Dataset Viewer
Auto-converted to Parquet Duplicate
id
stringlengths
8
13
isApi
bool
2 classes
userId
stringlengths
28
28
content
dict
userName
stringlengths
1
30
contractId
stringlengths
9
20
visibility
stringclasses
2 values
commentType
stringclasses
1 value
createdTime
int64
1,716B
1,720B
contractSlug
stringlengths
5
48
userUsername
stringlengths
1
25
userAvatarUrl
stringlengths
50
1.03k
contractQuestion
stringlengths
2
240
replyToCommentId
stringlengths
8
20
commentorPositionProb
float64
0
50
commentorPositionShares
float64
-0
6.25M
commentorPositionOutcome
stringclasses
2 values
commentorPositionAnswerId
stringlengths
9
12
qzthmn15czi
false
JCN5ptf5GGdFaakgcnJ4TPZa0no2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "p0hgx2lvsfe", "label": "MugaSofer", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
gpt_news_headlines
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
public
contract
1,716,210,353,381
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
gpt_news_headlines
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fgpt_news_headlines%2FkldFg_g8xa.07?alt=media&token=18eba95e-67d2-4e1f-9539-5d194eb20ba1
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
q49xthsaxq
0.697633
1,484.804589
YES
null
rogvpqyi3z
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "wvt5tenghc", "label": "MartinModrak", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" } ...
Bayesian
pYt4bP3lsTeazpY0rNSl
public
contract
1,716,210,384,763
bayesian-change-my-mind-megamarket
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…a41-dbd2866cd47c
Change My Mind - @Bayesian's Megamarket
afxq2u2if6a
null
null
null
null
3fmr2nwwyis
false
91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Should resolve Yes. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruce
8buA67Dx6izur1MmnBIZ
public
contract
1,716,210,454,503
will-bill-belichick-get-a-tv-gig-be
Bruce54df
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJohJG8pV6APMRLAdPO5Up_LhSInhyxI1tRfhbmvspk=s96-c
Will Bill Belichick get a TV gig before the end of the 2024/25 NFL season?
null
0.916664
304.170709
YES
null
27wj27ma0pr
false
2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "1weu9365xi1", "label": "KongoLandwalker", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" },...
Gabrielle
4aAMke4qGV8p8jTPSYPC
public
contract
1,716,210,701,069
will-manifold-implement-na-shares-b
Gabrielle
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwDJ6ZAXuT68UTfLZc5MRPR4vCxG04pHEyT4wDr=s96-c
Will Manifold implement N/A shares before September 1?
1weu9365xi1
null
null
null
null
rmwkr30bto
false
aLcMG0Cj63WLil96xiNOksVffg12
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I can’t believe that bloated idiot is still popular.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs"...
Tricky Duck
KB20XEhjjHdpOu1smsBN
public
contract
1,716,210,776,892
will-the-grimace-shake-return-to-mc-acfe4e36daed
TrickyDuck
https://firebasestorage.…b03-a48bf6d36fa7
Will the Grimace shake return to McDonald's in the United States in 2025?
null
null
null
null
null
ru25fd02c3
false
yTue1A3ApPhtq3tYKBY2vxEEvG52
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "lang...
Paper Boy
CKCFfI7Hj9eBqRoitwre
public
contract
1,716,210,844,892
which-of-these-ncaa-conferences-wil
PaperBoy
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKvvIqQ7wel-RMQneP56-S8xiaR9D7ojtRAVjiR78e5gg=s96-c
Which of these NCAA Conferences will have the most football teams on Jan. 1st 2027?
null
null
null
null
null
im3r0xtxhv
false
yTue1A3ApPhtq3tYKBY2vxEEvG52
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "lang...
Paper Boy
12n2puETafXcKHHEBXSZ
public
contract
1,716,210,886,242
which-team-will-win-the-202425-ncaa
PaperBoy
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKvvIqQ7wel-RMQneP56-S8xiaR9D7ojtRAVjiR78e5gg=s96-c
Which team will win the 2024/25 NCAA College Football Playoff National Championship?
null
null
119.79965
NO
42f22e6bc160
fjtizsrnzad
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "A downside of this however is that users can be extra incentivized to mak...
Bruno
4aAMke4qGV8p8jTPSYPC
public
contract
1,716,210,997,013
will-manifold-implement-na-shares-b
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Will Manifold implement N/A shares before September 1?
null
null
null
null
null
c9jxpj94m7d
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Mr Assange, who is currently in Belmarsh Prison, will now have a number of months to prepare his appeal, which will concern whether or not the US court...
Christopher Randles
chJvLeJNWJtaCL0xlPAO
public
contract
1,716,211,452,505
will-julian-assange-be-extradited-t-cd597d116012
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
Will Julian Assange be extradited to the United States before July 4th 2025?
null
0.210682
358.633375
NO
null
741gk0bigmc
false
4b0RiIt9EjV7e5QE5Ez9KG9wkym1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Still hasn't exploded yet", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Crazypedia
QABdtevzcPVUL8rGCizY
public
contract
1,716,211,732,191
what-week-will-t-coronae-borealis-t
Crazypedia
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ALV-UjUmHz2zj3_S0O9iKoI01CyGHSHyupPC4TMhTGNA4Jqp2JUM2Lw-z5x6oQVygXoqEZShQ-348ig6wZmOy3FKhw2xFW6xIgQR3snSkRuJnnG9qXQ6ee0Dm_bk2dObzPevwcmqXbk4gykaWW9bpXT7E3dFMYlPH7z9fpjgzQZkmlzKzUrKp8PES1ZNTeBzNcnRSkO_-pTI2B-HXzU3SiP-m_lDVj9TTYKBwP8eb352F2TVmh_qUvzkVmCtEnyITahN-YeNdjtYkuBWo6kas20l5AI...
What week will T Coronae Borealis (T CrB) go nova this year, creating a new 'star' in the night sky?
null
null
824.983037
YES
348e092b4eda
fp7ve47rya9
false
P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "rogvpqyi3z", "label": "Bayesian", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" } ],...
Martin Modrák
pYt4bP3lsTeazpY0rNSl
public
contract
1,716,211,748,625
bayesian-change-my-mind-megamarket
MartinModrak
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7HFP_PK_TNWTfx75ktiZyS7SJm0vXCF_lL54T-BA=s96-c
Change My Mind - @Bayesian's Megamarket
afxq2u2if6a
null
5.032112
YES
b7d9c4a65446
wp0usai32gk
false
vMsWLvZrq4eLI1g13dD53Evifg93
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Either candidate in Vibrams will result in n/a, also nightmares.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "...
ii
piPbVHoSFZx26pGtF36U
public
contract
1,716,211,868,513
what-will-happen-during-the-2024-pr
i_i
https://firebasestorage.…3fc-c02812f05680
What will happen during the 2024 Presidential debate? (Add your answer)
null
null
null
null
null
r8wuff6pyp
false
aLcMG0Cj63WLil96xiNOksVffg12
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Still at 17. May be hard to hit 20 before Starship launches because people need Prize Points after the pivot to donate. ", "type": "text" ...
Tricky Duck
sThSq1dHmaqcwZ6fEPoI
public
contract
1,716,211,926,132
can-we-explore-space-and-solve-prob
TrickyDuck
https://firebasestorage.…b03-a48bf6d36fa7
Can we explore space and solve problems on Earth at the same time?
null
null
null
null
null
uu1qjz6wty
false
sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "3fmr2nwwyis", "label": "Bruce54df", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
The Official
8buA67Dx6izur1MmnBIZ
public
contract
1,716,211,941,498
will-bill-belichick-get-a-tv-gig-be
10thOfficial
https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96
Will Bill Belichick get a TV gig before the end of the 2024/25 NFL season?
3fmr2nwwyis
0.945478
168.682062
YES
null
rx2y2lqx2ok
false
aLcMG0Cj63WLil96xiNOksVffg12
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "New season will be released in August. A “Cocaine Beorn” episode is currently rated as most likely.", "type": "text" } ], ...
Tricky Duck
3Mfh4OUEs2teq2FUvIXe
public
contract
1,716,212,174,608
in-rings-of-power-season-2-which-of
TrickyDuck
https://firebasestorage.…b03-a48bf6d36fa7
In Rings of Power season 2, which of the following rumors will be true?
null
null
null
null
null
lymbrel2efb
false
St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "n1zddcxo3ho", "label": "AbilAbraham2816", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" },...
DismalScientist
Jj5MTXSjQY9FMXEauHdA
public
contract
1,716,212,248,403
will-there-be-a-second-season-of-mr
DismalScientist
https://firebasestorage.…b16-0ce5136b681e
Will there be a second season of Mr. and Mrs. Smith (TV series)?
div20zeeogd
null
null
null
null
hofqn3ff49f
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "fp7ve47rya9", "label": "MartinModrak", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Bayesian
pYt4bP3lsTeazpY0rNSl
public
contract
1,716,213,122,202
bayesian-change-my-mind-megamarket
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…a41-dbd2866cd47c
Change My Mind - @Bayesian's Megamarket
afxq2u2if6a
null
null
null
null
hdcrly1pw3c
false
91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "uu1qjz6wty", "label": "10thOfficial", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Bruce
8buA67Dx6izur1MmnBIZ
public
contract
1,716,213,146,726
will-bill-belichick-get-a-tv-gig-be
Bruce54df
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJohJG8pV6APMRLAdPO5Up_LhSInhyxI1tRfhbmvspk=s96-c
Will Bill Belichick get a TV gig before the end of the 2024/25 NFL season?
3fmr2nwwyis
0.99
304.170709
YES
null
5f09484clig
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "zlk4hjornys", "label": "JamesF", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Christopher Randles
1WQMKPMWtEk8PQOKFDVs
public
contract
1,716,213,479,762
will-there-be-a-hurricane-in-the-at
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
Will the first hurricane of the 2024 season be in the Atlantic or Pacific
5672j8erke3
null
null
null
null
2duij60d7wm
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "mx6qyazkynq", "label": "RyanCarey", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
stefanie
zUgdc9H0H9xjnEjfiCuu
public
contract
1,716,213,521,808
what-will-be-true-of-ilya-sutskever-34a0d3177ddc
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
What will be true of Ilya Sutskever's 'next project'? (add answers)
mx6qyazkynq
null
10.343747
YES
2880fba4ad84
xd3iv8hvia
false
epZdM9Pyw0PrreR6k0SVTm9AD3Q2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xn607pjt5po", "label": "Fedor", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
Anisha Zaveri
ISAYCjIc3XjsVRA6OkKS
public
contract
1,716,213,543,293
what-will-be-true-of-the-monaco-gp
AnishaZaveri
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp4Sf3T4r685ODul8z1TTPEbpE9hFgu2PJSzpZPj=s96-c
What will be true of the Monaco GP weekend?
xn607pjt5po
null
null
null
null
p3pe03imfea
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
chris (strutheo)
yCmGO6lTmqjLd8wrVGaa
public
contract
1,716,213,618,723
will-red-lobster-file-for-bankruptc-c60d3967f150
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Red Lobster file for bankruptcy protection by June 1st 2024?
null
0.51
980.936259
YES
null
j2ua9t1zcng
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves yes ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { ...
chris (strutheo)
yCmGO6lTmqjLd8wrVGaa
public
contract
1,716,213,701,838
will-red-lobster-file-for-bankruptc-c60d3967f150
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Red Lobster file for bankruptcy protection by June 1st 2024?
null
0.51
980.936259
YES
null
bcsi7752mvm
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "bump", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
RLIrcGWRup1iIc74ritL
public
contract
1,716,214,044,883
will-trump-be-found-guilty-of-at-le-f35eac5b4469
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Trump be found guilty of at least 10 of the 34 felony counts against him in the NY Stormy Daniels hush money trial?
null
null
null
null
null
eii6z9ubwf8
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Arbitrage possibility:", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, ...
Christopher Randles
DdSwShjXEfuwuY4DeNMk
public
contract
1,716,214,072,811
will-a-category-3-or-greater-hurric-f7bebc1ae65b
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
Will a Category 3 or greater hurricane make landfall in Florida during 2024?
null
0.644259
28.149835
NO
null
6pxn30dzi53
false
B8PYL9aUt5Qluab7SnVP2sCgs082
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "E2hz6YIHpWeS6mQtBAssod0CqnE2", "label": "MathiasBonde", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "menti...
Elliot Davies
ZFoP4zq9qSOjsuOtkacm
public
contract
1,716,214,174,541
will-i-bench-70kg-and-squat-100kg-b
ElliotDavies
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Na22pX-P2VyNzHlR-YpR-bxfSxgHSK2mal8XsGg=s96-c
Will I bench 70kg and squat 100kg by EOY 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
99b0vgnef6w
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What does deplete mean? As in exhaust? or does just a small reduction with lots remaining satisfy \"deplete\"?", "type": "text" } ...
Christopher Randles
QQEcOby621iKUKK39rIY
public
contract
1,716,214,617,459
will-global-co2-emissions-in-2024-d
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
Will global CO2 emissions in 2024 deplete the remaining carbon budget to limit warming to 1.5°C?
null
null
null
null
null
y82rx9hxdkn
false
y6JDCLHkILQbDXx9nT1ynpqYrah1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "Wx3iu5xJgMTRw6GN9h2lxo4wSn23", "label": "dp", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Jonathan Mannhart
LMRf1dV5mhe79YTLT16v
public
contract
1,716,214,740,775
will-openais-superalignment-team-pu
JonathanMannhart
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxa--feKoQP6sWVkCVS8Cp6cla-9lPsaTBVN1RDN=s96-c
Will OpenAI's Superalignment team publish any paper towards its goal in 2024?
z7ugnh5aiom
0.017952
2,275.777737
NO
null
lwb5fx2zgdf
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "label": "SG", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Ziddletwix
9VylTrSkET6i6XZR5qmk
public
contract
1,716,214,775,341
how-many-markets-will-be-created-ma
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
How many markets will be created May 17th - 19th?
null
null
4,589.577537
NO
fba6ae5544c9
c8bcdxvyxt9
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "bump", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
5NIRh4RcEgq5XOHuZ0Il
public
contract
1,716,214,778,540
will-the-international-criminal-cou-2197ccca6c2d
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu by the end of July 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
oucx7xy8cxg
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "bump", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
PuRCWFIi6gxMijOuRHPo
public
contract
1,716,214,783,993
will-the-international-criminal-cou-3572841109f7
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu by the end of 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
tc54whxyfi
false
yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2", "label": "traders", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
EBurk
BWt4KSHUYcMy3PiyCZ3r
public
contract
1,716,214,871,448
what-will-be-true-of-the-xkcd-on-mo-b304c077ff7b
EBurk
https://firebasestorage.…0e3-2fdb94d99bad
What will be true of the xkcd on Monday, May 20th, 2024?
null
null
249.308412
NO
09b42c080089
mityknk39g
false
ojCb5qmjfxMGv13gBbFW6sum22v1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "lymbrel2efb", "label": "DismalScientist", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" },...
Abil Abraham
Jj5MTXSjQY9FMXEauHdA
public
contract
1,716,214,952,833
will-there-be-a-second-season-of-mr
AbilAbraham2816
https://firebasestorage.…95f-f91ad5dc1346
Will there be a second season of Mr. and Mrs. Smith (TV series)?
div20zeeogd
0.74
141.341978
YES
null
snn2g4rbwk
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "LOL RIP misread this question as total points, not PPG. oops", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type...
Ziddletwix
qZKRrfGFgpfmnhI9Dilc
public
contract
1,716,215,125,515
who-will-be-the-leading-scorer-in-t
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Who will be the leading scorer in the 2nd round of the NBA playoffs?
null
null
526.728967
YES
8a80cf7f17f0
4xn8qdttpyv
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Annual number is typically quite close to March of same year number. March 2024 was 425.38 but that isn't guaranteed. Do your own research ;)", ...
Christopher Randles
gPd4NxDae3SBx6DXqODN
public
contract
1,716,215,289,655
what-will-be-the-mean-annual-co2-le-0cbb8ede7c64
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
What will be the mean annual CO2 level in 2024?
null
0.499934
113.605267
YES
null
pt9oi2vphg
false
kdGYA9EW5ecVYSsswFGv2L1Hxze2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "c20ok31gx3u", "label": "GreyBox", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Grey Box
lIPfXkKmARWr9Vkdlvta
public
contract
1,716,215,301,683
asian-stock-nifty-3-how-will-each-o-819a04f85ba4
GreyBox
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcgcLF6_hQzuAGLru0yBQSqgd02HTNIqX1dO_RW6M3v=s96-c
Asian Stock (Nifty + 3): How Will Each Of The Indian Indices Close On May 21 Compared To Its Close On May 20?
c20ok31gx3u
null
null
null
null
ulqqjgyggee
false
UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
Blomfilter
0jB0vUGNhA0vkZpPlolX
public
contract
1,716,215,702,572
will-linda-yaccarino-still-be-the-c
Blomfilter
https://firebasestorage.…45c-6f0fb44c4e70
Will Linda Yaccarino still be the CEO of Twitter by the end of 2024?
null
0.685539
570.456645
YES
null
t548pydslc
false
RabL4fATYvdJfRO7qYkwoFyZWYq2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "eHQRYIgdvQdFvS4WroVyDYmhHW33", "label": "SamForbes", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention"...
Arky
8wxlPv5QmypZ0gvaRgfF
public
contract
1,716,215,957,908
will-barack-obama-make-12-or-more-t-52feae291df2
Arky
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQN_M4pd9jLZ5rJw6o8dYiJLjJ8C33gC5taqyV8YKL07o=s96-c
Will Barack Obama make 12 or more Twitter(X) posts in May 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
7kn2mavpsjv
false
PnJEXKhw7HSN9mFQo8rwSP9E7F63
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Seems as if should resolve to yes?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
0xSMW
QXTIGBGOFKw9iExIgkLH
public
contract
1,716,216,194,629
is-gpt2chatbot-gpt4s-successor
0xSMW
https://firebasestorage.…3a9-c48b1a251e30
Is "gpt2-chatbot" GPT-4's Successor?
null
null
null
null
null
ajmrjlbafgc
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
Ziddletwix
dmhV65yEOJGWLBgm2qPL
public
contract
1,716,216,216,235
how-many-views-will-mr-beasts-ages
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
How many views will Mr Beast's "Ages 1 - 100 Decide Who Wins $250,000" video have after 1 month?
null
null
495.352633
YES
87500196f7ee
z9a6vriow2p
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "unban request happening this week apparently", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
9hLrkFyJQ61eKgciDRDE
public
contract
1,716,216,396,703
will-destiny-stream-on-twitch-again-9963c89fbd39
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Destiny stream on Twitch again before the end of 2025?
null
null
null
null
null
pv6xlvytcg8
false
NpMMO5jy1BajObWxUgg9Nk5Wstg1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The team disbanded because they succeeded.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Teddy Weverka
CRNIlkQqEkYyCwpVNGQC
public
contract
1,716,216,834,872
will-superalignment-succeed
TeddyWeverka
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYs8wz6ugEqvtxofXIdn-8Bg2zz_nRePvJR5pGuVw=s96-c
Will Superalignment succeed? (self assessment)
null
0
0
NO
null
34ytr55i4pg
false
Nf9JCMARj8cSrQTdpN9z5JMikSJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ct787fcumt5", "label": "jbjonas", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Lambda Fairy
toUrV56jwIQq25F9tDox
public
contract
1,716,216,921,536
daily-coinflip-6344976df279
tfae
https://firebasestorage.…ddb-10ca8d6fc3c7
Daily coinflip
8nc1qijkfsm
1
6.313507
NO
null
f4ncbxnzxcq
false
Nf9JCMARj8cSrQTdpN9z5JMikSJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Related: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { ...
Lambda Fairy
QNH4iBrVw4mRoymoUzXX
public
contract
1,716,216,947,971
will-wonderful-precure-introduce-a
tfae
https://firebasestorage.…ddb-10ca8d6fc3c7
Will Wonderful Precure introduce a third major male Cure?
null
null
null
null
null
u9bcqeaxkra
true
EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "🚨 The match between Sandefjord and Viking in the Eliteserien is starting in less than 5 minutes! 🏟️", "type": "text" } ], ...
Franklin Baldo
B4nhhrR5N2Ni8yLJDoqW
public
contract
1,716,217,139,898
will-home-team-win-may-20-2024-matc
FranklinBaldo
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c
Will home team win? (May 20, 2024 matches) ⚽🏟️
null
null
449.848484
NO
089853e8d149
kv7htc12ips
false
T8NlrAJopwPEGVtYNT632dG1T9w1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Still no additional mentions?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Tony Gao
Da0Wlz1UxiugcclBMeGp
public
contract
1,716,217,299,725
how-many-times-in-2024-will-my-girl
TonyGao
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIpLUZiDF36FdJMiy0qk-FYuQsmXeN1d4n7tfVFMp7ZDbs=s96-c
How many times in 2024 will my girlfriend’s mom tease me about attending manifest instead of going on a family trip
null
null
14.097458
YES
ce1efac2339c
b0l38xehj2e
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "nfivmb3wzu", "label": "KongoLandwalker", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Christopher Randles
vHgWjP8xwUXXOdlBM4wq
public
contract
1,716,217,434,851
simultaneouspredictor-chess-will-wh
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
Manifold plays simultaneous predictor chess, will white win?
6vdvc8q5ct6
0.54997
128.792262
YES
null
oce6hlhpr
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "PJPO3T2HgVNTf7QWO6AIKRWcQO42", "label": "EzraBrodey", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention...
Ziddletwix
1nza8abJJBefW4NzSdLu
public
contract
1,716,217,478,691
apple-vision-pro-over-1-billion-in
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Apple Vision Pro: Over $1 billion in sales Q1 2024?
null
0.184017
1,651.723591
NO
null
oppif6v5cd
false
B8PYL9aUt5Qluab7SnVP2sCgs082
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "GPT-4o gives low odds that this goes through: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, ...
Elliot Davies
H9P08MvGEMeWUbR1Us46
public
contract
1,716,217,492,073
metaculus-will-the-international-cr
ElliotDavies
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Na22pX-P2VyNzHlR-YpR-bxfSxgHSK2mal8XsGg=s96-c
[Metaculus] Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026?
null
0.72
286.945475
YES
null
btpfl1h9sh7
false
OcQJOdj0RPRna74hkfLfB6QL2dC2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "3je9xojp3s8", "label": "ChristopherRandles", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Caleb Biddulph
gHX6Me3TFesloZBGcOJW
public
contract
1,716,217,540,500
for-how-many-consecutive-days-will
CDBiddulph
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJfnooldvqsfyLB7ZRjdJceJURCVsUcLn8Ir7VvJneRY2A=s96-c
For how many consecutive days will anyone trade in this market?
3je9xojp3s8
null
null
null
null
e28xx369iqq
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
Ziddletwix
4IJGl131RjrmU4Npipbf
public
contract
1,716,217,879,579
in-which-season-will-i-finish-below-d6f635dab212
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
In which season will I finish below first place for the first time?
null
null
null
null
null
l1siz5zxht
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "pv6xlvytcg8", "label": "TeddyWeverka", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Joshua
CRNIlkQqEkYyCwpVNGQC
public
contract
1,716,217,889,593
will-superalignment-succeed
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Will Superalignment succeed? (self assessment)
pv6xlvytcg8
0
0
YES
null
21x27dc2cbs
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Voluntarily or because one lives in rural Laos?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,716,218,035,785
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
null
null
2.759356
YES
16df8c8459d1
o2d1dw1i73
false
GT0mk4hhaShtv3Q8rRnBqBulFcD2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "8thlxn8px3v", "label": "jacksonpolack", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Paul Crowley
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
public
contract
1,716,218,122,188
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
PaulCrowley
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZuco7y9b1_mQq46_bGZ98J61suu_S_IDQzyxSFSidAg=s96-c
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
dzq52r85udn
0.711044
185.00068
YES
null
cz8fgmnreai
false
7L0vEaY5mghx33qU9XQBwXg25x73
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ikpnvr5vv0n", "label": "JoshuaWilkes", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ponti Min
4WL4L1PCdgzlLOwGRAjQ
public
contract
1,716,218,204,446
will-ukraine-bring-a-fifth-generati-f3b7e9ff69f7
PontiMin
https://firebasestorage.…f96-5cea3ea8064d
Will Ukraine bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?
4si1rwl9ghu
null
null
null
null
67wj5108jav
false
fipk5wy5jmOnlqbI1pDXyHbwvxt2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "34v1wzyngsz", "label": "DavidPennock", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
David Pennock
JFNosxNG9enJhC7gAtA9
public
contract
1,716,218,313,007
musk-v-mosk-is-tesla-an-enronstyle
DavidPennock
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GigaxwyNC7CJGK05wkscUAcW9fbTCZOiRPQ6V_ZVw=s96-c
Musk v Mosk: Is Tesla an Enron-style fraud?
kplxs5binf
0.138119
10.183766
NO
null
mliqnbih7g
false
yP4WnnjIbdOE0S6hqV16S73SEZn1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "82pvm2zombl", "label": "perlso59320", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Akram Choudhary
RxR5grRyVrDm0wtzhAuM
public
contract
1,716,218,379,061
will-gpt5-be-released-before-2025
AkramChoudhary
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJmLUNV-ZyFl4jWBLcrXnMpM3Tu1DVZRLfL29nkbe-K=s96-c
Will GPT-5 be released before 2025?
82pvm2zombl
null
null
null
null
nqmtgh2pnfg
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "psry0dp1d8cyGm0zZnjShUMNL8U2", "label": "HunterHanks", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mentio...
Ziddletwix
jR3n6UXQ7VCJcc1t2vng
public
contract
1,716,218,455,463
will-manchester-united-finish-in-th
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will Manchester United finish in the top half of the table in the 2023/24 Premier League season?
null
0.988108
5.229032
YES
null
lx5w7fmz4ze
false
P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hofqn3ff49f", "label": "Bayesian", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Martin Modrák
pYt4bP3lsTeazpY0rNSl
public
contract
1,716,218,638,949
bayesian-change-my-mind-megamarket
MartinModrak
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7HFP_PK_TNWTfx75ktiZyS7SJm0vXCF_lL54T-BA=s96-c
Change My Mind - @Bayesian's Megamarket
afxq2u2if6a
null
5.032112
YES
b7d9c4a65446
josjmq2r0te
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "bump", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
4d3ppn6UERiIa701gqQz
public
contract
1,716,218,696,465
who-will-be-the-next-ceo-of-faceboo
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Who will be the next CEO of Facebook after Mark Zuckerberg?
null
null
null
null
null
kyuda0l6la
false
NiiLeUCCgVZygGyO9fV60N8rUgp2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "update 5/20 still waitlist ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
peppapig69
rhG8XpQMBYReut5LoZZD
public
contract
1,716,218,892,241
will-i-get-into-uf-sstp
meth124
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKohcNIxQT_OOV-qB7OTv2f5M2bUckPX89OHWlyG1GstUI=s96-c
Will I get into UF SSTP?
null
0.59
61.215347
YES
null
5seelr6whzi
false
JCN5ptf5GGdFaakgcnJ4TPZa0no2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "o2d1dw1i73", "label": "PaulCrowley", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
gpt_news_headlines
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
public
contract
1,716,219,150,400
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
gpt_news_headlines
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fgpt_news_headlines%2FkldFg_g8xa.07?alt=media&token=18eba95e-67d2-4e1f-9539-5d194eb20ba1
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
dzq52r85udn
0.711044
1,484.804589
YES
null
02mn5hz3ahdg
false
JCN5ptf5GGdFaakgcnJ4TPZa0no2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "5seelr6whzi", "label": "gpt_news_headlines", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
gpt_news_headlines
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
public
contract
1,716,219,204,386
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
gpt_news_headlines
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fgpt_news_headlines%2FkldFg_g8xa.07?alt=media&token=18eba95e-67d2-4e1f-9539-5d194eb20ba1
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
dzq52r85udn
0.711044
1,484.804589
YES
null
bmh34bdc4uw
false
6CwPIJrQdNMswo07A0R19YILp363
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "y0gv2h48rx", "label": "gpt_news_headlines", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
James Baker
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
public
contract
1,716,219,221,170
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
JamesBaker3
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJIXXxq4jvmFQ8maL0xWNL0ga_m0OYY3WdNuv58HzdcwdI=s96-c
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
y0gv2h48rx
null
null
null
null
sfbh91yfzno
false
JCN5ptf5GGdFaakgcnJ4TPZa0no2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "bmh34bdc4uw", "label": "JamesBakerc884", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
gpt_news_headlines
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
public
contract
1,716,219,269,189
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
gpt_news_headlines
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fgpt_news_headlines%2FkldFg_g8xa.07?alt=media&token=18eba95e-67d2-4e1f-9539-5d194eb20ba1
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
y0gv2h48rx
0.711044
1,484.804589
YES
null
zmqcbydvb4
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "6d5hlyqoixm", "label": "Quroe", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
chris (strutheo)
VVvOLY5rCtX6beOpO1VA
public
contract
1,716,219,395,242
memefold-financial-which-strange-hi
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
MemeFold Financial: Which strange, high risk investment will yield the greatest return by EOY? [COMMENT IDEAS]
6d5hlyqoixm
null
210.509674
NO
4025cc09c80a
rf6jenqnjks
false
GT0mk4hhaShtv3Q8rRnBqBulFcD2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "02mn5hz3ahdg", "label": "gpt_news_headlines", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Paul Crowley
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
public
contract
1,716,219,428,311
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
PaulCrowley
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZuco7y9b1_mQq46_bGZ98J61suu_S_IDQzyxSFSidAg=s96-c
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
dzq52r85udn
0.711044
185.00068
YES
null
k602j4hp1r
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
chris (strutheo)
IfBfOYfAbu8u0Tlir6uJ
public
contract
1,716,219,492,834
what-will-be-the-overall-roi-of-my-388c53ed4654
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
What will be the overall ROI of the CoolFold Financial Portfolio after 6 months?
null
null
null
null
null
ik10cjmhtu9
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
chris (strutheo)
AuVRc8mAIU68fbiAj31m
public
contract
1,716,219,501,237
will-my-coolfold-financial-portfoli
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will the CoolFold Financial Portfolio outperform the S&P 500 over the next 6 months?
null
null
null
null
null
in2bkvdv9d
false
xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "b5a3UuCvBgMsA875HdcgdnVljdq1", "label": "MugaSofer", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention"...
Soli ꩜
Lg3p94BIaroWP5A0c0Sf
public
contract
1,716,219,737,626
is-this-real-gpt45
Soli
https://firebasestorage.…8d8-036e569a957f
Is gpt2-chatbot OpenAI's next-generation model (e.g. GPT-4.5, GPT-5, etc.)
9rbjp6hvatd
0.197797
0
YES
null
fzp6wydbb7t
false
JCN5ptf5GGdFaakgcnJ4TPZa0no2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "rf6jenqnjks", "label": "PaulCrowley", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
gpt_news_headlines
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
public
contract
1,716,219,823,556
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
gpt_news_headlines
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fgpt_news_headlines%2FkldFg_g8xa.07?alt=media&token=18eba95e-67d2-4e1f-9539-5d194eb20ba1
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
dzq52r85udn
0.669866
1,484.804589
YES
null
4r9poz5l1dw
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If Daniel receives some monetary compensation, or part of the equity, but not all of it, or not all of the equity he thought he was entitled to but leg...
Bayesian
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
public
contract
1,716,219,844,746
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…a41-dbd2866cd47c
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
null
0.669866
150.34253
NO
null
56xz9n2435k
false
JCN5ptf5GGdFaakgcnJ4TPZa0no2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "fzp6wydbb7t", "label": "gpt_news_headlines", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
gpt_news_headlines
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
public
contract
1,716,219,952,347
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
gpt_news_headlines
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fgpt_news_headlines%2FkldFg_g8xa.07?alt=media&token=18eba95e-67d2-4e1f-9539-5d194eb20ba1
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
dzq52r85udn
0.669866
1,484.804589
YES
null
483r2eq8q0t
false
b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "can we resolve?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Marcus Abramovitch
BFyHNBLWv5H8UiH34Zi3
public
contract
1,716,220,153,527
will-ron-desantis-win-at-least-five
MarcusAbramovitch
https://firebasestorage.…9a5-f31d5ed47031
Will Ron DeSantis win at least five states in the Republican primaries?
null
0.001755
10,028.270782
NO
null
dc4xrpaco5o
false
3jy90F2LW0dU5MLpTP8k5vOhVr42
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "How do we know the 85% wasn’t just the amount of unvested equity?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], ...
Alexander Campbell
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
public
contract
1,716,220,203,169
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
AlexanderLeCampbell
https://storage.googleap…TP8k5vOhVr42.png
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
null
0.669866
2.191935
NO
null
hxv7d4hpv4i
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This would surprise me given that Wikipedia very much does not present the US in a good light, all the horrible things that have been done are open for...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
sz27szZN1a5BdWC3Hajk
public
contract
1,716,220,260,873
what-conspiracy-theories-not-includ
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
What conspiracy theories not included in the linked market will be proven true by 2100?
null
null
18.844184
NO
ce57ed3b7449
jdxlxmlu1kt
false
GT0mk4hhaShtv3Q8rRnBqBulFcD2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "56xz9n2435k", "label": "gpt_news_headlines", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Paul Crowley
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
public
contract
1,716,220,412,503
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
PaulCrowley
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZuco7y9b1_mQq46_bGZ98J61suu_S_IDQzyxSFSidAg=s96-c
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
dzq52r85udn
0.669866
185.00068
YES
null
wwyesdn18l
false
GT0mk4hhaShtv3Q8rRnBqBulFcD2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "sfbh91yfzno", "label": "gpt_news_headlines", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Paul Crowley
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
public
contract
1,716,220,428,237
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
PaulCrowley
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZuco7y9b1_mQq46_bGZ98J61suu_S_IDQzyxSFSidAg=s96-c
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
y0gv2h48rx
0.669866
185.00068
YES
null
c3eu5gdcn6d
false
JCN5ptf5GGdFaakgcnJ4TPZa0no2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "dc4xrpaco5o", "label": "AlexanderLeCampbell", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
gpt_news_headlines
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
public
contract
1,716,220,431,263
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
gpt_news_headlines
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fgpt_news_headlines%2FkldFg_g8xa.07?alt=media&token=18eba95e-67d2-4e1f-9539-5d194eb20ba1
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
dc4xrpaco5o
0.669866
1,484.804589
YES
null
rn39ne8gf3i
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What if US forces leave ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ ...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
E72KgRNwsxQnq0cepLCs
public
contract
1,716,220,494,679
will-isis-cease-to-exist-once-us-fo
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Will "'ISIS' cease to exist" "once [US forces are] gone" from Syria and Iraq?
null
null
null
null
null
jdzvhhnaxlm
false
sPpfHARKOpNszafweIGE5LLOHAF2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I am glad to inform you that a very famous online casino site has been opened in Bangladesh - ", "type": "text" }, { ...
Locna Broa
teYf7RzLrI1ZsgbrDs6I
public
contract
1,716,220,508,581
will-a-motion-to-vacate-the-chair-o
LocnaBroa
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK5iff64jM6_i33E0Pd_d8LZsZg7Wjdx5o3W7tU7x4tPg=s96-c
Will a motion to vacate the chair of the U.S. House of Representatives be filed before the end of 2040?
null
null
null
null
null
ehy2t2u7nw
false
JCN5ptf5GGdFaakgcnJ4TPZa0no2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "4r9poz5l1dw", "label": "Bayesian", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
gpt_news_headlines
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
public
contract
1,716,220,531,179
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
gpt_news_headlines
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fgpt_news_headlines%2FkldFg_g8xa.07?alt=media&token=18eba95e-67d2-4e1f-9539-5d194eb20ba1
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
4r9poz5l1dw
0.669866
1,484.804589
YES
null
dcu85aihkmo
false
UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "brcx8o1wpkr", "label": "MathiasGilje", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
ClubmasterTransparent
RscL7G0kseDHjjoAe2eo
public
contract
1,716,220,564,610
will-elon-musk-endorse-trump-for-pr
ClubmasterTransparent
https://firebasestorage.…448-76c2f1fcfeee
Will Elon Musk endorse Donald Trump for president?
brcx8o1wpkr
0.28
156.365868
YES
null
ugbe0fse1e
false
UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "brcx8o1wpkr", "label": "MathiasGilje", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
ClubmasterTransparent
RscL7G0kseDHjjoAe2eo
public
contract
1,716,220,719,084
will-elon-musk-endorse-trump-for-pr
ClubmasterTransparent
https://firebasestorage.…448-76c2f1fcfeee
Will Elon Musk endorse Donald Trump for president?
brcx8o1wpkr
0.28
156.365868
YES
null
szv5u8c2dw
false
GT0mk4hhaShtv3Q8rRnBqBulFcD2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "pvzeccc9uoi", "label": "gpt_news_headlines", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Paul Crowley
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
public
contract
1,716,220,762,899
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
PaulCrowley
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZuco7y9b1_mQq46_bGZ98J61suu_S_IDQzyxSFSidAg=s96-c
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
pvzeccc9uoi
0.669866
185.00068
YES
null
fs0524sruva
false
JCN5ptf5GGdFaakgcnJ4TPZa0no2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "jdxlxmlu1kt", "label": "PaulCrowley", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
gpt_news_headlines
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
public
contract
1,716,220,765,515
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
gpt_news_headlines
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fgpt_news_headlines%2FkldFg_g8xa.07?alt=media&token=18eba95e-67d2-4e1f-9539-5d194eb20ba1
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
dzq52r85udn
0.669866
1,484.804589
YES
null
dkkbitj0gh4
false
GT0mk4hhaShtv3Q8rRnBqBulFcD2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "dc4xrpaco5o", "label": "AlexanderLeCampbell", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Paul Crowley
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
public
contract
1,716,220,969,052
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
PaulCrowley
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZuco7y9b1_mQq46_bGZ98J61suu_S_IDQzyxSFSidAg=s96-c
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
dc4xrpaco5o
0.669866
185.00068
YES
null
4kx8t8ny428
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "bAaEkYUZ7aRDTFXVae420yZC3Uf2", "label": "JeremyGillen", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "menti...
Bayesian
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
public
contract
1,716,221,109,714
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…a41-dbd2866cd47c
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
null
null
null
null
null
ww8rdvgheon
false
GT0mk4hhaShtv3Q8rRnBqBulFcD2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "4r9poz5l1dw", "label": "Bayesian", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Paul Crowley
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
public
contract
1,716,221,152,651
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
PaulCrowley
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZuco7y9b1_mQq46_bGZ98J61suu_S_IDQzyxSFSidAg=s96-c
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
4r9poz5l1dw
null
null
null
null
x3501xd1o8
false
GT0mk4hhaShtv3Q8rRnBqBulFcD2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "fs0524sruva", "label": "gpt_news_headlines", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Paul Crowley
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
public
contract
1,716,221,152,689
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
PaulCrowley
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZuco7y9b1_mQq46_bGZ98J61suu_S_IDQzyxSFSidAg=s96-c
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
dzq52r85udn
null
null
null
null
p76rrdx0jw
false
GT0mk4hhaShtv3Q8rRnBqBulFcD2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "fs0524sruva", "label": "gpt_news_headlines", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Paul Crowley
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
public
contract
1,716,221,226,740
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
PaulCrowley
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZuco7y9b1_mQq46_bGZ98J61suu_S_IDQzyxSFSidAg=s96-c
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
dzq52r85udn
null
null
null
null
zsy42u1e9rh
false
iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Resolving YES ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { ...
Niko
yCmGO6lTmqjLd8wrVGaa
public
contract
1,716,221,228,793
will-red-lobster-file-for-bankruptc-c60d3967f150
Moscow25
https://firebasestorage.…c7e-93270a85b3ad
Will Red Lobster file for bankruptcy protection by June 1st 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
e5q8mxw6e9c
false
JCN5ptf5GGdFaakgcnJ4TPZa0no2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "dkkbitj0gh4", "label": "PaulCrowley", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
gpt_news_headlines
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
public
contract
1,716,221,322,938
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
gpt_news_headlines
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fgpt_news_headlines%2FkldFg_g8xa.07?alt=media&token=18eba95e-67d2-4e1f-9539-5d194eb20ba1
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
dc4xrpaco5o
null
null
null
null
7pvydzmewmj
false
NpMMO5jy1BajObWxUgg9Nk5Wstg1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "l1siz5zxht", "label": "Joshua", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
Teddy Weverka
CRNIlkQqEkYyCwpVNGQC
public
contract
1,716,221,337,053
will-superalignment-succeed
TeddyWeverka
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYs8wz6ugEqvtxofXIdn-8Bg2zz_nRePvJR5pGuVw=s96-c
Will Superalignment succeed? (self assessment)
pv6xlvytcg8
null
null
null
null
7nk80xj73kv
false
JCN5ptf5GGdFaakgcnJ4TPZa0no2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Let me be very clear - Daniel ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [...
gpt_news_headlines
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
public
contract
1,716,221,555,599
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
gpt_news_headlines
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fgpt_news_headlines%2FkldFg_g8xa.07?alt=media&token=18eba95e-67d2-4e1f-9539-5d194eb20ba1
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
null
null
null
null
null
fev2qerbuzi
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "lx5w7fmz4ze", "label": "MartinModrak", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Bayesian
pYt4bP3lsTeazpY0rNSl
public
contract
1,716,222,101,885
bayesian-change-my-mind-megamarket
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…a41-dbd2866cd47c
Change My Mind - @Bayesian's Megamarket
afxq2u2if6a
null
null
null
null
yo65xt06vi
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "manifold lagging a lot to me, sorry if that went through way later than expected", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph...
Bayesian
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
public
contract
1,716,222,265,680
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…a41-dbd2866cd47c
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
4kx8t8ny428
null
null
null
null
mw9zlkzxwr
false
GT0mk4hhaShtv3Q8rRnBqBulFcD2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "7nk80xj73kv", "label": "gpt_news_headlines", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Paul Crowley
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
public
contract
1,716,222,297,664
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
PaulCrowley
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZuco7y9b1_mQq46_bGZ98J61suu_S_IDQzyxSFSidAg=s96-c
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
7nk80xj73kv
null
null
null
null
ho9enu963je
false
9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "b0l38xehj2e", "label": "ChristopherRandles", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Kongo Landwalker
vHgWjP8xwUXXOdlBM4wq
public
contract
1,716,222,442,195
simultaneouspredictor-chess-will-wh
KongoLandwalker
https://firebasestorage.…335-755c19fad97f
Manifold plays simultaneous predictor chess, will white win?
6vdvc8q5ct6
null
null
null
null
se7x2rmlrto
false
JCN5ptf5GGdFaakgcnJ4TPZa0no2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Sorry, didn't mean to come off as FUD. I sincerely thought given your comments below that you were unclear on this.", "type": "text" ...
gpt_news_headlines
WniqmZSD5cN6z9542P7Z
public
contract
1,716,222,454,480
will-daniel-kokotajlo-get-back-the
gpt_news_headlines
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fgpt_news_headlines%2FkldFg_g8xa.07?alt=media&token=18eba95e-67d2-4e1f-9539-5d194eb20ba1
Will Daniel Kokotajlo get back the equity he gave up through not signing an NDA?
7nk80xj73kv
null
null
null
null
End of preview. Expand in Data Studio
README.md exists but content is empty.
Downloads last month
2