatorFee": 348.66799745030727, "platformFee": 87.16699936257682, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 163.707055437449, "YES": 114.89125293076057} | 0 | 1649390634996 | 100 | JamesMedlock | 1642128947140 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj9DJA2qdCfztMb3SeXkkUOQdp7fIF_53hwwuPo=s96-c | 104 | 1715658480411 | 0 | 1 | 1648738420122 | 0.0847315299101753 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.05506784423044906 | XJdCBuC9OibfeL4yLInU | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.05506784423044906 | will-any-version-of-build-back-bett | 5971.394505217641 | {"NO": 1438.900085848517, "YES": 555.7054089338426} | Will any version of Build Back Better be signed into law before March 1st 2022? | 1646110799000 | yRcXQgkX0FSuNZWtQLKKrRfLiLk1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1524.3899999999999, "YES": 249.61000000000013} | 0 | 4.637642921149318 | True | play | NO | public | 1642129203898 | Samuel Hammond | The law's contents may change. It just must be called the Build Back Better Act, be passed using budget reconciliation, and be signed into law by POTUS anytime on or before March 1st, 2022. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 2133.3237892412844, "YES": 514.9979494970204} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 111.35528725660045, "YES": 166.1324772583615} | 0 | 1646334686559 | 100 | SamuelHammond | 1642129203898 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgfX1KcKmOIsEJqY-lFIaopxdZ0LgTRPPKvy0G45g=s96-c | 32 | 1715658289621 | 0 | 1 | 1642144873220 | 0.05506784423044906 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.13110264638205926 | gyYJo1K5OW8DJ1omMDYD | {"NO": 976.0494796926412, "YES": 1115.2636557643732} | 0.11664652142293902 | will-there-be-us-constitutional-ref | 1781.078360943047 | {"NO": 25, "YES": 11} | Will there be US Constitutional reform by 2027? | 1830315599000 | TalJQt84BNe6lkwMfSDAvNObn4w2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 25, "YES": 11} | 0 | 9.9620106838955 | False | basic | public | 1642129220241 | Paul Elliott Williams | This market resolves to YES if any amendments to the US Constitution are ratified and adopted by 12/31/2027 and NO otherwise. | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"NO": 224.6664193866097, "YES": 72.2564875980005} | {"creatorFee": 0.7280187767153262, "platformFee": 0.2938645025018702, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 198.997487421324, "YES": 20} | 0 | 1000 | PaulElliottWilliams | 1714812897334 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj7nlDQKySEPS08EdYUV_13iTJh0PyJL5Qc8vZEzg=s96-c | 24 | 1650314712594 | 0 | 10 | 1714812894010 | 1680497565450 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09689232206642315 | pzz2RSYsyGIiUFFgjOSH | {"NO": 166.09008589347266, "YES": 437.62030605673783} | 0.039125745949511445 | will-starlink-ipo-by-the-end-2023 | 1005.9490885223559 | {"NO": 0, "YES": 0} | Will Starlink IPO by the end 2023? | 1672633199452 | H3KyohhN3TYz7hczLy1XC6JRqFr1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 0, "YES": 0} | 0 | 5.092090715020768 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1642129356081 | Jiaobei Mandos | This market will resolve to yes if shares of Starlink are available for purchase on Nasdaq, the New York Stock Exchange, or any other major stock exchange, at any time on or before December 31st, 2023.
Jan 13, 10:22pm: #stocks
Jan 13, 10:24pm: #IPO | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 189.73665961010275, "YES": 63.245553203367585} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 189.73665961010275, "YES": 63.245553203367585} | 0 | 1672633199452 | 181.59989128081102 | JiaobeiMandos | 1710451951529 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzoOjPsK1K9is149xWEcETYVuD3NTR_tS5d4aQ0=s96-c | 9 | 1650314769028 | 0 | 13 | [{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}] | ["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"] | 1672603789026 | 1672633195653 | 0.04 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.17611294946252531 | QTiEJfDPHDhrY9762zJw | {"NO": 169.60624883187225, "YES": 1104.1304999148817} | 0.03179170748426028 | will-starlink-ipo-by-the-end-2024 | 2272.344554328486 | {"NO": 0, "YES": 0} | Will Starlink IPO by the end 2024? | 1735793999000 | H3KyohhN3TYz7hczLy1XC6JRqFr1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 0, "YES": 0} | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1642129412343 | Jiaobei Mandos | This market will resolve to yes if shares of Starlink are available for purchase on Nasdaq, the New York Stock Exchange, or any other major stock exchange, at any time on or before December 31st, 2024.
Jan 13, 10:22pm: #stocks
Jan 13, 10:23pm: #IPO | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 178.88543819998318, "YES": 89.44271909999159} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 178.88543819998318, "YES": 89.44271909999159} | 0 | 240 | JiaobeiMandos | 1710947668320 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzoOjPsK1K9is149xWEcETYVuD3NTR_tS5d4aQ0=s96-c | 8 | 1650314582147 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}] | ["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"] | 1710947664734 | 1700077384849 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.26385815826467174 | vOsfztKzCVYlJ39jeD56 | {"NO": 841.2308975840608, "YES": 1460.2494391793368} | 0.17114876826780412 | will-starlink-ipo-by-the-end-2025 | 2341.8685783631963 | {"NO": 1, "YES": 20} | Will Starlink IPO by the end 2025? | 1767329999000 | H3KyohhN3TYz7hczLy1XC6JRqFr1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1, "YES": 20} | 0 | 9.666070101358098 | False | basic | public | 1642129448679 | Jiaobei Mandos | This market will resolve to yes if shares of Starlink are available for purchase on Nasdaq, the New York Stock Exchange, or any other major stock exchange, at any time on or before December 31st, 2025.
Jan 13, 10:22pm: #stocks #IPO | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.01392099676292402} | 0 | {"NO": 168.64459671154603, "YES": 142.82856857085702} | {"creatorFee": 3.92796252316384, "platformFee": 1.365359890969387, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 167.33200530681512, "YES": 109.54451150103321} | 0 | 1000 | JiaobeiMandos | 1718171542628 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzoOjPsK1K9is149xWEcETYVuD3NTR_tS5d4aQ0=s96-c | 18 | 1650314800723 | 0 | 6 | [{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}] | ["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"] | 1718171539467 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2542300978701673 | S4JoSrI2Ck6gy4oJmNgH | {"NO": 959.7813598258952, "YES": 981.5573476979225} | 0.2500000000000002 | will-starlink-ipo-by-the-end-2026 | 1963.4516354089244 | {"NO": 0, "YES": 20} | Will Starlink IPO by the end 2026? | 1798779599000 | H3KyohhN3TYz7hczLy1XC6JRqFr1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 0, "YES": 20} | 0 | 9.612323248771146 | False | basic | public | 1642129604843 | Jiaobei Mandos | This market will resolve to yes if shares of Starlink are available for purchase on Nasdaq, the New York Stock Exchange, or any other major stock exchange, at any time on or before December 31st, 2026.
Jan 13, 10:22pm: #stocks #IPO | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.01208876124327482} | 0 | {"NO": 154.91933384829667, "YES": 156.20499351813308} | {"creatorFee": 12.259702897544319, "platformFee": 5.53608563691684, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 154.91933384829667, "YES": 126.49110640673517} | 0 | 1000 | JiaobeiMandos | 1719798456018 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzoOjPsK1K9is149xWEcETYVuD3NTR_tS5d4aQ0=s96-c | 0 | 18 | 1650314595899 | 1 | 4 | [{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}] | ["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"] | 1719798456018 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.17053115838027422 | fulgfs9R8ITGhvF3lb33 | {"NO": 108.69690700840752, "YES": 844.1136003014425} | 0 | will-there-be-five-or-more-american | 1691.8205375453063 | {"NO": 0, "YES": 10} | Will there be five or more American Military Casualties in Iraq or Syria due to an attack by Iranian backed groups in 2022 | 1697169599000 | PJPO3T2HgVNTf7QWO6AIKRWcQO42 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 0, "YES": 10} | 0 | 3.9601999184024255 | True | play | NO | public | 1642129622241 | Ezra Brodey | Will there be five or more American Military Casualties in Iraq or Syria due to an attack by Iranian backed groups in 2022. Market resolves based on official reports, reputable reporting, and OSINT | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 182.20867158288598, "YES": 104.4030650891055} | {"creatorFee": 0.325359186464119, "platformFee": 0.054226531077353174, "liquidityFee": 0.325359186464119} | {"NO": 182.20867158288598, "YES": 82.46211251235322} | 0 | 1699373615969 | 160.3253591864641 | EzraBrodey | 1682860872930 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyo1DIWTWTSBP9P3CK6wOOGmDQdEKAFkYGfz62p=s96-c | 9 | 1650314703647 | 0 | 6 | 8 | [{"name": "Iran", "slug": "iran", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "E1hI0LQPWmoAcpvhcjHa", "createdTime": 1664641525590}, {"name": "Asia", "slug": "asia", "groupId": "bPTxMZhUYsIUXsWT969d", "createdTime": 1693972757664}] | ["iran", "asia"] | 1682860872843 | 1679630672922 | 0.03 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7116100781361845 | ntKOWECROxViqmw7pf9i | {"NO": 828.6142860671592, "YES": 1077.3057199488012} | 0.6549236415845165 | will-starlink-ipo-by-the-end-2027 | 2079.547604755491 | {"NO": 0, "YES": 45} | Will Starlink IPO by the end 2027? | 1830315599000 | H3KyohhN3TYz7hczLy1XC6JRqFr1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 0, "YES": 45} | 0.09242968631929607 | 9.539931088721472 | False | basic | public | 1642129645778 | Jiaobei Mandos | This market will resolve to yes if shares of Starlink are available for purchase on Nasdaq, the New York Stock Exchange, or any other major stock exchange, at any time on or before December 31st, 2027.
Jan 13, 10:22pm: #stocks #IPO | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.034614842082896} | 0 | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 200.06249023742558} | {"creatorFee": 5.796165200706747, "platformFee": 1.1904087433338306, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1000 | JiaobeiMandos | 1717856567774 | 1.2 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzoOjPsK1K9is149xWEcETYVuD3NTR_tS5d4aQ0=s96-c | 13 | 1650314755767 | 0 | 8 | [{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}] | ["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"] | 0.12062461180479886 | 1717856564460 | 1714074919285 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4448398309211371 | CX5vN5bFulAIrrIrsdzq | {"NO": 53.525831636616715, "YES": 234.7237456496244} | 0 | medlock-pets-the-cat-by-june-1st-20 | 496.57610295178796 | {"NO": 112.61990015170895, "YES": 103.8039968965031} | Medlock pets the cat by June 1st 2022 | 1654142399000 | rVlDFjwBfvTuSihKD2P1S06KjRK2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 120, "YES": 104} | 0 | 3.0079960482992503 | True | play | NO | public | 1642129859839 | Matt Darling | Twitter user @jdcmedlock will post a picture of a human hand petting the cat, and assert that it is his hand. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 309.18095354148176, "YES": 278.95519353473236} | {"creatorFee": 1.657526102253302, "platformFee": 0.27625435037555035, "liquidityFee": 1.657526102253302} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1654548654565 | 101.65752610225331 | MattDarling | 1654126696129 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJx9RKd8e7ZzvHhvv-xbQb-FqmNlMvQhf53ts-g1=s96-c | 9 | 1650313848168 | 0 | 1 | 1654126694834 | 0.15449304975043146 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.04738752542815839 | dLWaqmfacgu0IUM7H8g9 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.04738752542815839 | matt-darling-wins-the-neoliberal-sh | 142.73949730250095 | {"NO": 131, "YES": 0.2605026974990494} | Matt Darling wins the neoliberal shill contest AND James Medlock pets The Cat by 4/1/2022 | 1648871999000 | rVlDFjwBfvTuSihKD2P1S06KjRK2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 131, "YES": 0} | 0 | 4.755500641357856 | True | play | NO | public | 1642130747037 | Matt Darling | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 323.31644042238213, "YES": 72.11102550927978} | {"creatorFee": 0.03385282872203625, "platformFee": 0.008463207180509063, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 186.5475810617763, "YES": 72.11102550927978} | 0 | 1649352019839 | 100 | MattDarling | 1642130747037 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJx9RKd8e7ZzvHhvv-xbQb-FqmNlMvQhf53ts-g1=s96-c | 4 | 1715658463048 | 0 | 1 | 0.04738752542815839 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5659865702479338 | GBJrXr1zRgaFCw2lY6pu | {"NO": 7.918315363617694, "YES": 699.1291678154181} | 0 | will-rm-still-work-at-t-by-the-end | 1280 | {"NO": 210, "YES": 470} | Will R.M. still work at T. by the end of 2022? | 1658194592638 | F8I8CX9I7rS0WKw2n0uWQq03JjY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 210, "YES": 470} | 0 | 4.923322224460631 | True | play | NO | public | 1642130827486 | Mark Hay | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 579.7413216254298, "YES": 662.0422947214173} | {"creatorFee": 0.8708321845819302, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1658194592638 | 100 | MarkHay | 1658191010340 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJywN8Rr5LUEMFo3EP73qHhTolDpmuDXQpQvZcO-hw=s96-c | 4 | 1650313873549 | 0 | 1658191009085 | 0.014554950850215029 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.45351473922902497 | FoA5JNtvTB5QTdyrJSHu | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.45351473922902497 | will-tcs-companies-have-a-total-cap | 10 | {"NO": 10, "YES": 0} | Will Tcs companies have a total capitalization exceeding $500m by the end of 2022? | 1672646399000 | F8I8CX9I7rS0WKw2n0uWQq03JjY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 10, "YES": 0} | 0 | 4.828237724912245 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1642132172073 | Mark Hay | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 155.24174696260025, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1642132456686 | 100 | MarkHay | 1642132172073 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJywN8Rr5LUEMFo3EP73qHhTolDpmuDXQpQvZcO-hw=s96-c | 1 | 1715657852571 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.12174881426395397 | xNaZfcgXQyMzF42XalP7 | {"NO": 152.6896743384085, "YES": 1435.9807169840233} | 0 | will-manifold-markets-require-proof | 10880.840382724014 | {"NO": 1052.5375945789112, "YES": 602.9999999999999} | Will Manifold Markets require Proof of Humanity by the end of 2022? | 1672549199000 | H3KyohhN3TYz7hczLy1XC6JRqFr1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1058, "YES": 603} | 0 | 3.997413462635225 | True | play | NO | public | 1642133199271 | Jiaobei Mandos | This market resolves to "yes" if, at anytime during 2022, Manifold Markets announces that it has, or will, require proof of humanity in order to create an account, or to enable any additional features.
If Manifold Markets states that it will require proof of humanity (by way of a public statement), but then changes it'... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1673.1885877320256, "YES": 802.1594073368465} | {"creatorFee": 7.095999956172422, "platformFee": 0.5065899868015762, "liquidityFee": 2.961929263133684} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1673008771168 | 202.96192926313367 | JiaobeiMandos | 1671511781546 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzoOjPsK1K9is149xWEcETYVuD3NTR_tS5d4aQ0=s96-c | 69 | 1650314819813 | 0 | 2 | 67 | [{"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1659104133012}] | ["internet"] | 1671511781238 | 1652368583495 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5790824508495221 | XefLCEiiaKnxXKaY5qKR | {"NO": 344.3052931637411, "YES": 40.7593847160447} | 1 | will-4-members-of-tcs-get-engaged-o | 1441 | {"NO": 320, "YES": 720} | Will 4 members of Tcs get engaged or married by the end of 2022? | 1658284343390 | F8I8CX9I7rS0WKw2n0uWQq03JjY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 320, "YES": 720} | 0 | 3.384761233114803 | True | play | YES | public | 1642133314691 | Mark Hay | Not necessarily to each other | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 804.4874144447507, "YES": 943.610088966836} | {"creatorFee": 2.7012506333526276, "platformFee": 0.005733116837181742, "liquidityFee": 0.03439870102309045} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1658284343390 | 100.0343987010231 | MarkHay | 1658253386982 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJywN8Rr5LUEMFo3EP73qHhTolDpmuDXQpQvZcO-hw=s96-c | 7 | 1650314632390 | 0 | 1658253386848 | 0.9207696549170502 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.20375164171289312 | OH9G7au1Doo4GpfQpGWD | {"NO": 145.83330405633757, "YES": 229.23435109726546} | 1 | will-there-be-at-least-one-tc-baby | 870.3334497986052 | {"NO": 110, "YES": 1} | Will there be at least one TC baby by the end of 2023? | 1704004652869 | Dd65tTaPtnhugfGe6Mk05ltAq3s2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 110, "YES": 1} | 0 | 3.017535796326162 | True | play | YES | public | 1642133599605 | Long Tran | will resolve yes if there exist at least one child where the 2 biological parents are both members of the Discord group TC
abortions doesn't count | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 275.86228448267445, "YES": 143.60013927569847} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1704004652869 | 160 | LongTran | 1704004653912 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz6tbWeCe7nLk7DQB4L42Oiu6dAzmDsNcgv2nyl=s96-c | 8 | 1650314563451 | 0 | 7 | [{"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703130105255}] | ["new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 1694213896339 | 1642198567493 | 0.14 | Dd65tTaPtnhugfGe6Mk05ltAq3s2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6948242187500001 | lFDvqeWDB4kR8QHBfAZ3 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.6948242187500001 | will-the-winner-of-the-semifinals-o | 56 | {"NO": 0, "YES": 56} | Will the winner of the semi-finals of my "which animal would evolve intelligence if primates hadn't existed" tournament go on to win the whole thing? | 1643695199000 | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 0, "YES": 56} | 0 | 4.793209607606701 | True | play | YES | public | 1642134558982 | Lars Doucet | This ongoing tournament, it's double elimination so the current semi-finals have Octopus versus Dolphin (both undefeated). Whoever wins that is guaranteed a spot in the finals against the eventual winner of the loser's bracket.
https://twitter.com/larsiusprime/status/1481837951181012993 | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 213.39165869358627} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1643175546734 | 100 | LarsDoucet | 1642134558982 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c | 3 | 1715658616875 | 0 | 1643175539193 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1766805472932778 | Y7chgPuojBuzkfLKlm7K | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0 | will-sans-and-papyrus-commentary-re | 210 | {"NO": 160, "YES": 50} | Will Sans and Papyrus Commentary return by February 2022? | 1643777999000 | mkcSEuY1XBfyaI0kcA07gUDbFfR2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 160, "YES": 50} | 0 | 4.765059725594702 | True | play | NO | public | 1642135709568 | Jack Loughlin | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 372.0215047547655, "YES": 172.33687939614086} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 181.10770276274835, "YES": 84.8528137423857} | 0 | 1672702538732 | 100 | JackLoughlin | 1642135709568 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwx8RJ-9bMgkOgkG5gKeLZWQb6Nr_IExy5l1T5r=s96-c | 4 | 1650314636087 | 0 | 1 | 5 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661779558350}] | ["please-resolve"] | 0.18 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1832614619584526 | TRZqdyUnYJ0bScisKUYb | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.1832614619584526 | will-northernlion-eat-a-sandwich-co | 3595.288620018614 | {"NO": 2237.711379981386, "YES": 1075} | Will NorthernLion eat a sandwich containing at least 250 calories on a livestream before February 2022? | 1643781599000 | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 2239, "YES": 1075} | 0 | 4.6292521858479265 | True | play | NO | public | 1642140262990 | Lars Doucet | Should a sandwich appear I will use my best judgment to estimate the number of calories. He doesn’t have to eat the whole thing on stream so long as he eats part of it on stream and we have good reason to believe he went on to finish it.
#gaming
#twitch | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 3174.563304813823, "YES": 1503.7583126221678} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1644251789705 | 100 | LarsDoucet | 1642140262990 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c | 18 | 1715658207293 | 0 | 1643144521828 | 0.1832614619584526 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1728395061728395 | C4JbXYrstvcvjXmXVhHB | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.1728395061728395 | will-humanity-go-extinct-within-fiv | 700 | {"NO": 500, "YES": 200} | Will humanity go extinct within five minutes of this poll being created? | 1642233599000 | F8I8CX9I7rS0WKw2n0uWQq03JjY2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 500, "YES": 200} | 0 | 4.669158514153732 | True | play | NO | public | 1642141693656 | Mark Hay | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 818.535277187245, "YES": 374.16573867739413} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1642141987580 | 100 | MarkHay | 1642141693656 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJywN8Rr5LUEMFo3EP73qHhTolDpmuDXQpQvZcO-hw=s96-c | 2 | 1715657747075 | 0 | 1642142067178 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | LKRS1WC1g0Hdo2NAdUd6 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | test-e1789b2a545bc | 0 | {"NO": 0, "YES": 0} | Test | 1642319999000 | UB5cYGbl6WO7rp1h4SYlHRuhrAK2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 0, "YES": 0} | 0 | 4.837765190619555 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1642143471662 | Tamuz Hod | Will resolve as N/C soon
N/A | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1642144604086 | 100 | TamuzHod | 1642143471662 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzCqsz6eeP70n8cjP4zF5TIaCVne5WxI2YEQ7N6=s96-c | 0 | 1715657971380 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.68 | I6nT7FCBFU3TZtODRV77 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.68 | will-democrats-lose-senate-majority | 50 | {"NO": 0, "YES": 50} | Will Democrats lose Senate majority after 2022 midterm elections? | 1670659199000 | my3tQfyCtZgOsjx7NYc7RvE2bzj1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 0, "YES": 50} | 0 | 4.797109350291603 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1642153844314 | Tasties | Jan 14, 1:53am: Removed due to redundant market | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 206.15528128088303} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1642154039941 | 100 | Tasties | 1642153844314 | 0 | 1 | 1715657898269 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7060674965635078 | CGtDhDRjEca4GAqc9JkQ | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7060674965635078 | should-manifold-markets-implement-t | 358 | {"NO": 120, "YES": 238} | Should Manifold Markets implement this feature: Pre-commit to a resolution mechanism | 1643691599000 | H3KyohhN3TYz7hczLy1XC6JRqFr1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 120, "YES": 238} | 0 | 4.7008628107595865 | True | play | YES | public | 1642170898078 | Jiaobei Mandos | The simplest version of this feature is that the market becomes a yes/no poll, and if it closes with % chance greater than 50%, it resolves to yes, otherwise it resolves to no. I guess exactly 50% would resolve to "N/A" or "MKT"
A more advanced feature would make it more like a poll, allowing the creator to specify t... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 302.5227264190246, "YES": 468.8752499332845} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1643899229280 | 100 | JiaobeiMandos | 1642170898078 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzoOjPsK1K9is149xWEcETYVuD3NTR_tS5d4aQ0=s96-c | 4 | 1715657755159 | 0 | 1642198464422 | 0.7060674965635078 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6021892837136066 | JVY6i36gPWYpoiBDaTsH | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.6021892837136066 | should-manifold-markets-implement-t-d5da24049b2ee | 57 | {"NO": 15, "YES": 42} | Should Manifold Markets implement this feature: Propose a question for someone else to judge | 1643691599000 | H3KyohhN3TYz7hczLy1XC6JRqFr1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 15, "YES": 42} | 0 | 4.792575883984042 | True | play | YES | public | 1642173154195 | Jiaobei Mandos | The way this feature would work is that I create a market, but instead of judging it myself, I want someone else to judge it. Once the market is created, it would work sort of like a pull-request, in that it remains in-active until and unless the proposed judge accepts it. (If the judge rejects it, it just gets deleted... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 162.09565077447326, "YES": 199.4341996749805} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1643899247049 | 100 | JiaobeiMandos | 1642173154195 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzoOjPsK1K9is149xWEcETYVuD3NTR_tS5d4aQ0=s96-c | 4 | 1715657940097 | 0 | 1642182923206 | 0.6021892837136066 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.43640275808107964 | Lg6Fd2GCrmctfPmY8qq0 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.43640275808107964 | should-manifold-markets-implement-t-162d90968fa11 | 86 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 36} | Should Manifold Markets implement this feature: Resolution Bonds | 1643691599000 | H3KyohhN3TYz7hczLy1XC6JRqFr1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 36} | 0 | 4.775980129771248 | True | play | NO | public | 1642175782980 | Jiaobei Mandos | This feature would allow market creators to post a bond when creating a market. If the market it resolved poorly (more on that later), the market creator loses the bond.
The rationale for this feature is that, as a market creator, I want to encourage people to participate in my markets by showing that I'll resolve it ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 214.7091055358389, "YES": 188.9338508579127} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1643899276282 | 100 | JiaobeiMandos | 1642175782980 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzoOjPsK1K9is149xWEcETYVuD3NTR_tS5d4aQ0=s96-c | 3 | 1715657980852 | 0 | 1642181440795 | 0.43640275808107964 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.61131744720665 | nqUQGUvYscQaKf43yoMN | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.61131744720665 | will-the-most-costeffective-charity | 267.43662271020446 | {"NO": 67.67099030603941, "YES": 142.89238698375613} | Will the most cost-effective charity on Givewell's cost effectiveness spreadsheet at the end of 2022 be a Vitamin A supplementation charity? | 1649270578267 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 69, "YES": 143} | 0 | 4.729908622980947 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1642177876774 | Tetra | I will take the sum of the "Cost-effectiveness in multiples of cash transfers, after accounting for leverage/funging" values, weighted by the "Percentage of funding to be allocated to each country with marginal donations", for each charity on Givewell's cost effectiveness spreadsheet, and resolve YES if the highest-sco... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 256.9408058698868, "YES": 320.2244666644573} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1649270578267 | 100 | Tetraspace | 1642177876774 | 0 | 10 | 1715658664613 | 0 | 1649270572674 | 0.61131744720665 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4943587131212991 | 4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F | {"NO": 19681.518948986348, "YES": 130502.79656715687} | 0.1285007022091029 | will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres | 6777687.413587964 | {"NO": 1380.1151882834229, "YES": 354.4075548567608} | Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 1730959199000 | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1390, "YES": 346} | 0.2774611566826782 | 0.5373113200085047 | False | plus | public | 1642180918135 | Lars Doucet | #Politics #USPolitics #Elections #JoeBiden | BINARY | {"day": -0.049041821923476364, "week": -0.18144300256683057, "month": -0.3767723954160118} | 0 | {"NO": 1735.843537208614, "YES": 853.9469878497785} | {"creatorFee": 20311.071492361196, "platformFee": 20255.622503317503, "liquidityFee": 15.061311505329652} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 167157.20250259602 | 50274.10861944713 | LarsDoucet | 1720246458834 | 14.4 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c | 99 | 5339 | 1650313794968 | 75 | 239 | [{"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1662798870160}, {"name": "The Life of Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7Q... | ["politics-default", "global-macro", "the-life-of-biden", "2024-us-presidential-election", "us-politics"] | 0.4899497279605736 | 1720246455229 | 1720235408022 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2834549593319695 | Ua0kzjbcBjwSySES4hYt | {"NO": 2641.0203798796415, "YES": 756.5429954516474} | 0.58 | will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-us-p | 626968.8283671415 | {"NO": 257.6685217580061, "YES": 55.50010180489869} | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 1730959199000 | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 260, "YES": 55} | 0.1417738844697694 | 0.3854116656614356 | False | basic | public | 1642180968333 | Lars Doucet | #Politics #USPolitics #Elections #DonaldTrump | BINARY | {"day": 0.019999999999999907, "week": -0.0020890504428354717, "month": 0.09374632359413865} | 0 | {"NO": 451.7564217232561, "YES": 243.4300138463741} | {"creatorFee": 2055.2081578753136, "platformFee": 1158.9072593997141, "liquidityFee": 2.7235505863565237} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 11653.444196883847 | 1912.7235505863564 | LarsDoucet | 1720248234868 | 3.1 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c | 9 | 598 | 1650314610635 | 11 | 93 | [{"name": "MAGA-land", "slug": "magaland", "groupId": "EWgcYV1JYWP19dE3BZCb", "createdTime": 1658529438081}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529489223}, {"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "fS... | ["politics-default", "magaland", "2024-us-presidential-election", "us-politics", "donald-trump"] | 0.22227310818799587 | 1720248231762 | 1719538646263 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.16398597404181103 | PFvpxts5LpHOTSK2yY45 | {"NO": 132.34628556835597, "YES": 17460.328553913172} | 0 | will-bernie-sanders-seek-the-democr | 19425.47153089725 | {"NO": 235.097222794182, "YES": 105} | Will Bernie Sanders seek the Democratic Party's nomination for president in 2024? | 1709359199000 | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 248, "YES": 105} | 0 | 2.1873788388439097 | True | play | NO | public | 1642181278836 | Lars Doucet | Whether or not he gets it. If he runs, but exclusively as an independent, that's a no.
#USPolitics #Politics #Elections #BernieSanders | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 447.6882429954664, "YES": 302.12621063658236} | {"creatorFee": 1.0540071039824976, "platformFee": 0.1514736322252332, "liquidityFee": 0.7756970913831853} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1709360940554 | 320.77569709138317 | LarsDoucet | 1709360940831 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c | 40 | 1650314568504 | 0 | 1 | 34 | [{"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1665573579252}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529484717}, {"name": "Arb... | ["politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "arbbot-inbox"] | 1709356765288 | 1682456118098 | 0 | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5417052629433938 | qkKnkE3MLReZQHsYr17x | {"NO": 109.9487176240465, "YES": 126.05756462585556} | 1 | will-harvard-university-require-a-s | 4065.2608699737884 | {"NO": 85, "YES": 59.606557597680194} | Will Harvard University require a second booster (defined as a fourth dose of Moderna or Pfizer or a third dose if initially taken J&J) for students before 31 Dec 2022? | 1672527599000 | mf8cj8tWSjZWaVfsafmult9peQ23 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 85, "YES": 55} | 0 | 2.468498573544121 | True | play | YES | public | 1642181670056 | Jordan Berman | If Harvard updates their COVID policies (e.g. https://www.harvard.edu/coronavirus/covid-update-booster-requirement-omicron-variant-workforce-policies/) to say a booster is required in addition to the current booster shot already required, this will resolve to "yes") | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 268.81082996022906, "YES": 215.6256414145035} | {"creatorFee": 0.9327248980955596, "platformFee": 0.06457622609135985, "liquidityFee": 0.38745735654815905} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1672620982265 | 140.38745735654817 | smingers | 1672628439209 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhyLJKZWD3ZMYm0suDw201FejyHNhMltacoESZpIHo=s96-c | 27 | 1650314772989 | 0 | 1 | 26 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529506820}, {"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601091}] | ["politics-default", "medicine"] | 1672525708349 | 1672628436272 | 0.51 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.11885140168163504 | c8ZIGDvmS2RBCoRUe7Ym | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.11885140168163504 | will-joe-rogan-mention-the-recent-s | 647.459260812461 | {"NO": 392, "YES": 112.54073918753897} | Will Joe Rogan mention the recent study on Cannabis affording protection against COVID-19 within the next two weeks? | 1643435999000 | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 392, "YES": 84} | 0 | 4.683636636599 | True | play | NO | public | 1642181823301 | Lars Doucet | This study:
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20220113/Cannabinoids-may-prevent-infection-with-SARS-CoV-2-including-variants.aspx
#Cannabis #COVID19 #JoeRogan
#science | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 661.3489799883596, "YES": 242.8892336915743} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1643496780120 | 100 | LarsDoucet | 1642181823301 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c | 9 | 1715658416047 | 0 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529530658}] | ["science-default"] | 1643404130975 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.23530884741916167 | zdiaIb2ESdQTigYojUsP | {"NO": 59.58414148005165, "YES": 580.8484989227792} | 0 | will-france-still-be-requiring-the | 635.149663375772 | {"NO": 114.44307308753264, "YES": 13.407263536695439} | Will France still be requiring the Health Pass (Pass Sanitaire) for entry into restaurants on 1 Oct 2022? | 1664661599000 | mf8cj8tWSjZWaVfsafmult9peQ23 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 116, "YES": 13} | 0 | 4.3944915336846755 | True | play | NO | public | 1642181960887 | Jordan Berman | Mar 15, 3:52pm: As of yesterday, the Health Pass is not required for entry into restaurants (https://www.rfi.fr/en/france/20220304-france-to-suspend-covid-vaccine-pass-from-14-march-as-situation-improves-masks).
However I will keep this open until 1 Oct due to the phrasing of the question; it is conceivable that the g... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 286.5603657602001, "YES": 159.27648916271352} | {"creatorFee": 0.9712835398239121, "platformFee": 0.16707034634554324, "liquidityFee": 0.9090064633252177} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1672620846193 | 100.9090064633252 | smingers | 1664616737042 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhyLJKZWD3ZMYm0suDw201FejyHNhMltacoESZpIHo=s96-c | 13 | 1650315035770 | 0 | 1 | 14 | [{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601092}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529514041}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "... | ["politics-default", "medicine", "please-resolve"] | 1664616735829 | 0.03 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.46733879437093045 | LPX5w620YXqW6IERru5k | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.46733879437093045 | should-manifold-markets-implement-t-09d2f72b1534c | 145 | {"NO": 70, "YES": 75} | Should Manifold Markets implement this feature: support Markdown in the description field | 1643691599000 | H3KyohhN3TYz7hczLy1XC6JRqFr1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 70, "YES": 75} | 0 | 4.750278660841244 | True | play | NO | public | 1642182093801 | Jiaobei Mandos | Markdown is a light-weight, text-only format for writing rich text (i.e., bold text, italics, hyperlinks, lists, etc.).
Here is the original Markdown specification: https://daringfireball.net/projects/markdown/
Here is a more-complete specification based on the original markdown: https://commonmark.org/
Markdown is w... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 251.79356624028344, "YES": 235.8495283014151} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1643899311041 | 100 | JiaobeiMandos | 1642182093801 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzoOjPsK1K9is149xWEcETYVuD3NTR_tS5d4aQ0=s96-c | 5 | 1715657975935 | 0 | 1643140604291 | 0.46733879437093045 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5325626729889678 | Yf04PH7FqYVSsIIRUz9M | {"NO": 204.12124419551782, "YES": 53.7759997343192} | 1 | will-new-york-city-public-schools-d | 119 | {"NO": 3, "YES": 10} | Will New York City public schools discontinue all COVID testing of students before 31 Dec 2022? | 1663149698516 | mf8cj8tWSjZWaVfsafmult9peQ23 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 3, "YES": 10} | 0 | 2.9963905902896477 | True | play | YES | public | 1642182326544 | Jordan Berman | Current testing policy: https://www.schools.nyc.gov/school-life/health-and-wellness/covid-information/covid-19-testing-for-students
Market will resolve to "yes" if an official statement from the NYC Department of Education announces an end to testing AND the policy takes effect for a single day (even if later, testing... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 145.6331006330635, "YES": 155.4348738218036} | {"creatorFee": 2.0108643793900876, "platformFee": 0.026421714981578272, "liquidityFee": 0.1585302898894696} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1663149698516 | 100.15853028988947 | smingers | 1660888447954 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhyLJKZWD3ZMYm0suDw201FejyHNhMltacoESZpIHo=s96-c | 4 | 1650314641944 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601086}] | ["medicine"] | 1660888447900 | 0.8121928528356938 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.18761075679826703 | EVqTOAlO6KtkcG2FcKXj | {"NO": 163.16626069549247, "YES": 855.1507900233669} | 1 | will-richmond-virginia-take-concret | 1830.3827114693752 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 5} | Will Richmond, Virginia, take concrete steps towards a Land Value Tax by 2023? | 1672639199000 | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 50, "YES": 5} | 0 | 2.6840463553883414 | True | play | YES | public | 1642182466249 | Lars Doucet | Concrete steps include:
- Elected officials proposing and/or debating an LVT policy measure
- Actually enacting the policy measure
- Commissioning a new report on the subject that they haven't already done as of the posting of this question
LVT for the purpose of this question is defined as a property tax that falls e... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 207.3644135332772, "YES": 148.4082207965583} | {"creatorFee": 0.4547362998443002, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1672694838893 | 240 | LarsDoucet | 1672722467242 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c | 0 | 17 | 1650313861620 | 0 | 1 | 17 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529478142}, {"name": "Georgism", "slug": "georgism", "groupId": "ooKwTVHIXlosW4sq8E5L", "createdTime": 1658529562579}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTim... | ["georgism", "politics-default", "economics-default"] | 1672630080365 | 1672722463882 | 0.04 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9461279931707434 | 406KLS7Sh9vwUKJehCM2 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9461279931707434 | will-young-georgists-of-americas-go | 243.15761339694376 | {"NO": 3.842386603056241, "YES": 227} | Will Young Georgists of America's GoFundMe campaign be fully funded in 24 hours or less? | 1642399199000 | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 0, "YES": 227} | 0 | 4.724797180975321 | True | play | YES | public | 1642189410155 | Lars Doucet | This was posted just now at 1:42 PM Central USA time on January 14, 2022:
https://www.gofundme.com/f/help-fund-young-georgists-of-america?utm_campaign=m_pd+share-sheet&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
They are asking for $2,000.
This market will resolve to "YES" if by 1:42 PM Central USA time on January 15, 2022,... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 419.07655875008965} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 100, "YES": 173.20508075688772} | 0 | 1642211378873 | 100 | LarsDoucet | 1642189410155 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c | 5 | 1715656958637 | 0 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529564279}] | ["economics-default"] | 1642211369498 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8948623893984542 | DG5hbHuB328hsV8roaXl | {"NO": 208.07436342371048, "YES": 133.30051231526073} | 1 | will-at-least-50000-be-granted-to-e | 636.8047858917967 | {"NO": 0.11613100112919028, "YES": 91.49999999999997} | Will at least $50,000 be granted to EA charities as a result of Project for Awesome 2022? | 1676664290029 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": -2.220446049250313e-16, "YES": 91.5} | 5.762256170214275 | True | play | YES | public | 1642190131595 | Tetra | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Project for Awesome is a charity fundraiser hosted by John and Hank Green in which people advocate for charities by posting videos and the charities with the most votes across their videos win grants. Every year, the Effective Altruism community co... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 100.00000000000001, "YES": 273.9342400286385} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 100, "YES": 173.20508075688772} | 0 | 1676664357251 | 140 | Tetraspace | 1676664355824 | 0 | 8 | 1650313852249 | 0 | 8 | [{"name": "Project For Awesome", "slug": "project-for-awesome", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "3vbh8f3j7IP79dwpBTTs", "createdTime": 1665928297577}] | ["project-for-awesome"] | 1670083524310 | 1676664352577 | 0.93 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5737677936280619 | DpIYaXVbefk4c5xLovbB | {"NO": 171.53186163334752, "YES": 118.95143548760858} | 0 | will-at-least-100000-be-granted-to | 1903.9867909948036 | {"NO": 61, "YES": 164.91032508222838} | Will at least $100,000 be granted to EA charities as a result of Project for Awesome 2022? | 1676664256994 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 61, "YES": 172} | 2.2319769538457925 | True | play | NO | public | 1642190187403 | Tetra | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Project for Awesome is a charity fundraiser hosted by John and Hank Green in which people advocate for charities by posting videos and the charities with the most votes across their videos win grants. Every year, the Effective Altruism community co... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 235.89307196294143, "YES": 354.61819413495414} | {"creatorFee": 1.5593186911740675, "platformFee": 0.04368075367913837, "liquidityFee": 0.25139192683833156} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1676664350955 | 160 | Tetraspace | 1676761627481 | 0 | 19 | 1650313857818 | 0 | 19 | [{"name": "Project For Awesome", "slug": "project-for-awesome", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "3vbh8f3j7IP79dwpBTTs", "createdTime": 1665928297573}] | ["project-for-awesome"] | 1676660974483 | 1676761625301 | 0.66 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.23343357019086172 | Zqszx5UHHOwqBJ4f7GzL | {"NO": 145.8693849543838, "YES": 157.48876946078025} | 0 | will-at-least-200000-be-granted-to | 1175.4630602738998 | {"NO": 38.5, "YES": 20.936733259190163} | Will at least $200,000 be granted to EA charities as a result of Project for Awesome 2022? | 1676664269220 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 38.5, "YES": 21} | 2.877892688011702 | True | play | NO | public | 1642190259825 | Tetra | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Project for Awesome is a charity fundraiser hosted by John and Hank Green in which people advocate for charities by posting videos and the charities with the most votes across their videos win grants. Every year, the Effective Altruism community co... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 219.80063298630435, "YES": 137.82271330597186} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 173.20508075688772, "YES": 100} | 0 | 1676664363198 | 160 | Tetraspace | 1676664368508 | 0 | 16 | 1650314651297 | 0 | 17 | [{"name": "Project For Awesome", "slug": "project-for-awesome", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "3vbh8f3j7IP79dwpBTTs", "createdTime": 1665928297575}] | ["project-for-awesome"] | 1676661004697 | 1676664365832 | 0.22 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.08524033347818503 | PqUBnzj3tWCD8QAgtV8p | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.08524033347818503 | will-manifolders-become-the-defacto | 413.58317082885986 | {"NO": 306, "YES": 22.416829171140137} | Will "Manifolders" become the defacto name for what users of this site call themselves by February 2022? | 1643781599000 | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 306, "YES": 7} | 0 | 4.705448141691888 | True | play | NO | public | 1642191102005 | Lars Doucet | #meta | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 505.39407301462364, "YES": 154.27629861054865} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1643697598019 | 100 | LarsDoucet | 1642191102005 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c | 10 | 1715658124292 | 0 | 1643679196208 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5804283759983467 | vgXCxvRp7wja5zWL5X7C | {"NO": 624.811661264439, "YES": 1605.2288852950028} | 0.35000000000000003 | if-joe-biden-becomes-the-democratic | 34170.024576014934 | {"NO": 144.14045013374357, "YES": 149.35234622083752} | If Joe Biden becomes the Democratic nominee, will he win the 2024 election? | 1730678399000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 145, "YES": 149} | 0.04530126459376484 | 3.2958368660043296 | False | basic | public | 1642191660150 | Tetra | Joe Biden is the current President of the USA, elected on a Biden/Harris in 2020 in a presidential race against Trump/Pence. He has stated to CNBC that he intends to run for reelection again, as an incumbent (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/25/2024-presidential-election-joe-biden-expects-to-run-for-reelection.html).
One ... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.13937548016091367} | 0 | {"NO": 341.1122695086651, "YES": 356.619628798685} | {"creatorFee": 136.0081757277807, "platformFee": 6.739593614844982, "liquidityFee": 2.7035290103346745} | {"NO": 134.16407864998737, "YES": 148.32396974191326} | 0 | 1087.7035290103347 | Tetraspace | 1720111185934 | 2.2 | 2 | 141 | 1650314801730 | 2 | 41 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529510956}, {"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1658529582445}, {"name": "The Life of Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-bide... | ["2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default", "the-life-of-biden", "us-politics"] | 0.16286726415279476 | 1720111182707 | 1699900581952 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7405574061546986 | r6tg7GenC2jXu2c287Hc | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.7405574061546986 | will-the-united-states-cut-russia-o | 10065.451589304088 | {"NO": 1129.5124538291584, "YES": 2469.0359568667486} | Will the United States cut Russia off from the SWIFT system by 2023? | 1649162805548 | O4HmUYKgjdU5MayDjLLjfO4uypv2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1096, "YES": 2702} | 0 | 4.62819585140284 | True | play | YES | public | 1642192603480 | Clay Graubard | “ “Some call it the "nuclear option." It doesn't involve weapons though.
As U.S. President Joe Biden's administration considers economic threats to thwart what it fears is a new Kremlin plan to invade Ukraine, there is one option that is reportedly on the short list: cutting Russia off from the global electronic-payme... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1934.8099159050003, "YES": 3268.865341019127} | {"creatorFee": 35.89083721601926, "platformFee": 8.972709304004814, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1649162805548 | 100 | c | 1642192603480 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gji0E4EkP8dbxPEJroW7P6lTyz_eCb73mfsDQWTTA=s96-c | 66 | 1715658760734 | 0 | 1647356543422 | 0.7405574061546986 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5467718413929289 | QEg1vyVPIt8H4YH1UomV | {"NO": 82.90153438295737, "YES": 137.4498912256281} | 0 | within-6-months-at-least-15-of-the | 634.6566729537792 | {"NO": 25, "YES": 10.997054405193097} | Within 6 months at least 15 of the top most trade Markets will be self-promotional in nature. | 1657857599000 | uVpXNbuEffhA7mMuhmWMrws5eLl2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 25, "YES": 11} | 0 | 2.6534408159112313 | True | play | NO | public | 1642192748186 | Travis Adams | This market will resolve to "YES" if on 7/14/2022 at least 15 of the top most traded markets (determined by selecting all markets -> filter by most traded) relate to the poster's personal brand, business, or cause in which they're invested. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 158.31892551494823, "YES": 175.0135066551149} | {"creatorFee": 7.984479298811516, "platformFee": 0.7854039757005579, "liquidityFee": 4.7124238542033465} | {"NO": 118.32159566199232, "YES": 161.245154965971} | 0 | 1680900834649 | 104.71242385420335 | TravisAdams | 1680900834035 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzoc-jH1nABtjZQ35oT-3F8FJWYIM5e0shGJ1U1=s96-c | 10 | 1650314578786 | 0 | 1 | 13 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1662826043582}] | ["please-resolve"] | 1657832278138 | 1680900830940 | 0.42 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.18905155350878347 | qtuTqRH5nxkHmYl8H7sX | {"NO": 134.48030563284303, "YES": 955.1219224830205} | 0 | will-twitter-permanently-ban-a-seco | 1831.8646406134148 | {"NO": 156.80868742367983, "YES": 126.99999999999997} | Will Twitter permanently ban a second sitting member of Congress in 2022? | 1672527599000 | mf8cj8tWSjZWaVfsafmult9peQ23 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 159, "YES": 127} | 0 | 3.063537920761985 | True | play | NO | public | 1642193657889 | Jordan Berman | Twitter banned Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene's personal account on 2 Jan 2022 (https://mobile.twitter.com/i/events/1477670980071804930 - they refer to this, oddly, as a "permanent suspension").
This question resolves to "yes" if an account of a sitting member of Congress (House or Senate) is banned - this can ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 362.1914014398039, "YES": 320.7619596362616} | {"creatorFee": 1.9850232805434218, "platformFee": 0.2163927795857075, "liquidityFee": 1.1668779229350346} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1672620818339 | 221.16687792293504 | smingers | 1672481098161 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhyLJKZWD3ZMYm0suDw201FejyHNhMltacoESZpIHo=s96-c | 28 | 1650314774167 | 0 | 1 | 29 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529506893}, {"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1659104133012}] | ["politics-default", "internet"] | 1672481097974 | 1647355955318 | 0.03 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.955227644583643 | qaty621LjYtTIIA8isjW | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.955227644583643 | will-the-nord-stream-2-pipeline-be | 2428.619426753047 | {"NO": 240.37836974547508, "YES": 555.0022035014784} | Will the Nord Stream 2 pipeline be blocked or sanctioned by 2023? | 1672549199000 | O4HmUYKgjdU5MayDjLLjfO4uypv2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 30, "YES": 575} | 0 | 4.6642526941838405 | True | play | YES | public | 1642195721589 | Clay Graubard | "US Senate Democrats on Thursday voted down a bill that would have put sanctions on businesses involved in the Nord Stream 2 pipeline between Russia and Germany...
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said that Germany will almost certainly block the pipeline if Russia invades Ukraine. Germany's new government has... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 209.9798419825577, "YES": 969.8980239817934} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1645642752511 | 100 | c | 1642195721589 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gji0E4EkP8dbxPEJroW7P6lTyz_eCb73mfsDQWTTA=s96-c | 11 | 1715658742876 | 0 | 1645552737585 | 0.955227644583643 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.166087273881741 | rZw3lUIEwGJPw6BLUIhX | {"NO": 1182.280915230127, "YES": 3653.7236901972683} | 0.06054479462355108 | will-ukraine-be-an-official-member | 15818.398445503388 | {"NO": 1271.817214325694, "YES": 105} | Will Ukraine be an official member of NATO by 2025? | 1735707599000 | O4HmUYKgjdU5MayDjLLjfO4uypv2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 1264, "YES": 115} | 0.26034889254295285 | 9.570519721015634 | False | basic | public | 1642196386718 | Clay Graubard | "The tense talks this week among the United States, Russia and European members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization have made one thing clear: While the Biden administration insists it will not allow Moscow to quash Ukraine’s ambitions to join NATO, it has no immediate plans to help bring the former Soviet republ... | BINARY | {"day": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -0.0009422074996254248} | 0 | {"NO": 1506.7146308910305, "YES": 434.6007720707776} | {"creatorFee": 0.5634887107365145, "platformFee": 0.3509387781934107, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1445 | c | 1718948516369 | 1.4 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gji0E4EkP8dbxPEJroW7P6lTyz_eCb73mfsDQWTTA=s96-c | 0 | 105 | 1650314780180 | 0 | 51 | [{"name": "Štefan's group", "slug": "stefans-group", "userId": "UszWJomAxCdf5YMUaXcVhF08btr2", "groupId": "n36hk1sH9fxHIxPjTFPS", "createdTime": 1659093406874}] | ["stefans-group"] | 0.17524849869757114 | 1718948513251 | 1689695353795 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1037465464045302 | pdtn8a8nwuwezrXvDQO2 | {"NO": 940.7367089131193, "YES": 1419.2056610669495} | 0.07126211752027423 | will-malta-be-an-official-member-of | 2403.2001404303387 | {"NO": 99, "YES": 10} | Will Malta be an official member of NATO by 2025? | 1735707599000 | O4HmUYKgjdU5MayDjLLjfO4uypv2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 99, "YES": 10} | 0 | 10.185987105390822 | False | basic | public | 1642196754049 | Clay Graubard | **Europe to Russia: Invade Ukraine, and We All Join NATO -- The Washington Post**
"You may not have been glued to the annual new year’s address by Finland’s president. That’s understandable but unfortunate, because Sauli Niinisto said some remarkable things. His speech should give the European Union an idea, to be dis... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 265.6708489842271, "YES": 157.797338380595} | {"creatorFee": 0.35986054789155997, "platformFee": 0.10708915626304355, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1000 | c | 1716572448826 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gji0E4EkP8dbxPEJroW7P6lTyz_eCb73mfsDQWTTA=s96-c | 16 | 1650314766807 | 0 | 13 | [{"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1682900077476}] | ["ancient-markets"] | 1716572445306 | 1709677862858 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.10227253374362041 | RgjUvwhvwLfqfXPCOEWj | {"NO": 905.4682316696907, "YES": 1939.2772319086253} | 0.050505676697691605 | will-cyprus-be-an-official-member-o | 4374.0423495254045 | {"NO": 90.68529918561529, "YES": 10} | Will Cyprus be an official member of NATO by 2025? | 1735707599000 | O4HmUYKgjdU5MayDjLLjfO4uypv2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 93, "YES": 10} | 0 | 10.250637893885948 | False | basic | public | 1642196757687 | Clay Graubard | **Europe to Russia: Invade Ukraine, and We All Join NATO -- The Washington Post**
"You may not have been glued to the annual new year’s address by Finland’s president. That’s understandable but unfortunate, because Sauli Niinisto said some remarkable things. His speech should give the European Union an idea, to be dis... | BINARY | {"day": -6.938893903907228e-18, "week": -6.938893903907228e-18, "month": -6.938893903907228e-18} | 0 | {"NO": 256.7326413729718, "YES": 156.52475842498527} | {"creatorFee": 2.1437464633887897, "platformFee": 0.023147008143847073, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1000 | c | 1716614471882 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gji0E4EkP8dbxPEJroW7P6lTyz_eCb73mfsDQWTTA=s96-c | 16 | 1650314592281 | 0 | 11 | [{"name": "Cyprus", "slug": "cyprus", "groupId": "22dc6b09-07b1-46d0-9ae6-b62cd2d70865", "createdTime": 1702190388819}] | ["cyprus"] | 1716614468303 | 1648079519369 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.10255131295092457 | d42pN6fMta62SNMIPfOu | {"NO": 844.046726550973, "YES": 2198.270333051015} | 0.0420308815202884 | will-ireland-be-an-official-member | 5414.326665616548 | {"NO": 38, "YES": 10.000000000000028} | Will Ireland be an official member of NATO by 2025? | 1735707599000 | O4HmUYKgjdU5MayDjLLjfO4uypv2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 38, "YES": 10} | 0 | 10.32820895928241 | False | basic | public | 1642196759589 | Clay Graubard | **Europe to Russia: Invade Ukraine, and We All Join NATO -- The Washington Post**
"You may not have been glued to the annual new year’s address by Finland’s president. That’s understandable but unfortunate, because Sauli Niinisto said some remarkable things. His speech should give the European Union an idea, to be dis... | BINARY | {"day": -0.0010412836630918423, "week": -0.0010412836630918423, "month": -0.0010412836630919048} | 0 | {"NO": 191.79155351578964, "YES": 157.22595205626837} | {"creatorFee": 0.5127598229254617, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 50 | 1000 | c | 1720215258082 | 0.2 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gji0E4EkP8dbxPEJroW7P6lTyz_eCb73mfsDQWTTA=s96-c | 21 | 1650314677106 | 1 | 13 | [{"name": "Ireland", "slug": "ireland", "groupId": "a5026020-8558-42e6-903a-851ea5b0b74d"}, {"name": "EU Accession", "slug": "eu-accession", "groupId": "58020f90-bc71-43f4-b9fd-c96db0c6996d"}] | ["ireland", "eu-accession"] | 0.11574823872367795 | 1720215254817 | 1646195518335 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06672994104159864 | jHsdeIU5WuoJUUBlrGKL | {"NO": 929.3604798414896, "YES": 1556.6507128197877} | 0.04094039540204407 | will-austria-be-an-official-member | 3437.988023023924 | {"NO": 145, "YES": 50} | Will Austria be an official member of NATO by 2025? | 1735707599000 | O4HmUYKgjdU5MayDjLLjfO4uypv2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 145, "YES": 50} | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1642196763152 | Clay Graubard | **Europe to Russia: Invade Ukraine, and We All Join NATO -- The Washington Post**
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0.835657984332562 | dm8kDfQ1HDOhW8VVCjN7 | {"NO": 45156.71118933047, "YES": 868.1513049007597} | 1 | will-sweden-be-an-official-member-o | 88630.88753367779 | {"NO": 167.97163724642076, "YES": 260.2432289572075} | Will Sweden be an official member of NATO by 2025? | 1709922408699 | O4HmUYKgjdU5MayDjLLjfO4uypv2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 175, "YES": 270} | 0.4093513717639444 | 0.37889401455845917 | True | basic | YES | public | 1642196767203 | Clay Graubard | **Europe to Russia: Invade Ukraine, and We All Join NATO -- The Washington Post**
"You may not have been glued to the annual new year’s address by Finland’s president. That’s understandable but unfortunate, because Sauli Niinisto said some remarkable things. His speech should give the European Union an idea, to be dis... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 392.0414658491617, "YES": 490.87412559034215} | {"creatorFee": 2.0724805828859276, "platformFee": 0.3294227519444718, "liquidityFee": 1.9765365116668305} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1709922408699 | 1736.9765365116668 | c | 1709922400173 | 2.9 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gji0E4EkP8dbxPEJroW7P6lTyz_eCb73mfsDQWTTA=s96-c | 2 | 149 | 1650314683244 | 0 | 28 | [{"name": "Štefan's group", "slug": "stefans-group", "userId": "UszWJomAxCdf5YMUaXcVhF08btr2", "groupId": "n36hk1sH9fxHIxPjTFPS", "createdTime": 1659093406873}, {"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529419616}, {"name": "Sweden", "slug": "sweden", "userId": "Xt... | ["world-default", "stefans-group", "sweden", "nato", "turkey", "global-macro", "eu-accession"] | 0.16632208957594566 | 1709918362239 | 1709922399656 | False | 1 | 2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9161267996288827 | b72B3SYfUubnn28lGuup | {"NO": 26023.472126980196, "YES": 138.3872255085701} | 1 | will-finland-be-an-official-member | 30217.724868915193 | {"NO": 80.89077556074, "YES": 421.1549171693812} | Will Finland be an official member of NATO by 2025? | 1684003119120 | O4HmUYKgjdU5MayDjLLjfO4uypv2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 80, "YES": 420} | 0 | 4.149838578212002 | True | play | YES | public | 1642196769846 | Clay Graubard | **Europe to Russia: Invade Ukraine, and We All Join NATO -- The Washington Post**
"You may not have been glued to the annual new year’s address by Finland’s president. That’s understandable but unfortunate, because Sauli Niinisto said some remarkable things. His speech should give the European Union an idea, to be dis... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 282.86369903694464, "YES": 639.7480612865435} | {"creatorFee": 2.2332425269533966, "platformFee": 0.3722070878255663, "liquidityFee": 2.2332425269533966} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1684003119120 | 222.2332425269534 | c | 1683980671780 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gji0E4EkP8dbxPEJroW7P6lTyz_eCb73mfsDQWTTA=s96-c | 38 | 1650314663226 | 0 | 33 | [{"name": "Štefan's group", "slug": "stefans-group", "userId": "UszWJomAxCdf5YMUaXcVhF08btr2", "groupId": "n36hk1sH9fxHIxPjTFPS", "createdTime": 1659093406873}] | ["stefans-group"] | 1683980671625 | 1683977542018 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3638485828641973 | hciZJLxDJSjDyJOJAOHs | {"NO": 100.50353791319279, "YES": 163.60625760672863} | 0 | will-ukraine-fulfill-its-obligation | 1471.1928430212815 | {"NO": 42, "YES": 5} | Will Ukraine fulfill its obligations with respect to Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast by 2023? | 1672549199000 | O4HmUYKgjdU5MayDjLLjfO4uypv2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 42, "YES": 5} | 0 | 2.647961226326323 | True | play | NO | public | 1642197018156 | Clay Graubard | "Four other sections address political matters:
Article 4: elections in Donbas. The day after the pullback of heavy weaponry from the contact line, a dialogue on local elections will start in accordance with Ukrainian law and the temporary law on special status adopted in September 2014. No later than 30 days after th... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 196.88575367456122, "YES": 149.14757792200314} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1698674458815 | 120 | c | 1698553589861 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gji0E4EkP8dbxPEJroW7P6lTyz_eCb73mfsDQWTTA=s96-c | 8 | 1650314716833 | 0 | 61 | 9 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1671065850850}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660053929564}, {"name": "U... | ["global-macro", "world-default", "ukraine", "please-resolve", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 1671066092930 | 1698553585529 | False | 0.26 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14664081696125292 | 6HqQX70oGgfgoujeG3oQ | {"NO": 100.02685928378065, "YES": 2059.1091118771883} | 0 | will-another-longmysterious-disease | 4196.0139183393185 | {"NO": 59.97686549695641, "YES": 123} | Will another long-mysterious disease turn out to have been caused by a Virus all along before 2023? | 1672639199000 | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 60, "YES": 123} | 0 | 4.482107537908124 | True | play | NO | public | 1642200788233 | Lars Doucet | Epstein-Bar has recently been very credibly fingered as the leading cause of Multiple Sclerosis:
https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/epstein-barr-virus-may-be-leading-cause-of-multiple-sclerosis/
Will we discover that some other mysterious disease of unknown origin is caused by a Virus?
#virus
#medicine... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 232.17009427462577, "YES": 304.5789336615144} | {"creatorFee": 4.769931358408105, "platformFee": 0.4813231063415603, "liquidityFee": 2.8879386380493615} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1673020546535 | 222.88793863804938 | LarsDoucet | 1672791168214 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c | 2 | 30 | 1650313805668 | 0 | 1 | 29 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "HH6nyOCRMgfDs8CGsCxR3Vh3Nhj1", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1664471114587}] | ["science-default"] | 1672623866356 | 1672791164501 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Jan 16, 11:06pm: I intend to close after the match he would have played, starts. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 3349.1377994940735, "YES": 682.6419266350405} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 154.91933384829667, "YES": 126.49110640673517} | 0 | 1642412511584 | 100 | NathanpmYoung | 1642202054794 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c | 11 | 1715657707044 | 0 | [{"name": "Australia", "slug": "australia", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "HSXQIPdSZj3T5sj9vo46", "createdTime": 1661648112332}] | ["australia"] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Jan 23, 8:20am: confirmed, this is a 2022 market. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 2339.7313014529464, "YES": 440.5332681230265} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095} | 0 | 1643749833894 | 100 | Duncn | 1642202997690 | 0 | 18 | 1715658658292 | 0 | 1642939168708 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.26868367585522707 | EZ9boZQDT395RYuNbFto | {"NO": 120.49867900406154, "YES": 204.83156382959692} | 0 | will-mbaku-winston-duke-take-on-the | 311.83823982956034 | {"NO": 135, "YES": 70} | Will M'Baku (Winston Duke) take on the title of Black Panther in Black Panther 2 and future Marvel movies? | 1668085199000 | 7PVR5rvyNsfd07oAS5Q2GlqSzAx1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 135, "YES": 70} | 0 | 2.792575984118207 | True | play | NO | public | 1642213642235 | ca ca | If, as of Black Panther 2, M'Baku is going forward considered the new Black Panther, whether or not he's considered the king of Wakanda (which was established as a sometimes separate role by T'Challa in Civil War), then this market will pay out as "Yes". If he isn't confirmed in Black Panther 2, then this will pay out ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 254.80384612481816, "YES": 167.6305461424021} | {"creatorFee": 0.9578435058782409, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 63.245553203367585, "YES": 77.45966692414834} | 0 | 1690604978719 | 140 | caca | 1690604977978 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxzmHgo5DEL_sNgnWgKUECo6YTTb5l68UZDVSbk=s96-c | 9 | 1650313861976 | 0 | 3 | 11 | [{"name": "Marvel Cinematic Universe", "slug": "marvel-cinematic-universe", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "hIQdGqOuPcrwWMsQGhYd", "createdTime": 1668310196420}, {"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lg... | ["marvel-cinematic-universe", "entertainment"] | 1668081610023 | 1690604974504 | 0.18 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.7800053558802572 | vw6B8POBdcGXs4HWjlDx | {"NO": 2029.7255479540913, "YES": 44.67544177779719} | 1 | if-boris-johnson-is-leader-of-the-c | 2072.1425008365622 | {"NO": 27, "YES": 104.85749916343764} | If Boris Johnson is leader of the Conservative party, will they lose seats in the local elections, on net? | 1652050799000 | lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 27, "YES": 105} | 0 | 5.403009213427505 | True | play | YES | public | 1642244667172 | Nathan Young | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 109.79070998950685, "YES": 204.21532733446696} | {"creatorFee": 1.6467122754517103, "platformFee": 0.2744520459086184, "liquidityFee": 1.6467122754517103} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1652101620978 | 101.6467122754517 | NathanpmYoung | 1651957261052 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c | 7 | 1650314803291 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529511164}] | ["politics-default"] | 1651957260864 | 1651930180294 | 0.9938303812240399 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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#test #fun #shortterm | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 223.0899746947423, "YES": 220.97177320689855} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 10.000000000000005, "YES": 99.498743710662} | 0 | 1642436998576 | 100 | Duncn | 1642261313606 | 0 | 12 | 1715657877895 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3775180826003836 | 8eM9t6wpy733Gwmr5aKI | {"NO": 1078.034510986147, "YES": 856.0262776333462} | 0.433029254256383 | if-kamala-harris-becomes-the-democr | 4948.695440350364 | {"NO": 414.22352396135227, "YES": 199.96916647125283} | If Kamala Harris becomes the Democratic nominee, will she win the 2024 election? | 1730678399000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 415, "YES": 204.5} | 1.2312767348986591e-15 | 9.569026383928291 | False | basic | public | 1642268585570 | Tetra | Kamala Harris is currently the Vice President of the US, elected in 2020 on the Biden/Harris ticket.
One consideration for the Democratic party when choosing a nominee is how likely they are to actually win an election. I thus ask how likely Harris is to win the presidency, if she is chosen as the Democratic the nomin... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 0.008813598458290606, "month": -0.00053247792047173} | 0 | {"NO": 578.2386115266074, "YES": 419.1793258345928} | {"creatorFee": 29.869148899881377, "platformFee": 1.0071527943127077, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 74.16198487095663, "YES": 67.08203932499369} | 0 | 1000 | Tetraspace | 1720078238321 | 0.1 | 79 | 1650313821252 | 5 | 43 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529473204}, {"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1662798971842}] | ["politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election"] | 0.11653156631912272 | 1720078235262 | 1702818973074 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8730477457403448 | YaMCtfzJZTc0nObxqvaI | {"NO": 2240.4504749053854, "YES": 848.0712558587434} | 1 | if-keir-starmer-is-the-leader-of-th | 4691.677975584947 | {"NO": 116, "YES": 176.54412789799048} | If Keir Starmer is the leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK general election, will the Labour Party win? | 1720165611863 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 116, "YES": 182} | 0.058825190306090035 | 10.136748300285873 | True | basic | YES | public | 1642269038640 | Tetra | This resolves N/A if Keir Starmer is not the leader of the Labour Party going into the next general election, currently scheduled for the 2nd May 2024, YES if the first government formed after that election is a Labour majority or minority government or a coalition government where Labour makes up a plurality of the se... | BINARY | {"day": 0.05217102825169018, "week": 0.06932212795091963, "month": 0.06932212795091985} | 0 | {"NO": 263.4211912312435, "YES": 291.03293345858066} | {"creatorFee": 4.4952433868500945, "platformFee": 0.2679804329641285, "liquidityFee": 0.24472491970468457} | {"NO": 77.45966692414834, "YES": 63.245553203367585} | 0 | 1720165611863 | 1000 | Tetraspace | 1720165611863 | 2.4 | 42 | 1650314641334 | 1 | 23 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529492598}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1659031761292}] | ["politics-default", "uk-politics"] | 0.1454080866309729 | 1719959591349 | 1688124222310 | 0.95 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5051242928176163 | Zl5QvpkGBF2zkoJg8itV | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5051242928176163 | should-manifold-markets-implement-t-de1088aa58674 | 646.5595734349633 | {"NO": 408.44042656503666, "YES": 213} | Should Manifold Markets implement this feature: Ban pseudonyms and require real names | 1643864399000 | H3KyohhN3TYz7hczLy1XC6JRqFr1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 411, "YES": 213} | 0 | 4.682085272420814 | True | play | YES | public | 1642269575116 | Jiaobei Mandos | Elsewhere (https://manifold.markets/JiaobeiMandos/will-manifold-markets-require-proof), Austin Chen has said that Manifold Markets is considering requiring additional forms of authentication, potentially including government ID. This would defacto require divulging your real name *to Manifold Markets*, which isn't the ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 507.5146023823224, "YES": 512.7428375424226} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1643899442979 | 100 | JiaobeiMandos | 1642269575116 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzoOjPsK1K9is149xWEcETYVuD3NTR_tS5d4aQ0=s96-c | 8 | 1715658342258 | 0 | [{"name": "Self-resolving", "slug": "selfresolving", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "9cUlgUS6fDN3LIyavEam", "createdTime": 1669094106543}] | ["selfresolving"] | 1642275003909 | 0.5051242928176163 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.33204256485274003 | shN1BQgkbiFYx8j64q5E | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.33204256485274003 | should-manifold-markets-implement-t-314f87e589004 | 1333.663727517484 | {"NO": 725.6637275174838, "YES": 606} | Should Manifold Markets implement this feature: Notifications | 1643864399000 | H3KyohhN3TYz7hczLy1XC6JRqFr1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 725.6637275174838, "YES": 606} | 0 | 4.649437118158884 | True | play | NO | public | 1642272817838 | Jiaobei Mandos | I think the highest priority notification would be when one of your markets closes and needs to be resolved, but here are some things you might want to be notified of:
- Comments on one of your markets
- Trades on one of your markets. One notification per trade would probably be too high volume, but there are ways to ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 1170.0796227798219, "YES": 824.969517645765} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1643899459451 | 100 | JiaobeiMandos | 1642272817838 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzoOjPsK1K9is149xWEcETYVuD3NTR_tS5d4aQ0=s96-c | 10 | 1715658789150 | 0 | 1643752695208 | 0.33204256485274003 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.12800381347646184 | a2pufU4hXiyGq6tsVsxm | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0 | will-donald-trump-by-the-president | 60600.107300115196 | {"NO": 28035.152272228002, "YES": 4034.740427656783} | Will Donald Trump by the President of the United States by Feb. 28, 2022? | 1646121599000 | c8b49zncxgUgRdYby9cj9HVQXoj2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 28013, "YES": 4148} | 0 | 6.209948050648268 | True | play | NO | public | 1642286048231 | Dr P | Jan 15, 2:34pm: be* | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 30040.482589640065, "YES": 11509.622152948032} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 94.86832980505137, "YES": 31.622776601683793} | 0 | 1652819107286 | 100 | DrP | 1704343494966 | 0 | 183 | 1650314653139 | 0 | 1 | [] | [] | 1652823134118 | 0.12800381347646184 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3647783630759547 | rU68foE9DivkE8WsjzC7 | {"NO": 1036.5332053214747, "YES": 79282.53141879878} | 0 | will-the-gop-control-the-us-senate | 260863.68259078715 | {"NO": 187.70681418817998, "YES": 454.62023121503546} | Will the GOP control the US Senate in 2023? | 1675227599000 | 080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 205, "YES": 470} | 0 | 0.2544689012803989 | True | basic | NO | public | 1642288375877 | Tom | This will resolve positively if the Senate majority leader is a Republican on February 1, 2023. In unclear cases, this market will resolve the same way as the corresponding Metaculus market https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/gop-controls-us-senate-in-2023/.
#Politics #USCongress #USA | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 386.9512850403288, "YES": 633.4967603253436} | {"creatorFee": 11.963083089204263, "platformFee": 0.15098170768254854, "liquidityFee": 0.5891614991380036} | {"NO": 54.77225575051662, "YES": 83.66600265340756} | 0 | 1675228274316 | 5600.589161499138 | toms | 1675206935410 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyROwZbCmjGRzf3ZLeOX03LPKjQD0KMzh4qmOWA=s96-c | 0 | 442 | 1650314778935 | 0 | 1 | 321 | [{"name": "US 2022 Midterms", "slug": "us-2022-midterms", "userId": "tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3", "groupId": "y2e0hHBab86vdAkUJx9w", "createdTime": 1663337913895}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660053929567... | ["politics-default", "us-2022-elections", "us-politics", "global-macro", "us-2022-midterms"] | 1675206935288 | 1674193184562 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8677977107184259 | xtPMdE35FyiaQDvOMAeV | {"NO": 8115.766578930193, "YES": 533.6038167595879} | 1 | will-the-gop-control-the-us-house-o | 59770.60046882697 | {"NO": 443.9373627266608, "YES": 1881.880817093039} | Will the GOP control the US House of Representatives in 2023? | 1675227599000 | 080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 433, "YES": 1907} | 0 | 0.725827431095071 | True | play | YES | public | 1642288576588 | Tom | This will resolve positively if the House Speaker is a Republican on February 1, 2023. In unclear cases, this market will resolve the same way as the corresponding Metaculus market https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/.
#politics #USCongress #USA | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 981.7956852279157, "YES": 2218.2585678886962} | {"creatorFee": 10.485786781490516, "platformFee": 0.4894272764878282, "liquidityFee": 2.936563658926969} | {"NO": 44.72135954999579, "YES": 89.44271909999159} | 0 | 1675228297826 | 802.936563658927 | toms | 1674976387295 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyROwZbCmjGRzf3ZLeOX03LPKjQD0KMzh4qmOWA=s96-c | 97 | 1650314825714 | 0 | 1 | 86 | [{"name": "US 2022 Midterms", "slug": "us-2022-midterms", "userId": "tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3", "groupId": "y2e0hHBab86vdAkUJx9w", "createdTime": 1663337913892}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660053929565... | ["politics-default", "us-politics", "us-2022-elections", "global-macro", "us-2022-midterms"] | 1674976387183 | 1668120670729 | 0.99 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.05872479249525775 | tjPU8mW958WiDb1x4l67 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.05872479249525775 | will-manifold-implement-demurrage | 425.1628335344069 | {"NO": 396, "YES": 24.8371664655931} | Will Manifold implement demurrage? | 1644559199000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 396, "YES": 25} | 0 | 4.706703051442404 | True | play | NO | public | 1642292000102 | Manifold | Demurrage, or negative interest rates on cash balances, is an experimental idea in economics associated with thinkers like Silvio Gesell that aims to encourage productive spending and discourage hoarding.
In Manifold Markets' current play-money system, a small daily fee on users' uninvested cash balances (equivalent ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 505.31277442787854, "YES": 126.21550606762986} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 92.19544457292888, "YES": 38.72983346207417} | 0 | 1643737261750 | 100 | Manifold | 1642292000102 | 0 | 8 | 1715658819505 | 0 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529576798}] | ["economics-default"] | 1642346319852 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.054223343499154524 | CJIe8v4O8DzlLeikL8gv | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.054223343499154524 | will-manifold-lower-the-starting-ba | 443.6365038416908 | {"NO": 395.1, "YES": 31.263496158309174} | Will Manifold lower the starting balance to M$ 500? | 1643003999000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 395.1, "YES": 29.9} | 0 | 4.705784685828198 | True | play | NO | public | 1642294011527 | Manifold | Manifold Markets currently gives new users M$ 1,000 for signing up. Lowering the starting balance to M$ 500 would
1. Reward our earliest users for signing up first.
2. Make our smallest M$ purchase option (M$ 500 for $5 USD) seem more reasonable.
Resolves YES if Manifold Markets lowers the starting balance for new u... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 511.8940224711223, "YES": 122.56851082693453} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 58.309518948453, "YES": 81.24038404635961} | 0 | 1643071073950 | 100 | Manifold | 1642294011527 | 0 | 11 | 1715657757967 | 0 | 1642945581454 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3656097423287498 | EaxycYOj4SSEUGuqFOJ9 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.3656097423287498 | will-the-kansas-city-chiefs-win-the | 336.6046906901351 | {"NO": 138.3953093098649, "YES": 75} | Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2022 Super Bowl? | 1644728399000 | oWC7OrgMjdZbmKjgk1NsD9hIwar1 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 140, "YES": 75} | 0 | 4.762927210850073 | True | play | NO | public | 1642298599072 | Eric Shen | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 249.61503721596435, "YES": 189.4965780511581} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 83.66600265340756, "YES": 54.77225575051661} | 0 | 1643584674384 | 100 | EricShen | 1642298599072 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjmPJ84YewH_dGsL7Kd-HUGyGG7rWHgPhJKF3iKEQ=s96-c | 6 | 1715657816984 | 0 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529399146}] | ["sports-default"] | 1642301642273 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8547646009204612 | yBMZUf8fxoefhzZ3a8eo | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.8547646009204612 | will-punxsutawney-phil-see-his-shad | 563.9298272423084 | {"NO": 99, "YES": 395.0701727576916} | Will Punxsutawney Phil see his shadow on Groundhog's Day, 2022? | 1643781599000 | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 99, "YES": 400} | 0 | 4.695865466905985 | True | play | YES | public | 1642299096225 | Lars Doucet | Punxsutawney Phil is the name of the Groundhog from Groundhog's day. Every year they bring him out, and legend is if he "see his shadow", then winter will continue for six more weeks.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groundhog_Day
So, when the men in fancy hats bring him out in February, will the little critter "see his... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 226.3987313748431, "YES": 549.2385498052873} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1643940059739 | 100 | LarsDoucet | 1642299096225 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c | 10 | 1715658939303 | 0 | 1642307149546 | 0.8547646009204612 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.432975 | VaDrABlXCydrFwaWa11M | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.432975 | will-punxsutawney-phils-behavior-on | 120 | {"NO": 58, "YES": 42} | Will Punxsutawney Phil's behavior on Groundhog's Day 2022 correctly predict winter's end? | 1648789199000 | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 58, "YES": 42} | 0 | 4.837765190619555 | True | play | YES | public | 1642299208478 | Lars Doucet | If the Groundhog see his shadow, we are supposed to see six more weeks of winter.
If he doesn't see his shadow, spring is supposed to begin soon.
After the Groundhog has made his ruling, will the observed weather patterns be judged by whoever it is that is smart enough to rule on these things to have been correct?
#f... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 150.60212481900777, "YES": 131.6016717219048} | {"creatorFee": 2.32, "platformFee": 0.58, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476} | 0 | 1648792843230 | 100 | LarsDoucet | 1642299208478 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c | 4 | 1715658249144 | 0 | 1 | 1643991339881 | 0.432975 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9816733067729083 | V288UeQ98h4j3KPbceiJ | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.9816733067729083 | will-lewis-hamilton-compete-in-2022 | 345.740208321633 | {"NO": 23.25979167836698, "YES": 231} | Will Lewis Hamilton compete in 2022 F1 Championship? | 1646467199000 | baMnIuzVIrbXmwlHcDCIrJwODfE2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": -2.842170943040401e-14, "YES": 231} | 0 | 4.746973383733703 | True | play | MKT | public | 1642316158729 | PlainBoomerang | The market resolves as Yes if Lewis Hamilton competes in either the first or second race of the season. For context about recent rumors of his quitting F1: https://www.autoweek.com/racing/formula-1/a38770628/lewis-hamilton-strange-silence-quitting-f1/ | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 47.958315233127195, "YES": 350.99857549568486} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 47.958315233127195, "YES": 87.74964387392123} | 0 | 1642895806436 | 100 | PlainBG | 1642316158729 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FPlainBG%2FYbYTECPDi9.13?alt=media&token=e5868d91-74ae-4d99-9370-3ca5e400adab | 1 | 1715658236320 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8598456389590875 | OOADnPjVx51AiDRuwCst | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.8598456389590875 | will-kyrie-irving-play-at-home-in-t | 547 | {"NO": 114, "YES": 391} | Will Kyrie Irving play at home in this regular season? | 1648882799000 | baMnIuzVIrbXmwlHcDCIrJwODfE2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 114, "YES": 391} | 0 | 4.694464257051868 | True | play | YES | public | 1642316535963 | PlainBoomerang | The market resolves as Yes if Kyrie Irving plays in at least one home game in the 2021-2022 regular season. Kyrie is currently banned from playing at Barclays Center due to NYC's vaccine mandate. | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 226.4950330581225, "YES": 561.003565051061} | {"creatorFee": 4.5600000000000005, "platformFee": 1.1400000000000001, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 75.4983443527075, "YES": 65.57438524302} | 0 | 1648921414420 | 100 | PlainBG | 1642316535963 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FPlainBG%2FYbYTECPDi9.13?alt=media&token=e5868d91-74ae-4d99-9370-3ca5e400adab | 3 | 1715658077496 | 0 | 1 | 0.8598456389590875 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8666666666666667 | Eiee2FHa0Ze4LCDbVuMo | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.8666666666666667 | will-australia-win-the-5th-ashes-te | 200 | {"NO": 30.000000000000004, "YES": 170} | Will Australia win the 5th Ashes test against England? | 1642435199000 | fcqpdK3ulKWE6MNyEmYhYZi6SmK2 | cpmm-1 | {"NO": 30.000000000000004, "YES": 170} | 0 | 4.769033469340642 | True | play | YES | public | 1642323774635 | Andrew Benn | (cricket) | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"NO": 109.54451150103321, "YES": 279.28480087537883} | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | {"NO": 54.77225575051662, "YES": 83.66600265340756} | 0 | 1642332725877 | 100 | AndrewBenn | 1642323774635 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjWCCcB6z5u33HaiXeGfWAV1Lgu9yVOUSLxjldRTw=s96-c | 2 | 1715657824365 | 0 | [{"name": "Australia", "slug": "australia", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "HSXQIPdSZj3T5sj9vo46", "createdTime": 1661648112331}] | ["australia"] |
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