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9b7ebcd48d038c44be0f5569518726f3
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OK. And then just lastly on claims trends. How much of a risk do you feel there is of an uptick in claims given the strengthening labor market? And just sort of if you're seeing tight supply, I believe, of workers and if that could drive an uptick in losses.
|
Our insureds are not as impacted by some of the industries that are having trouble finding workers right now. So far, we haven't seen any -- we certainly haven't seen -- we've seen expanding payrolls if anything. And we haven't seen any concerns in the claims area due to worker shortage or to workers not being as trained as well as they should be. It's early though, Jimmy. That's just such a new thing that it would be much too soon for us to see something in the claims area to comment beyond that.
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intermediate
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B
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34bda274b6313d9509c6fb0dcaffa1f8
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Thanks. Good afternoon. First question is on the gross written premium, the 36% growth in the quarter. Can you help us unpack that a little bit? And if you can give any color around how much ballpark of that growth might have been driven by some of the newer partner additions? I think, Julie, you mentioned the nine partners that were added during 2020. And how much of that growth might be kind of some more longer-standing relationships that have been there for a while?
|
Sure. So our new programs represented about 16% of the total gross written premium in the first quarter of 2021. And then on our -- and then our organic growth on our owned programs was about 4.6% and organic growth on our existing program -- partners is about 33%.
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ecc7f298127522fac9e8d1f1c7fc5cb0
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Got it. OK. Great. Thank you. That's helpful. And then just a numbers question. When I look at the net-to-gross retention, it's inching up as we'd expect given your selective retention of more risk. How should we view that 32% in the quarter? Is that ballpark a level that we should stabilize at in the near term? Or should we expect that to continue to drift up as we move forward throughout the year?
|
You know, Matt, it's a little hard to say with the mix of the business, if we have a little more growth on a program that we have a lower retention on or want to have a higher retention. I think that's probably not a bad place to start.
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384ea8b04a06dbb5725358aa39b92e2e
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Hi. Thanks. Good afternoon. I had a question just on the expenses, the G&A expenses. Understand you expect those to remain elevated throughout the course -- the rest of the course of the year. Should I take that to mean that we should expect them to come in and around that $12 million a quarter-ish type of level? Or maybe if you could provide some commentary around that.
|
It's a good run rate as of now. Like Andy and Julie said, we're going to be investing, and we'll temper that with any actual cash outlays for expenses. Some of that will be capitalized in the areas of software development that we are starting to get involved with over the course of this year. But I think that's a good run rate, for now, to think about going forward until we start to see something different.
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a31dff947541d4e087826661b9ba8c30
|
Got it. Thanks. That's helpful. And then, Andy, I guess, just sort of a higher-level question, just on the growth and the non-comp liability lines. Obviously, the market has been hardening in some of those lines, but there's also a little bit of uncertainty there as well. So I'm wondering just sort of how you're thinking about growing in those lines. I'm assuming it's -- I think a lot of it is general liability, but maybe you can also give us a bit more detail on what specifically it is that's driving that growth.
|
Sure. We have added a number of new programs outside of workers' comp. In fact, Matt, most of the programs that we've seen this past quarter have been outside of workers' comp, which I think is a sign that that market is tighter than the workers' comp market. We've added programs in property and commercial auto and accident health. Those are the three lines that we've added. And we've done that because, first, the programs have met our criteria. They've been excellent programs with operators who have proven track records. Second, these are people who are really getting significant rate increases, which, of course, is a very positive. Now, our approach with these programs is the same as we've discussed previously, which is that we're taking a very low net retention at the outset. I think for all of our programs, particularly those -- of all the programs that we've added over this past quarter and really the last year, we're only retaining something like 8% to 9% of the business that these partners are writing. And that's pursuant with our conservative approach toward assuming underwriting risk at the outset of a program. Should these programs continue to develop well, I could see us taking larger participation.
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c792f831134be80903b273d1676aa355
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Got it. That's helpful. Yes. So just -- and then I guess, just because of the low retention, that helps you get comfort. And then I guess we should relatedly -- I guess it doesn't feel like there should be a big change in sort of the loss ratio just from a change in the mix of business shifting away from workers' comp to some of these other lines, but wondering if maybe you comment on that.
|
Yeah, I can. Because our risk retention is so small in these other lines of business, it would be very difficult for them to have any kind of meaningful impact on our loss ratio. Now, if that business continues to grow and continues to become a larger part of our book, then certainly, that statement would change. But as of right now, we're just not anticipating that these other lines are going to materially impact our loss ratio.
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c9fab76a2cd08b96c804a162ba7659e8
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Hey, guys. So in light of this large buyback and return of capital to shareholders, I think you said $50 million reauthorized on the buyback authorization for the rest of the year, at least through the rest of the calendar year. How do you think about how aggressive you will be in terms of timing of using that and to what extent you using will be just dependent on the path of the share price and sort of how do you think about that reauthorization of the buyback in light of the change in circumstances, with this big chunk of cash being used right up front for this tender offer?
|
Thanks for the question, Sean. No, it's there -- it's there. It will remain as an authorization, and it will be, as before, evaluated on taking all that into consideration, the -- including the price, including the success, hopefully, of the tender and the market -- the frame [Phonetic].
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intermediate
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8311abc0acc6c28656da80afabea258c
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Okay. And then, I got one here for Tim, regarding the PEMEC now. You talked about this utilization spike between the LPG vessels, LNG vessels, and containerships, do we see this as kind of a seasonal uptick or a one-time event, or is this sort of a new normal, where all three of these vessel categories are using the Panama Canal to an extent that it's going to become sort of capacity-constrained on an ongoing basis?
|
Yeah, I think there are some seasonality in it, there naturally, but container ships especially have increased throughout the year by I think 90-plus more passages than the year before, and we see more container ships being fitted for the Panama and more lines going in that direction. So I think that's more on a continuous basis. We have seen dry cargo, for example, increase quite substantially, which has been -- which we expect to be somewhat seasonal due to the cold winter in Asia and lack of -- types of coal origins [Phonetic] in South America. And LNG also is somewhat seasonal, but we have seen an increase in transit throughout the year, but especially this cold spell like that we have in Asia, and which still is in Asia has drawn a lot more LNG in that direction. But totally, we are seeing like the increase of passages in the Canal by more than 200 transits since 2019 and in 2020.
So overall, we believe that there will be more, let's say, delays in the Panama Canal, but it will also have some seasonality swings.
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A
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747be3fec3209f17879bbcb9672d22b5
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Okay. And so in light of that, as you're managing the Dorian fleet, has that resulted in Dorian just waiting at the Panama Canal longer along with a lot of other global players, or are you actually having to send ships around the long way around Africa from like the US Gulf to Asia?
|
We are sending ships around the Cape, I think -- especially as the delays in the Panama Canal surge up to 12 days to 14 days, the economics actually from [Indecipherable] port to the canal and waiting for that long justify in sending ships around the Cape, even from the north part of Asia, and still we are seeing eight days to 10 days delays. So maybe the inflection point moved a little bit suddenly, but yeah, we will send ships in that direction, more because these delays also surge quite a lot, and it makes it hard to plan the next cargoes.
And to say, also, we have some Panama slots booked throughout the year, so we can schedule around those. But as you saw on New Year's Eve, the Panama Canal has changed the regulations for pre-booking of Panama slots. So that is no longer possible to -- for LPG carriers to pre-book slots. So, from 2021 -- 2022 onwards, sorry. So, that will also change, again, the dynamics of the Panama Canal transits in the future.
[Speech Overlap] This year there is a number of players who have [Speech Overlap]
Yeah, yeah, Sean, you can do -- that obviously has a positive effect on miles. So it's --
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520d81f54aaee072dee6e295820820d2
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The -- obviously just wanted to, you know, clearly, the $100 million self-tender offer is clearly the most aggressive shareholder reward program you guys have done since being public, and with the firepower you have, the earnings momentum, and clearly the valuation, it makes a lot of sense.
I wanted to ask, with that, how do you feel about reinvesting in the business? Clearly, the market has become, or at least, it appears to be very tight over the past, call it, a year, two years aside from the Covid window there that lasted a couple of months.
Do you feel that the market is short on vessels? Clearly, there is some of that, but how do you feel about your positioning? Do you think it makes sense to grow or are you more content with return on capital?
|
Omar, we're not, we're not -- we're not excluding growth but we are focused first on returns. At this stage, the -- the -- it is much more compelling to do, to return money to our shareholders than it is to acquire ships. That's sort of a very precise and concise answer to your question, I think.
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5835335fa6fc50f8f9a0f84811d8f242
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Yeah, no, that's fair. And you know the -- maybe just thinking about the spot market, it's been fairly robust and we haven't really seen much time charter activity, I think, maybe from my perspective. Is that the case? That's how you see it? Or do you see the period market opening up or -- because I know in the past you've been more willing to put vessels on contract, but we haven't really seen that the past several quarters? How can you describe the period market right now?
|
Okay. Yeah, I think we have seen some activity in October, November for shorter-term time charter, so one year to two years. I think, still for the longer-term deals, that has been very limited. I think people is also looking ahead of what types of ships and what will the regulations, and so on, encompass. But what's long-term before we saw the spike or the beginning of the spike, we did see quite a lot of renewals of ships which for one year to two year, which is normal for that time of year. So where -- yeah, all the contracts would come into renewal. I think, also, we saw very difficult product market just meeting upto fourth quarter, kind of the quarter. So, at that time, most traders looks very, very cautious of committing to anything. So that might have been the reason for you're seeing a little bit less activity in that front than previous years.
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ff58c3b1ea004e991de61485fe034b2d
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Thank you. And then, just maybe -- just on maybe the topic of US exports. You touched on this a bit in the opening comments. This -- trying to think about it from, say, what happened this past summer when the VLGC market came to life after the spring shutdown, and things started to come to life, despite the OPEC plus cuts or the Middle East cut, and the US made for a lot of those lost volumes, and you really grabbed some market share and that kind of sprung VLGCs to higher levels. You know, with the Saudis now talking about taking off a million barrels of crude, here in February, and again in March. Could you see a similar situation rising? That being a loss of Middle East cargos being replaced with the US?
|
Yeah, I mean, yeah, I think we could see something similar where the demand in the east is really -- is still there, so certainly enough, no appetite of the tons there they're there. So, when tons are -- when we're seeing export cuts out of the Middle East, we expect them to be replaced by US, and also on the back of we should see improved oil price, and thereby, making fracking more attractive in the US as well. And we see -- we also saw this earlier in the year that when tons are lacking, then basically, the chance that that could go into naphtha cracking will then go into the order demand in Asia. So, we think -- we see the cut will solve these -- that these trends will be replaced and will be replaced in the East by US tons which should get more ton-miles as well or will give more ton-miles as well, yeah.
Yeah, I think the dynamic of the increased ton-mile from that and from the Canal has been very helpful. So, we've seen continued volatility in this year, we've got to be thankful for it, because even though, the volatility took us down to breakeven early last year, it bought us up to wonderful returns at the end of the year. Now, the market's rolled off again, but on average I think probably we would be -- we would be looking at prospects that are better even than we had anticipated last year so -- for -- going forward, so.
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7f6c80140df58cd502fac5fe2600c2ab
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Yeah. Yeah, agree with that, definitely. And maybe, John, just one final -- one final question. And I've asked you this before on calls, and you've been pretty firm with the response, but how do you feel about investing in newbuildings today? Are there customers requesting that of you?
|
So, no, we haven't seen that yet. And I do think the newbuilding market is getting to an inflection point where I think that the prices have been either sliding or steady for a long time. And the next-the next move will be up, but -- but I thought I saw that before. So, I don't think there is a rush to do anything, certainly not for us. And certainly enough, for the rest of the market -- we can handle -- the fleet can handle the demand that's there and it's a challenge going forward for not just our sector but all sectors to know what kind of fuel mix to put into future when you're designing and building ships for the future.
In our case, in the LPG business, it's a bit easier because the obvious answer would be LPG has a dual fuel. But we do look at it, we continue to look at it, but we're not there yet. We have -- and as I said before, we're prioritizing return to shareholders, and at the prices -- at a price of our stock, we continue to think the best way to do it is by what we've done, we've announced today.
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8ad52172aa41a7fff3f21bf242b920f3
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Hey, Nabil, Ali the way to think about direct-to-consumer rental from 1Q to 2Q, is that sequentially the patient population increases by X amount in addition to a 5% or 10% increase in reimbursement?
|
Yeah, that's correct. So you will see going into Q2, we do expect our patient population or rental patients on service to continue to increase and we would also expect to see that 5% to 10% increase in rates on the portion of the bids that is Medicare related, which is about 75%, 80% of that total pool.
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b43074c57281ed71a4981881717729cb
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And given it's a renewed focus on this part of the business, how should we be thinking about the seasonality of the rental fleet from 1Q to 2Q to 3Q and through the course of the year?
|
One of the great things about the rental business is that you don't see as much seasonality that you see in the cash business, because you have underlying patient demand and if patients want to convert to POCs and meet our coverage criteria, they really want to do that year round. What is difference in the rental fleet in terms of net patients added in a given period is there is seasonality around unfortunately patient's death and then also patient changes in insurance.
So we tend to see a higher number of patients coming off service in the fourth quarter and in the first quarter of any given year than you see in the second quarter or the third quarter. So if you look at our patient addition -- our net patient additions in the period, those tend to be stronger in the second and third quarter versus the fourth quarter or the first quarter. So hopefully that's helpful, and then of course it comes down to how much sales capacity do we have, how many referrals are we driving in a specific area.
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fbd43b6fde0cc0ca64fecc608a49d6ca
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Okay, that is helpful. And then on the direct-to-consumer sales, it sounds as if there are certain metrics that are leading you to believe that there is increasing momentum there, but on the same token you're not able to hire the right kind of inside sales people at this point in time or not able to find them, are you losing sales or is it just putting the sales off by about a quarter or so?
|
So in terms of the factors that we're seeing, as you said, we are seeing positive indicators that there is increasing patient interest in purchasing the product versus what we saw as dampened demand associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. So we are glad to see those improvements in those key metrics that we look at for the D2C business. And as you mentioned the challenges that we've really seen on the hiring side have also made it difficult for us to show growth in that channel in the year-over-year comparison in the first quarter.
Now going forward, in spite of that, we do expect to get back to growth in that channel in the remaining quarters of the year because of the improvements that we've seen in overall demand for the product. So we do see that as a positive and we do hope to hire more reps, but we are cautious on that front, because it has been a challenge to hire and train people in this period of a pandemic. So the number of sales reps, I don't think our attrition has changed significantly from historical levels, but our ability to replace the attrition with new sales reps has slowed.
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b25180f82eb42e9a29b7abcb6468ac20
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Okay. And then just last question, I'm sorry for asking too many, 2Q versus 1Q, 1Q you had a bolus of B2B domestic sales, do you think that overall 2Q sales given the momentum you're seeing are above 1Q?
|
Yeah, great question and I do expect Q2 2021 to be up from the first quarter of 2021 on a sequential basis in total revenue. I think there may be some moving parts within the various buckets, but we are seeing more of that historic seasonality that we've seen where direct-to-consumer demand in stronger in the second quarter than it's been in the first quarter. Obviously, we've seen some increasing demand in some areas hit hard by COVID that also should impact the the second quarter. And of course, as we said in our prepared remarks we expect rental revenue to have highest growth as a percent of last year's second quarter results. So we do see positive trends in the business and do expect to see a sequential increase in the second quarter over the first quarter of 2020.
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1e380f54cffb943227edbe1e06198b51
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Hey, good afternoon everyone, thanks for taking the questions. So I'd love to push you a little bit on guidance for '21. I know you're not keeping it, but I'll do my best to see what we can get out of you. So given the demand we've seen in Q1 if we apply kind of the traditional seasonality metrics we've seen in the past that brings our full-year number for '21 to $360 million or more. Now I understand there's a lot of moving pieces. We don't really know what's going to happen in a variety of areas, but maybe more specifically, why wouldn't D2C do as well seasonally as it has done in past years, especially given some latent demand, extra travel and so on? And then shouldn't we also see travel POCs increase in the DME channel hoping support kind of in that B2B domestic growth?
|
Yeah, so I can take that question. And certainly, we've seen positive trends. I mean, our numbers that we saw in March were certainly an improvement and more in line with past seasonality pattern. So that is a positive sign, but this is only a couple of months in now with March and April really behind us and seeing that. So we want to get a little farther into the year and make sure that it's sustainable and that this is not just pent-up demand that we're seeing in the D2C channel, but that it's really something that we can predict going forward.
But you're right, so initial indications are certainly positive for us. I know everybody would love for us to reinstate guidance, but we want to make sure that when we reinstate guidance that we have the proper visibility to put a number out there that is an achievable number, a beatable number and that number we have high confidence in from a predictability standpoint. In addition, we just hired a new Chief Commercial Officer who just started less than a month ago. And so we want to make sure that the entire management team is up to speed and aligned on our priorities, both short-term and long-term and has the same level of visibility and confidence in those results before we put guidance out there. But the initial indicators that we are seeing in the market recovery seems to be positive and we also need to make sure that we can continue to maintain the base of sales reps to fill that capacity.
Now, on your question on the consumer demand through our B2B accounts, they throughout the whole pandemic have really mimicked what we've seen in our direct-to-consumer business, including in the first quarter. So I don't see their trend substantially different from ours. And so as a result, I would expect given the easier comps them to also show growth in the second quarter versus the year-over-year and kind of that return to growth. So they have slightly different dynamic, but in end, they are also tracking consumer demand for POC.
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Okay. I've got that -- a follow-up to that and one if can on the '22 in the long-term. So just as a follow-up to your comments on D&A and kind of the sequential increases potentially into Q2 and throughout the year. How big was hospital in the first quarter? Because it sounded like maybe you were seeing some excess demand associated with that that might make it smidge different. Yeah, I mean, I know international is tough to gauge, but any color there? And then, the question on '22 after that.
|
Yeah. So Margaret, we would love to be able to answer the question on hospital demand specific to the first quarter. It's very challenging for us to answer that question because the demand is tied to the same customers. So we weren't selling to hospitals directly in the first quarter, we were selling to all of our same customer base and they were telling us that they were using a portion of that demand for COVID patients that were being discharged on POCs. So, unfortunately, we can't break that out specifically outside of just looking at the trends and trying to do our own estimates. But we don't have a hard number of how much was specifically tied to that.
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31f5daf2214e457ce08fad75f9f05569
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Okay, fair enough. And then, I think the big question that I get and I think a lot of other people get is kind of a long-term profile post-COVID and whenever that happens, if it's '22 or beyond, but how do you guys -- Nabil and the team, how do you guys view that growth profile? And as we go through this year over the next four quarters, what are those fundamental indicators that you look forward to say, you know what, I feel very confident about be it mid-single, high-single-digit or double-digit and beyond for growth? Thanks.
|
So, Margaret, I'll take that one. We see ourselves returning to double-digit growth, but not guiding anything beyond that, but we believe that the indicators so far that we've seen in terms of the recovery, in terms of what we're putting in place could get us back to that double-digit space that we are aspiring for in terms of -- in 2022 moving forward.
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b4285e13e3637daedfe1283d478def6c
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Hi, this is actually Lilly on for Robbie. Thanks for taking the question. So I was hoping you could just give a little bit of color on what you're seeing in different geographies, obviously, things are very different in Europe than they are in the U.S. right now. So yeah, any color you'd be willing to give on how the recovery has trended U.S. versus O-U.S. would be helpful.
|
I'll take that one. So, definitely, we are seeing a recovery, which is a little bit stronger in the U.S. and is directly related as we all know to the higher vaccination rates, even though we see them now fluctuating a little bit back and forth in terms of the hesitancy for people to vaccinate. But that's a very different picture in terms of the mobility that this is creating in the U.S. and the demand for travel as well as general mobility versus Europe as an example. And there is still a little bit of a lockdown approach to think in the major geographies that we operate in be it in France and/or in other Continental European countries.
As you also know in Latin America, things are very buyer in terms of what's happening in Brazil as well as other countries. So definitely, the leading indicator in the U.S. is leading in nature and apply to the rest of the geographies. But we expect over time as maybe help in terms of vaccination rates starts flowing through the other market that we see a similar trend to what we're seeing in the U.S.
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8bebefdc2f2d6e2f25321fd95c159305
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Great, thank you. And then, just one quick follow-up. Just how should we be thinking about opex spend over the course of the year as recovery continues to play out, in particular ad spend considering DTC is still depressed? Thanks.
|
Yeah, sure. So we're proud of what we accomplished in the first quarter in terms of reducing our advertising spend. We do expect advertising spend to increase in the second quarter through the fourth quarter, as we do see an opportunity for us to spend more and have higher revenue associated with it in the direct-to-consumer channel. So we are moving back toward that model versus what we started really in the second quarter of last year to reduce advertising expense to try and minimize our operating expenses with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. So I would expect that to increase going forward, but also to see a return of the revenue generation associated with that higher level of spend.
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e806381add83054cd057e56e97c0898f
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Yeah, thanks for taking my questions. Just want to ask one on the pipeline. I don't know if you're willing to give any updates there, but it has been a couple of years since we've seen a new POC. So wondering, if you have anything new coming there. Just wondering, if you could give us an update on the effort to integrate the new era technology into your POCs?
|
Yeah, I think, Mike, for the question. We are actively working on a variety of R&D projects. But we for competitive purposes really aren't going to be speaking about the specific specs until we're ready to launch those products. So just like we've done historically, we want to keep those pretty tight to the vest until we're ready to launch. But as you can see from our financials, we're continuing to invest heavily in R&D and our focus and goal is to stay the innovation leader in oxygen therapy with the best in class POC, but also expand into new era -- into new areas, like with the New Aera Technology and that work is still ongoing.
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5227f5cb0520fd90c0d1f6d13d522203
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Okay, thanks. And then, have you seen any sort of response from any of your larger B2B customers as you're increasingly focusing on your rental business? Or are you worried about that at all?
|
Certainly, it's something that we work with the accounts that are partners to us. We have strong relationships with a variety of HMEs and we think that that's really important as well and the work that we're doing here is meant to supplement the work that they're doing to convert their fleet and set up new patients on oxygen therapy. So we haven't seen a negative response associated with that, I'd still say that when we look at our 35,000 -- almost 35,000 oxygen patients on service versus our estimates of 3 million oxygen patients in the U.S., we're still a very small fraction of the total market. So while we continue to expand our rental base and have seen great success there, we also have seen our partners continuing to focus on their conversion and we have not seen any negative repercussions from any large major account associated with that.
So Mike, I will add that, we should never expect attention to go away, our intent is to make it a productive healthy attention and our focus is on developing the market like we've commented many times before, which will help all of us benefit from the penetration of the POC modality and it's the health attention that I referred to is up to every participant to take as much of the upside as they can. And I think, in general, this is something that they've learned to live with and we've learned to live with as we continue to manage in a very collaborative manner.
|
direct
|
[
"direct",
"intermediate",
"fully_evasive"
] |
A
|
a6a81a8b2496b1c909ae25704daae48d
|
Okay, thanks. And then, just wondering if you could give us an update on the pulmonology sales force. How big is that if you're willing to give those numbers or as like it's at the end of the year, last year? And then how you talked about productivity of your inside sales force. I don't know if you have any way to kind of measure the productivity of these reps or consider coming from their physicians that they're calling on.
|
Yeah. So Mike, we're at 24 and the intention is to continue to hire very selectively because these are very unique profiles in terms of clinical selling and the ability to develop the market. The -- to the question around productivity, the one thing I can say is despite the fact that there is a lower percentage of tenured people on the total sales force today, we have seen the double-digit improvement in terms of their productivity compared to last year, which is very encouraging. So we're on the right track heading to the right place with them.
|
intermediate
|
[
"direct",
"intermediate",
"fully_evasive"
] |
B
|
36767c03b666b6a7ed3eff54e9152cc0
|
Hi, this is actually Rebecca Wang, I'm for Danielle. A question on your commercial strategy, you guys hired a new Chief Commercial Officer, how does this change your company's commercial strategy overall? And where do you see opportunity for him to have the most impact in the next few year -- few months? Thank you.
|
Yeah, so the Chief Commercial Officer as part of the management team, definitely is going to participate on the two biggest levers of growth, on the portfolio side and strategy as well as on the go-to-market. So on the portfolio the close partnership with R&D and engineering to make sure that we are actually making sure that the portfolio is directed toward where the biggest growth areas are and the differentiation that we aspire for all the time is one of the areas of the intervention. And on the other side in the go-to-market strategy, in terms of increase in both the productivity and efficiency of our sales and marketing spend and efforts is one of the critical areas.
Also additionally, as we know this is the service business. So looking into things around the customer experience and the patient's experience in terms of them getting on therapy and then staying on that therapy is one of the areas that the person would be looking at and George Parr will be focused on all of the things that I just mentioned.
|
direct
|
[
"direct",
"intermediate",
"fully_evasive"
] |
A
|
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