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... | Elf | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,720,239,880,468 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | elf | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | fizjvdz27af | 0.447399 | 6,112.091334 | NO | null | |
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... | Timothy Johnson | PXd5l5qBVArJrSYZhivM | public | contract | 1,720,239,953,165 | will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba | TimothyJohnson5c16 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c | Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan? | mlvzo55b27c | 0.280089 | 3,102.740197 | YES | null |
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... | Nathan Wei | jdL9zAcMqcRbQ9eG0feK | public | contract | 1,720,240,070,927 | will-there-be-an-israelhamas-ceasef-d3f8fdf3f6e4 | nathanwei | Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced before the end of July 6th? | null | 0.033617 | 3,426.340958 | NO | null | |
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} | Isaac King | I2QV2GNh5HFMoE1Piek4 | public | contract | 1,720,241,022,976 | by-april-2025-theres-an-ai-that-mil | IsaacKing | By April 2025, will there be an AI that at least 1 million people trust for medical advice? | 9b3w4wm4q0b | 0.7 | 88.044366 | NO | null | |
3jqhtf172f3 | false | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | {
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} | Isaac King | Otle2VP8pgd9wPxQeuTt | public | contract | 1,720,241,082,208 | will-solar-become-the-primary-sourc | IsaacKing | Will solar become the primary source of electricity in the US before 2040? | vlg4h18o1uf | null | null | null | null | |
e8xgwvxcfth | false | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | {
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"text": "Left/right labels are socially constructed, I'll go by what most people think of each as meaning. Nazis are far-right.",
"type": "text"
... | Isaac King | tmZFLNhhez7wMqsTeCSh | public | contract | 1,720,241,173,088 | will-any-explicitly-leftist-propala | IsaacKing | Will any explicitly leftist, pro-Palastine US organization or individual kill a Jewish person in the US before 2025? | qu0jmxdlk3d | 0.174017 | 55.588235 | NO | null | |
k21nlzil8l | false | I2bVfkY49dQ54suiyzZ2SN15QZA3 | {
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"text": "Resolves NO.",
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],
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}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Kraalnaxx | oztwttoc8v | public | contract | 1,720,241,174,655 | joe-biden-will-drop-out-of-the-2024 | Kraalnaxx | Joe Biden will drop out of the 2024 race for the American presidency by midnight on Friday, July 5th | null | 0.01 | 2,237.367689 | NO | null | |
5ulwyq3pek4 | false | I2bVfkY49dQ54suiyzZ2SN15QZA3 | {
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],
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}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Kraalnaxx | 2nbhhhvh0z | public | contract | 1,720,241,238,512 | will-biden-drop-out-of-the-election-n8n4sact41 | Kraalnaxx | Will Biden drop out of the election during the ABC interview ? | null | 0.01 | 157.285778 | NO | null | |
am16ddgpf8 | false | hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2 | {
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"text": "Stef knows how to game RPS poker, she's seen enough of our shenanigans (good job!)",
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"type": "paragra... | Pat Scott🩴 | wauc7676ia | public | contract | 1,720,241,269,362 | who-will-earn-the-most-mana-at-poke-1ewgjb46fw | Stralor | Who will earn the most mana at poker night? | null | null | null | null | null | |
ienx8ev7nsp | false | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | {
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"text": "Was it a comedy? Certainly seems like it; there was a lot of laughing, much of which was intentional. The people on stage were trying to be funny.",
... | Isaac King | HQGQ1pQMxu6hwco4wGXK | public | contract | 1,720,241,490,269 | prediction-market-romantic-comedy-b | IsaacKing | Prediction market romantic comedy by end of 2024? | twgchb6qs1 | null | null | null | null | |
6tvvwkkad39 | false | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | {
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"text": "Market was intentionally open for live trading. But people adding new answers after it aired wasn't the plan, next time will plan to block adding new a... | Jack | 96tluedrp5 | public | contract | 1,720,241,517,121 | biden-abc-interview-mention-market | jack | Biden ABC interview mention market: which words/phrases will Biden say? | 2nmn8a2ll4k | null | 317.247834 | NO | mxcuj9e2h9 | |
7cloz7gnqi | false | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | {
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"text": "I have not, don't have FaceApp.",
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} | Isaac King | MLUxIKwlPSDNJ3onCcbe | public | contract | 1,720,241,529,694 | if-i-start-identifying-as-a-woman-w | IsaacKing | If I start identifying as a woman, will it bother me? | fe7mjhzpbv | 0.20432 | 0 | NO | null | |
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... | Jack | 96tluedrp5 | public | contract | 1,720,241,561,755 | biden-abc-interview-mention-market | jack | Biden ABC interview mention market: which words/phrases will Biden say? | null | null | 317.247834 | NO | mxcuj9e2h9 | |
d7784co65h | false | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | {
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"text": "Yeah that counts.",
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"type": "doc"
} | Isaac King | 7eKBJxpgwK1qbgOU57J8 | public | contract | 1,720,242,109,288 | will-any-humancreated-structure-bre | IsaacKing | Will any human-created structure break 1km in height before 2035? | 1okmj41uqif | null | null | null | null | |
h5st3zxy4jm | false | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | {
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} | Isaac King | 7eKBJxpgwK1qbgOU57J8 | public | contract | 1,720,242,126,688 | will-any-humancreated-structure-bre | IsaacKing | Will any human-created structure break 1km in height before 2035? | 3l2ecjjc4hm | null | null | null | null | |
txzahgkmnj | false | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | {
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"text": "Only the part above the water.",
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} | Isaac King | 7eKBJxpgwK1qbgOU57J8 | public | contract | 1,720,242,135,020 | will-any-humancreated-structure-bre | IsaacKing | Will any human-created structure break 1km in height before 2035? | 7hjdddobesd | null | null | null | null | |
y11zkfejx7 | false | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | {
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"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | Isaac King | xncfLQOlWM8HzNITMwL4 | public | contract | 1,720,242,220,946 | will-a-nuclear-war-wipe-out-humanit-80eb7515b74e | IsaacKing | Will a nuclear war wipe out humanity by 2030? | op57gbpxl6 | 0.07 | 0 | NO | null | |
ebickmdqztk | false | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | {
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... | jim | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,720,242,310,265 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | jim | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | fizjvdz27af | 0.449364 | 118,331.746935 | NO | null | |
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"l... | Al Quinn | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,720,242,479,339 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | AlQuinn | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp46gOxO4QNQsQ8T4KOcwIwbRQPb2PvzEwr7f8nE=s96-c | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | fizjvdz27af | 0.449364 | 17,706.775136 | NO | null |
gip3u8bwkum | false | APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2 | {
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"l... | JRP | dltrnzcuo8 | public | contract | 1,720,242,504,168 | conditional-on-hurricane-beryl-maki | parhizj | Conditional on Hurricane Beryl making landfall in the United States what intensity will it be at? | null | null | 529.709552 | YES | 1siqhehn3h | |
g2b64b9cnbv | false | 9E9IRkP3cocISKaf9EyoC3EPZHg2 | {
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],
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}
],
"type": "doc"
} | dusty | l3ubjnb6vz | public | contract | 1,720,242,510,049 | will-wang-hongning-get-a-girlfriend | stardust2 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIbVZGqMvxy1yq6xJgCSUCR789Lgb1aMulLxZKUs4nPmsaEWg=s96-c | Will Wang Hongning get a girlfriend in 2024? | null | 0.345001 | 652.121396 | NO | null |
3hjqrw39mf | false | 9E9IRkP3cocISKaf9EyoC3EPZHg2 | {
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"text": "Not even 2025. 2024 🤣 🤣 🤣 ",
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}
],
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}
],
"type": "doc"
} | dusty | l3ubjnb6vz | public | contract | 1,720,242,570,993 | will-wang-hongning-get-a-girlfriend | stardust2 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIbVZGqMvxy1yq6xJgCSUCR789Lgb1aMulLxZKUs4nPmsaEWg=s96-c | Will Wang Hongning get a girlfriend in 2024? | g2b64b9cnbv | 0.345001 | 652.121396 | NO | null |
qmre19u0s2 | false | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | {
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"text": "I may \"n/a\" and/or \"unlist\" this question preemptively if it becomes ... | Isaac King | eHgA4OV8P11rWdVKl5DH | public | contract | 1,720,242,603,927 | in-2040-will-expert-consensus-sugge | IsaacKing | In 2040, will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex? | null | 0.55 | 3,257.034235 | YES | null | |
068tyalxgq85 | false | 6NjgcSqIYqdg4mID9976SHPNLAl2 | {
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"text": "Okay, make it so that I'm 12 dollars richer. I'll give you 10 dollars.",
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}
],
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... | Patrik Cihal | c78lo9vjaa | public | contract | 1,720,242,678,959 | will-anyone-pay-me-to-solve-a-probl | patrik | Will anyone pay me to solve a problem for them? | lp0rw68tvck | null | null | null | null | |
d5ivn6w8bt9 | false | iyI4ppRol9azEs8jg49XiFQ6M5w2 | {
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],
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"type": "doc"
} | Shaw David | b3rne3px6i | public | contract | 1,720,242,842,550 | by-the-end-of-the-year-what-percent | ShawDavid | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK9WQm8YnM400m91ddN5qcqJ9F-U1fbJ6Pa8vwf9REf-NM1eA=s96-c | By the End of the year what percentage of the code on Github will be AI generated? | hu4ucuv6zgu | null | null | null | null |
lxw5g433nof | false | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | {
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"text": "I think that should still count, as long as it's not prohibitively expensive to someone willing to take the legal risk.",
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... | Isaac King | 6ah4GKxsdaUpG4xpAfQi | public | contract | 1,720,242,853,246 | by-the-end-of-2055-will-it-be-possi | IsaacKing | By the end of 2055, will it be possible for a person who was born male to get pregnant and have children normally? | elvpx505z3h | 0.232283 | 508.23822 | YES | null | |
nlb3q89kk6 | false | hPEqASWOExWovWUevORTAyFI7u62 | {
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"text": "Nice lol. I'm gonna decline but that's sufficient to rule out resolution to the first option",
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}
],
"type"... | Ari Zerner | c78lo9vjaa | public | contract | 1,720,243,005,213 | will-anyone-pay-me-to-solve-a-probl | AriZerner | Will anyone pay me to solve a problem for them? | lp0rw68tvck | null | null | null | null | |
uthhf7j16b | false | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | {
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"text": "Here's a market on whether they invoke the \"good conscious\" clause, since I couldn't find one. ",
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}
],
"... | jim | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,720,243,015,423 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | jim | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | fizjvdz27af | 0.451223 | 118,331.746935 | NO | null | |
468a19t460h | false | hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2 | {
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"text": "okay, I've found a formula that is much more accurate. it's more complicated (*sigh* of course it is), but I think it's better. I'll post the full writ... | Pat Scott🩴 | 2l0jx5q7hr | public | contract | 1,720,243,015,889 | inversion-resolutions-what-would-be | Stralor | [Inverting Resolutions] What would be true in a world where Donald Trump wins the election? | 2k6wiz47x | null | 176.470118 | YES | n4tajas3ch | |
zo8xk96wbfm | false | G3LhSYHrymapMN91FqCFhteTKqQ2 | {
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"text": "Grim news, but thanks. Have updated. ",
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],
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} | GM | 8540eochhp | public | contract | 1,720,243,087,024 | reform-uk-won-four-seats-in-the-202-z7il8hkpkn | GtothaM | Reform UK won five seats in the 2024 General Election. When will the first by-election be held in one of those seats? | fda1b0getm6 | null | 577.537924 | YES | mz35gb3kd2 | |
m8bd7lwjn1c | false | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | {
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} | Isaac King | 6XOjpBGJSowEWxz2DSGS | public | contract | 1,720,243,116,268 | in-2035-will-there-be-a-scientific | IsaacKing | In 2035, will there be a scientific consensus that at least 1000 Americans died as a direct result of the Covid vaccine? | tcpfivwm3l | 0.45 | 200.666524 | YES | null | |
f4tygmoz6on | false | G4JTSx4yXAYll9JkJOj0z0qNNBt1 | {
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"text": "Trump ordered an anarchist assassinated",
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}
],
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} | Jessica Evans | sp38okpdic | public | contract | 1,720,243,128,895 | will-a-us-president-order-the-assas | JessicaEvans | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ09N-L0VcH3A2_jFbvwzXuPQH7Z8dtC_qkPe9VUC3kHfs=s96-c | Will a US president order the assassination of any of the following, and get away without criminal charges before 2029? | null | null | 1.957141 | YES | 6utipuy6hm |
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"text": "This one was the trade of the year in prediction markets. Everyone and their mother was convinced Biden was going to stay in. I’m surprised the market ... | Puggy | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,720,243,295,812 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | Puggy | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | null | 0.451223 | 188,218.304559 | NO | null | |
pd1kxsybems | false | 6NjgcSqIYqdg4mID9976SHPNLAl2 | {
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"type": ... | Patrik Cihal | c78lo9vjaa | public | contract | 1,720,243,724,335 | will-anyone-pay-me-to-solve-a-probl | patrik | Will anyone pay me to solve a problem for them? | lp0rw68tvck | null | 426.36742 | NO | yct0gwrwzv | |
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... | Ernie | YjqpVwUZUEo8edmkZfdb | public | contract | 1,720,243,885,151 | in-mid-2024-can-we-pressure-the-bes | Ernie | In mid 2024, can we pressure the best OpenAI LLM to prejudge height by sex? [2 day adjustment] | 9aizik2ons5 | null | null | null | null | |
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"type": "menti... | Niel S | 2hCOFf7W1fk0ehBgT30s | public | contract | 1,720,244,686,172 | manifold-lottery-tickets-10x-return-7e6e94e0hy | NielS | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI1f_-sQy0dE4yU_6hAgPvUVI-PGSnuCHMzFZT5AlSj=s96-c | Manifold lottery tickets 10x return possible | null | 0.09 | 4,741.666667 | NO | null |
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"l... | FairlyRandom | 2hCOFf7W1fk0ehBgT30s | public | contract | 1,720,244,688,455 | manifold-lottery-tickets-10x-return-7e6e94e0hy | FairlyRandom | Manifold lottery tickets 10x return possible | null | null | null | null | null | |
ofnezgv6b4 | true | xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1 | {
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"l... | FairlyRandom | 2hCOFf7W1fk0ehBgT30s | public | contract | 1,720,244,732,497 | manifold-lottery-tickets-10x-return-7e6e94e0hy | FairlyRandom | Manifold lottery tickets 10x return possible | null | null | null | null | null | |
2orzn4ufzut | false | imw6vOMSvhh0I39I27YwzmVBtkP2 | {
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"text": "MuZero wasn’t created by OpenAI so should not resolve to YES yet",
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}
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"... | AshleyHar | Rqb379s1bDpHlwSbNhCK | public | contract | 1,720,245,178,694 | will-an-ai-by-openai-beat-a-super-g | AshleyHart | Will an AI by OpenAI beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028? | ui8s6xbh7nm | 0.527276 | 342.24712 | NO | null | |
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"l... | James | qAfjQeovkKWHcDJNLinV | public | contract | 1,720,245,634,489 | will-i-love-daylight-computer | JamesGrugett | Will I love Daylight Computer? | 7wojp5eg9i | 0.933793 | 128.895225 | YES | null | |
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} | Isaac King | CNZgngRjJaQJmyMIUud7 | public | contract | 1,720,245,646,486 | will-the-world-population-ever-surp | IsaacKing | Will the world population ever surpass 20 billion before 2075? | d3qa7pzeizo | null | null | null | null | |
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} | Numnumduck | 7fk8o90r9c | public | contract | 1,720,246,210,138 | who-will-serve-the-most-aces-in-202 | Numnumduck | Who will serve the most aces in 2024 Wimbledon men’s singles competition? | ab0sohjxkd8 | null | 0 | NO | 1cietynhbu | |
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"lang... | PREDYX | v5unqilzf4 | public | contract | 1,720,246,374,921 | will-bitcoin-go-below-52k-in-july-2 | predyx_markets | Will Bitcoin go below $52K in July 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
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"... | stefanie | qAfjQeovkKWHcDJNLinV | public | contract | 1,720,246,480,532 | will-i-love-daylight-computer | shankypanky | Will I love Daylight Computer? | 7wojp5eg9i | 0.933793 | 1,845.04868 | YES | null | |
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"t... | David Shaw | 55ms5y05an | public | contract | 1,720,246,568,252 | in-what-year-will-humans-have-more | DavidShawe0kg | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocItmdMDbrPaTfBumggdjD9Q9aFi8GM3HDIsijzgZxrD6PYl5PF5=s96-c | In what year will humans have more sex with robots when with other humans | ks8kxe8gai | null | null | null | null |
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"lang... | PREDYX | v5unqilzf4 | public | contract | 1,720,246,583,980 | will-bitcoin-go-below-52k-in-july-2 | predyx_markets | Will Bitcoin go below $52K in July 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
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... | David Shaw | 55ms5y05an | public | contract | 1,720,246,611,780 | in-what-year-will-humans-have-more | DavidShawe0kg | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocItmdMDbrPaTfBumggdjD9Q9aFi8GM3HDIsijzgZxrD6PYl5PF5=s96-c | In what year will humans have more sex with robots when with other humans | null | null | null | null | null |
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"typ... | Soli ꩜ | 5xLP5wHHJuuCzrMSoerr | public | contract | 1,720,247,374,876 | which-of-the-following-games-will-i-028e127c2def | Soli | Which of the following games will I enjoy playing on the PS5? (spend > 10 hours playing in 2024) | null | null | null | null | null | |
ayjd58xuwca | false | je3Tb8xyVoQieRh6wB3bJxDxsFh1 | {
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... | David Shaw | 7lipqur1uk | public | contract | 1,720,247,390,407 | what-will-be-the-reason-cited-the-n | DavidShawe0kg | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocItmdMDbrPaTfBumggdjD9Q9aFi8GM3HDIsijzgZxrD6PYl5PF5=s96-c | What will be the reason cited the next time the doomsday clock moves closer to midnight? | null | null | null | null | null |
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... | JRP | 9m729wwqlm | public | contract | 1,720,247,608,427 | will-hurricane-beryl-make-landfall | parhizj | Will Hurricane Beryl make landfall in Houston or the Greater Houston area? | null | 0.496629 | 38.432686 | NO | null | |
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} | james yorston | m0bUEeM8ZJj0UbSHEyHh | public | contract | 1,720,247,621,622 | will-the-snp-win-more-than-30-of-th | jamesyorston | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL4CM4YXG9OagO2oJNb-TTMn3eDuLQs1GTLwDAFC9kN=s96-c | Will the SNP win more than 30% of the Scottish vote in the next general election | qnjutqklvri | 0.682709 | 16.92842 | NO | null |
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... | David Shaw | 55ms5y05an | public | contract | 1,720,247,777,678 | in-what-year-will-humans-have-more | DavidShawe0kg | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocItmdMDbrPaTfBumggdjD9Q9aFi8GM3HDIsijzgZxrD6PYl5PF5=s96-c | In what year will humans have more sex with robots when with other humans | null | null | null | null | null |
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} | Lion | hl5a2upk88 | public | contract | 1,720,248,287,553 | will-tadej-pogacar-beat-jonas-vinge | Lion | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c | Will Tadej Pogačar beat Jonas Vingegaard in the ITT on Stage 7 of the TdF 2024? | 3r83mbqwrsz | 1 | 76.671895 | YES | null |
4vn1wpda2h6 | false | e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2 | {
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"con... | Timothy Johnson | 6gygkz9jnc | public | contract | 1,720,248,461,196 | how-many-democratic-members-of-cong | TimothyJohnson5c16 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c | How many Democratic members of Congress will call on Biden to step aside by 7/7? | p2ga4a8fd7q | null | 427.830323 | YES | nys6s2490z |
i5z355s21l | false | n9g6oDj4dqgJQyE0P0PBsex1sWI2 | {
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"type": "menti... | Daniel Tilkin | EmUE58x2LeJMeslEkwAl | public | contract | 1,720,248,528,101 | how-many-electoral-college-votes-wi-e4959388eb6f | DanielTilkin | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaD_F3MPbut-et9lJUiLj_dMo5cRkQ70utJs_egAQ=s96-c | How many Electoral College votes will Biden win? | null | null | 269.567319 | YES | f67202aa31 |
8gul5oqpjda | false | 9gBkOzYZQAUG7Mj7EFTFFza0lw22 | {
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... | Jan | qntk2n9mg | public | contract | 1,720,248,600,043 | in-what-year-will-humans-have-more-6yzac3m9aj | Jan53274 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLZcSW6bpjqDQvELRglfn-UDKtyWOEMRwTOdJHuRLELfCA=s96-c | In what year will humans have more sex with robots than with other humans | null | null | null | null | null |
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